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Trends for 2018

Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:47 pm
by rofina
Another year. 

Seeing some familiar names pop up around here. Glad to see you all still alive and aggravating each other as always. 

Hard to believe its been a decade since the last real correction around here. 

What do you all see for 2018? 

Little late in the year - spring seems to be off to a lacklustre start, but inventory is very slow to build. Discounts abound in the multi-million dollar SFH segment, but not so much in the levels most us mere mortals operate in.

Some thoughts, questions:
  1. Will Strata/SFH continue to diverge?
  2. Do we see a real correction this year? IE: 10%+?
  3. Have the different levels of Govt overreacted with the latest rounds of housing measures?
Anyway. Good to see all of you still alive and kicking, hope life has been kind to you all. 

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:53 pm
by VanBullBear
Expect a minimum of 5% correction this year, 10% seems more likely.

The condo/detached divergence is just people trying to grab what they can out of frenzy. This will correct itself once people sober up - this takes time.

This is the year where people snap out of their delusion and realize that prices do not go straight upwards.

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Sun Mar 11, 2018 6:23 am
by Harahomes
rofina wrote:
Another year. 

Seeing some familiar names pop up around here. Glad to see you all still alive and aggravating each other as always. 

Hard to believe its been a decade since the last real correction around here. 

What do you all see for 2018? 

Little late in the year - spring seems to be off to a lacklustre start, but inventory is very slow to build. Discounts abound in the multi-million dollar SFH segment, but not so much in the levels most us mere mortals operate in.

Some thoughts, questions:
  1. Will Strata/SFH continue to diverge?
  2. Do we see a real correction this year? IE: 10%+?
  3. Have the different levels of Govt overreacted with the latest rounds of housing measures?
Anyway. Good to see all of you still alive and kicking, hope life has been kind to you all. 

1.  Homes over 2 million will lose value.  Homes at 2 millionish will stay pretty constant.  We will see money coming back into the market from west of the fraser river.   If the tax is a constant why will people want to "invest" or buy in areas like surrey, hope, Victoria and the interior.
2 We will see a correction for the first part of the year similar to what happened when the 15% tax was introduced.  Once people get over it I expect to see sales getting hotter in the fall.  However only in Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Moody, and parts of East Vancouver
3 The different levels of government have really messed this up.  They are only hurting first time home buyers or people trying to enter the market.  The NDP is taxing the crap out of everyone, which to me seems like a total tax grab on people that have worked hard.  The NDP will hurt the economy in the long run.  Give it a year, you will start seeing people bitching and complaining about increased taxes and fees.  Hey you guys wanted higher taxes which you thought would help you bottom line, but it wont.  FAST FERRIES part 2

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 1:15 pm
by reallyreal2
Harahomes wrote:
rofina wrote:
Another year. 

Seeing some familiar names pop up around here. Glad to see you all still alive and aggravating each other as always. 

Hard to believe its been a decade since the last real correction around here. 

What do you all see for 2018? 

Little late in the year - spring seems to be off to a lacklustre start, but inventory is very slow to build. Discounts abound in the multi-million dollar SFH segment, but not so much in the levels most us mere mortals operate in.

Some thoughts, questions:
  1. Will Strata/SFH continue to diverge?
  2. Do we see a real correction this year? IE: 10%+?
  3. Have the different levels of Govt overreacted with the latest rounds of housing measures?
Anyway. Good to see all of you still alive and kicking, hope life has been kind to you all. 

1.  Homes over 2 million will lose value.  Homes at 2 millionish will stay pretty constant.  We will see money coming back into the market from west of the fraser river.   If the tax is a constant why will people want to "invest" or buy in areas like surrey, hope, Victoria and the interior.
2 We will see a correction for the first part of the year similar to what happened when the 15% tax was introduced.  Once people get over it I expect to see sales getting hotter in the fall.  However only in Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Moody, and parts of East Vancouver
3 The different levels of government have really messed this up.  They are only hurting first time home buyers or people trying to enter the market.  The NDP is taxing the crap out of everyone, which to me seems like a total tax grab on people that have worked hard.  The NDP will hurt the economy in the long run.  Give it a year, you will start seeing people bitching and complaining about increased taxes and fees.  Hey you guys wanted higher taxes which you thought would help you bottom line, but it wont.  FAST FERRIES part 2

How do $2m+ homes lose value but under $2M stay flat? 
If I was in the market for a $2M home and there is one that was $2.5 18 months ago for sale for $2.1M now.... why would I buy the one that is $2M flat over the same period?
It's like saying an Audi will come down in price but a VW won't - at some point those in the market for a VW will just pay the smaller premium to get something far superior.
Either way - I don't think prices move one way or the other that much.  This will all be a chicken little routine by those that don't want the NDP in power - but it will be the same old crooked government.  

