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eyesthebye2
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Mon Aug 10, 2015 8:30 am

Geyser sure does choose his words carefully. Just admit it, you've turned into a well-written variant of Taipan! Fear mongering and charting and always carefully followed up with not knowing when it will happen. Is it the ability to back track 5 years down the road and not admit being wrong?? At some point prices will go down. But in some point in the future they will also go up. Ebbs and Flows in real estate... shocking!

For us watching at home, pick a side and admit you are off the fence. Its more entertaining :P

vw
Geyser is not Geiser. Not the same person. Geyser is probably vanpro (my best guess) but he could be a number of other perma-bears that abandoned their old ID out of shame.
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Mon Aug 10, 2015 9:49 am

Geyser is Vanpro???.... That is an insult. :shock:
I think Geyser is Geezer. :lol:
...not fawkin' Vanpro. :shock:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Mon Aug 10, 2015 2:01 pm

"Geyser"

The notion that a scruffy old house in a rough part of the outskirts of the city should command a price in the order of 11 or 12 times the average local income appears beyond unsustainable.
here's your mistake #1
It's not the house fella, it's the land. That's exactly why you live in a condo - don't appreciate or understand the land shortage in Vancouver
You took the words right of my mouth. A few weeks ago I saw that Vancouver has less than 50,000 single family homes. People not in Vancouver or Toronto mostly do not realize that building outside of a limited area is restricted in both Vancouver and Toronto. Things are different here. Especially in Vancouver, many homes, older ones in particular hold a lot of value. Vancouver has the lowest property taxes in the nation.
Structures depreciate. Old structures have more depreciation than newer ones. Significant and costly renovations may temporarily reverse the depreciation but the fact remains, structures depreciate. Do you really believe that a well built and well finished brand new house on ETBs lot would be worth more than his tear down?

Even ETB realizes his current big increase in equity is all about the land, not the shack that sits on it. :roll:

Also, you continue to claim that Vancouver has the lowest property taxes (wrong!) instead of making the more accurate claim that, because of our high property values, we have a lower tax ratio of tax to value.

Why don't you do a bit of research and let us know what the tax would be on an 80 year old tear down in a scruffy part of Edmonton or Regina and compare it to a similar tear down on the same size lot in the outer reaches of East Vancouver?

Just to give you a baseline to start from, back in 2008 when ETB bought his place his property taxes were $3,195. Obviously his taxes are higher today, so how much more expensive would today's taxes be on those similar properties in Edmonton or Regina?
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Mon Aug 10, 2015 2:23 pm

Geyser sure does choose his words carefully. Just admit it, you've turned into a well-written variant of Taipan! Fear mongering and charting and always carefully followed up with not knowing when it will happen. Is it the ability to back track 5 years down the road and not admit being wrong?? At some point prices will go down. But in some point in the future they will also go up. Ebbs and Flows in real estate... shocking!

For us watching at home, pick a side and admit you are off the fence. Its more entertaining :P

vw
Geyser is not Geiser. Not the same person. Geyser is probably vanpro (my best guess) but he could be a number of other perma-bears that abandoned their old ID out of shame.
Not sure about the spelling but basically Vancouver has the lowest property taxes in the nation
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Mon Aug 10, 2015 2:25 pm

Ha! The old sniper is back. :D

VWrider wrote:
At some point prices will go down. But in some point in the future they will also go up. Ebbs and Flows in real estate... shocking!
Well done, you've finally learned something from my numerous old posts where I stated exactly the same sentiment. You may recall that I also said timing the market for tops and bottoms is a mug's game, but you still expect me to give you a date for the correction which most of us know is coming.

The one thing you seem to overlook is the way the odds shift from bullish to bearish and back. Years ago I was accused of being an uber bull, a market pumper and a realestate industry stooge. Now that the odds have shifted deeper into bearish territory I'm accused of being a Taipan clone who is spreading fear. Like I've said before, as the circumstances change, so do my expectations. How about you?

What a strangely black and white world you live in. You think I should sit on the fence instead of watching my investments and rebalancing from time to time. I hesitate to criticize the time proven "buy and hold" strategy but at my advanced age it makes sense to take a large chunk of my gains off the table and that is what I have done, although I still have skin in the game just in case I last longer than I expect. I also anticipate keeping my primary residence because I like it and I do not view it as an investment.

So you tell me, by holding on to multiple properties (including residentially zoned raw land, but dumping a good portion of my condominium interests, does that make me a bull or a bear? I suggest that it makes me a cautious long-term investor who understands that the real estate market can move very quickly, up or down, but usually has a long-term upward bias.

Satisfied?
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Mon Aug 10, 2015 2:29 pm

Geyser is Vanpro???.... That is an insult. :shock:
I think Geyser is Geezer. :lol:
...not fawkin' Vanpro. :shock:
Thank you old friend. I believe our occasional PMs over the years have probably been enough to confirm to you that I am both Geezer & Geyser. A fact which I explained at the time of my name change but a fact which some lesser lights cannot seem to handle. :roll:

Fortunately, it's of little consequence. :mrgreen:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Mon Aug 10, 2015 7:21 pm

maybe Geyser is taipan :shock:
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Mon Aug 10, 2015 10:54 pm

maybe Geyser is taipan :shock:
...now that was another insult just as big as the first one.
Gawd..... :shock:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
vwrider
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Tue Aug 11, 2015 7:49 am


Satisfied?
I think you've carefully worded your position here that if the market tanks, you're right. If the market goes up, you weren't wrong either. That's all. In terms of managing your personal financial portfolio, I believe you are smarter than the average person.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Tue Aug 11, 2015 8:05 am

"Geyser"

Just to give you a baseline to start from, back in 2008 when ETB bought his place his property taxes were $3,195. Obviously his taxes are higher today, so how much more expensive would today's taxes be on those similar properties in Edmonton or Regina?
my property in Edmonton would have taxes of $11,000
We pay 1/3 of this
Even ETB realizes his current big increase in equity is all about the land, not the shack that sits on it.
funny fact about my "shack"
My neighbour put over 100K into his place and my house is still worth more money. I have an extra 1/2 storey over his bungalow, plus the character
that comes with a 1930s home. Of course you don't appreciate this Geyser...you live in an glass tower with zero character
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:09 am


Satisfied?
I think you've carefully worded your position here that if the market tanks, you're right. If the market goes up, you weren't wrong either. That's all. In terms of managing your personal financial portfolio, I believe you are smarter than the average person.
You are probably right, that's how I try to plan investments these days.

