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jimtan
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Is the boom over?

Mon Dec 04, 2017 8:38 pm

Steve has done his analysis...

"Total Dollars Spent on Vancouver Real Estate Drops 15% This Year"

http://vancitycondoguide.com/dollars-sp ... al-estate/


An important indicator is the lack of momentum in detached housing in land scarce Vancouver. See the attached chart. Dollar sales volume is back to 2014 level where the last big push started.
Attachments
Van detached sales volume.JPG
Van detached sales volume.JPG (30.18 KiB) Viewed 2374 times
 
jimtan
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Re: Is the boom over?

Fri Dec 08, 2017 8:50 am

Looks like the market is stabilizing. Still, the anti-bubble measures have yet to take effect. This would be serious...

"Mortgage Stress Test Could Eliminate 12% of Vancouver Buyers"

http://vancitycondoguide.com/boc-financial-review/

"New mortgage stress test rules will block 50,000 people from buying: mortgage group"

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mortgag ... -1.4433319
 
jimtan
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Re: Is the boom over?

Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:00 am

Just like the Japanese before their bubble burst. In 1991 They paid record amounts for real estate and works of art. Then, bang!

“White Spot site sale rings in at $245M, set for residential development
The large plot of land on West Georgia Street has been sold to Carnival International Holdings Ltd...”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-c ... -1.4463594



Gotta rein in the foreign money …

“Foreign ownership of real estate rises in Montreal, new data shows

… The non-resident share in Montreal climbed from 1.1 per cent in 2016 to 1.7 per cent in 2017, according to a report by Canada Mortgage Housing Corporation (CMHC) in collaboration with Statistics Canada. 

Downtown and Nuns' Island reported the largest increase in the Montreal area, up from 4.3 per cent in 2016 to 7.6 per cent this year.”

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/foreign-owner ... 57217.html


Have a Happy New Year  8)
 
Writeoff
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Re: Is the boom over?

Tue Dec 26, 2017 11:50 pm

The market is stabilizing after thousands are being priced out and are scrambling to find a rental!

It's like a train just arrived but full and the desperate riders are waiting for the next one. The stress test will be stressed like many other tests before it. But this time it is ensured that everyone goes through the insured mortgage loop. Foreign buyers are only 5 % of the market, but how many are buying through their cronies, we don't know and may never know.  :D

Happy new year 2018
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Is the boom over?

Wed Dec 27, 2017 6:10 pm

For 2017 I saw softening of high end detached. Although the ceiling has come down, I saw absolutely no movement in the detached floor.

Condo and Attached market strengthened as pent up buyers gave up on buying detached and settled for what the could afford. Many of these buyers wanting to lock in low rates.

Rentals remained in short supply, basically providing a guarantee there will be no desperation selling among the investors and speculators.
 
jimtan
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Re: Is the boom over?

Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:07 pm

thanks to hard working Steve. 

"Canadian Real Estate Charts to Watch In 2018"

http://vancitycondoguide.com/charts-to-watch-2018/


Plenty of interesting charts. But, the chart to watch is this...
Attachments
Higher mortgage Costs.JPG
Higher mortgage Costs.JPG (50.21 KiB) Viewed 1939 times
 
jimtan
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Re: Is the boom over?

Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:01 am

"Toronto Home Prices Fall for Seventh Month as Lending Tightens"


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... g-tightens
Attachments
TREB Dec2017.JPG
TREB Dec2017.JPG (62.98 KiB) Viewed 1827 times
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Is the boom over?

Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:08 pm

We should all feel fortunate if boom or bust is over. A long long stretch of market stability is what we need here.

The lack of housing purchase options is gutting Vancouver of its workforce. It's basically either you buy an overpriced condo that is not suitable for a family, or hope to be able to rent a house at 3k/month.

REZONE!
 
reallyreal2
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Re: Is the boom over?

Sun Jan 07, 2018 8:55 pm

We could just squat in Pt Grey mansions that aren’t being used. The owners wouldn’t even notice LOL
 
eyesthebye2
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Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am

Re: Is the boom over?

Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:30 pm

reallyreal2 wrote:
We could just squat in Pt Grey mansions that aren’t being used. The owners wouldn’t even notice LOL


Isn't there a policy that If you can squat for a year without being removed then you own the property?
 
reallyreal2
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Re: Is the boom over?

Mon Jan 08, 2018 9:58 am

eyesthebye2 wrote:
reallyreal2 wrote:
We could just squat in Pt Grey mansions that aren’t being used.  The owners wouldn’t even notice LOL


Isn't there a policy that If you can squat for a year without being removed then you own the property?

Let's do it!  
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Is the boom over?

Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:24 am

reallyreal2 wrote:
eyesthebye2 wrote:
reallyreal2 wrote:
We could just squat in Pt Grey mansions that aren’t being used.  The owners wouldn’t even notice LOL


Isn't there a policy that If you can squat for a year without being removed then you own the property?

Let's do it!  


They still have squatters rights in the UK, but it's was eliminated by law in BC in 1975
 
jimtan
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Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: Is the boom over?

Wed Jan 10, 2018 9:32 pm

Some of us were partially correct ...

"Vancouver Real Estate Year In Review 2017


... The average sales price of a detached home fell 6.5% in 2017 from $2,825,000 to $2,642,000. The median sales price dropped 13% from $2,300,000 to $1,999,000. Again these metrics are not perfect, most of the price movements came from the higher end. But with a full years worth of data it’s clear the trend was down for the detached market..."


http://vancitycondoguide.com/year-in-review-2017/
 
VanBullBear
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Re: Is the boom over?

Mon Jan 22, 2018 4:22 pm

The market topped for detached back in  2016...
Tops in major bull markets are almost always messy. This reflects the undecided psychology of buyers and sellers.
Just look at the average sale prices, it drops down and goes back up with low volume rallies. This is classic characteristic of the dying gasps of a bull market.

On a fundamental perspective there's a lot of downward pressure and momentum building up
- interest rate hikes
- stress tests
- china tightening on capital control
- canadian dollar strengthening from oil price recovery and the interest hikes
- change in government

You can argue immigration but how many of these immigrants are coming in here downpayment to buy 1.5mil + detached. Really there's not that many people in this group hence the low volume.
Actually at these prices even the condo markets are unreachable to most immigrants.

The hysteria/euphoria has moved on from the detached, we are seeing it on the condo market. why? because the detached is out of reach...
There is so much FOMO in this bull market and the market participants are your typical income earners. It's really sad to see really.

Nobody knows the future, but you need to consider the Risk. Risks are measured in probability and impact.
What's the probability of the market rising. vs Flattening vs declining. What are the impacts for each scenario?

If you can do this analysis with a clear mind and still decide to buy, then all the power to you.
However, if you're just closing your eyes and  buying because you think you'll never be able to get in if you don't buy now (FOMO) you're just rolling the dice.
 
eyesthebye2
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Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am

Re: Is the boom over?

Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:50 pm

The day of reckoning for condos is nigh.
As soon as the BC govt closes the loophole on presale assignments it will be over.
I'm pretty sure developers will be required to disclose transfers, and each buyer/seller will be required to pay the applicable taxes, every time a unit changes hands.

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