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futureporscheowner4
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Predictions for 2016

Mon Dec 28, 2015 2:31 pm

Hi All,

I hope all is well with everyone, I had a pretty interesting year, somewhat homesick, and hoping to come back to Vancouver soon.

Here are my predictions for 2016..
-The SFD housing market becomes even more insane, see increases of 20%,25% in some areas
-Gold at 1800 CDN
-More continuing weakness in Calgary
-Hillary gets elected for the Democratss
-Rubio gets elected for the Republicans
-Liberals will do well with the economy as it will be firing on all cylinders
-Expect more americans/chinese investors


Lastly, would suggest everyone to teach their kids, Mandarin.. Regardless of race, ect (I am East Indian), but really think it will give your child a step above the rest.

-My favourite areas that I would suggest to invest
As always anything on Fraser Highway/152nd - LRT stops , 156th in Surrey and anything you find where the LRT station is going to be on.
-East Vancouver- near Joyce Skytrain station, expect the area to get rezoned
-Other areas, I would say that will continue to shine is Ladner, I expect more white flight out that way..

As always, here's wishing everyone and their family, a joyous 2015, filled with prosperity, health and love.

God Bless,

FPO.
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:29 pm

Hi FPO, we can always depend on you to start up this great thread. Sorry to hear that you are have been out of town for some time. :)

I have only a few guesses:
the US Fed Rate will go back down in the Spring.
Real estate sales will be brisk for the first quarter of 2016.

The economy will get worse around the world including here.
Oil price will be remain really low.
Loonie will be 65 cents.

Edited to add: " Here's wishing you all a very Happy New Year!" :D
Last edited by WhipMaster on Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
rMBA13
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:37 pm

Surrey and the rest of the Fraser Valley will be down 5%

Lower Mainland will be up 10-15%
 
jimtan
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Mon Dec 28, 2015 8:27 pm

History will repeat itself.
 
tdma800
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Tue Dec 29, 2015 8:22 am

to the moon ladies and gentlemen!!!
 
vanreal
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Wed Dec 30, 2015 6:33 am

The gap in price between east side and west side will continue to close.
 
Geyser
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Wed Dec 30, 2015 8:37 pm

The gap in price between east side and west side will continue to close.
Is it already closing? I agree that when the market falls the gap will probably close but I wasn't aware the price drops were already starting in those two areas.

Here's an interesting prediction from The Province newspaper about 18 months ago, and no, I don't think it will prove accurate but it does demonstrate the reality and the expectations of the West side continuing to outperform the Eastside. It makes sense to me because very few wealthy people will ever want to live on the Eastside and they are less sensitive to prices and the need to qualify for mortgages. Already the strain is showing on the Eastside, as demonstrated by the extraordinary number of "mortgage helper" suites.
If Vancouver real estate prices continue on the parabolic rise of the past 10 years, an average older house on the west side will be worth $7 million by 2024, according to an appraisal firm.

In a new study, Altus Group looks at the price trends of the past 10 years in Vancouver and calculates the stratospheric gains that could materialize if history repeats.

In 2004, the average west side older detached house sold for $835,101, and this March the average price was $2.48 million.

In comparison a similar home on the east side sold for $416,674 10 years ago, and the current average price is $942,555.

“If trend continues, in the year 2024 the average price for older stock could be greater than $2 million on the Eastside and $7 million on the Westside of Vancouver,” author Pedro Tavares writes.
It's going to be an interesting few years ahead, I'm not dumb enough to make any hard forecasts but I really can't imagine the incredible price increases of the last decade repeating for the next decade. Too many strong reasons for them not to.

Happy New Year to all. :D
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Wed Dec 30, 2015 8:38 pm

The gap in price between east side and west side will continue to close.
And of course yearly increases because people have to live somewhere
 
Geyser
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Wed Dec 30, 2015 8:41 pm

The gap in price between east side and west side will continue to close.
And of course yearly increases because people have to live somewhere
Based on that logic, all real estate prices should always see annual increases everywhere in the world, especially in the more populous nations.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Wed Dec 30, 2015 8:42 pm

It's considered difficult for some citizens to know things in Canada are different
 
Geyser
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Wed Dec 30, 2015 8:55 pm

It's considered difficult for some citizens to know things in Canada are different
Were they different in 1982? Yes they were, and they can be different in the future.

