This is a friendly, interactive exchange of information on all Real Estate related subjects. Follow on Twitter: @RETALKS


Moderator: admin

 
danny
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Mar 17, 2013 7:55 am
Contact:

Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Wed Sep 03, 2014 9:12 pm

REBGV HPI Greater Vancouver
Aug 2014:
181.9
April 2012:
178.1
+2.1% detached

Teranet
July 2014:
179.2
April 2012:
170.6
+5% on condo, townhouse, detached

Yatter Matters Avg Vancouver (sourced from REBGV)
Aug 2014:
$1,228,226
April 2012:
$1,106,683
+11% detached

In other news, people looking for houses in the past two years are reportedly "not shocked" over this latest development.
 
User avatar
jesse1
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5097
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 12:51 pm
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Wed Sep 03, 2014 10:07 pm

So about at inflation. Add up all the purchases since then, around 80,000 for metro plus all the new units add around another 30-40k on top of that. For a market deemed the least affordable in the country that's a fair amount of turnover.
There is no shame in overpaying
 
danny
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Mar 17, 2013 7:55 am
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Thu Sep 04, 2014 6:48 am

Sounds like a good sample size. Geyser, how do you explain this?
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Thu Sep 04, 2014 10:33 am

Sounds like a good sample size. Geyser, how do you explain this?
At ETB2's request, I quoted only the MLS benchmark prices for SFHs in Greater Vancouver. In fairness, if old numbers weren't frequently revised, they have the potential to be a far more accurate gauge than averages or medians which can be severely misleading. It's unfortunate that MLS has resorted to mathematical alchemy in its method of calculation.

I shouldn't need to explain it all again, but, just for you, here it is:

MLS is known to go back in history and change the numbers, thus creating the impression of a rising market even when it's falling. These tactics have been reported by several sources including MSM and are easy to prove. Just Google "MLS Frankenumber".

The Greater Vancouver Average SFH Benchmark Prices are currently lower than the $1,064,800 reported by MLS back in April 2012, but today that 2012 number has been magically revised down to $963,800 on their system.

I suggest that MLS are the ones who have some explaining to do, not me.

When the Greater Vancouver SFH benchmark hit $1,064,800 in April 2012 it was very widely broadcast at the time. MLS might be able to revise the numbers on their own site but the rest of the Internet never forgets.

Here's what Mac Marketing was saying back in 2012:
The benchmark price for detached properties increased 6.3 per cent from April 2011 to $1,064,800. (in 2012)

http://www.macmarketingsolutions.com/ma ... ring-pace/
And Relocation BC was using the same MLS numbers:
MLS Detached Benchmark Prices
Greater Vancouver $1,064,800 

http://www.relocation2bc.com/blog/2012/ ... -round-up/
So was this Realtor and a whole bunch of others. 
Vancouver and North Shore Real Estate Trends

Bench Mark price for April 2012
Detached (Single Family) Greater Vancouver $1,064,800


http://kevinlynchrealtor.blogspot.ca/20 ... s-for.html
So, once again, the MLS benchmark price for SFHs in Vancouver was higher in 2012 than it is today, provided you check what they actually reported back then rather than the much lower number they are now reporting for 2012.

Still don't believe me?  Just Google "Vancouver, $1,064,800", everybody was trumpeting the new record price at the time.

BTW, ETB2 was whining about me not using the benchmark numbers (he'd probably been fooled by the new, altered version) but when presented with the facts he/she responded with "who cares about the numbers?" whilst continuing to insist they are up. :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Thu Sep 04, 2014 12:52 pm

Here's more evidence of the MLS number games. This poster spotted it when they retroactively reduced the benchmark number to below the $1 million mark, the same bit of sleight of hand which I recently flagged. To his credit he spotted at around the time it happened, I only realized it when I noticed we were approaching the $1 million mark and it occurred to me that I remembered seeing us exceed that level way back in 2012.

Hilarious! There was a big fanfare when it went above $1 million back then, but when the market started slipping, that high number became an embarrassment. No problem, just change it to a lower number and the trend line looks fine again. :lol:

Here's that additional evidence:
Saw this one from Greaterfool.ca (Garth Turner)... makes you wonder whether the drop was 0.5, 2.5 or 9.2%!


"Vancouver’s real estate board is the home of the original Frankenumber, the MLSLink® Housing Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark price, blatantly intended to smooth out peaks and valleys, giving the impression of an eternally stable market. So while the average detached SFH has lost $200,000 in value in recent months, the Frankenumber stays serene. In August, for example, “the decline of 0.5% compared to this time last year and a decline of 1.1% compared to last month.”

