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tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 7:55 pm

are you a real person, I'm starting to think you are a bot that just regurgitates the same crap.  You obviously didn't read anything I said in my posts
Funny, I think the kettle is calling the pot black.
If you read all the comments you would know this whole conversation started about renting VS buying. Renters claiming investing their entire savings into the stock market.
I never said investing in the stock market was a bad thing, nor did I say paying into a retirement plan is bad. Don't confuse me with TDMA.
I'm stating the following.
Since 2008, if someone decided to rent VS buy. Their "savings" difference invested into the stock market would have most likely not have done as well as someone who has purchased a property. (there are many of us who bought in 2008 with tons of equity now) No one has shown a stock portfolio in the hundred of thousands of dollars they have earned since 2008.
I'm also saying that investing in equities with large sums of money without a house is not practical. If you cant stomach a price dip in the housing market how can you handle a 2008 crash. I can understand buying a holding long term for a RRSP in a blue chip and make money that way. However those renters who put their life savings into the market will most certainly lose their shirts, anyone who says otherwise has never actively traded stocks before. Like you said before, 9-10% beating a broad index is already very good, that's if you can keep your grubby hands from panic selling the dips and buying the peaks.

9/10 people can't trade stocks actively and be successful. The successful ones buy and hold.
If the stock market was so easy, Canadians would not be trillions of dollars in debt. Everyone would be able to afford homes in the million of dollar range. According to you everyone doubles their TFSA to 100K.

people try to compare home ownership to a stock bubble.
This is where the chart comes from.
 Image
I never disagreed, with any part of what you said and actually agree with almost everything you said, except that the stock market is a zero sum game.  Everything else I agree 100%.  I wasn't arguing with you, I came in to argue the points that smartypants was making, I guess that's pointless though.
However you are putting words in my mouth I didn't say "everyone doubles their TFSA to 100k"  Based on my math the average TFSA holds 11k, but I said some people do double it (but I guess you are probably right those are very long odds)...heck there are stories of people having over a mill in their TFSA, although some of that was a scam and those people hopefully got caught.  My only point was that the TFSA is a great instrument and can be a useful wealth building tool.  

Yes indeed the stock market is hard, we are minnows swimming with the sharks.  

Okay I also got cheeky on the Canadian only content, so anyway...I'm just going to let it go and go spend time on more useful things now...later
The TFSA is only a mediocre tool for someone who has only $400 or so a month to save. Anyone else would be better off buying a home as they could put in far more than $400 a month if they could afford it, and enjoy an instant tax free income by saving interest on their mortgage
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 7:57 pm

Image

Trust me when I say, the stock market is not easy. I have lots of experience.
A healthy amount, despite what the other person disgreeing says. He both said and implied that the majority increase their savings acccount by leaps and bounds.

In any case, especially for a person who can save a decent amount, its a terrible wealth building tool since the annual deposits are strictly limited
 
yzfr1
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 7:57 pm

Its all good vanlord.

This forum is for entertainment purpose only. No matter what anyone says it will not effect the market on bit. I come here to hear the other side of the story. Its wise to know both sides of the story, some of it might be true.

I hope no one comes here for actual advice from some random strangers on the internet.

Everyone should learn and understand for themselves what ever they choose to "invest" in
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:02 pm

exemptions and rebates are coming. we're going to the moon!




http://business.financialpost.com/perso ... ns-elusive
VICTORIA — B.C.’s finance minister will unveil new exemptions and rebates for the foreign buyer tax on Metro Vancouver real estate this week.
Chasing the Canadian dream: The real force driving the housing boom in our big cities
[img=216x0]http://tu9srvbirvvtocr3cg1lzglhlmj1c2lu ... FnZS50eXBl_$/$/$/$[/img]As the debate rages on about foreign speculators and housing bubbles, people on the ground say this boom is a lot more sustainable than many think. Find out more

International citizens with work permits, who pay taxes in B.C., won’t have to pay the foreign buyer surcharge. That’s a bid to recruit high-tech workers from the United States. And foreign nationals who were hit with the 15 per cent foreign buyer tax on their real estate, but then months later become Canadian citizens, could get a rebate.
 