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:18 pm
by SethM
rofina wrote:
Another year. 

Seeing some familiar names pop up around here. Glad to see you all still alive and aggravating each other as always. 

Hard to believe its been a decade since the last real correction around here. 

What do you all see for 2018? 

Little late in the year - spring seems to be off to a lacklustre start, but inventory is very slow to build. Discounts abound in the multi-million dollar SFH segment, but not so much in the levels most us mere mortals operate in.

Some thoughts, questions:
  1. Will Strata/SFH continue to diverge?
  2. Do we see a real correction this year? IE: 10%+?
  3. Have the different levels of Govt overreacted with the latest rounds of housing measures?
Anyway. Good to see all of you still alive and kicking, hope life has been kind to you all. 

NDP will mute the housing taxes. Vancouver market is over bought. Prices will be flat to up slightly. 

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:51 pm
by thompson2
SethM wrote:
rofina wrote:
Another year. 

Seeing some familiar names pop up around here. Glad to see you all still alive and aggravating each other as always. 

Hard to believe its been a decade since the last real correction around here. 

What do you all see for 2018? 

Little late in the year - spring seems to be off to a lacklustre start, but inventory is very slow to build. Discounts abound in the multi-million dollar SFH segment, but not so much in the levels most us mere mortals operate in.

Some thoughts, questions:
  1. Will Strata/SFH continue to diverge?
  2. Do we see a real correction this year? IE: 10%+?
  3. Have the different levels of Govt overreacted with the latest rounds of housing measures?
Anyway. Good to see all of you still alive and kicking, hope life has been kind to you all. 

NDP will mute the housing taxes. Vancouver market is over bought. Prices will be flat to up slightly. 

We should separate condo with sfh. condo may still have 1/2 to 1 year good life. 

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Mon Mar 12, 2018 3:55 pm
by eyesthebye2
How do $2m+ homes lose value but under $2M stay flat


That's what's been happening since 2016.
2M plus market is not the same as under 2M. If immigration and foreign buyers are effected it will certainly mean problems with the West side...the over 2M homes

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 6:50 am
by rofina
eyesthebye2 wrote:
How do $2m+ homes lose value but under $2M stay flat


That's what's been happening since 2016.
2M plus market is not the same as under 2M. If immigration and foreign buyers are effected it will certainly mean problems with the West side...the over 2M homes

I'm inclined to agree with Eyes here.
Buyer pool for under 2 million seems more like locals with equity money from a townhouse or condo looking to move up. Equity money typically wont be getting you into a house over 2 million on income alone.

I realize this is a generalisation, locals buy over 2 million. This is more based on the type of demographic I been seeing at open houses around the $1.5 mark. 
The x-factor would be a more punishing decline in the luxury segment. I don't see how steep haircuts there eventually wouldn't translate down to lower levels. 
What is already more evident is builders offloading lots and future projects. Seen a few boarded up houses being listed and sitting. 

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:58 am
by eyesthebye2
rofina wrote:
eyesthebye2 wrote:
How do $2m+ homes lose value but under $2M stay flat


That's what's been happening since 2016.
2M plus market is not the same as under 2M. If immigration and foreign buyers are effected it will certainly mean problems with the West side...the over 2M homes

I'm inclined to agree with Eyes here.
Buyer pool for under 2 million seems more like locals with equity money from a townhouse or condo looking to move up. Equity money typically wont be getting you into a house over 2 million on income alone.

I realize this is a generalisation, locals buy over 2 million. This is more based on the type of demographic I been seeing at open houses around the $1.5 mark. 
The x-factor would be a more punishing decline in the luxury segment. I don't see how steep haircuts there eventually wouldn't translate down to lower levels. 
What is already more evident is builders offloading lots and future projects. Seen a few boarded up houses being listed and sitting. 

I keep track of the sales on under 2M market. The floor has not moved - not one bit. You still cannot get a decent home on a standard sized lot for under about 1.2M...this is pretty much the same as 3 years ago.
There are currently 1494 detached properties for sale in Vancouver proper. Only 340 of them are under 2M. With developers also scrambling to buy those properties it makes for a pretty tight squeeze.
Vancouver might be the #1 city in the world with homeowners who would not sell their home no matter how much money you offered them.

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:59 am
by 2000sqft
reallyreal2 wrote:
Harahomes wrote:
rofina wrote:
Another year. 

Seeing some familiar names pop up around here. Glad to see you all still alive and aggravating each other as always. 

Hard to believe its been a decade since the last real correction around here. 

What do you all see for 2018? 

Little late in the year - spring seems to be off to a lacklustre start, but inventory is very slow to build. Discounts abound in the multi-million dollar SFH segment, but not so much in the levels most us mere mortals operate in.

