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tdma800
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Thu Dec 29, 2016 9:36 pm

Its a new normal and things are different here.  Even C21 or Coldwell Banker are more related to Vancouver than lepage
 
Geyser
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Fri Dec 30, 2016 5:10 pm

Sorry, I dont see that happening. If recent history has taught us anything, its that a lack of sales creates a backlog of demand.  Buyers have sat out the last 3 months...almost entirely. This pent up demand will most certainly halt the 2016 slide in prices.
With record sales volume for 2016 - has it occurred to you that perhaps we have borrowed from future demand?  There is nothing left to "pent up".  And there won't be anything "pent up" for years because nobody can afford to live here - well at least SFH.
Demand is coming from population growth. If population retracts prices will do same in lock step. Tell me that immigration is subsiding and ill believe that prices can decrease for more than about six months.

And sales volume was first of 2016 and mads thereafter. I fully expect market April and onward to be brisk in 2017.
Sorry ETB2, the stats prove otherwise. Do you remember 1982 when Vancouver's SFH prices plummeted by between 40% and 50%? Immigration was steady throughout that year and continued throughout the years of home price stagnation which followed.
Also, note that from 2011 until 2015 the population of the city of Vancouver grew by only 1.2% per year but prices certainly did not move in lockstep with that very modest population growth.  Perhaps unrealistically cheap mortgages, FOMO and soaking up years of future demand had an effect. :shock:
 http://www.bcbc.com/images/top20bcmunic ... lation.png


Here is an observation from the Census, it also undermines you theory of prices moving in lockstep with immigration.

"When the 2011 census was taken last May 10, the population of the actual city of Vancouver was 603,502 up from 578,041 in 2006."

So let's do the math, 1.2% of 603,500. Wow! That's over 7,000 new residents per year. Given the fact that many of those residents arrive in family groups, I can see the potential demand for two or three thousand new homes, some rental and some purchase, and many who will fill the ever growing number of basement suites created by cash strapped SFH owners.


Also, have you seen how many new homes are being constructed? Have you seen the number of multi-million-dollar condos going up in the Downtown core?   Grossly inflated prices, rising interest rates, lots of new supply and weak population growth all add up to one highly predictable result.  

End of argument. :)
 
tdma800
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:42 pm

Other than the irrelevant picture, unrelated to any poster,  educated people know that Gays , especially in downtown vancouver  have an above average income compared to the general population.

to the moon!
 
jimtan
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:46 pm

Other than the irrelevant picture, unrelated to any poster,  educated people know that Gays , especially in downtown vancouver  have an above average income compared to the general population.

to the moon!
You make Geyser look like Albert Einstein.
 
tdma800
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Fri Dec 30, 2016 6:57 pm

thousands upon thousands coming to vancouver per year.  to the moon!
 
Geyser
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Sat Dec 31, 2016 3:37 pm

Other than the irrelevant picture, unrelated to any poster,  educated people know that Gays , especially in downtown vancouver  have an above average income compared to the general population.

to the moon!
You make Geyser look like Albert Einstein.
I must admit that Albert and I do share some physical characteristics, but he was always much better at doing sums. :D
 
tdma800
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Sat Dec 31, 2016 3:54 pm

Lepage isnt even about vancouver
 
jimtan
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:45 pm

:wink:

Here's an article with a cute picture.

"Between a Rock and a Hard Place

... The 5 year Canadian Government bonds are also heavily influenced by their US counterparts. “Five years is sort of the middle ground, the pivot point where both U.S. and Canadian trends come into play,” explained CIBC World Markets Chief Economist Avery Shenfeld, referring to five-year Canadian government debt.

Back in 2008 when the Canadian economy was teetering and Greater Vancouver real estate prices fell 14% the Bank of Canada swiftly hammered interest rates into the ground. The interest rate went from 4.5% in December 2007, to 1.75% in December 2008, to a ridiculous 0.50% in December 2009, which is where we still stand today. We sit at the lowest rates in Canadian history since they began recording in 1935.

... With the US federal reserve recently hiking their interest rates and 3 more hikes expected in 2017 the bond market is beginning to price for inflation, shooting bond yields through the roof. This has caused Canadian bond yields to surge in recent months, which are now at their highest levels since December 2014. Fixed term mortgage rates in Canada are climbing as a result. The 5 year fixed term mortgage rates have increased by 34 basis points over the past 2 months according to ratehub.ca. Prompting Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz to flag this as a serious financial risk in his latest policy statement on December 7.

... Regardless, it appears the Canadian economy is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Should the economy continue to teeter or real estate falter interest rates have almost nowhere to go. The Bank of Canada appears to be out of ammo. If real estate prices fall, lowering interest rates won’t save the market this time around..."

http://vancitycondoguide.com/rock-hard-place/
 
tdma800
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:51 pm

not some john smith with a godaddy account

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-est ... e33473392/
 
jimtan
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:06 pm

not some john smith with a godaddy account

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-est ... e33473392/
This is irrelevant. The globe and mail article is about the 2017 assessment. That's based on historical data from mid 2016. You really have no clue.  :roll:
 
tdma800
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:53 pm

That is related. The globeandmail article is about the assessment for last year. That's based on last years data. I really have a clue and you do not.
 
jimtan
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:16 am

That is related. The globeandmail article is about the assessment for last year. That's based on last years data. I really have a clue and you do not.
Educated people know that the past is not a predictor of the future.  :!:
 
tdma800
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:28 am

Plenty of people coming to Vancouver each year. to the moon!
 
reallyreal2
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:56 pm

2017 is picking up right where 2016 left off - lots of listings, no sales, lots of people trying to offload their "homes" that were purchased in the frenzy of 2016.  Many of them asking premium prices to what they paid - LOL.

Where is all the pent up demand that we are hearing about?  

On top of that, we have this:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-est ... e33485996/

If China succeeds, what will save Vancouver?  Our mountains - LOL?.... Our awesome incomes?.... Perhaps we can decrease mortgage rates to below zero? - LOL

So what will save Vancouver?  Some refugees?  LOL 
 
tdma800
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Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Thu Jan 05, 2017 3:57 pm

aside for unrelated chinese news


Vancouver is going to the moon!
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