VanLord
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:27 pm

Conjecture, allot of people could have done quite well buying AAPL in 2000, Telsa is angel funding period.

People who turned $50,000 into $100,000 (though possible) but rare. 1 in 1000 people did that if not higher.

Simple economics says allot of people had to lose their 50 for others to gain the 100.

What's not conjecture? People who bought a house in 2008 instead of renting. They are in the hundreds of thousands of dollars positive in equity.

Even floating the idea of doubling a TFSA is crazier then saying Vancouver RE will hit 3 million.

Beating a broad index like S&P YOY at 7-9% is already considered VERY VERY GOOD.

I would like to take some stock tips for you guys and doubbing of your money.
Read my last comment to smartypants.  Have the discipline to invest slowly over time and you will make lots of money!  You're right about the indices, its hard to beat them...but if you can't beat'em ...join'em, 7-9% will double your money in 8-10 years and if you are dollar cost averaging and reinvesting your dividends you can double your money in 4-5years.  Also read my post from several weeks back, the system is rigged.  The Market indices replace the dogs with new up and coming stars like Apple and perhaps Tesla will make it one day onto the DOW (likely already in the S&P).  So if you just but 10-15% of your income into an index fund every payday, you will end up with almost guaranteed millions of dollars by the end of your life...that's it no magic, almost no risk and nothing to think about or worry about market timing, etc.  Combine that with a house purchase and you will live a comfortable life and be able to afford a great lifestyle.. retiring at 55 or maybe even sooner.
The stock market is not a zero sum game!!  It's actually the biggest wealth creator of all time and is the engine of a capitalist market based economy.  The stock market is what made America Great, because it provides the capital funding to grow small companies much faster, jnto powerhouse corporations, while providing the common man with a place to make decent returns....True you can lose your shirt if you not careful, and more and more you are swimming with the sharks, but again simple strategies will allow you to not become bait for those sharks.

The stock market only works so long as everyone stays in. Thats why whenever there is a crisis the big wigs come on media to convince everyone to hold.
Its a shell game. The day of reckoning for stocks will come.
Ok one argument with ETB, than I'm out for a while
How is Real Estate any different???  The US Real Estate Crash is a perfect example and if the market in Vancouver does turn the bears of the last ten years are going to be right and its going to sting, only worse than a stock market crash, given that a lot of people are over leveraged and will no longer have the means to pay their underwater mortgages.  
In the event of a Stock Market Crash, those people who are dollar cost averaging will have a very rare chance to significantly build their holdings and the smart ones will double their contributions at that point.  They will then be in a position to profit once the market turns up again.  However, most will pull the plug on their investments and stop contributing, which will be a huge mistake on their part.  
I would argue that a stock market crash is much less devastating then a RE crash, since the stock market money, should be money you technically don't need to live, you also aren't leveraging debt to buy into the stock market (in most cases), and won't lose your home if it does go bad (in most cases).
However in the end, our economy is all really just a big ponzi scheme, its called Capitalism, and if the Sh*t does hit the fan it won't matter if you are in Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate or have money stuffed under your mattress.  It will all be worthless.  Yes maybe having land will be better, but you better have the means to hold onto the land and protect it, otherwise it'll be gone too.  Or in BC if the Big One Hits we will all be equally F*cked living in tents on our front lawns.  Guaranteed your real estate will be worth much less or maybe worthless over night in those disaster scenarios.
Last question ETB...Why do you sometimes come to the defence of smartypants, his posts are downright stupid, you have admitted to participate in a pension plan, which is exactly what I am advocating for, but yet you somehow agree with those dumb comments....similar to the Mortgage employment insurance.  Some of the dumbest ideas and yet you are somehow coming to his defence???
Obviously I've ruffled some feathers, but remember I'm all in on Real Estate, I have a significant portfolio of real estate.  I have built it up mostly by using the Never Sell unless you absolutely have to sell philosophy...I instead turned these assets into Income producing assets.  I also have a counter balance, which is a significant stock market portfolio as well.  Most of that was built up through regular contributions to a DC Pension plan, RRSPs as well as Employee Share Plans.  All of these have been great tools and I have experienced two big crashes in my time, with as much as 60% losses after the dot com crash, as well as a 70% pull back in my company shares at one point.  I know people that stopped contributing at that exact point and missed out on tens of thousands in future gains, when the bounce back occurred.  I have always tried to keep a balanced approach and pulled through with more money and bigger profits by holding the course and being patient.  
I know first hand these strategies work...now I'm planning for Freedom 45 baby...taxes be damned smartypants
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:58 pm

