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Contrary to your apparent belief, last months MLS numbers do not represent a comprehensive review of long term property prices.oops! looks ok
https://www.biv.com/article/2015/8/metr ... july-rebg/
The Case Shiller index tracks the US market but historically we have moved loosely in track with that market. Schiller was dead on with his forecast of the US market collapse and has been saying similar things about Canada in recent times, along with the IMF, the Bank of Canada and a whole slew of other banks, economists and financial analysts.Excuse me but hasn't the Case-Shiller index thing been forcasting "rainy" weather for more than over the last decade?
Their model wasn't good enough to predict this amazing boom. So how can they be given the proper credit to predict a crash?
he/she admitted the index is foreign lol. Its not related to Canada. Things are different here.Excuse me but hasn't the Case-Shiller index thing been forcasting "rainy" weather for more than over the last decade?
Their model wasn't good enough to predict this amazing boom. So how can they be given the proper credit to predict a crash?
That's true. And things were different here in 1911 when the average Vancouver house price was $887K. Of course a crash like that can't happen again (even though it has) because it's different here (this time).he/she admitted the index is foreign lol. Its not related to Canada. Things are different here.Excuse me but hasn't the Case-Shiller index thing been forcasting "rainy" weather for more than over the last decade?
Their model wasn't good enough to predict this amazing boom. So how can they be given the proper credit to predict a crash?
Vancouver 1911 bubble
Average SFH price was $887,000
By 1893, a lot in the same area sold for $1,100, and, by 1900, an adjoining lot went for roughly $4,250. Incredibly, by 1912, – at a time when wages were roughly 50 cents an hour, and a tailored suit cost less than $40 – a lot in the very same area was worth $725,000.
However, the prewar boom was not to last. Between 1913 and 1915, following the U.S. stock market collapse, and resultant worldwide depression, Vancouver’s real estate bubble burst for the first (and possibly only) time; suddenly, commercial rents declined by 50%, and ordinary working people, no longer able to meet their obligations, defaulted on their loans. The city of South Vancouver went into receivership. The market was decimated. In fact, there is one recorded instance of a corner lot on Cambie and Broadway being listed for $90,000, and eventually selling for less than $8,000.
- See more at: http://thedependent.ca/featured/land-de ... iw39F.dpuf
Exactly, Whip.Excuse me but hasn't the Case-Shiller index thing been forcasting "rainy" weather for more than over the last decade?
Their model wasn't good enough to predict this amazing boom. So how can they be given the proper credit to predict a crash?
How about the approximately 50% plunge in Vancouver home prices in 1982? Or do you refuse to consider things from the 1980s too?I don't make references to things over 100 years ago
So there we have it. If the 1911 local house price of $887K was reasonable, then we have nothing to worry about.Exactly, Whip.Excuse me but hasn't the Case-Shiller index thing been forcasting "rainy" weather for more than over the last decade?
Their model wasn't good enough to predict this amazing boom. So how can they be given the proper credit to predict a crash?
If Case-Shiller's theory and Geyser's words (average Vancouver house price was $887,000 in 1911) are correct, my math leads me to believe that Vancouver isn't in bubble at all...far from that, actually Vancouver is deeply in shit, totally undervalued. Think about ..., $887,000 in 1911 equals to $27 m today after inflation. According to Case-Shiller, real estate in this world has to follow inflation, our average house price today ($1.4 m ) is nothing comparing to what we should be ($27m)! A gap of $25.6m need us to fill!, oh my!
Geyser, take off your bear's hat please, I think you are a biggest bull in history.
Not so long ago that I wasn't soiling my pants worrying about renewing my mortgage at double the rates.That's a long time ago
So there we have it. If the 1911 local house price of $887K was reasonable, then we have nothing to worry about.Exactly, Whip.Excuse me but hasn't the Case-Shiller index thing been forcasting "rainy" weather for more than over the last decade?
Their model wasn't good enough to predict this amazing boom. So how can they be given the proper credit to predict a crash?
If Case-Shiller's theory and Geyser's words (average Vancouver house price was $887,000 in 1911) are correct, my math leads me to believe that Vancouver isn't in bubble at all...far from that, actually Vancouver is deeply in shit, totally undervalued. Think about ..., $887,000 in 1911 equals to $27 m today after inflation. According to Case-Shiller, real estate in this world has to follow inflation, our average house price today ($1.4 m ) is nothing comparing to what we should be ($27m)! A gap of $25.6m need us to fill!, oh my!
Geyser, take off your bear's hat please, I think you are a biggest bull in history.
Yes, I can agree with that. It's only the "if" that I worry about. What if $887K in 1911 was overpriced?
You still beat me as a bull, Geyser. 