You probably don't remember what happened to real estate in 1982 but I do. Home prices in Vancouver tumbled between 40% and % 50% in a matter of a few months. It was the real estate Apocalypse! Fortunately I had just one property at the time, a SFH with what I thought was a huge mortgage fixed for 5 years. I had a few sleepless night during the period when the mortgage renewal rates went from around 12% to over 20%. If I hadn't been locked in it would have wiped me out.

Yeah, I know, that can't ever happen again. Okay, but remember the old saying, "history might not repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme", so place your bets and take your chances. :D
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Wed Dec 30, 2015 9:03 pm

Most people live now not before
 
vanreal
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Wed Dec 30, 2015 9:29 pm

The gap in price between east side and west side will continue to close.
Is it already closing? I agree that when the market falls the gap will probably close but I wasn't aware the price drops were already starting in those two areas.

Here's an interesting prediction from The Province newspaper about 18 months ago, and no, I don't think it will prove accurate but it does demonstrate the reality and the expectations of the West side continuing to outperform the Eastside. It makes sense to me because very few wealthy people will ever want to live on the Eastside and they are less sensitive to prices and the need to qualify for mortgages. Already the strain is showing on the Eastside, as demonstrated by the extraordinary number of "mortgage helper" suites.
If Vancouver real estate prices continue on the parabolic rise of the past 10 years, an average older house on the west side will be worth $7 million by 2024, according to an appraisal firm.

In a new study, Altus Group looks at the price trends of the past 10 years in Vancouver and calculates the stratospheric gains that could materialize if history repeats.

In 2004, the average west side older detached house sold for $835,101, and this March the average price was $2.48 million.

In comparison a similar home on the east side sold for $416,674 10 years ago, and the current average price is $942,555.

“If trend continues, in the year 2024 the average price for older stock could be greater than $2 million on the Eastside and $7 million on the Westside of Vancouver,” author Pedro Tavares writes.
It's going to be an interesting few years ahead, I'm not dumb enough to make any hard forecasts but I really can't imagine the incredible price increases of the last decade repeating for the next decade. Too many strong reasons for them not to.

Happy New Year to all. :D
You don't think the west side has mortgage helper suites. What planet do you live on Geyser. Lol
 
VanBullBear
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:45 am

RE will continue to climb up for q1 and q2 but at a slower rate than 2015.
Depending on what BoC does to rates on q3 RE could jolt up even more if they lower rates which it looks like they will.
2016 is looking to be another good year for RE.

Oil will be above 40 after q1 but stay below 50 throughout the year.
 
Geyser
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Re: Predictions for 2016

Thu Dec 31, 2015 7:24 pm

The gap in price between east side and west side will continue to close.
Is it already closing? I agree that when the market falls the gap will probably close but I wasn't aware the price drops were already starting in those two areas.

Here's an interesting prediction from The Province newspaper about 18 months ago, and no, I don't think it will prove accurate but it does demonstrate the reality and the expectations of the West side continuing to outperform the Eastside. It makes sense to me because very few wealthy people will ever want to live on the Eastside and they are less sensitive to prices and the need to qualify for mortgages. Already the strain is showing on the Eastside, as demonstrated by the extraordinary number of "mortgage helper" suites.
If Vancouver real estate prices continue on the parabolic rise of the past 10 years, an average older house on the west side will be worth $7 million by 2024, according to an appraisal firm.

In a new study, Altus Group looks at the price trends of the past 10 years in Vancouver and calculates the stratospheric gains that could materialize if history repeats.

In 2004, the average west side older detached house sold for $835,101, and this March the average price was $2.48 million.

In comparison a similar home on the east side sold for $416,674 10 years ago, and the current average price is $942,555.

“If trend continues, in the year 2024 the average price for older stock could be greater than $2 million on the Eastside and $7 million on the Westside of Vancouver,” author Pedro Tavares writes.
It's going to be an interesting few years ahead, I'm not dumb enough to make any hard forecasts but I really can't imagine the incredible price increases of the last decade repeating for the next decade. Too many strong reasons for them not to.

Happy New Year to all. :D
You don't think the west side has mortgage helper suites. What planet do you live on Geyser. Lol
We're did I suggest that there are no mortgage helper suites on the Westside? I didn't, there are plenty of such suites throughout the city. but my comment was about "the extraordinary number" on the Eastside. Check Craig's list and see for yourself.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.

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