This is a friendly, interactive exchange of information on all Real Estate related subjects. Follow on Twitter: @RETALKS


Moderator: admin

 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Metro Vancouver real estate market in free fall?

Fri Aug 19, 2016 4:30 pm

Oh dear, now Global News has picked up on what's happening! :shock:




ECONOMY
 
August 17, 2016 3:38 pm

DATA: Is the Metro Vancouver real estate market in free fall?

"East Vancouver’s Nina MacDonald echoes that belief telling Global News she hasn’t had any nibbles on her $1.28 million, 59-year-old bungalow on Napier Street that she’s owned for over 20 years. She’s even cancelled an upcoming open house because she felt like it would be pointless.

She initially wanted to sell because the real estate windfall would allow her to purchase a turnkey property and pay the down payment on houses for her grandchildren.
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65098)]“I went from having a phone call every day [from realtors] to not having any,” she said.[/color]
Global News obtained MLS sales data from several key Metro Vancouver markets and found the number of homes sold during the first two weeks of August in Greater Vancouver dropped by 85 per cent on average.
Richmond experienced a 96 per cent drop in the number of sales and Burnaby North fell by 95 per cent. Vancouver’s West Side, West Vancouver, and Coquitlam also took major hits."

http://globalnews.ca/news/2887766/data- ... free-fall/
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
User avatar
semven
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2596
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2008 7:25 pm
Location: If you Rent it you are still payin for it...
Contact:

Re: Metro Vancouver real estate market in free fall?

Fri Aug 19, 2016 6:37 pm

You have a case Geyser. You can't quantify it until mid October at the earliest though.
I do wonder though. How many affluent Asian people who can afford to buy in the British Properties would buy in Alberta?
This tax could wind up backfiring if the offshore buyers decide to go after lower priced properties...
 
VanLord
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 320
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:52 pm
Contact:

Re: Metro Vancouver real estate market in free fall?

Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:32 pm

The best part is that the Liberals shot themselves in the foot, and with a drastic decline in sales also means a drastic decline in Property Transfer Tax that helped prop up their balanced budget.  I guess timing wise it won't matter since the next election comes before the next budget.

Ah well if this goes from bad to worse, they can always raise the Carbon Tax....either way the happy sheeple will pay.
 
eyesthebye2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1207
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am
Contact:

Re: Metro Vancouver real estate market in free fall?

Sat Aug 20, 2016 7:02 am

You have a case Geyser. You can't quantify it until mid October at the earliest though.
I do wonder though. How many affluent Asian people who can afford to buy in the British Properties would buy in Alberta?
This tax could wind up backfiring if the offshore buyers decide to go after lower priced properties...
Buyers want what they want.
The 15% tax will mean a 15% lower sale price on the property. I don't imagine the buyer will compromise on their lication.
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: Metro Vancouver real estate market in free fall?

Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:01 am

You have a case Geyser.  You can't quantify it until mid October at the earliest though.
I do wonder though. How many affluent Asian people who can afford to buy in the British Properties would buy in Alberta?
This tax could wind up backfiring if the offshore buyers decide to go after lower priced properties...
I think it may be well beyond October before we know with any certainty that the bubble has burst. If it follows the typical pattern there should be a sharp drop (which already appears underway), followed by a modest but short-lived recovery, followed by a massive collapse. It could be next spring before the really big plunge.

The wealthy Asians are already flooding into other markets with much lower property (non-discriminatory) prices and much nicer climates. I suspect that the United States is now looking more attractive attractive than ever. 
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am
Contact:

Re: Metro Vancouver real estate market in free fall?

Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:28 am

Taxes in the US are very high.. More foreigners are coming to Vancouver
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: Metro Vancouver real estate market in free fall?

Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:35 am

Buyers want what they want.
The 15% tax will mean a 15% lower sale price on the property. I don't imagine the buyer will compromise on their lication.
Sorry but that is an overly simplistic analysis. 

Foreign buyers are now faced with a discriminatory tax which means they are no longer on a level playing field with locals. Even if the seller drops the price by 15%, foreign buyers are forced to pay 15% more than a local buyer, hence they need to see the property value increase by 15% just to break even, and that's without counting realtor's fees, the carrying costs and all the other transaction costs when buying and selling.