If it is true that its hard to find a clean apartment at a good price, then where do 30,000 rental units per year come online (only a few thousand per year now) - the answer is bingo- you dont get 30,000 units a year in metro vancouver.

to the moon!


lol at the earthquake people think will happen. people that actually know about this stuff knows you  just bolt your place to foundation. 

educated people that dont gamble on stocks know that every major piece of infrastructure in vancouver built in the past 10 years such as the canada line, golden ears, port mann, and so on was built to the 1 in 2000 year standard, and event he old massey tunnel was renovated to the 1 in 250 or so year standard.
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:12 pm

Read my last comment to smartypants.  Have the discipline to invest slowly over time and you will make lots of money!  You're right about the indices, its hard to beat them...but if you can't beat'em ...join'em, 7-9% will double your money in 8-10 years and if you are dollar cost averaging and reinvesting your dividends you can double your money in 4-5years.  Also read my post from several weeks back, the system is rigged.  The Market indices replace the dogs with new up and coming stars like Apple and perhaps Tesla will make it one day onto the DOW (likely already in the S&P).  So if you just but 10-15% of your income into an index fund every payday, you will end up with almost guaranteed millions of dollars by the end of your life...that's it no magic, almost no risk and nothing to think about or worry about market timing, etc.  Combine that with a house purchase and you will live a comfortable life and be able to afford a great lifestyle.. retiring at 55 or maybe even sooner.
The stock market is not a zero sum game!!  It's actually the biggest wealth creator of all time and is the engine of a capitalist market based economy.  The stock market is what made America Great, because it provides the capital funding to grow small companies much faster, jnto powerhouse corporations, while providing the common man with a place to make decent returns....True you can lose your shirt if you not careful, and more and more you are swimming with the sharks, but again simple strategies will allow you to not become bait for those sharks.

