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Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 1:17 pm

Contrary to your apparent belief, last months MLS numbers do not represent a comprehensive review of long term property prices.

You will get a much better idea from this:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/04/ca ... 11-update/

If that chart doesn't bother you, then there is little left for us to discuss, keep your eyes closed and keep jogging towards rather cliff. I wish you a happy landing. :D
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 1:19 pm

That's a foreign chart not about Vancouver unlike the MLS data which show the prices
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 1:23 pm

Excuse me but hasn't the Case-Shiller index thing been forcasting "rainy" weather for more than over the last decade? :lol:
Their model wasn't good enough to predict this amazing boom. So how can they be given the proper credit to predict a crash? :lol:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 2:06 pm

Excuse me but hasn't the Case-Shiller index thing been forcasting "rainy" weather for more than over the last decade? :lol:
Their model wasn't good enough to predict this amazing boom. So how can they be given the proper credit to predict a crash? :lol:
The Case Shiller index tracks the US market but historically we have moved loosely in track with that market. Schiller was dead on with his forecast of the US market collapse and has been saying similar things about Canada in recent times, along with the IMF, the Bank of Canada and a whole slew of other banks, economists and financial analysts.

We do go out of sync with the US from time to time but the variations rarely last long before we return to a similar track. Given our tumbling dollar and frail economic outlook it seems reasonable to assume that we shouldn't be more expensive than our neighbour whose economy is growing steadily, whose interest rates are about to start rising and whose home prices are about half of ours.

I don't know when the realignment will come but I do think it's getting closer. :D
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 2:09 pm

Excuse me but hasn't the Case-Shiller index thing been forcasting "rainy" weather for more than over the last decade? :lol:
Their model wasn't good enough to predict this amazing boom. So how can they be given the proper credit to predict a crash? :lol:
he/she admitted the index is foreign lol. Its not related to Canada. Things are different here.
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 2:58 pm

Excuse me but hasn't the Case-Shiller index thing been forcasting "rainy" weather for more than over the last decade? :lol:
Their model wasn't good enough to predict this amazing boom. So how can they be given the proper credit to predict a crash? :lol:
he/she admitted the index is foreign lol. Its not related to Canada. Things are different here.
That's true. And things were different here in 1911 when the average Vancouver house price was $887K. Of course a crash like that can't happen again (even though it has) because it's different here (this time). :lol:
Vancouver 1911 bubble

Average SFH price was $887,000

By 1893, a lot in the same area sold for $1,100, and, by 1900, an adjoining lot went for roughly $4,250. Incredibly, by 1912, – at a time when wages were roughly 50 cents an hour, and a tailored suit cost less than $40 – a lot in the very same area was worth $725,000.

However, the prewar boom was not to last. Between 1913 and 1915, following the U.S. stock market collapse, and resultant worldwide depression, Vancouver’s real estate bubble burst for the first (and possibly only) time; suddenly, commercial rents declined by 50%, and ordinary working people, no longer able to meet their obligations, defaulted on their loans. The city of South Vancouver went into receivership. The market was decimated. In fact, there is one recorded instance of a corner lot on Cambie and Broadway being listed for $90,000, and eventually selling for less than $8,000.

 - See more at: http://thedependent.ca/featured/land-de ... iw39F.dpuf
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:00 pm

I don't make references to things over 100 years ago
 
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thompson2
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:05 pm

Excuse me but hasn't the Case-Shiller index thing been forcasting "rainy" weather for more than over the last decade? :lol:
Their model wasn't good enough to predict this amazing boom. So how can they be given the proper credit to predict a crash? :lol:
Exactly, Whip.

If Case-Shiller's theory and Geyser's words (average Vancouver house price was $887,000 in 1911) are correct, my math leads me to believe that Vancouver isn't in bubble at all...far from that, actually Vancouver is deeply in shit, totally undervalued. Think about ..., $887,000 in 1911 equals to $27 m today after inflation. According to Case-Shiller, real estate in this world has to follow inflation, our average house price today ($1.4 m ) is nothing comparing to what we should be ($27m)! A gap of $25.6m need us to fill!, oh my! :lol:

Geyser, take off your bear's hat please, I think you are a biggest bull in history.:lol:
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:11 pm

I don't make references to things over 100 years ago
How about the approximately 50% plunge in Vancouver home prices in 1982? Or do you refuse to consider things from the 1980s too? :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:13 pm

That's a long time ago
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:15 pm

Excuse me but hasn't the Case-Shiller index thing been forcasting "rainy" weather for more than over the last decade? :lol:
Their model wasn't good enough to predict this amazing boom. So how can they be given the proper credit to predict a crash? :lol:
Exactly, Whip.

If Case-Shiller's theory and Geyser's words (average Vancouver house price was $887,000 in 1911) are correct, my math leads me to believe that Vancouver isn't in bubble at all...far from that, actually Vancouver is deeply in shit, totally undervalued. Think about ..., $887,000 in 1911 equals to $27 m today after inflation. According to Case-Shiller, real estate in this world has to follow inflation, our average house price today ($1.4 m ) is nothing comparing to what we should be ($27m)! A gap of $25.6m need us to fill!, oh my! :lol:

Geyser, take off your bear's hat please, I think you are a biggest bull in history.:lol:
So there we have it. If the 1911 local house price of $887K was reasonable, then we have nothing to worry about.

Yes, I can agree with that. It's only the "if" that I worry about. What if $887K in 1911 was overpriced? :shock:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:16 pm

That's a long time ago
Not so long ago that I wasn't soiling my pants worrying about renewing my mortgage at double the rates.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:22 pm

Not sure the connection between fecal matter and mortgages
 
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thompson2
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:27 pm

Excuse me but hasn't the Case-Shiller index thing been forcasting "rainy" weather for more than over the last decade? :lol:
Their model wasn't good enough to predict this amazing boom. So how can they be given the proper credit to predict a crash? :lol:
Exactly, Whip.

If Case-Shiller's theory and Geyser's words (average Vancouver house price was $887,000 in 1911) are correct, my math leads me to believe that Vancouver isn't in bubble at all...far from that, actually Vancouver is deeply in shit, totally undervalued. Think about ..., $887,000 in 1911 equals to $27 m today after inflation. According to Case-Shiller, real estate in this world has to follow inflation, our average house price today ($1.4 m ) is nothing comparing to what we should be ($27m)! A gap of $25.6m need us to fill!, oh my! :lol:

Geyser, take off your bear's hat please, I think you are a biggest bull in history.:lol:
So there we have it. If the 1911 local house price of $887K was reasonable, then we have nothing to worry about.

Yes, I can agree with that. It's only the "if" that I worry about. What if $887K in 1911 was overpriced? :shock:
:lol: :lol: :lol:

If $877k was overpriced, we can agree on these:

Vancouver hasn't recovered from a 100 year's old bubble! If history repeats itself, today's price is actually dirt cheap, we may have a $25.6m to run!! :) You still beat me as a bull, Geyser. :P
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Fri Aug 07, 2015 4:05 pm

As the crowd waits for the market to crash....undaunted Thompson loads up and wins! :lol:

You people with the charts, throw them out! They weren't any good 13 years ago and they're still no good today. Those charts are useless and you will still be just as clueless as you ever were. All the charts predicted a crash for the past dozen years, but the exact opposite happened. Too bad there's a fire ban in most of the province of BC because that's where the charts belong....in a big bonfire. :mrgreen:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
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