Real Estate Talks

Lol all the way to the bank dude

I love it when people are right but their reasoning is flawed... they fool themselves into thinking they are smart. When they aren't.

I've always said I would rather be lucky than smart. Works for ETB

Yes Eyes you have made alot of money on your house.

But, you theory is wrong. At least I think so.

Ban foreign ownership & make all current foreign owners sell their place. I know this is unrealistic but if it did happen then watch how prices would tank. Immigration would not matter at that point unless they are rich immigrants. After all Syrian refugees will not be buying houses in Vancouver. Then you would only have local incomes buying local homes. Without foreign money high prices would go back to low prices based on local incomes.

Yes Eyes you have made alot of money on your house.

But, you theory is wrong. At least I think so.

Ban foreign ownership & make all current foreign owners sell their place. I know this is unrealistic but if it did happen then watch how prices would tank. Immigration would not matter at that point unless they are rich immigrants. After all Syrian refugees will not be buying houses in Vancouver. Then you would only have local incomes buying local homes. Without foreign money high prices would go back to low prices based on local incomes.

Eyes has not made a lot of money on his house, he is sitting on a lot of "potential" profit which he has chosen not to realize. It may increase or it may evaporate, nothing in life is certain.

We should not ignore the dramatic collapse of property prices in Tokyo where homes lost 90% of their value and prime commercial real estate lost 99% of its value after a bull market similar to ours. Those numbers are not typos!

From Wikipedia:

The Japanese asset price bubble (バブル景気 baburu keiki?, lit. "bubble economy") was an economic bubble in Japan from 1986 to 1991 in which real estate and stock market prices were greatly inflated.[1] The bubble was characterized by rapid acceleration of asset prices and overheated economic activity, as well as an uncontrolled money supply and credit expansion.[2] More specifically, over-confidence and speculation regarding asset and stock prices had been closely associated with excessive monetary easing policy at the time.[3]

Does that sound slightly familiar???

By August 1990, the Nikkei stock index had plummeted to half its peak by the time of the fifth monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).[2] By late 1991, asset prices began to fall. Even though asset prices had visibly collapsed by early 1992,[2] the economy's decline continued for more than a decade. This decline resulted in a huge accumulation of non-performing assets loans (NPL), causing difficulties for many financial institutions. The bursting of the Japanese asset price bubble contributed to what many call the Lost Decade.[4]

But don't worry, just like the Japanese used to say, "it's different here".

Banning foreign ownership would be very anit-Canadian. We are a country built on immigration and inclusion.

Why not ban foreign ownership on any property over 2million?
A family immigrating can find a decent home at something under this amount.
I'd say you can remove this restriction when the foreign owner starts paying income tax here.

Prices have gone so far out of whack, what type of correction is required to bring them back to "normal"? 50%? 60%? More?

According to Geyser's "long term historical average", you need a 25% correction first, then 50% correction fllows, then another 50% correction again, all three corrections together will bring the market back to "normal".

Ah, that's only a release of 40 years pressure built up.

Why not ban foreign ownership on any property over 2million?

Yes, why not?! Let those greedy sellers dry to death!
Just read a news that a shit hole in west van sold for 2.5m, unbelievable,we should do something...to protect those stupid foreigners for our own reputation.

Banning foreign ownership would be very anit-Canadian. We are a country built on immigration and inclusion.

Why not ban foreign ownership on any property over 2million?

Immigrant buyers are different than non-resident buyers! I like your 2 million idea though. Or maybe they can only buy properties in West Van & Richmond. That's it ... nowhere else.

What is anti Canadian is having Canadian citizens unable to buy homes in their own country. Our home buying rules favour foreigners over Canadians. In the USA the laws favour local citizens. Property taxes are higher for foreigners & the IRS can confiscate your house if it was bought the proceeds of crime (money laundering). In Canada, we have very low property taxes & CRA doesn't care about money laundering on non-residents not reporting capital gains. No wonder all the foreigners want to buy here. This is anti- Canadian to me. But nobody cares as long as their home is going up in value.

Immigrant buyers are different than non-resident buyers! I like your 2 million idea though. Or maybe they can only buy properties in West Van & Richmond. That's it ... nowhere else.

very smart idea, whattodo, but very soon or late you will change your name back to " what to do"?

"Eh? why their house prices can go higher and higher, and oures just go with inflation? Rich get richer, that's real anti-Canadians!" -A group of angry home owners associations in East Van, North Van, Burnaby, Coquitlam, Port Moody, Port Coquitlam, Maple Ridge,...

What is anti Canadian is having Canadian citizens unable to buy homes in their own country. Our home buying rules favour foreigners over Canadians. In the USA the laws favour local citizens. Property taxes are higher for foreigners & the IRS can confiscate your house if it was bought the proceeds of crime (money laundering). In Canada, we have very low property taxes & CRA doesn't care about money laundering on non-residents not reporting capital gains. No wonder all the foreigners want to buy here. This is anti- Canadian to me. But nobody cares as long as their home is going up in value.

that is totally bs.