The stock market only works so long as everyone stays in. Thats why whenever there is a crisis the big wigs come on media to convince everyone to hold.
Its a shell game. The day of reckoning for stocks will come.
Ok one argument with ETB, than I'm out for a while
How is Real Estate any different???  The US Real Estate Crash is a perfect example and if the market in Vancouver does turn the bears of the last ten years are going to be right and its going to sting, only worse than a stock market crash, given that a lot of people are over leveraged and will no longer have the means to pay their underwater mortgages.  
In the event of a Stock Market Crash, those people who are dollar cost averaging will have a very rare chance to significantly build their holdings and the smart ones will double their contributions at that point.  They will then be in a position to profit once the market turns up again.  However, most will pull the plug on their investments and stop contributing, which will be a huge mistake on their part.  
I would argue that a stock market crash is much less devastating then a RE crash, since the stock market money, should be money you technically don't need to live, you also aren't leveraging debt to buy into the stock market (in most cases), and won't lose your home if it does go bad (in most cases).
However in the end, our economy is all really just a big ponzi scheme, its called Capitalism, and if the Sh*t does hit the fan it won't matter if you are in Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate or have money stuffed under your mattress.  It will all be worthless.  Yes maybe having land will be better, but you better have the means to hold onto the land and protect it, otherwise it'll be gone too.  Or in BC if the Big One Hits we will all be equally F*cked living in tents on our front lawns.  Guaranteed your real estate will be worth much less or maybe worthless over night in those disaster scenarios.
Last question ETB...Why do you sometimes come to the defence of smartypants, his posts are downright stupid, you have admitted to participate in a pension plan, which is exactly what I am advocating for, but yet you somehow agree with those dumb comments....similar to the Mortgage employment insurance.  Some of the dumbest ideas and yet you are somehow coming to his defence???
Obviously I've ruffled some feathers, but remember I'm all in on Real Estate, I have a significant portfolio of real estate.  I have built it up mostly by using the Never Sell unless you absolutely have to sell philosophy...I instead turned these assets into Income producing assets.  I also have a counter balance, which is a significant stock market portfolio as well.  Most of that was built up through regular contributions to a DC Pension plan, RRSPs as well as Employee Share Plans.  All of these have been great tools and I have experienced two big crashes in my time, with as much as 60% losses after the dot com crash, as well as a 70% pull back in my company shares at one point.  I know people that stopped contributing at that exact point and missed out on tens of thousands in future gains, when the bounce back occurred.  I have always tried to keep a balanced approach and pulled through with more money and bigger profits by holding the course and being patient.  
I know first hand these strategies work...now I'm planning for Freedom 45 baby
...taxes be damned smartypants
It still makes no sense to have bought $300,000 of stocks in 2006 and have 3 million now when you could have done the same with a house in vancouver  and have 3 million now tax free.
Most people dont know that if you're concerned about your job you can buy mortgage insurance for that.
https://www.bmo.com/home/personal/banki ... protection
furthermore, many people dont know that even self employment income(your own business) is covered with some typical visa cards in canada as well
not worth it to gamble on stocks you cant live in
 
westcoastfella
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:17 pm

The stock market only works so long as everyone stays in. Thats why whenever there is a crisis the big wigs come on media to convince everyone to hold.
Its a shell game. The day of reckoning for stocks will come.
This is true of any market - the basic requirement of a market is buyers and sellers.  If one or both disappear, so does the market.  This includes the housing market.

What exactly do you imagine the "day of reckoning for stocks" will look like?  People that say things like this don't seem to realize that stocks are not some random piece of paper, they are shares... specifically, shares in a company that produces something, employs people, and forms the backbone for the economy that is required to preserve the the value of other things.  Individual companies will come and go over time, I don't see any "day of reckoning" for the stock market as a whole anytime soon.

The stock market will, of course, adjust itself periodically (1987, 2000) and occasionally crash hard (2008).  Time to sell for panicky investors, time to buy shares in good companies at a discount for others.  I was a new investor in 2000, and mostly panicked.  I was a better investor in 2008, and did not.
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:21 pm

nobody has yet said 

what if a typical dink dual income no kids couple can spare $36,000 a year to gamble in the stock market.   say they get lucky.  $360,000 over 10 years turns into 1 million.  how can they avoid paying taxes on the entire amount?

the same amount would be tax free if it was a house they lived in.
 
westcoastfella
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:29 pm

Image

Trust me when I say, the stock market is not easy. I have lots of experience.
yzfr, curious - are you in the O&G exploration or mining business, or do you have extremely deep knowledge of either of these sectors?  If not, I'd say your doing more "gambling" and less "investing"...
The stock market is not easy.  But it doesn't have to be this hard either.
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:32 pm

we're going to the moon!

http://globalnews.ca/news/3307788/canad ... vancouver/
They found that 12 out of the 15 most expensive listed homes are located in Metro Vancouver.
 