I am a market observer who has noticed over many decades that nobody I know has called the timing of the tops and bottoms with any accuracy or consistency and I happily admit that I can't either. I also noticed that the market always, always, moves in cycles and therefore a big correction is inevitable at some point, I don't know when it will hit but I do believe the odds shifted in favour of a correction a few years ago, since which time it has continued to defy logic and prices have gone to record new highs which, in my mind, invites a bigger crash. Bubbles often last longer than logic might dictate, often much longer.

History shows that by shifting from the bull camp to the bear camp a several years back I was premature and maybe I still am, but that's okay. My aim when I partially cashed out of the condo market was to lock in some very tempting profits. Mission accomplished.

If the market goes a lot higher before the correction I will have no complaints because, at this point in my life, conservation of assets trumps taking risks chasing more big gains. When I see big profits on the table I tend to take a big chunk of them off the table whilst still leaving some "play money" in the game. As you so astutely noted, this means that whichever way the market goes I will be right or at least I won't be wrong. :lol:

Is that bad or is that just a cautious approach to a volatile market?

When I was in my twenties I was a lot more comfortable with risk, sometimes I won and sometimes I lost and that was okay but I'm too old to risk big losses now because I lack the decades needed to recover. The point of my posts is not to try and call the top or bottom but to generally indicate my impressions of the current state of the market and whether the odds favour higher prices or a correction. That's why my veiwpoint slowly shifted to bearish as the bull-run aged and other conditions changed.

It does strike me as odd when other people see big changes in market drivers but cling to their old fixed opinions about market direction. It seems like guiding one's car down the highway by looking at the very clear image in the rear view mirror, I prefere to look forward through the windshield, even if the view is very foggy. I also know that if there were a few sharp and unexpected u-turns on the highway behind us, there might be another one at some point further down the road.

No drama, no fear mongering, just casual observations and cautionary notes that the world isn't always unicorns and rainbows :D
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:33 am

"Geyser"

Just to give you a baseline to start from, back in 2008 when ETB bought his place his property taxes were $3,195. Obviously his taxes are higher today, so how much more expensive would today's taxes be on those similar properties in Edmonton or Regina?
my property in Edmonton would have taxes of $11,000
We pay 1/3 of this
Even ETB realizes his current big increase in equity is all about the land, not the shack that sits on it.
funny fact about my "shack"
My neighbour put over 100K into his place and my house is still worth more money. I have an extra 1/2 storey over his bungalow, plus the character
that comes with a 1930s home. Of course you don't appreciate this Geyser...you live in an glass tower with zero character
Commercial property owners in Vancouver complain all the time that their taxes are so high, because residential properties in Vancouver pay the lowest taxes in Canada.
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:42 am


my property in Edmonton would have taxes of $11,000
We pay 1/3 of this.
Trust me, run down, 80 year old, 2100 sq. ft. houses in the rougher parts of Edmonton do not pay $11,000 in taxes.

ETB
funny fact about my "shack"
My neighbour put over 100K into his place and my house is still worth more money. I have an extra 1/2 storey over his bungalow, plus the character
that comes with a 1930s home.
I can see that an investor might prefer a tear-down which has extra floors because it can make a better house for renting out as SROs while holding the land.

BTW, when you talk about "character" you seem to have forgotten that I have seen your house. Some folks thought that Quasimodo had "character" too, but I'm not sure I'd want to live with him. :lol:

Your old shack is an architectural eyesore with various ill-considered extensions tacked onto a bland box. It has all the appeal, personality and character of a 1920s Alaskan drug recovery house.

If you want to see character homes go to Kitsilano or Mole Hill.

ETB
Of course you don't appreciate this Geyser...you live in an glass tower with zero character
I assume you didn't read my previous critiques of characterless glass-wall towers. I do live in a tower but what makes you assume it's all glass and characterless? Are you still locked into your narrow vision of condo's being grubby, 3 story, multi-family stucco shacks or tiny glass-walled shoe-boxes? You really should visit Downtown sometime, it would amaze you if you open your eyes.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:15 am

I work downtown. I know what they are bud.
I'm in these condos every day Mon-Friday for the last 10 years.
They look like my wife's shoe collection sitting in boxes in our closet...rows and rows of them
stacked one on top of another
 
HomelessinSD
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Tue Aug 11, 2015 11:43 am

funny fact about my "shack"
My neighbour put over 100K into his place and my house is still worth more money. I have an extra 1/2 storey over his bungalow, plus the character
that comes with a 1930s home.
Lot size is the same: 44' x 122' and it looks like the bungalow was listed for $888k back in the summer of 2012. The old listing says the house was built in 1957. Looked pretty rough, so I could see why the new owners would put $100k into it to make it livable.

If these properties are worth $1.5 million now, I would think buyers would be tearing them down at that price, so I don't think yours would fetch much more.

How much have you put into your house? Looks like you've painted the exterior and put a new roof on.

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