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jimtan
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Empty homes study 10,000 vacant condos but still fails...

Wed Mar 09, 2016 10:11 pm

Here's the data. Looks like no sign of unusual vacancies. There are more vacancies in westside and downtown. But, pretty much in line with other cities. As I have said before, Asian/foreign buyers are a significant factor in westside but not numerically important element in metro.

"Empty homes study reveals 10,000 vacant condos but still fails to explain Vancouver real-estate prices"

http://www.straight.com/news/653356/emp ... eal-estate

Other factors are more important like low interest rates, flippers and 'wholesalers'. Things are pretty much normal with the cycle coming to an end because of rising interest rates and surging condo supply, and the flippers etc will evaporate as soon as the market turns around. In fact, expect the speculators to unload as soon as they lose their nerves.
 
Demonizer
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Re: Empty homes study 10,000 vacant condos but still fails..

Thu Mar 10, 2016 8:03 am

with regards to this vacant housing issues, what's the big problem, most houses are occupied except for a few in the grand scheme of things.

and more condos are locked up and vacant. so what? they are holiday homes basically a hotel room suite for many. this is all perfectly normal like any international destination. this is happening all over worldwide.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Empty homes study 10,000 vacant condos but still fails..

Thu Mar 10, 2016 8:29 am

10,000 empty condo?
Isn't that shadow inventory?
What happens when they come on the market at once?
That's partly why I would never buy one...huge and endless supply.
 
jimtan
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Re: Empty homes study 10,000 vacant condos but still fails..

Thu Mar 10, 2016 9:53 am

10,000 empty condo?
Isn't that shadow inventory?
What happens when they come on the market at once?
That's partly why I would never buy one...huge and endless supply.
Haha!

It's possible that the Chinese investors will unload their westside homes one day!! :mrgreen:

How far will prices fall until local buyers can afford SFH?
 
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thompson2
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Re: Empty homes study 10,000 vacant condos but still fails..

Thu Mar 10, 2016 2:00 pm

Does anyone realizes that Condo resale market is red hot now?

There is a 30% jump in many areas in just one or two months! Multiple offers and over asking are all over the condo market, no one cares governments assessment value anymore.

Ah, seems like every dog has its day, forget sfh, it's a show time for condos. :mrgreen:
 
Fabien
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Re: Empty homes study 10,000 vacant condos but still fails..

Thu Mar 10, 2016 2:19 pm

Relatively newer large (1000 sq ft plus) well located condos are extremely rare indeed and it appears are in demand. Probably because family large condos are not being built anymore and are still much cheaper than SFH. However there's been so many small condos built that signal caution. Looking at the 12% vacancy rate I continue to worry about oversupply and the amount of investors in the market. And the new developments show no sign of slowing. Particularly cheaper suburban market.
 
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Re: Empty homes study 10,000 vacant condos but still fails..

Thu Mar 10, 2016 4:04 pm

The low Canadian Currency is what is lighting things on fire
 
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jesse1
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Re: Empty homes study 10,000 vacant condos but still fails..

Thu Mar 10, 2016 6:29 pm

how far will prices fall until local buyers can afford SFH
Nothing. They are buying SFH in droves. Or do you mean "Vancouver West SFH"? :P
There is no shame in overpaying
 
jimtan
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Re: Empty homes study 10,000 vacant condos but still fails..

Thu Mar 10, 2016 7:01 pm

how far will prices fall until local buyers can afford SFH
Nothing. They are buying SFH in droves. Or do you mean "Vancouver West SFH"? :P
Yes Vancouver SFH. I am also referring to the people who paid a million in Burnaby for a lot in McDonalds car park. :P
 
Demonizer
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Re: Empty homes study 10,000 vacant condos but still fails..

Fri Mar 11, 2016 7:41 am

homes on my street lately have been on market for less than 3 days before sold over asking
 
jimtan
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Re: Empty homes study 10,000 vacant condos but still fails..

Fri Mar 11, 2016 8:08 am

homes on my street lately have been on market for less than 3 days before sold over asking
Memories are short. How quickly it turned in 2009? :|
 
yzfr1
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Re: Empty homes study 10,000 vacant condos but still fails..

Fri Mar 11, 2016 9:42 am

Here is the important part about condos vs SFH.

If prices goes up / down that doesn't change anything. A gain or loss is only realzied when the actually property is sold.

Even if the prices drop 50-80% condos / SFH as long as people have jobs and can continue to service those loans they will continue to do so. Most people have equity and are not like the US subprime where they borrowed 110% against value.

NOW if there is mass layoffs. That's when people can no longer pay. I would rather be In a SFH then condo. Why?

I live in a SFH east Vancouver. Most of the homes are a mix of older / newer builds. Most people in a established old area like that it's safe to say lots of owners out right own the home (if the market crashes they can afford to sit on the property and not flood the market to sell) Even if they do have a mortgage they has massive down payment. Try borrowing 1.1 million from the bank to buy a east van house. Most people have huge equity

What I can say for a condo development is 90% if not more buyers all started the mortgages at the same time. Maybe with the 20% equity mark. If anything goes wrong with the economy and there is a correction. Condos would be first the drop, easier to walk away from and more supply. There would be more people who could not sit on the condo then people who could sit. That would create the "fire sale" environment.

SFH is a better bet because it's more established.

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