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eyesthebye2
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 11:00 am

I don't understand your point. Investor will take the money if the market stops growing. Because the investment becomes inefficient or actually costs money.
that's a misguided assumption fabien - that the investor of detached homes care much about the short term ebb and flow of the market.
I personally believe that detached buyers are in the the long haul - 20-25 years plus. They are investing for their children's future...not just for a
shortsighted quick buck.

I dug up my comments about the disappearing detached property from 4 years ago
by eyesthebye » Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:35 pm

very interesting stats.
I had assumed that there were approx 70,000 detached single family homes in Vancouver.
it appears that this is what it was circa 1991 (67,840), and 2006 shows that this was reduced
to 48,365 by redvelopment to multi-family
So my assumption is now backed by stats.
Each year there are fewer and fewer single family homes in this city.
Perhaps if we added the 20,000 SFH that were converted to other we might actually
see some prices reductions and some point in the future.

Just think Vanpro, we're losing 1300 detached homes each year, so we're probably sitting at 43K right now.
In another 15 years the single family detached might be a very rare sight indeed.
 
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Dragonslayer
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 11:05 am

Edit note:
Changed "Liquidate" to "Race to Liquidate" just in case anyone forgot the USA in 2008
 
Fabien
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 11:11 am

I don't understand your point. Investor will take the money if the market stops growing. Because the investment becomes inefficient or actually costs money.
that's a misguided assumption fabien - that the investor of detached homes care much about the short term ebb and flow of the market.
I personally believe that detached buyers are in the the long haul - 20-25 years plus. They are investing for their children's future...not just for a
shortsighted quick buck.

I dug up my comments about the disappearing detached property from 4 years ago
by eyesthebye » Thu Oct 13, 2011 2:35 pm

very interesting stats.
I had assumed that there were approx 70,000 detached single family homes in Vancouver.
it appears that this is what it was circa 1991 (67,840), and 2006 shows that this was reduced
to 48,365 by redvelopment to multi-family
So my assumption is now backed by stats.
Each year there are fewer and fewer single family homes in this city.
Perhaps if we added the 20,000 SFH that were converted to other we might actually
see some prices reductions and some point in the future.

Just think Vanpro, we're losing 1300 detached homes each year, so we're probably sitting at 43K right now.
In another 15 years the single family detached might be a very rare sight indeed.
No question that the supply make up has changed. We can argue about what constitutes a family house all night, so yes, the devil is in the detail. However IMO no supply changes alone (file alongside cheap credit) take SFH to these price levels. That's the point. That's where you and I differ.

The other point I think you're missing is that IF prices haltIF investors bail then supply increases by default, and perhaps crucially very few income earning families can touch Westside at today prices even if they wanted to. Can't qualify for the credit. Clearly a potential downward spiral if the foreign comonent / local investor component evaporates. Too many red fags in 2013, and too many today. Nothing has changed.
 
tdma800
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 12:21 pm

http://www.vancouversun.com/Editorial+S ... story.html
"A second fact that needs to be recognized is that Vancouver is receiving 7,000 new residents a year while the region receives more than 30,000 a year, through in-migration and immigration. These newcomers are not speculators. They want housing. But they, too, are putting pressure on a market with a finite land base,"
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 1:29 pm

fabien,

so if supply and demand are moving in opposite directions, how do you expect an eventful, lasting correction to occur?
Just wondering how much of what you post is wishful thinking and how much is well considered research.

You sell your personal residence here in Vancouver you take the risk of losing any ability to buy back in if you're speculation is wrong.
Unless you're very wealthy and can afford the 200-300K loss it looks like you're going to shoulder from being wrong about the market.

(edit, sorry...it was dragonslayer that sold there home last year)

Personally, nothing changes for me from a several hundred thousand dollar change in either direction of the market.
I don't fcuk around with my housing. That is, I'm not that itchy to see the cash from my paper gains.
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 2:30 pm

The solution was to buy several years ago.
We dun' tried to tell y'all.


I wrote a new pome :lol: ....it's called,

"They Laughed At First"
"hahahahaha".... they laughed
"Whatever goes up must come down" ...they joked
...and the prices went higher,
"It's not different this time".... they mocked
...and the prices went even higher,
"Fundamentals".... they howled,
....and the prices went even higher,
and finally they were silent.
:P
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
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Dragonslayer
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 3:48 pm

Yeah
That was me who sold last year. I`m happy with my choice to sell. Its buying in this market that has me incontinent from the offcontinent competition
 
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Dragonslayer
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 3:52 pm

There once was a poster named Sem
Who saved up his pennies and then
Bought a house with his wife
Planned to stay there for life
Time passed by
Development came nigh
So they sold at a gain
But buying was a pain
So they rented a house in a lane
 
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thompson2
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 6:59 pm

There once was a poster named Sem
Who saved up his pennies and then
Bought a house with his wife
Planned to stay there for life
Time passed by
Development came nigh
So they sold at a gain
But buying was a pain
So they rented a house in a lane

your poem is as good as Whip's. ...especially "sold at gain, buying was a pain, so rented a house in a lane". :lol: :lol: :P
 
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thompson2
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 7:13 pm

just talk to a realtor today, he told me buying a condo is "new normal" for newbies. He believes this is the solution, like New York or San Francisco, etc.
 
westcoastfella
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 8:43 pm


that's a misguided assumption fabien - that the investor of detached homes care much about the short term ebb and flow of the market.
I personally believe that detached buyers are in the the long haul - 20-25 years plus. They are investing for their children's future...not just for a
shortsighted quick buck.
Its funny how you call fabien's assumption misguided, only to put forth your own "assumption" based purely on your own view and situation as The Way It Is. FWIW, I have never heard anyone say they bought a house to "invest in their children's future"... except you. Nearly everyone I know owns a house to a) live in, and b) cash out of when they get old enough and need the money.
 
Austin
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:16 pm

People are not unhappy about the "lifestyle". People are upset that they are being forced to move away from family and friends and are being physically divided by social class.
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
Austin
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:24 pm

just talk to a realtor today, he told me buying a condo is "new normal" for newbies. He believes this is the solution, like New York or San Francisco, etc.
The problem is this fundamentally justified given wages in Vancouver as compared to New York or San Francisco. Those aren't appropriate comparisons. Perth and Sydney make more sense.
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:44 pm


that's a misguided assumption fabien - that the investor of detached homes care much about the short term ebb and flow of the market.
I personally believe that detached buyers are in the the long haul - 20-25 years plus. They are investing for their children's future...not just for a
shortsighted quick buck.
Its funny how you call fabien's assumption misguided, only to put forth your own "assumption" based purely on your own view and situation as The Way It Is. FWIW, I have never heard anyone say they bought a house to "invest in their children's future"... except you. Nearly everyone I know owns a house to a) live in, and b) cash out of when they get old enough and need the money.
the neighbours that bought their detached after I did ALL have children. They may not be verbalizing it the way I have, but investing in their children' is exactly what they are doing. The most recent buyer is for a old beat up, original condition 1975 Vancouver special on a 40' wisde lot. Do you think they bought because they cared if the market went up, down or sideways? They have a 2 year old. They paid near 1.3Million.
Again, this data is not easy to collect - but I bet the vast majority of detached buyers have children that are moving into those houses.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: Bulls cheer. Newbies weep. Solutions?

Wed Jun 10, 2015 9:46 pm

People are not unhappy about the "lifestyle". People are upset that they are being forced to move away from family and friends and are being physically divided by social class.
caucasian move away, asian never do. Hate to divide this along those lines but I can\t be more exact about this

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