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Geyser
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:18 am

:lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Lost Soul
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Thu Dec 12, 2013 2:11 pm

right now I think not
I would never suggest to time markets. Despite the "numbers", BC prices have been rather resilient. I keep a little section of my paper free for the "what if I'm wrong about this" scenario. Turns out it doesn't matter either way.
I agree that, as a general rule, timing markets doesn't work but I guess we can debate what is properly defined as market timing versus playing the odds. I think of market timing as trying to guess the peaks and valleys, something which few if any can do with any consistency. I recently reduced my exposure to Vancouver real estate because I'm happy to risk missing some extra profit rather than attempt to guess the top.

Right now the disconnect between historically normal relationships between incomes/rents/prices is severly distorted and appears to be unsustainable. Your point about timing is well taken, I don't know how much or when the market will correct but I do know it will. The longer the bull run the closer we get to the correction. Also, the further we depart from historically normal ratios, the higher the odds of a bigger correction.

I put those two facts together, add in emergency low interest rates and conclude that the odds of seeing strong equity growth in local real estate are probably much smaller than the odds of seeing a loss - perhaps a big loss. In my mind, because current prices are multiples of the rental cost for a similar property, the only justification for buying today is if you expect large gains in equity.

I may well be wrong but I don't see those large gains occurring in the next few years, a drop in values looks more
likely. But hey, that's just my opinion, everybody else needs to decide for themselves.
This is really rich. Too bad the archives have been deleted showing where others have made this exact same argument only to get pilloried by you as "market timers". How were they any different than you now??? :roll:
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WhipMaster
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Thu Dec 12, 2013 2:19 pm

....because Geyser has always contended that "in the long run, prices will always go up".
So don't take him, and everythin else out of context like you and your Huff~Mates always do.
It's getting tiresome. :mrgreen:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
Geyser
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Thu Dec 12, 2013 3:24 pm

I agree that, as a general rule, timing markets doesn't work but I guess we can debate what is properly defined as market timing versus playing the odds. I think of market timing as trying to guess the peaks and valleys, something which few if any can do with any consistency. I recently reduced my exposure to Vancouver real estate because I'm happy to risk missing some extra profit rather than attempt to guess the top.

Right now the disconnect between historically normal relationships between incomes/rents/prices is severly distorted and appears to be unsustainable. Your point about timing is well taken, I don't know how much or when the market will correct but I do know it will. The longer the bull run the closer we get to the correction. Also, the further we depart from historically normal ratios, the higher the odds of a bigger correction.

I put those two facts together, add in emergency low interest rates and conclude that the odds of seeing strong equity growth in local real estate are probably much smaller than the odds of seeing a loss - perhaps a big loss. In my mind, because current prices are multiples of the rental cost for a similar property, the only justification for buying today is if you expect large gains in equity.

I may well be wrong but I don't see those large gains occurring in the next few years, a drop in values looks more
likely. But hey, that's just my opinion, everybody else needs to decide for themselves.
Lost Soul:
This is really rich. Too bad the archives have been deleted showing where others have made this exact same argument only to get pilloried by you as "market timers". How were they any different than you now??? :roll:
They were different because they didn't make the "exact same argument". You need to re-read my comments above, then tell me whether or not any of the circumstances have changed since a few years ago. I recall that back then you insisted that anybody who buys or sells is always "timing the market". Let's not resurrect that absurd notion.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Lost Soul
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Thu Dec 12, 2013 4:05 pm

I agree that, as a general rule, timing markets doesn't work but I guess we can debate what is properly defined as market timing versus playing the odds. I think of market timing as trying to guess the peaks and valleys, something which few if any can do with any consistency. I recently reduced my exposure to Vancouver real estate because I'm happy to risk missing some extra profit rather than attempt to guess the top.

Right now the disconnect between historically normal relationships between incomes/rents/prices is severly distorted and appears to be unsustainable. Your point about timing is well taken, I don't know how much or when the market will correct but I do know it will. The longer the bull run the closer we get to the correction. Also, the further we depart from historically normal ratios, the higher the odds of a bigger correction.

I put those two facts together, add in emergency low interest rates and conclude that the odds of seeing strong equity growth in local real estate are probably much smaller than the odds of seeing a loss - perhaps a big loss. In my mind, because current prices are multiples of the rental cost for a similar property, the only justification for buying today is if you expect large gains in equity.