yzfr1
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:45 pm

Ok one argument with ETB, than I'm out for a while
How is Real Estate any different???  The US Real Estate Crash is a perfect example and if the market in Vancouver does turn the bears of the last ten years are going to be right and its going to sting, only worse than a stock market crash, given that a lot of people are over leveraged and will no longer have the means to pay their underwater mortgages.  
In the event of a Stock Market Crash, those people who are dollar cost averaging will have a very rare chance to significantly build their holdings and the smart ones will double their contributions at that point.  They will then be in a position to profit once the market turns up again.  However, most will pull the plug on their investments and stop contributing, which will be a huge mistake on their part.  
I would argue that a stock market crash is much less devastating then a RE crash, since the stock market money, should be money you technically don't need to live, you also aren't leveraging debt to buy into the stock market (in most cases), and won't lose your home if it does go bad (in most cases).
However in the end, our economy is all really just a big ponzi scheme, its called Capitalism, and if the Sh*t does hit the fan it won't matter if you are in Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate or have money stuffed under your mattress.  It will all be worthless.  Yes maybe having land will be better, but you better have the means to hold onto the land and protect it, otherwise it'll be gone too.  Or in BC if the Big One Hits we will all be equally F*cked living in tents on our front lawns.  Guaranteed your real estate will be worth much less or maybe worthless over night in those disaster scenarios.
Last question ETB...Why do you sometimes come to the defence of smartypants, his posts are downright stupid, you have admitted to participate in a pension plan, which is exactly what I am advocating for, but yet you somehow agree with those dumb comments....similar to the Mortgage employment insurance.  Some of the dumbest ideas and yet you are somehow coming to his defence???
Obviously I've ruffled some feathers, but remember I'm all in on Real Estate, I have a significant portfolio of real estate.  I have built it up mostly by using the Never Sell unless you absolutely have to sell philosophy...I instead turned these assets into Income producing assets.  I also have a counter balance, which is a significant stock market portfolio as well.  Most of that was built up through regular contributions to a DC Pension plan, RRSPs as well as Employee Share Plans.  All of these have been great tools and I have experienced two big crashes in my time, with as much as 60% losses after the dot com crash, as well as a 70% pull back in my company shares at one point.  I know people that stopped contributing at that exact point and missed out on tens of thousands in future gains, when the bounce back occurred.  I have always tried to keep a balanced approach and pulled through with more money and bigger profits by holding the course and being patient.  
I know first hand these strategies work...now I'm planning for Freedom 45 baby...taxes be damned smartypants
How is Real Estate any different???
The majority of real estate holdings are for primary residence, a fraction of that is for pure investment purposes.  Equities are 100% investment only. When the milk turns sour, people will continue to need a place to live. How many people would sell when their house is worth nothing then go homeless? Equities can be abandoned  in a instant, companies can go insolvent. That is more likely to occur then Vancouver being destroyed by natural disaster. The fact that housing is non liquid asset prevents the morons from panic selling in a instant and acts as a "ballast" to prevent shaky nerves.
The US Real Estate Crash
This is non comparable, you really need to understand how Canadian and US markets work, regulations and practices.
#1 sub prime loans. Loans that were issued to people with no job verification or income. This is where you hear about plumbers owning 3 homes with zero down payment. In Canada the lending practices are quite stringent. CHMC / 5% minimum down payment  / Service-to-debt ratios (only lending what you can afford based on income)
#2 We do not have a derivative market that offers Collateralize Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps. Big lenders sold their mortgage bonds to investment banks (Meryl Lynch) and in turn created derivatives. Bonds of mortgages filled with sub prime. Here comes the fraud. Investment banks took out Credit Default Swaps through AIG betting against the bonds.
CDO's had a 10-1 payout. Banks / Rating agencies / investment banks sold mortgages to people who could not afford it and wanted them to fail on purpose to collect the lucrative CDO payouts. They crashed the system on purpose. A traditional home can only be insured once buy the owner. In the derivative market, thousands of people took insurance polices on a single asset. When that asset went belly up AIG did not have capital to cover their exposure.
#3 This is the most important part. To much of Vancouver is mortgage free. Areas like east Vancouver, or West Vancouver... established areas. Maybe 1 home in a whole block has a mortgage. If shit hits the fan only that 1 person might need to sell. A new development in Langley,  where 50 new houses were created in a new development where everyone has a mortgage at the same time. If un employment hits 10% there might be pressure for more then 1 unit to sell in a panic, this is where supply and demand come into play. The longer houses stay at the price range... its been 10 years of a bull run in real estate. People have been building equity and paying down mortgage. 
You say people are over leveraged? to buy a 1.5 million dollar home in Vancouver, there is no CHMC. You would need $700,000 cash or more. No one qualifies for 1.2 million dollar mortgage.  I don't know to many idiots who have huge income, tons of saved down payment who made it that far. Only to over stretch and buy something they cant afford. Condos and places like Maple Ridge is a different story. 
 Stock Market Crash, those people who are dollar cost averaging will have a very rare chance to significantly build their holdings and the smart ones will double their contributions at that point.  They will then be in a position to profit once the market turns up again.  However, most will pull the plug on their investments and stop contributing, which will be a huge mistake on their part. 
This is idealism 101. This is called trying to catch a falling knife. In a ideal world it make sense. But who the hell knows when is the bottom of the market. What if you double down your capital reserves and its not even 50% to finding a bottom yet. I prefer you stick to the dollar average.  Timing the market never works otherwise we would all be rich.
I hope I provided some clear information and my thought processes
 
