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Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Tue Aug 04, 2015 1:14 pm

"Geyser"

That's right! The big price collapse which have frequently happened before can never happen again because it's different this time. :lol:
Biggest price collapse 1981
Second biggest 2008-09

which one are you referring to? LOL
If you look at inflation adjusted charts you will see lots of price collapses in Vancouver, such big drops are not that unusual. Some are quick and some play out over decades, sometimes many decades.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Tue Aug 04, 2015 1:31 pm


Did you know that at the top of the Vancouver 1911 real estate bubble the average Vancouver house price was $887,000? No, thats not a typo, $887,000 over a hundred years ago!!! Scary stuff eh? But it does show that our current bubble could go even higher in relationship to incomes before the mother of all corrections kicks in. :shock:

http://thedependent.ca/featured/land-de ... vancouver/
Holy shit, $887,000, very scary :P , but I think it's Vancouver 2011, not 1911.

Use your common sense Geyser.
I assume you didn't bother to read the article. Too scary?

Here are a couple of quotes:
By 1893, a lot in the same area sold for $1,100, and, by 1900, an adjoining lot went for roughly $4,250. Incredibly, by 1912, – at a time when wages were roughly 50 cents an hour, and a tailored suit cost less than $40 – a lot in the very same area was worth $725,000.

However, the prewar boom was not to last. Between 1913 and 1915, following the U.S. stock market collapse, and resultant worldwide depression, Vancouver’s real estate bubble burst for the first (and possibly only) time; suddenly, commercial rents declined by 50%, and ordinary working people, no longer able to meet their obligations, defaulted on their loans. The city of South Vancouver went into receivership. The market was decimated. In fact, there is one recorded instance of a corner lot on Cambie and Broadway being listed for $90,000, and eventually selling for less than $8,000.

 - See more at: http://thedependent.ca/featured/land-de ... iw39F.dpuf
As Whippy noted, the circumstances today are completely different here, but they were also completely different when the Tokyo residential market lost 90% and some commercial lots in Ginza lost 99%. It's reasonable to hope that our coming correction will be less severe than some others we have seen, but to say it can't possibly happen here is naive in the extreme.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
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thompson2
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Tue Aug 04, 2015 10:25 pm

Common Geyser, use your brain!

It was a specific lot mentioned in the article, not "average vancouver house price"!! Why people spent that much money for a lot is beyond me, ... maybe it was for a very expensive highrise, or a new landmark in the city, but definitely you can't sell each and every ( an average) lot in Vancouver for that price!

Do you know how much it worths today for $887,000 in 1911? I guess you have to time a factor of 100! :mrgreen: I don't have to split hair for your article, I just know this number can not be " an average Vancouver house price".
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Tue Aug 04, 2015 11:21 pm

Common Geyser, use your brain!

It was a specific lot mentioned in the article, not "average vancouver house price"!! Why people spent that much money for a lot is beyond me, ... maybe it was for a very expensive highrise, or a new landmark in the city, but definitely you can't sell each and every ( an average) lot in Vancouver for that price!

Do you know how much it worths today for $887,000 in 1911? I guess you have to time a factor of 100! :mrgreen: I don't have to split hair for your article, I just know this number can not be " an average Vancouver house price".
Oh dear, read the article! Here's another extract for you:
The Early Years


James Quiney's Real Estate Office, circa 1920. Image Courtesy of the Vancouver Archives

In 1887, only a year after incorporation, Vancouver had 12 grocery stores and 16 real estate firms. The city’s first mayor, Malcolm McLean, was a real estate agent. But, in the late 1870s, before the arrival of the CPR, land in what is now downtown Vancouver sold for approximately $1.00 an acre. Previous to that, the West End itself was granted to  Englishmen Samuel Brighouse, John Morton and William Hailstone for a total of 116 pounds (a sum thought to be so exorbitant that it earned them the nickname “The Three Greenhorns”). However, by 1886, with the announcement that Vancouver would be the home of the CPR’s coveted Western Terminus, property values skyrocketed, and suddenly a lot near Granville and Dunsmuir was selling for $400. By 1893, a lot in the same area sold for $1,100, and, by 1900, an adjoining lot went for roughly $4,250. Incredibly, by 1912, – at a time when wages were roughly 50 cents an hour, and a tailored suit cost less than $40 – a lot in the very same area was worth $725,000. Property speculation was so rampant that, when the first CPR land auction took place in 1886, (the railway was granted large tracts of land in exchange for extending their Western Terminus) Vancouver CEO Harry Abbott realized with dismay that speculators “had seized upon all the best sites without any intention of putting up buildings.” By 1889, proceeds from the sale of granted land in Vancouver had made the CPR more money than in all other company towns across the country, combined.