I may well be wrong but I don't see those large gains occurring in the next few years, a drop in values looks more
likely. But hey, that's just my opinion, everybody else needs to decide for themselves.
Lost Soul:
This is really rich. Too bad the archives have been deleted showing where others have made this exact same argument only to get pilloried by you as "market timers". How were they any different than you now??? :roll:
They were different because they didn't make the "exact same argument". You need to re-read my comments above, then tell me whether or not any of the circumstances have changed since a few years ago. I recall that back then you insisted that anybody who buys or sells is always "timing the market". Let's not resurrect that absurd notion.
Classic again for you. "absurd notion" is *your opinion* just like everything you said above (severely distorted, odds of this, odds of that, only justification, etc) -- yet somehow, your opinion is fact and everyone elses is (was) unfounded speculation. You ask me to tell you whether or not any of the circumstances have changed -- no, nothing has changed except hindisght.
-- Wish you were here ...
 
Geyser
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Thu Dec 12, 2013 5:06 pm

LS
Classic again for you. "absurd notion" is *your opinion*
Yes, the things I post are usually my opinions, how about you?

LS
just like everything you said above (severely distorted, odds of this, odds of that, only justification, etc) -- yet somehow, your opinion is fact and everyone elses is (was) unfounded speculation.
Obviously your comments are just another of your usual knee-jerk reactions to my posts. If you had actually read the post which you are criticizing you might have noticed this:

Geyser
I may well be wrong but I don't see those large gains occurring in the next few years, a drop in values looks more
likely. But hey, that's just my opinion, everybody else needs to decide for themselves.
Does that really suggest to you that I consider my opinions to be "fact" and everybody else's to be "unfounded speculation"?

I don't recall ever suggesting such a thing, so can I assume that's just your opinion?

LS
You ask me to tell you whether or not any of the circumstances have changed -- no, nothing has changed except hindisght.
If you truly believe nothing has changed in the last couple of years you must have been in a coma, welcome back.

As far as hindsight is concerned, it's a lot more accurate than most people's foresight. When I'm weighing the odds of what might happen in the future I think looking at the past is often very helpful, apparently you operate differently - hence your highly appropriate moniker. :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Thu Dec 12, 2013 10:05 pm

Fawk!... RS Hole got dissed and dismissed just like an old pair of stinky runner! Owwwww! :)
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
Lost Soul
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Fri Dec 13, 2013 3:01 pm

LS
Classic again for you. "absurd notion" is *your opinion*
Yes, the things I post are usually my opinions, how about you?
Well, then I guess you must accept that maybe my so-called "absurd notion" isn't necessarily an absurd notion but simply something you declared is an absurd notion for the world's benefit??

Geyser
I may well be wrong but I don't see those large gains occurring in the next few years, a drop in values looks more
likely. But hey, that's just my opinion, everybody else needs to decide for themselves.
That's kind of funny. I mean this is what others were saying a few years ago but somehow, you thought that such thoughts were unjustifiable back then.
If you truly believe nothing has changed in the last couple of years you must have been in a coma, welcome back.

As far as hindsight is concerned, it's a lot more accurate than most people's foresight. When I'm weighing the odds of what might happen in the future I think looking at the past is often very helpful,
Gee, I thought that was what others were doing a few years ago, yet it didn't seem a good enough argument for you.
apparently you operate differently - hence your highly appropriate moniker. :lol:
No, I think we operate the same way -- it's just that I'm not a hypocrite and a windbag :P .
-- Wish you were here ...
 
Geyser
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Fri Dec 13, 2013 4:06 pm

Oh dear, the knee-jerk troll is at it again.
Well, then I guess you must accept that maybe my so-called "absurd notion" isn't necessarily an absurd notion but simply something you declared is an absurd notion for the world's benefit??
It remains an absurd notion in my mind and probably in the minds of most people whose IQ exceeds their shoe size.

LS
That's kind of funny. I mean this is what others were saying a few years ago but somehow, you thought that such thoughts were unjustifiable back then.
It's not funny at all. Back then I felt such thoughts were unjustifiable based on the circumstances at that time. You may have noticed that I was subsequently proved correct. When circumstances change I tend to adjust my expectations in line with current realities, that's where we appear to differ.

LS
Gee, I thought that was what others were doing a few years ago, yet it didn't seem a good enough argument for you
When did I ever say we should ignore history? There you go with your contrived absurdities again.

A few years ago I was looking at the past as well as the prevailing conditions at the time, I'm sure most others (bulls & bears) were doing the same thing. The difference is that, despite us all seeing the same evidence, my expectations proved to be more accurate than those of the perma-bears.