tdma800
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:53 pm

Ok one argument with ETB, than I'm out for a while
How is Real Estate any different???  The US Real Estate Crash is a perfect example and if the market in Vancouver does turn the bears of the last ten years are going to be right and its going to sting, only worse than a stock market crash, given that a lot of people are over leveraged and will no longer have the means to pay their underwater mortgages.  
In the event of a Stock Market Crash, those people who are dollar cost averaging will have a very rare chance to significantly build their holdings and the smart ones will double their contributions at that point.  They will then be in a position to profit once the market turns up again.  However, most will pull the plug on their investments and stop contributing, which will be a huge mistake on their part.  
I would argue that a stock market crash is much less devastating then a RE crash, since the stock market money, should be money you technically don't need to live, you also aren't leveraging debt to buy into the stock market (in most cases), and won't lose your home if it does go bad (in most cases).
However in the end, our economy is all really just a big ponzi scheme, its called Capitalism, and if the Sh*t does hit the fan it won't matter if you are in Stocks, Bonds, Real Estate or have money stuffed under your mattress.  It will all be worthless.  Yes maybe having land will be better, but you better have the means to hold onto the land and protect it, otherwise it'll be gone too.  Or in BC if the Big One Hits we will all be equally F*cked living in tents on our front lawns.  Guaranteed your real estate will be worth much less or maybe worthless over night in those disaster scenarios.
Last question ETB...Why do you sometimes come to the defence of smartypants, his posts are downright stupid, you have admitted to participate in a pension plan, which is exactly what I am advocating for, but yet you somehow agree with those dumb comments....similar to the Mortgage employment insurance.  Some of the dumbest ideas and yet you are somehow coming to his defence???
Obviously I've ruffled some feathers, but remember I'm all in on Real Estate, I have a significant portfolio of real estate.  I have built it up mostly by using the Never Sell unless you absolutely have to sell philosophy...I instead turned these assets into Income producing assets.  I also have a counter balance, which is a significant stock market portfolio as well.  Most of that was built up through regular contributions to a DC Pension plan, RRSPs as well as Employee Share Plans.  All of these have been great tools and I have experienced two big crashes in my time, with as much as 60% losses after the dot com crash, as well as a 70% pull back in my company shares at one point.  I know people that stopped contributing at that exact point and missed out on tens of thousands in future gains, when the bounce back occurred.  I have always tried to keep a balanced approach and pulled through with more money and bigger profits by holding the course and being patient.  
I know first hand these strategies work...now I'm planning for Freedom 45 baby...taxes be damned smartypants
How is Real Estate any different???
The majority of real estate holdings are for primary residence, a fraction of that is for pure investment purposes.  Equities are 100% investment only. When the milk turns sour, people will continue to need a place to live. How many people would sell when their house is worth nothing then go homeless? Equities can be abandoned  in a instant, companies can go insolvent. That is more likely to occur then Vancouver being destroyed by natural disaster. The fact that housing is non liquid asset prevents the morons from panic selling in a instant and acts as a "ballast" to prevent shaky nerves.