- See more at: http://thedependent.ca/featured/land-de ... VfDop.dpuf
And if the article doesn't work for you, look at the famous Schiller chart of US property prices from 1890 to 2011. It took almost a hundred years for "real" prices (inflation adjusted) to recover from the price collapse in the late 1890s.

Yeah, I know, it can't happen this time because this time it's different. Really??? Are you willing to bet your financial ass on that?

http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/as ... %20(2).png
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Wed Aug 05, 2015 5:33 am

Common Geyser, use your brain!

It was a specific lot mentioned in the article, not "average vancouver house price"!! Why people spent that much money for a lot is beyond me, ... maybe it was for a very expensive highrise, or a new landmark in the city, but definitely you can't sell each and every ( an average) lot in Vancouver for that price!

Do you know how much it worths today for $887,000 in 1911? I guess you have to time a factor of 100! :mrgreen: I don't have to split hair for your article, I just know this number can not be " an average Vancouver house price".
Exactly. People mentioning old articles are funny level 2.
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Wed Aug 05, 2015 9:53 am

Common Geyser, use your brain!

It was a specific lot mentioned in the article, not "average vancouver house price"!! Why people spent that much money for a lot is beyond me, ... maybe it was for a very expensive highrise, or a new landmark in the city, but definitely you can't sell each and every ( an average) lot in Vancouver for that price!

Do you know how much it worths today for $887,000 in 1911? I guess you have to time a factor of 100! :mrgreen: I don't have to split hair for your article, I just know this number can not be " an average Vancouver house price".
Exactly. People mentioning old articles are funny level 2.
Yeah, never look back, it might upset the current delusions. :lol:

And certainly don't look at the last couple of decades in the Tokyo market where home prices dropped by 90%. Fortunately it can't happen here because, unlike Tokyo, we are a "World Class City" :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Wed Aug 05, 2015 9:57 am

always look back...it might support your delusions
 
tdma800
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:07 am

Vancouver isn't the same as Tokyo. That's halfway across the world.
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:12 am

always look back...it might support your delusions
History doesn't necessarily repeat itself, but it does tend to rhyme. :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:14 am

Vancouver isn't the same as Tokyo. That's halfway across the world.
Therefore it can't possibly happen here. I wonder if that's what the Japanese said in the early 1900's when it did happen here. :lol:

"It's different here!" until it isn't. :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:16 am

Japan is quite far away and has many differences, that is not related with Vancouver
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:24 am

Japan is quite far away and has many differences, that is not related with Vancouver
Do you think Vancouver was more like Tokyo when our property values plunged on numerous occasions in the past??? What's your point?
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:26 am

Japan is quite far away and has many differences, that is not related with Vancouver
even a dipshit should know this. Japan has a NO IMMIGRATION POLICY
 
Geyser
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Wed Aug 05, 2015 10:50 am

Japan is quite far away and has many differences, that is not related with Vancouver
even a dipshit should know this. Japan has a NO IMMIGRATION POLICY
What an incredibly silly statement. Of course they allow immigration, but it is tightly controlled at typically less than 100K per year. The pressure on their cities comes from internal migration and has resulted in the Tokyo/Yokohama sprawl having an estimated population in excess of 35 million.

To look at it another way. When their residential property prices collapsed by 90% it was not because 90% of the population suddenly departed, it was because, very suddenly, nobody wanted to buy at the crazy inflated prices and once the price slide started, no body would even look at property in a collapsing market. Just the same psychology we have seen here and in the USA during the big North American price collapses.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
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Re: Mark my words .. RE will drop between now and post elect

Wed Aug 05, 2015 6:42 pm

Japan is quite far away and has many differences, that is not related with Vancouver
even a dipshit should know this. Japan has a NO IMMIGRATION POLICY
Its very amusing when un-named individuals talk about Japan, however that is not Canada, things are different here
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