I think you've carefully worded your position here that if the market tanks, you're right. If the market goes up, you weren't wrong either. That's all. In terms of managing your personal financial portfolio, I believe you are smarter than the average person.
You are probably right, that's how I try to plan investments these days.
I am a market observer who has noticed over many decades that nobody I know has called the timing of the tops and bottoms with any accuracy or consistency and I happily admit that I can't either. I also noticed that the market always, always, moves in cycles and therefore a big correction is inevitable at some point, I don't know when it will hit but I do believe the odds shifted in favour of a correction a few years ago, since which time it has continued to defy logic and prices have gone to record new highs which, in my mind, invites a bigger crash. Bubbles often last longer than logic might dictate, often much longer.
History shows that by shifting from the bull camp to the bear camp a several years back I was premature and maybe I still am, but that's okay. My aim when I partially cashed out of the condo market was to lock in some very tempting profits. Mission accomplished.
If the market goes a lot higher before the correction I will have no complaints because, at this point in my life, conservation of assets trumps taking risks chasing more big gains. When I see big profits on the table I tend to take a big chunk of them off the table whilst still leaving some "play money" in the game. As you so astutely noted, this means that whichever way the market goes I will be right or at least I won't be wrong.
Is that bad or is that just a cautious approach to a volatile market?
When I was in my twenties I was a lot more comfortable with risk, sometimes I won and sometimes I lost and that was okay but I'm too old to risk big losses now because I lack the decades needed to recover. The point of my posts is not to try and call the top or bottom but to generally indicate my impressions of the current state of the market and whether the odds favour higher prices or a correction. That's why my veiwpoint slowly shifted to bearish as the bull-run aged and other conditions changed.
It does strike me as odd when other people see big changes in market drivers but cling to their old fixed opinions about market direction. It seems like guiding one's car down the highway by looking at the very clear image in the rear view mirror, I prefere to look forward through the windshield, even if the view is very foggy. I also know that if there were a few sharp and unexpected u-turns on the highway behind us, there might be another one at some point further down the road.
No drama, no fear mongering, just casual observations and cautionary notes that the world isn't always unicorns and rainbows
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.