The US Real Estate Crash
This is non comparable, you really need to understand how Canadian and US markets work, regulations and practices.
#1 sub prime loans. Loans that were issued to people with no job verification or income. This is where you hear about plumbers owning 3 homes with zero down payment. In Canada the lending practices are quite stringent. CHMC / 5% minimum down payment  / Service-to-debt ratios (only lending what you can afford based on income)
#2 We do not have a derivative market that offers Collateralize Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps. Big lenders sold their mortgage bonds to investment banks (Meryl Lynch) and in turn created derivatives. Bonds of mortgages filled with sub prime. Here comes the fraud. Investment banks took out Credit Default Swaps through AIG betting against the bonds.
CDO's had a 10-1 payout. Banks / Rating agencies / investment banks sold mortgages to people who could not afford it and wanted them to fail on purpose to collect the lucrative CDO payouts. They crashed the system on purpose. A traditional home can only be insured once buy the owner. In the derivative market, thousands of people took insurance polices on a single asset. When that asset went belly up AIG did not have capital to cover their exposure.
#3 This is the most important part. To much of Vancouver is mortgage free. Areas like east Vancouver, or West Vancouver... established areas. Maybe 1 home in a whole block has a mortgage. If shit hits the fan only that 1 person might need to sell. A new development in Langley,  where 50 new houses were created in a new development where everyone has a mortgage at the same time. If un employment hits 10% there might be pressure for more then 1 unit to sell in a panic, this is where supply and demand come into play. The longer houses stay at the price range... its been 10 years of a bull run in real estate. People have been building equity and paying down mortgage. 
You say people are over leveraged? to buy a 1.5 million dollar home in Vancouver, there is no CHMC. You would need $700,000 cash or more. No one qualifies for 1.2 million dollar mortgage.  I don't know to many idiots who have huge income, tons of saved down payment who made it that far. Only to over stretch and buy something they cant afford. Condos and places like Maple Ridge is a different story. 
 Stock Market Crash, those people who are dollar cost averaging will have a very rare chance to significantly build their holdings and the smart ones will double their contributions at that point.  They will then be in a position to profit once the market turns up again.  However, most will pull the plug on their investments and stop contributing, which will be a huge mistake on their part. 
This is idealism 101. This is called trying to catch a falling knife. In a ideal world it make sense. But who the hell knows when is the bottom of the market. What if you double down your capital reserves and its not even 50% to finding a bottom yet. I prefer you stick to the dollar average.  Timing the market never works otherwise we would all be rich.
I hope I provided some clear information and my thought processes
#4. Americans have a small limit on how much their home can be sold for tax free. Canadians have no limit
#5. Property taxes in Vancouver are among the lowest in North America.
#6. For people that think interest will go up(lol who are they kidding) you can get a mortgage even on a rental property with a 2 year term in Canada
 
yzfr1
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 9:54 pm

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Trust me when I say, the stock market is not easy. I have lots of experience.
yzfr, curious - are you in the O&G exploration or mining business, or do you have extremely deep knowledge of either of these sectors?  If not, I'd say your doing more "gambling" and less "investing"...
The stock market is not easy.  But it doesn't have to be this hard either.
I like volatility, big swings and low cap so my small capital can be leveraged. High risk, big reward. I own my house so this is disposable income. I'm not forced into a trade to try and earn something when there is nothing to earn. I can be out of action and its not a problem. I suppose it is gambling, but what ever it takes to bring home the bacon I suppose. Money dont care where it came from   
 
VanLord
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Wed Mar 15, 2017 11:04 pm

How is Real Estate any different???
The majority of real estate holdings are for primary residence, a fraction of that is for pure investment purposes.  Equities are 100% investment only. When the milk turns sour, people will continue to need a place to live. How many people would sell when their house is worth nothing then go homeless? Equities can be abandoned  in a instant, companies can go insolvent. That is more likely to occur then Vancouver being destroyed by natural disaster. The fact that housing is non liquid asset prevents the morons from panic selling in a instant and acts as a "ballast" to prevent shaky nerves.Yeah but in the Dirty 30's many people were forced to abandon their land and property because they couldn't afford to upkeep the property, pay the taxes or feed their families, I believe this was true in Canada as well as the US.  If you can't survive, the property won't do you any good, yes this is obviously the most extreme cases I'm talking about.  If there was an Economic Disaster (currency devaluation, deflation, or runaway inflation), Mega Thrust Earthquake, Infectious outbreak or Heaven forbid Nuclear War these scenarios could all trigger a major shock to our economy which would make local real estate prices meaningless.  I think the Stock Market would be more resilient in some of these cases (or maybe not).


The US Real Estate Crash
This is non comparable, you really need to understand how Canadian and US markets work, regulations and practices.
#1 sub prime loans. Loans that were issued to people with no job verification or income. This is where you hear about plumbers owning 3 homes with zero down payment. In Canada the lending practices are quite stringent. CHMC / 5% minimum down payment  / Service-to-debt ratios (only lending what you can afford based on income)
#2 We do not have a derivative market that offers Collateralize Debt Obligations and Credit Default Swaps. Big lenders sold their mortgage bonds to investment banks (Meryl Lynch) and in turn created derivatives. Bonds of mortgages filled with sub prime. Here comes the fraud. Investment banks took out Credit Default Swaps through AIG betting against the bonds.
CDO's had a 10-1 payout. Banks / Rating agencies / investment banks sold mortgages to people who could not afford it and wanted them to fail on purpose to collect the lucrative CDO payouts. They crashed the system on purpose. A traditional home can only be insured once buy the owner. In the derivative market, thousands of people took insurance polices on a single asset. When that asset went belly up AIG did not have capital to cover their exposure.This is true, we don't have the same issues as the states and we also have different foreclosure rules, which benefit the home owner over the bank.  We have a forced sale model, and the courts often side with the home owner in Canada.


#3 This is the most important part. To much of Vancouver is mortgage free. Areas like east Vancouver, or West Vancouver... established areas. Maybe 1 home in a whole block has a mortgage. If shit hits the fan only that 1 person might need to sell. 

I don't believe this is true, I bet there are more mortgages than this.  Even foreign buyers are using mortgages, not buying free and clear.  At least according to my banker who deals a lot with foreigners. 


A new development in Langley,  where 50 new houses were created in a new development where everyone has a mortgage at the same time. If un employment hits 10% there might be pressure for more then 1 unit to sell in a panic, this is where supply and demand come into play. The longer houses stay at the price range... its been 10 years of a bull run in real estate. People have been building equity and paying down mortgage. 

You say people are over leveraged? to buy a 1.5 million dollar home in Vancouver, there is no CHMC. You would need $700,000 cash or more. 

No you don't, you need 20% down, which could be covered by a line of credit or other debt financing, pushing you to 0% down.  My banker says he has lots for 1M+ mortgages.


This is idealism 101. This is called trying to catch a falling knife. In a ideal world it make sense. But who the hell knows when is the bottom of the market. What if you double down your capital reserves and its not even 50% to finding a bottom yet. I prefer you stick to the dollar average.  Timing the market never works otherwise we would all be rich.No its not Idealism, Dollar Cost Averaging is the opposite of trying to catch a falling knife, there is no timing the market, you just continue to save...by doubling your 10% savings to 20%  you are still investing a relatively small amount and even if it continues to fall you continue to bring your average cost down faster, but even if you just keep saving at 10%, (admittedly more people wouldn't have the balls to increase their investments in the midst of an economic crisis) but either way you will eventually break even and become profitable, once the market starts to recover.  If your investing in the index or a basket of blue chips, you will not see those stocks go to zero.  I suppose there is a risk of flatlining like Japan did for so many years, but you should still have a positive return on the dividends...and just like real estate you haven't lost or gained anything until you sell.


I hope I provided some clear information and my thought processesYes you did, fair enough some valid points

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