Some thoughts, questions:
  1. Will Strata/SFH continue to diverge?
  2. Do we see a real correction this year? IE: 10%+?
  3. Have the different levels of Govt overreacted with the latest rounds of housing measures?
Anyway. Good to see all of you still alive and kicking, hope life has been kind to you all. 

1.  Homes over 2 million will lose value.  Homes at 2 millionish will stay pretty constant.  We will see money coming back into the market from west of the fraser river.   If the tax is a constant why will people want to "invest" or buy in areas like surrey, hope, Victoria and the interior.
2 We will see a correction for the first part of the year similar to what happened when the 15% tax was introduced.  Once people get over it I expect to see sales getting hotter in the fall.  However only in Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Moody, and parts of East Vancouver
3 The different levels of government have really messed this up.  They are only hurting first time home buyers or people trying to enter the market.  The NDP is taxing the crap out of everyone, which to me seems like a total tax grab on people that have worked hard.  The NDP will hurt the economy in the long run.  Give it a year, you will start seeing people bitching and complaining about increased taxes and fees.  Hey you guys wanted higher taxes which you thought would help you bottom line, but it wont.  FAST FERRIES part 2

How do $2m+ homes lose value but under $2M stay flat? 
If I was in the market for a $2M home and there is one that was $2.5 18 months ago for sale for $2.1M now.... why would I buy the one that is $2M flat over the same period?
It's like saying an Audi will come down in price but a VW won't - at some point those in the market for a VW will just pay the smaller premium to get something far superior.
Either way - I don't think prices move one way or the other that much.  This will all be a chicken little routine by those that don't want the NDP in power - but it will be the same old crooked government.  

L
O
L

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:45 am
by rofina
eyesthebye2 wrote:
rofina wrote:
eyesthebye2 wrote:

That's what's been happening since 2016.
2M plus market is not the same as under 2M. If immigration and foreign buyers are effected it will certainly mean problems with the West side...the over 2M homes

I'm inclined to agree with Eyes here.
Buyer pool for under 2 million seems more like locals with equity money from a townhouse or condo looking to move up. Equity money typically wont be getting you into a house over 2 million on income alone.

I realize this is a generalisation, locals buy over 2 million. This is more based on the type of demographic I been seeing at open houses around the $1.5 mark. 
The x-factor would be a more punishing decline in the luxury segment. I don't see how steep haircuts there eventually wouldn't translate down to lower levels. 
What is already more evident is builders offloading lots and future projects. Seen a few boarded up houses being listed and sitting. 

I keep track of the sales on under 2M market. The floor has not moved - not one bit. You still cannot get a decent home on a standard sized lot for under about 1.2M...this is pretty much the same as 3 years ago.
There are currently 1494 detached properties for sale in Vancouver proper. Only 340 of them are under 2M. With developers also scrambling to buy those properties it makes for a pretty tight squeeze.
Vancouver might be the #1 city in the world with homeowners who would not sell their home no matter how much money you offered them.

Agree on all points but one.
I don't think builders are nearly as active in the market at the moment - maybe HaraHomes can elaborate. The way I read it - there are no "deals" at the low levels that would justify buying, when properties over 2 million are generally sitting. 
If you buy a lot at $1.2, you need have a $2.5 house on there to make money. Not sure there is the appetite for that risk right now among the builders.

Edit: Here is an example:

This is listed at $2.1
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Sing ... bia-V5C2Y3

They bought lot for $1.3, 2 years ago.
Carrying costs, building costs, permits etc - say $650,000
$1,950,000 total.

Realtor commission, assuming it sells for asking, what does that net the builder $100,000?

Don't think that's a deal I would be making.

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 10:59 am
by eyesthebye2
rofina wrote:
eyesthebye2 wrote:
rofina wrote:
I'm inclined to agree with Eyes here.
Buyer pool for under 2 million seems more like locals with equity money from a townhouse or condo looking to move up. Equity money typically wont be getting you into a house over 2 million on income alone.

I realize this is a generalisation, locals buy over 2 million. This is more based on the type of demographic I been seeing at open houses around the $1.5 mark. 
The x-factor would be a more punishing decline in the luxury segment. I don't see how steep haircuts there eventually wouldn't translate down to lower levels. 
What is already more evident is builders offloading lots and future projects. Seen a few boarded up houses being listed and sitting. 

I keep track of the sales on under 2M market. The floor has not moved - not one bit. You still cannot get a decent home on a standard sized lot for under about 1.2M...this is pretty much the same as 3 years ago.
There are currently 1494 detached properties for sale in Vancouver proper. Only 340 of them are under 2M. With developers also scrambling to buy those properties it makes for a pretty tight squeeze.
Vancouver might be the #1 city in the world with homeowners who would not sell their home no matter how much money you offered them.