Also, given the way certain cultures are ultra-sensitive about "losing face", such a discriminatory tax might be considered as racist and highly insulting.  Remember all the multi-generational whining about the "Head Tax".  I expect the typical HAM reaction to this new tax will be "F*#^*  you!   I go somewhere where my money and my family are more welcome."

Our current tumbling prices and market uncertainty can only add to the tsunami of negativity which appears to have already started.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: Metro Vancouver real estate market in free fall?

Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:36 am

Taxes in the US are very high.. More foreigners are coming to Vancouver
Don't feed the troll.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am
Contact:

Re: Metro Vancouver real estate market in free fall?

Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:43 am

Taxes in the US are very high.. More foreigners are coming to Vancouver
Don't feed the troll.
takes 1 to know 1
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am
Contact:

Re: Metro Vancouver real estate market in free fall?

Sat Aug 20, 2016 11:46 am

You have a case Geyser.  You can't quantify it until mid October at the earliest though.
I do wonder though. How many affluent Asian people who can afford to buy in the British Properties would buy in Alberta?
This tax could wind up backfiring if the offshore buyers decide to go after lower priced properties...
Buyers want what they want.
The 15% tax will mean a 15% lower sale price on the property. I don't imagine the buyer will compromise on their lication.
have many of the same benefits of properties in Canada, such as open or short term(5 or less year) mortgages, tax free gains on an own home, and of course, for specific types of colored people ,both with and without the Canadian passport, the open welcome by the Federal and local governments.
 
VanLord
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 320
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:52 pm
Contact:

Re: Metro Vancouver real estate market in free fall?

Sun Aug 21, 2016 10:15 am

Buyers want what they want.
The 15% tax will mean a 15% lower sale price on the property. I don't imagine the buyer will compromise on their lication.
Sorry but that is an overly simplistic analysis. 

Foreign buyers are now faced with a discriminatory tax which means they are no longer on a level playing field with locals. Even if the seller drops the price by 15%, foreign buyers are forced to pay 15% more than a local buyer, hence they need to see the property value increase by 15% just to break even, and that's without counting realtor's fees, the carrying costs and all the other transaction costs when buying and selling.

Also, given the way certain cultures are ultra-sensitive about "losing face", such a discriminatory tax might be considered as racist and highly insulting.  Remember all the multi-generational whining about the "Head Tax".  I expect the typical HAM reaction to this new tax will be "F*#^*  you!   I go somewhere where my money and my family are more welcome."

Our current tumbling prices and market uncertainty can only add to the tsunami of negativity which appears to have already started.
Perhaps, but on the other hand the back door is still open for foreigners to get their landed immigrant status and avoid the tax and the feds are planning to open the flood gates.  I don't think you can really judge this until next spring, as you said in one of your posts.  Will we go over the cliff, or re-trench?  I suspect the provincial government is hoping for a dip, followed by a return to "normal" higher sales volumes after they get re-elected.  Its a big gamble but time will tell.  
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: Metro Vancouver real estate market in free fall?

Sun Aug 21, 2016 2:22 pm

Buyers want what they want.
The 15% tax will mean a 15% lower sale price on the property. I don't imagine the buyer will compromise on their lication.
Sorry but that is an overly simplistic analysis. 

Foreign buyers are now faced with a discriminatory tax which means they are no longer on a level playing field with locals. Even if the seller drops the price by 15%, foreign buyers are forced to pay 15% more than a local buyer, hence they need to see the property value increase by 15% just to break even, and that's without counting realtor's fees, the carrying costs and all the other transaction costs when buying and selling.

Also, given the way certain cultures are ultra-sensitive about "losing face", such a discriminatory tax might be considered as racist and highly insulting.  Remember all the multi-generational whining about the "Head Tax".  I expect the typical HAM reaction to this new tax will be "F*#^*  you!   I go somewhere where my money and my family are more welcome."

Our current tumbling prices and market uncertainty can only add to the tsunami of negativity which appears to have already started.
Perhaps, but on the other hand the back door is still open for foreigners to get their landed immigrant status and avoid the tax and the feds are planning to open the flood gates.  I don't think you can really judge this until next spring, as you said in one of your posts.  Will we go over the cliff, or re-trench?  I suspect the provincial government is hoping for a dip, followed by a return to "normal" higher sales volumes after they get re-elected.  Its a big gamble but time will tell.  
Yes, I agree that's one possible outcome, but the length and height of this bubble is so insane that a major correction seems far more probable to me. Time will tell.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests