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jimtan
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:10 am

So it begins... Canada First...

"Business Council of Canada Supports Bombardier in Boeing Fight"


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... eing-fight
 
jimtan
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Fri Oct 06, 2017 1:07 pm

With a one-two-three punch, this could be the end of speculative fever in CoV...

"Gregor Robertson proposes giving locals 1st shot at new condos

Mayor suggests modelling policy on 2016 agreement in West Vancouver


... In an investigation last year, the Globe and Mail revealed major Vancouver developers were privately selling prebuilt condos to friends and family before offering units up to the general public.

This practice allowed the buyers to reassign their contracts to new purchasers at higher prices before the deal closed.

Earlier this year, the Canadian government began a series of actions in federal court, in a bid to force developers to provide details about buyers who flipped presale contracts before construction was completed."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.4344434
 
jimtan
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Sat Oct 14, 2017 11:57 am

Canada First ...

"Canada moves toward buying Australian fighter jets, upping ante in trade dispute with Boeing"

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/canada-moves- ... 00148.html

Should free trade become less free, this will have negative economic consequences for each country at the macro level. Individual industries may benefit. But, overall productivity will fall and costs will rise. That is, fewer jobs and more inflation!
 
jimtan
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Fri Nov 17, 2017 9:29 am

As our Steve notes, debt is thru the roof...


"Canadian HELOC Debt up 500% since the Year 2000"


http://vancitycondoguide.com/canadian-heloc-debt/



"Canada Accumulating Private Debt Faster Than Any Advanced Economy"


http://vancitycondoguide.com/canada-acc ... vate-debt/

Facts
 
jimtan
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Mon Nov 27, 2017 10:03 pm

As I have pointed out repeatedly, the time will come when the tide will turn. There is now so much anguish that there is a political backlash. The politicians have discovered the will to act.

The first chart shows the dramatic improvement in 2016 housing starts. The Federal and provincial governments are chipping in with 10-year affordability programs. CoV has a new 10-year program

“Vancouver unveils new housing strategy for the next decade
City aims for 72,000 units of housing to be built in next 10 years, two-thirds of which are rental...”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.4416669

After a long period of neglect, the governments are focusing on rental housing. Displacing investors. Some ares may be 'rental housing only'. Affecting land values.

Expect the governments to keep squeezing speculators, airBnB hosts, and other quick buck operators.

“Canada Revenue Agency targets more Vancouver pre-sale condo contracts Telus Garden and One Pacific buyers under federal revenue agency scrutiny  “ 

https://www.biv.com/article/2017/10/can ... ver-pre-s/

The key is to squeeze out the frenzy from the market. That means providing enough housing, and enough rental housing. May change the market dynamics. Finally.
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jimtan
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Thu Dec 14, 2017 4:22 pm

As expected, Trump goes rogue. In areas beyond his competence, he makes high risk bets. The possible consequences are terrifying.

Trump is gambling that the Palestinians will have no sponsors after he buys off the Saudi. Apparently not. There's the Muslim fundamentalists in Turkey and Egypt, As well as Iraq and Iran. Not to forget, the Bangladeshi and the Malay Muslims.

“Turkey's president calls Israel a 'terror' state, says Jerusalem move is 'our red line'

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/13/turkey- ... -line.html


Trump is going to make the Palestinians an offer they can't refuse. Can the Zionists give a fair deal to the Palestinians? What do you think?
 
jimtan
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:29 am

Got a call from my realtor last month. Said that this was the last chance to get a quick sale before the new rules take effect January 1st. No surprise that there would be a svaage backlash from governments when speculation runs wild.


"Vancouver's tough real estate market just got a little tougher

Change comes as Canadians face record-high levels of debt...

... Vancouver real estate agent Chris Ryan says the new rules will hit some local buyers harder than others.

"People who were looking at homes in the 2.5's now are going to be coming down and closer to the 1.9's, and so everyone is going to jump down a bit," Ryan said..."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.4468684


Yes, affordability matters. Remains to be seen where price support comes in.
 
jimtan
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Sun Jan 28, 2018 9:28 am

"Vancouver’s Luxury Real Estate Market Slows As China Curbs Outflows


... China’s capital outflows fell precipitously in 2017. According to a report from Pictet Wealth Management, capital outflows fell by 67% last year from $500B $166B USD. That’s an even bigger drop from peak outflows of $761B USD in 2015..."



http://vancitycondoguide.com/vancouver- ... ket-slows/
 
jimtan
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Wed Feb 07, 2018 6:52 am

"UBCM suggests increase and expansion outside Metro Vancouver of foreign home buyer tax"


https://www.straight.com/news/1027446/u ... -buyer-tax
 
jimtan
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Fri Feb 09, 2018 9:45 am

Huge risk ahead

“Stock and bond markets are doing a strange thing that is reminiscent of the 1987 crash

… Rosenberg cited how bonds rallied during the last financial crisis in 2008 when the market fell and during other big corrections.

"But not this time. This rare occurrence of bond yields rising even as stock markets decline was a feature in 1987 and 1994," he added. "What these periods had in common was Fed tightening concerns, jitters over economic overheating and an ever-flatter yield curve. One of these years had a huge correction and one had massive volatility and rolling corrections. Pick your poison."

In terms of the "huge correction" reference, he is referring to the "Black Monday" stock market crash when the Dow Jones industrial average dropped 23 percent on Oct. 19, 1987...”

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/09/one-str ... -1987.html
 
jimtan
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Thu Jul 26, 2018 1:20 pm

The blow back against foreign buyers continues...

"Chinese developer offers Vancouver buyers first crack at new downtown condo tower"

https://www.straight.com/news/1108121/c ... ondo-tower
 
rofina
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Mon Jul 30, 2018 11:27 am

The blow back against foreign buyers continues...

"Chinese developer offers Vancouver buyers first crack at new downtown condo tower"

https://www.straight.com/news/1108121/c ... ondo-tower
That was a last ditch effort.
This project is on hold and has been pulled for the development review process. 
 
rMBA13
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Tue Jul 31, 2018 7:15 am

Coz apparently local buyers cant afford it

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