Agree on all points but one.
I don't think builders are nearly as active in the market at the moment - maybe HaraHomes can elaborate. The way I read it - there are no "deals" at the low levels that would justify buying, when properties over 2 million are generally sitting. 
If you buy a lot at $1.2, you need have a $2.5 house on there to make money. Not sure there is the appetite for that risk right now among the builders.

Edit: Here is an example:

This is listed at $2.1
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Sing ... bia-V5C2Y3

They bought lot for $1.3, 2 years ago.
Carrying costs, building costs, permits etc - say $650,000
$1,950,000 total.

Realtor commission, assuming it sells for asking, what does that net the builder $100,000?

Don't think that's a deal I would be making.

I think your $650,000 estimate is high. Houses without basements are the ones that are built cheaply.
A developer here on RET said he could build for a shade over $100/sqft. That means this one is likely under $400,00 carrying costs, permits, buidling etc.
Plenty of profit here with a sale at 2.1M

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:35 am
by reallyreal2
eyesthebye2 wrote:
rofina wrote:
eyesthebye2 wrote:
I keep track of the sales on under 2M market. The floor has not moved - not one bit. You still cannot get a decent home on a standard sized lot for under about 1.2M...this is pretty much the same as 3 years ago.
There are currently 1494 detached properties for sale in Vancouver proper. Only 340 of them are under 2M. With developers also scrambling to buy those properties it makes for a pretty tight squeeze.
Vancouver might be the #1 city in the world with homeowners who would not sell their home no matter how much money you offered them.

Agree on all points but one.
I don't think builders are nearly as active in the market at the moment - maybe HaraHomes can elaborate. The way I read it - there are no "deals" at the low levels that would justify buying, when properties over 2 million are generally sitting. 
If you buy a lot at $1.2, you need have a $2.5 house on there to make money. Not sure there is the appetite for that risk right now among the builders.

Edit: Here is an example:

This is listed at $2.1
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Sing ... bia-V5C2Y3

They bought lot for $1.3, 2 years ago.
Carrying costs, building costs, permits etc - say $650,000
$1,950,000 total.

Realtor commission, assuming it sells for asking, what does that net the builder $100,000?

Don't think that's a deal I would be making.

I think your $650,000 estimate is high. Houses without basements are the ones that are built cheaply.
A developer here on RET said he could build for a shade over $100/sqft. That means this one is likely under $400,00 carrying costs, permits, buidling etc.
Plenty of profit here with a sale at 2.1M

$400K - LOL

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 11:38 am
by rofina
eyesthebye2 wrote:
rofina wrote:
eyesthebye2 wrote:
I keep track of the sales on under 2M market. The floor has not moved - not one bit. You still cannot get a decent home on a standard sized lot for under about 1.2M...this is pretty much the same as 3 years ago.
There are currently 1494 detached properties for sale in Vancouver proper. Only 340 of them are under 2M. With developers also scrambling to buy those properties it makes for a pretty tight squeeze.
Vancouver might be the #1 city in the world with homeowners who would not sell their home no matter how much money you offered them.

Agree on all points but one.
I don't think builders are nearly as active in the market at the moment - maybe HaraHomes can elaborate. The way I read it - there are no "deals" at the low levels that would justify buying, when properties over 2 million are generally sitting. 
If you buy a lot at $1.2, you need have a $2.5 house on there to make money. Not sure there is the appetite for that risk right now among the builders.

Edit: Here is an example:

This is listed at $2.1
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Sing ... bia-V5C2Y3

They bought lot for $1.3, 2 years ago.
Carrying costs, building costs, permits etc - say $650,000
$1,950,000 total.

Realtor commission, assuming it sells for asking, what does that net the builder $100,000?

Don't think that's a deal I would be making.

I think your $650,000 estimate is high. Houses without basements are the ones that are built cheaply.
A developer here on RET said he could build for a shade over $100/sqft. That means this one is likely under $400,00 carrying costs, permits, buidling etc.
Plenty of profit here with a sale at 2.1M

Interesting - if they can have the house up for $400,000, definitely still a healthy margin in place.
That would imply building costs somewhere around $150 sq/ft. Seems quite low for Burnaby/Van, but I wouldn't bet on it. 

Re: Trends for 2018

Posted: Tue Mar 13, 2018 7:09 pm
by HomelessinSD
First: No way you can build in metro Vancouver right now for close to $100 / sf. That was barely possible 15 years ago by experienced builders, building their own homes. And the required finishes for a new, $2millon home at $100 / sf?

Second: Small time (single family home people) developers have all run for the hills. Permit applications for new builds have completely dried up - they are sitting on the sidelines and those that are building have slowed down the construction schedules on the houses they are building. Confidence is gone. Despite what ETB thinks, developers aren't waiting for land costs to drop: Developer's focus is the back end. If the back end isn't there, they won't take the risk on the front end.

Prices may be flat, but not much is moving.