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thompson2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu May 14, 2015 12:14 pm

Ok, I will predict a 20% crash if the market continues to rise like this in next two years. :lol:
 
HomelessinSD
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu May 14, 2015 1:58 pm

Great example: Because no one on your friend's block sold their house during a period of plummeting house prices, there wasn't a crash or decrease in that block's home values. That's been discussed so many times on this forum and it's just plain silly. Like saying even though my retirement investments have lost 40% of their value, I'm not really down because it's just paper losses and I haven't sold any of the investments yet.
Common, don't be so dumb.

Ok, let's talk about the Ratio of demanding to supply which is one of the best toy in bear's pocket. :lol: At any giving time prices will go down when demanding decreased; and faced the same decreased demanding price can drop even harder in the area that has more and more supplies. But, for the area if there is less inventory for sale, this situation will support the community to hold its market relatively well compare to others. That's not very difficult to understand, no? And I guess friend's neighbors who shopped around few blocks away must had one or two good reasons for themselves. :lol:
So your premise still stands? The premise that a block / street / neighborhood with a high density of Chinese owners was immune to the declining real estate values in Los Angeles and San Francisco, simply because the owners were predominately Chinese ? And this is based on your anecdotal experience while visiting a friend for an afternoon in Los Angeles.

The facts are that I own a home, in the City of San Francisco, in a predominately Chinese area, and home values in the neighborhood dropped between 30% to 40% from 2007 to 2010. That is a fact and directly contradicts your statement that there was no crash whatsoever in such areas.

Just admit you made inaccurate statement about something you don't have any experience in and leave it at that.
 
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thompson2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu May 14, 2015 2:38 pm

Great example: Because no one on your friend's block sold their house during a period of plummeting house prices, there wasn't a crash or decrease in that block's home values. That's been discussed so many times on this forum and it's just plain silly. Like saying even though my retirement investments have lost 40% of their value, I'm not really down because it's just paper losses and I haven't sold any of the investments yet.
Common, don't be so dumb.

Ok, let's talk about the Ratio of demanding to supply which is one of the best toy in bear's pocket. :lol: At any giving time prices will go down when demanding decreased; and faced the same decreased demanding price can drop even harder in the area that has more and more supplies. But, for the area if there is less inventory for sale, this situation will support the community to hold its market relatively well compare to others. That's not very difficult to understand, no? And I guess friend's neighbors who shopped around few blocks away must had one or two good reasons for themselves. :lol:
So your premise still stands? The premise that a block / street / neighborhood with a high density of Chinese owners was immune to the declining real estate values in Los Angeles and San Francisco, simply because the owners were predominately Chinese ? And this is based on your anecdotal experience while visiting a friend for an afternoon in Los Angeles.

The facts are that I own a home, in the City of San Francisco, in a predominately Chinese area, and home values in the neighborhood dropped between 30% to 40% from 2007 to 2010. That is a fact and directly contradicts your statement that there was no crash whatsoever in such areas.

Just admit you made inaccurate statement about something you don't have any experience in and leave it at that.
Haha...Why are you so upset, because I have shared one of many "anecdotal experiences" of mine with you here? Or, maybe you just piss off yourself. The fact being wrong for so long (10 years?) in Vancouver must hurts you,eh? :P
 
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu May 14, 2015 2:41 pm

"Geyser"]
wow.... the market may not crash but I don't see any upside to prices in the near future, whatsoever. :shock:
I certainly lean towards your second prediction but I'm thinking that the only things that has been driving prices are crazy low interest rates and FSB fear or HAM expectations of big future price increases. Remove either or both of those motivators and look out below!
don't be so freekin daft
It's the immigration
That's why prices only flying high in Toronto and Vancouver - the two biggest immigrant destinations.
After all, interest rates are the same in Edmonton and Ottawa as here - and those markets are stagnant.
Use your head bud
Ah! So when Vancouver house prices collapsed by as much as 50% in 1982, and during all the other times that home prices have tumbled here and in Toronto, it was because we had no immigration in those years? I really didn't know that, can you please post your sources?

I didn't notice a pause in 2008 when our prices were tumbling either. It took massive government intervention to reverse that slide. :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
HomelessinSD
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu May 14, 2015 4:38 pm

Deflecting again?

Own your claims, admit when you make a post that is just plain inaccurate. In other words , man up.
 
westcoastfella
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu May 14, 2015 6:06 pm

Haha...Why are you so upset, because I have shared one of many "anecdotal experiences" of mine with you here? Or, maybe you just piss off yourself. The fact being wrong for so long (10 years?) in Vancouver must hurts you,eh? :P
probably because your anecdote does not reflect reality or historical fact... but for some reason you're sticking to it as a reflection of a broader reality. Just guessing...