Could this be because the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver secretly did an organ transplant when nobody was watching? Well, nobody except for the poster called Canadian Watchdog. “REBGV revised last year’s benchmark prices lower again. I had all their website data copied from earlier this year and sure enough, when I checked today’s detached home price for last August, it was revised below $1M, otherwise it would have posted a 9.2% decline, not -0.5%. It’s useless. They’re doing everything they can to smooth out data before the coming cliff in Q1 2013.”

http://whispersfromtheedgeoftherainfore ... e-for.html
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
danny
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Mar 17, 2013 7:55 am
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Thu Sep 04, 2014 6:50 pm

Average price is obviously volatile, especially when considering monthly timescales and not keeping an eye on seasonality. Over long periods, the trend is useful.

For the 21 months of average prices reported on Yatters Matters between April 2012 and August 2014, 17 monthly average values registered above April 2012 (note that winter months generally missing). For the Detached Greater Vancouver REBGV HPI, 5 came in higher than April 2012 (including last 4 straight), for Vancouver Teranet 14 came in higher (including last 11 straight).

So you are arguing that April 2012 would be higher if it weren't for conspiracy at REBGV. Fine. Doesn't that make the average price trend make even less sense? Would you also suggest these basic averages have also been calculated incorrectly or doctored? How about Teranet - they in on it?

Just admit it, your statements about current prices being lower than the "peak" of April 2012 were wrong. Don't go Taipan on us.
Attachments
Pretty Obvious.JPG
Pretty Obvious.JPG (65.25 KiB) Viewed 6764 times
Last edited by danny on Thu Sep 04, 2014 7:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5515
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Thu Sep 04, 2014 7:03 pm

Just admit it, your statements about current prices being lower than the "peak" of April 2012 were wrong. Don't go Taipan on us.
Bad news. Geezer is worst than Taipan. At least, taipan has the sense to run for it.
Attachments
Trash-on-a-beach-near-the-harbor-Ardglass1.jpg
Trash-on-a-beach-near-the-harbor-Ardglass1.jpg (165.41 KiB) Viewed 6854 times
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Thu Sep 04, 2014 11:21 pm

Okay Danny, this is very tiresome but let me try to explain it to you one more time.

There are various numbers you can look at. Average prices are extremely volatile and are not a reliable indicator. You can see them here:
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html

Median prices are a bit better but still not very reliable. 

The reason MLS decided to go with Benchmark prices is because, in theory, they are much more accurate because they try to directly compare sales of similar homes in the same area.

Unfortunately, the benchmark system does not take into account any renovations, even huge ones. So, if flippers have been busy "putting lipstick on pigs" in a neighbourhood, the benchmark prices can go up even if home values are actually falling.
"Just admit it, your statements about current prices being lower than the "peak" of April 2012 were wrong."
My statement was "the MLS benchmark price for SFHs in Vancouver was higher in 2012 than it is today". That statement is correct.

Now let's review the Greater Vancouver SFH Benchmark numbers in question. Here is what the MLS published on their site:

Aug 2014       $984,300

April 2012.   $1,064,800. (Original number, widely reported at the time)

April 2012.     $963,800   (Revised number)

The fact that the number was revised is not open to question, I told you before that all you have to do is Google "Vancouver $1,064,800" and you will find countless realtor websites that were gleefully parroting the MLS press release about the Greater Vancouver SFH Benchmark price reaching that landmark number. Do you think they were all lying?

As an aside, let's do an amusing little exercise which assumes the "revised" numbers are correct.

The difference between the "revised" 2012 number and today's number is $984,300 - $963,800 which is $20,500. 

Think about that! Even if you accept the revised numbers as true the average benchmark SFH price has only gone up $20,500 in 28 months! That's about break even with inflation.

The difference between renting or paying a mortgage the on same house would likely be about $$2K per month, or $56K over 28 months. Then add the Property Transfer Tax, insurance, annual property tax and any maintenance and you can see the home owner has been loosing money over that time frame. 

Now add the realtor's commission on a $984K sale and it becomes clear that anybody who bought aVancouver SFH in April 2012 and sold it today has lost over $70K. 

The modest price increase would have been more than gobbled up by the realtor's commission alone, and remember, I used their fudged numbers in that example. Now imagine how much worse the losses would have been if the market had been flat or had gone down!

Get it now?