I am sure your money can go long way in Windsor which is a part of Canada; you can also buy a two bedroom condo in Lougheed Mall Burnaby at 250k which is the same price as that of 10 years ago, .... right I know what's your mean, you want a sfh just in a specific area, that's a problem especially when you don't have enough money in your pocket. I, as a Canadian, also have that same feeling when I face a car that I dreamed in parking lot, but I never call it as "anti-Canadian".

Prices have gone so far out of whack, what type of correction is required to bring them back to "normal"? 50%? 60%? More?

According to Geyser's "long term historical average", you need a 25% correction first, then 50% correction fllows, then another 50% correction again, all three corrections together will bring the market back to "normal".

Ah, that's only a release of 40 years pressure built up.

I think that realistically a rollback to 2002 prices is probably our worst case scenario.

BTW, it wasn't my "long term historical average", it's what actually happened. But like I said, we don't need to worry because of two important facts - "it's different this time" and/or "Vancouver is different", just like it was different in Tokyo during their real estate bubble and before their home prices collapsed by 90%. Yes, 90%! That's not a typo, if you don't believe me Google it.

Unfortunately the only way out of this mess involves a lot of pain for a significant portion of our population. Let's pray for a moderate correction, a price drop of no more than 50%, followed a decade or two of flat prices while wages and rents catch up. We've lived through that before and most of us can survive it again.

I think that realistically a rollback to 2002 prices is probably our worst case scenario

This is the funniest and stupidest statement I've heard here for a while.
My house was 300k in 2002.
What about the 700k population we gained since 2002? Are those people going to disappear?
As I've said, discount of perhaps 15% before buyers get antsy and step in...developers have a wholesale #...and it isn't 600% off.
Yer a farking idiot geyser

Prices have gone so far out of whack, what type of correction is required to bring them back to "normal"? 50%? 60%? More?

According to Geyser's "long term historical average", you need a 25% correction first, then 50% correction fllows, then another 50% correction again, all three corrections together will bring the market back to "normal".

Ah, that's only a release of 40 years pressure built up.

I think that realistically a rollback to 2002 prices is probably our worst case scenario.

BTW, it wasn't my "long term historical average", it's what actually happened. But like I said, we don't need to worry because of two important facts - "it's different this time" and/or "Vancouver is different", just like it was different in Tokyo during their real estate bubble and before their home prices collapsed by 90%. Yes, 90%! That's not a typo, if you don't believe me Google it.

Unfortunately the only way out of this mess involves a lot of pain for a significant portion of our population. Let's pray for a moderate correction, a price drop of no more than 50%, followed a decade or two of flat prices while wages and rents catch up. We've lived through that before and most of us can survive it again.

Economic comparisons to Japan is the new Godwin's Law.

I think that realistically a rollback to 2002 prices is probably our worst case scenario

This is the funniest and stupidest statement I've heard here for a while.
My house was 300k in 2002.
What about the 700k population we gained since 2002? Are those people going to disappear?
As I've said, discount of perhaps 15% before buyers get antsy and step in...developers have a wholesale #...and it isn't 600% off.
Yer a farking idiot geyser

So you think Tokyo's population shrank by 90% during their 90% home price collapse? And how come the antsy buyers didn't step in then? Do you think Vancouver's population was shrinking by between 40% and 50% when our home prices fell by those percentages in 1982? No antsy buyers rushing in at 15% discount then either. Human nature often makes people stand on the sidelines when prices are collapsing. It's all about two emotions, fear and greed. Currently I believe we are mostly witnessing rampant speculation and extreme greed, and its effects are quite impressive, but fear can be even more powerful.

Do you really believe that population and home prices always move in lockstep? If so, you must assume that the population of the USA was constantly shrinking between the years of 1890 and 1940 because the real (inflation adjusted) price of homes fell during that entire time. How do you explain all the various corrections which have routinely occurred in cities around the world? Were their populations always shrinking too?

Who sounds like the idiot now?

The key factor is not how many people arrive or leave, those are secondary influences, the biggest consideration by far is how much people are willing to pay. If you don't understand that you should ask yourself if you think our population increase has matched our insane home price increases over the last decade or so. Come on, you don't really believe that, or do you?

BTW, my suggested "worst case scenario" of a roll-back to 2002 prices was a lot less gloomy than the actual events which took the red hot Tokyo market by complete surprise. Personally I'd be surprised if they go below 2005 levels, but I learned a long time ago, never say never.

But don't worry, what happened in Tokyo can't happen here because "it's different here", and what happened here in 1982 can't ever happen here again because "it's different this time".

lol at the japan being the same as vancouver thing

lol at the japan being the same as vancouver thing

I cant continue to dignify Geyser with replies...his views are inane and reeks of envy.

I hear it's not just Chinese buying now...lots of Russian too. Maybe thats why prices are surging even more dramatically, super rich vs super wealthy