Its pretty difficult to argue that Chinese dominated sections of SF or LA didn't experience any price drop at all (and in fact continued to go up), while non-Chinese neighbourhoods all around them went down 40-50 percent. You're a logical person, surely you must see that it makes no sense.
 
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu May 14, 2015 6:47 pm

"Geyser"

Ah! So when Vancouver house prices collapsed by as much as 50% in 1982, and during all the other times that home prices have tumbled here and in Toronto, it was because we had no immigration in those years?
1982 immigration 100K. In fact, very few years over 200K since 1867
But since 1988 200K every year, and mostly over 250K
Next time bring your teacher an apple
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thompson2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu May 14, 2015 7:00 pm

Deflecting again?

Own your claims, admit when you make a post that is just plain inaccurate. In other words , man up.
Eh? I just predict that the market of Vancouver for the next two years: there is no risk of crash whatsoever; and the correction, if there is any, will be shallow ( max 25%) and short lived (few years, rather than decades). I also gave my reason for the prediction : because of Chinese. I thought I have man up enough, no? :lol:

Sure, you saw a 30% correction in your hometown in US that is bigger than what I suggested for the Vancouver (25%), but big deal. Vancouver has more Chinese population than your city's. By the way, I don't think you have any idea or data to show us how big a correction could be if there is no Chinese present in your town...maybe 40 to 50% dropping? Hey, one thing you may know Las Vegas dropped 75% and the most Chinese live in the hotel of Casinos. :P

Homeless, if you man up, why don't you just admit that you are so wrong about real estate Vancouver over the past 10 years? Ha, You are a homeowner? Big deal. How many properties did you buy beside your principle residence since the financial crisis? If answer is big O, then you haven't make any money in real estate yet, all the profits are still hang on the paper, right? ... Eyes will confirm that to you. :lol:
 
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thompson2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu May 14, 2015 7:19 pm

Haha...Why are you so upset, because I have shared one of many "anecdotal experiences" of mine with you here? Or, maybe you just piss off yourself. The fact being wrong for so long (10 years?) in Vancouver must hurts you,eh? :P
probably because your anecdote does not reflect reality or historical fact... but for some reason you're sticking to it as a reflection of a broader reality. Just guessing...

Its pretty difficult to argue that Chinese dominated sections of SF or LA didn't experience any price drop at all (and in fact continued to go up), while non-Chinese neighbourhoods all around them went down 40-50 percent. You're a logical person, surely you must see that it makes no sense.
If you read my posts carefully, you will find Homeless put lots words which I didn't say into my mouth. As I mentioned before, it was a business trip for me to LA, I also spent good time to visit other cities, such Seattle, San Francisco, Riverside, etc. I always do that before buying, field trip is very important to me or to anybody, so I think I know what I am talking about. :)
 
westcoastfella
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu May 14, 2015 8:01 pm

If you read my posts carefully, you will find Homeless put lots words which I didn't say into my mouth. As I mentioned before, it was a business trip for me to LA, I also spent good time to visit other cities, such Seattle, San Francisco, Riverside, etc. I always do that before buying, field trip is very important to me or to anybody, so I think I know what I am talking about. :)
You said this:

"but maybe you should look at what happened in US since 2006, .... there was no crash whatsoever in the areas that with high density of Chinese population"

It is incorrect, period. The Chinese do not have some kind of "midas touch", and history has shown that their neighbourhoods will fall in value just as much as non-Chinese neighbourhoods when shit hits the fan. I'm sure you do a lot of research before you invest, I certainly cannot believe that you are basing your investments on this premise...
 
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thompson2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Thu May 14, 2015 9:13 pm

You said this:

"but maybe you should look at what happened in US since 2006, .... there was no crash whatsoever in the areas that with high density of Chinese population"

It is incorrect, period.

Did I ? Ok, I did. But It is a correct statement in many areas.

Look, I didn't say city, or cities, I used "area" or "areas" . :lol: There are many areas in a city. It is important to realize that many details can be and will be disappeared in the data treatment, such as "average", "medium" or "bench mark", etc, it's kind of statistical dilution.

Beside the zoning problem, political correction is another. No one collects and publishes data based on races. Just like people who claims it is Chinese who bought Vancouver up, is it a correct statement? yes, anyone who go to open house once or twice will confirm that, but do we have any data to prove it? No.