Why are you attempting to defend the indefensible? Did you buy in 2012 or are you trying to bail out of the market right now?

And don't pay any attention to Jimmy, he's bitter because bought a condo too late in the bull market to enjoy any gains and besides, his climate change postings have convincingly demonstrated that he doesn't understand statistics.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
User avatar
thompson2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 317
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 6:37 pm
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:40 am

You can split hair whatever you want, Geyser, all I know the SFH prices are all time high now in Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, and all the way to Mission.
 
reallyreal
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 418
Joined: Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:17 am
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:16 am

Who cares about mission and port coquitlam. :roll: :lol:
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:55 am

You can split hair whatever you want, Geyser, all I know the SFH prices are all time high now in Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, and all the way to Mission.
There are a number of areas which are more expensive now than in they were back when the Greater Vancouver SFH benchmark price reached its peak in 2012 when it briefly went over the million dollar mark. Of course it's hard to know for sure unless you have an independent record of the original (unrevised) benchmark numbers which were published in the past.

Here are some examples, unfortunately the only number which I can be sure is the old unrevised one is the one for Greater Vancouver because that's the only one I could find widely quoted on the Internet. Google "Vancouver $1,064,800 and see all the jubilant reports of that last peak in 2012.

With the exception of the original Vancouver number, all these numbers are still on the MLS system.

                     April 2012.              July 2014.       Gross Loss or Gain
Vancouver       $1,064,800.            $980,500.          $84,300 Loss
Richmond        $1,026,500.            $989,900.          $36,600 Loss
E. Vancouver      $851,800.            $932,000.          $80,200 Gain
Coquitlam.        $708,200.            $751,100.          $42,900 Gain
Ladner.             $632,400.            $648,200.          $15,800 Gain
N. west             $688,100             $691,300.            $3,200 Gain

The best performer has been East Vancouver with an $80,200 gain since April 2012. That's good for them because if you take into account the true full cost of carrying the property, mortgage payments, Property Transfer Tax, Annual Property Tax, insurance, maintenance, Realtor's commission, then you will find that if they sell today they may not have lost money.

Compared to renting the same home, all the other areas 2012 buyers have lost big bucks if they understand how to do the math, which of course most don't.

You trumpeted the example of Coquitlam where the benchmark price of a SFH has risen by $42,900 over the last 28 months. So it's gone up by an average of $1,532 per month, but how much did it cost to carry it when you count all the costs mentioned above? And how much do similar houses rent for in that distant suburb?

I don't think most people really know the true cost of home ownership when they gloat about how much they mistakenly think they've made.

BTW, I'm a "long-term" bull, my wife and I own multiple properties in various jurisdictions and, in most cases, we've done quite nicely from them, but I know what my costs have been and I what my "real" gains have been. I'm a believer in long-term home ownership and land investments, I just like to buy when many others are selling and sell when many others are buying. I reduced my Vancouver holdings back near the peak and I'm very glad I did.

I probably won't add more realestate again because of my age, although I do believe that we are not in a new paradigm and there will be more buying opportunities in the future, after prices do what they have always done and have reverted back to their historical relationship with rents and incomes.

Yeah I know, it's not gonna happen because "it's different this time". :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
danny
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Mar 17, 2013 7:55 am
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Fri Sep 05, 2014 5:40 pm

Average prices are extremely volatile and are not a reliable indicator. You can see them here:
http://www.chpc.biz/vancouver-housing.html
No I can't. I'm not sure what these prices represent but they don't match any stats for Vancouver single family dwellings I've seen. Can you please send the data source?
Last edited by danny on Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
reallyreal
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 418
Joined: Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:17 am
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Fri Sep 05, 2014 7:51 pm

LOL..... danny, open your eyes. It is all right there for you to see. :mrgreen:
 
danny
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Mar 17, 2013 7:55 am
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Fri Sep 05, 2014 8:33 pm

LOL..... danny, open your eyes. It is all right there for you to see. :mrgreen:
Okay, then please simply respond. What is the data source? No, I don't mean the dramatic ad-crazy website URL.
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: Houses more expensive in Vancouver today than April 2012

Sat Sep 06, 2014 1:52 am

Ripley uses average numbers which reveal the extreme volatility of the current market. BTW, that's usually a red flag!

As a nervous recent buyer you would find it less scary to look at the fudged MLS "benchmark" numbers, they are designed to flatten out the peaks and valleys and generally offer a more positive view, and when the real numbers look bad they can simply revise them, then folks like you are happy for a while longer. Enjoy your brief respite before the storm.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests