vancouver home prices 10-20 years from now

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klarke
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vancouver home prices 10-20 years from now

Post by klarke »

what do you think
vanreal
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Re: vancouver home prices 10-20 years from now

Post by vanreal »

who knows. My guess is that a sfh in the city of vancouver proper will range from a low of one million to a high of 10 million depending on size and location. Not too different from what it is now.
fishguy15
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Re: vancouver home prices 10-20 years from now

Post by fishguy15 »

I'm guessing, since RE prices doubled in the last 10 years it will double ten years from now and then double again in 20.
raventalk
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Re: vancouver home prices 10-20 years from now

Post by raventalk »

Princes in ten years will be up by about 20% on detached - so just about the rate of inflation. Condos and attached will be up by around 60% - unless we see a huge increase in supply. As boomers finally begin to give up their homes, downsize and take the equity with them we'll see detached flatten while condo prices go up a bit faster than inflation.

We are NOT going to see a huge crash. The best you can hope for is a 2-3 year drop of about 15%-20% before prices head up again.
eyesthebye
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Re: vancouver home prices 10-20 years from now

Post by eyesthebye »

raventalk wrote:Princes in ten years will be up by about 20% on detached - so just about the rate of inflation. Condos and attached will be up by around 60% - unless we see a huge increase in supply. As boomers finally begin to give up their homes, downsize and take the equity with them we'll see detached flatten while condo prices go up a bit faster than inflation.

We are NOT going to see a huge crash. The best you can hope for is a 2-3 year drop of about 15%-20% before prices head up again.
take note. Raventalk knows his "stuff"
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
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DAB
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Re: vancouver home prices 10-20 years from now

Post by DAB »

definately gonna be up, just a matter of how much. can range from 20% minimum to no upper range. depends on how even more desirable we become but the trend is up.

of course there may be some blips in between.

as i am invested in real estate in the lower mainland for the long term, it doesn't matter to me. up 20% or 100%, it's a place i am living in.

this projection would be of more importance for the bears and anyone sitting on the sidelines waiting....
conurus
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Re: vancouver home prices 10-20 years from now

Post by conurus »

I see it the other way round: up 20% for attached and up 60% detached. If buyers like attached developers will only build more of it limiting the upside potential. For detached, it is always a shrinking supply.
Market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent - John Maynard Keynes
dot com refugee
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Re: vancouver home prices 10-20 years from now

Post by dot com refugee »

Nominal or real? Important distinction due to the time horizon of the question.

My bold predictions for
Nominal: bit higher in ten years, much higher in twenty years.
Real: much lower in ten years, still quite a bit lower in twenty years.
YMMV
sauder graph with both real and nominal
eyesthebye
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Re: vancouver home prices 10-20 years from now

Post by eyesthebye »

conurus wrote:I see it the other way round: up 20% for attached and up 60% detached. If buyers like attached developers will only build more of it limiting the upside potential. For detached, it is always a shrinking supply.
the 20% for detached might be a conservative estimate but it all depends on how we arrive there. I definitely think West and East price gap will close substantially. Right now there's a 2.5x premium for west side. We could arrive at a low 20% gain with west shrinking and east rising. I see a premium of about 1.5x by the time the dust settles.

My prediction for detached (In benchmarks)
east
10 years - 1.1M
20 years - 1.4M

west
(5 years - 1.7M)
10 years - 2M
20 years - 2M

Condo market? I don't see 60% there. Too easy to fill the supply gap with new developments. I think we might see today's prices 20 years from now. I'll say 0% on condo
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
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Re: vancouver home prices 10-20 years from now

Post by ConnorPage »

want to know more
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