I am not going to convince anyone here, investment is not science, it's more like art, so believe whatever you want to believe, but in the end of the day, we have to open our pockets to show what we got from the market.
The Chinese do not have some kind of "midas touch", and history has shown that their neighbourhoods will fall in value just as much as non-Chinese neighbourhoods when shit hits the fan.
It's not "midas touch", is cultural difference. Maybe Chinese are dump in many ways, but they are in general good at financial plans, and tend to hold their properties for a long period, sometimes for the generations. Real estate market certainly reflects those factors one way or another.
I'm sure you do a lot of research before you invest, I certainly cannot believe that you are basing your investments on this premise...
I always avoid Chinese neighborhood because the prices are not cheap enough compare to other areas. So... believe it, please. :lol:
 
HomelessinSD
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Fri May 15, 2015 7:11 am

If you read my posts carefully, you will find Homeless put lots words which I didn't say into my mouth.
I've re-read my responses to your claims, and I can't see where I've misquoted you. I've asked you to confirm your statement with a series of questions, but you are dodged / deflected every time.
Homeless, if you man up, why don't you just admit that you are so wrong about real estate Vancouver over the past 10 years? Ha, You are a homeowner? Big deal. How many properties did you buy beside your principle residence since the financial crisis? If answer is big O, then you haven't make any money in real estate yet, all the profits are still hang on the paper, right?
I see. Because I'm not a big time real estate investor, calling you out on an completely inaccurate statement doesn't have any merit.

Although many of the old posts have been wiped from this forum, I can tell you that I have made very few (if any) predictions on the Vancouver real estate market. When on topic about Vancouver real estate, posts have generally been about local incomes, price vs rent ratios, comparisons to other North American metropolitan cities, the necessity to consider what would happen if the market went down, and that buyers have been counting on price appreciation for financial justification to make a real estate purchases in Vancouver. I've also frequently commented on the irrational exuberance within the market. Obviously, that paints me as bearish.

Based on what has happened within the market over the past ten years, none of that has mattered - the market has skyrocketed. So yes, I have been dead wrong. Looking at traditional metrics and trying to apply them to the Vancouver residential real estate market has been wrong. It has been different this time.

I have also freely admitted that I didn't think it was a good idea to buy in SF in 2007, but did so for family reasons. Had I been living in the Vancouver area during that time, I would have made the same commitment to real estate here. I don't think that would make me any smarter, just a whole lot luckier.

On a related note (since you've already posted something that is completely inaccurate), where did you get your Asian figures from that you posted earlier? Albeit Wikipedia, which I hate referring to but it is the easiest to google, the metro Vancouver Chinese population is 18% whereas the San Francisco bay area is over 21%. I realize you used "Asian" as opposed to "Chinese" (even though it you appear to argue it's the Chinese areas that are immune to crashes), but I would be interested to know where you go the figures from and what ethnicity makes up the 25% of Asians in metro Vancouver.
 
HomelessinSD
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Fri May 15, 2015 7:16 am

all the profits are still hang on the paper, right?
Not all the profits... due to high rent yields and being cash flow positive, profits (although fairly insignificant compared to potential appreciation profits) have been realized over the past couple of years. As you are owner of multiple rental units, you must be very familiar with the situation.
 
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thompson2
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Fri May 15, 2015 9:11 am

Real estate prices of Chinese areas were hold very well during the financial crisis is not a secret to Chinese community, it had been on news paper many times, and was consistent with my personal experience. Following just one report published in a Chinese news paper few years ago, you may read it though the Google translation (I am little busy today). I thought there were no "data" to support my statement, but, actually, there are, many data around San Francisco!

Can your Chinese wife read Chinese , Homeless? Please shut up and let her read it for you. It seems to me you don't know Vancouver and ... SanFrancisco very well. :lol:
华人一向注重子女教育,对教育的投资不遗余力。不论新老移民,脚步尚未站稳,子女入学便已摆上全家议题。但凡旧金山湾区的好学区,附近一定聚集大量华人家庭,即使买不起,也不惜支付高额租金。在金融危机阴影笼罩下的房地产业一片低迷中,这些地区的房屋价格却一路坚挺。
美国房地产信息网站DataQuick的最新统计显示,旧金山湾区九个郡104个城市中,今年九月的房屋中间价与去年同期相比,都有不同程度的下跌,最高达46.62%。但华人集聚的奥伯尼、伯克利、旧金山日落区、柏林甘姆、密尔布瑞、帕洛阿图、萨拉托加、库柏蒂诺以及佛利蒙等市、区拥有在全美以及加州排名前列的公立高中,房价却未出现大幅下跌。
以旧金山东湾阿拉米达郡为例,全郡今年九月中间房价为三十八万五千美元,比去年同期下跌了31.25%。而拥有明星高中的小城奥伯尼,与加州大学伯克利分校相邻,九月房屋中间价六十九万四千美元,比去年同期的五十八万二千五百美元上升了19.14%。
斯坦福大学所在城市帕洛阿图拥有两所优秀高中,九月中间房价为一百一十五万二千五百美元,比去年同期上升了12.8%。
次贷危机引发的金融风暴,为华人中精明成熟的投资者创造了商机。房地产市场越是低迷,越是他们出手的时机。
 
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Re: Vancouver indvidual property sales details

Fri May 15, 2015 10:02 am

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