LS
No, I think we operate the same way -- it's just that I'm not a hypocrite and a windbag
No, we don't operate the same way at all, your inaccurate and misleading comments prove you are exactly as described, a knee-jerk troll, nothing more. But that's okay, even stupid people are entitled to their opinions, however disconnected from the facts. :D
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Lost Soul
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Fri Dec 13, 2013 5:44 pm

Geezer, I never thought you were dense but now I'm beginning to question that. The rationale that people put forward years ago is the same that you are putting forward now -- the only difference is that they didn't couch in such tiresome words as you. Yet somehow, you believe their rationale was unjustified and that they were trying to time the market based on that rationale yet here you are now putting forth the exact same reasoning and claiming it's not timing the market. That is hypocritical -- it has nothing to do with who was/is right in their assessment.
-- Wish you were here ...
 
Geyser
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Fri Dec 13, 2013 6:57 pm

The rationale that people put forward years ago is the same that you are putting forward now -- the only difference is that they didn't couch in such tiresome words as you.
No, the big difference is that the circumstances have changed enough to cause me to move from optimistic to pessimistic. Back then their rational proved to be flawed for the time, I think that rational is reasonably applicable in today's circumstances but I recognize that time might prove me wrong too.

LS
Yet somehow, you believe their rationale was unjustified and that they were trying to time the market based on that rationale yet here you are now putting forth the exact same reasoning and claiming it's not timing the market.
As I have exhaustively stated, their rational was unjustified back then and history has proven that fact, it appears justified today but we won't know for sure until the correction runs its course. It's unfortunate that you can't wrap your mind around that simple fact but binary thinking does that to people.

LS
That is hypocritical -- it has nothing to do with who was/is right in their assessment.
Nonsense! Let's take an example which you might find is easier to understand (although I won't hold my breath):

Two wine lovers look at two identical bottles of wine.

Wine lover number one looks at the label, the colour, the clarity and the legs and opines that it is a fine wine ready to drink.

Wine lover number two looks at the same things but opines that it may become a good wine but it isn't ready to drink yet.

Upon opening the first bottle it becomes clear that the wine is too young and not very drinkable. A few years later they open bottle two and discover it is now a good wine and very drinkable. I guess that makes wine lover two a hypocrit in your eyes. :roll:

That's pretty much what I said about the "imminent price collapse" a few years ago. I stated that a correction was inevitable "but not just yet". They were wrong and I was right - that's not hypocrisy, that's fact.

Here's another example, in the late 1930's it was rationally justifiable to declare war on Germany, today the circumstances are very different and what may have been justifiable then is not justifiable today. Was it hypocritical to declare war in the 1930's?

I've repeatedly tried to explain the simple concept of changing one's position as the circumstances change. That's not hypocrisy, that's common sense. You just don't get it but that's okay, remain "Lost" with your fixed thinking.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
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thompson2
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Fri Dec 13, 2013 9:28 pm

This is really rich. Too bad the archives have been deleted showing where others have made this exact same argument only to get pilloried by you as "market timers". How were they any different than you now??? :roll:
2003, LS: Market will crash tomorrow
2004, LS: crash
2005, LS: crash
2006, LS: crash
2007, LS: crash
2008, LS: crash
2009, LS: crash
2010, LS: crash
2011, LS: crash
2012, LS: crash
2013, Geyser: crash; LS: Fawk! How was I any different than u now? :P
 
barrievattoy
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Sat Dec 14, 2013 12:01 am

Christmas is almost upon us. Geezer quit what your drinking and try a little egg nog. :roll:
 
Geyser
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Sat Dec 14, 2013 12:59 am

Wow Barrie, it looks like you're still really sore about me pointing out the widely published accusations of tampering relating to those sales numbers you so proudly posted. Or are you just mad because I praised your competitor for not being full of the kind of BS we so often see from others.

Do you still refuse to answer theose valid questions about number fudging?

Come on, it's nearly Christmas, give us all a gift by explaining the numerous serious questions about those questionable statistics which you presumably use as a sales tool. Just how inflated do you think the recent sales numbers are in BC? It would be good to hear an insiders honest views, why do you shy away from that? :D
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: In Vancouver, renting is a better option than buying

Sat Dec 14, 2013 7:29 am

The Huffers were squawking back since 2003 that renting was better than buying.... Blah, blah, blah... :shock:

And they have been proven w.r.o.n.g. :P

Hahaha... :mrgreen:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
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