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thompson2
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why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sat Dec 14, 2013 12:33 pm

We all know re is periodical, 10 to 15 year for a cycle. But this time RE of Vancouver is a little different than before. Market, especially SFH, go up and up for 13 years, hardly show any weakness.

Where is the long wait "correction" or "crash" then? I totally understand( but not necessary agree with) why Geyser switched his position from bull to bear now. He is old( :) experienced) and smart enough to realize that time for a Bull market is too long to be ignored, so the odds for a correction is never bigger than before.

But, what's really going on for real estate of Vancouver is still everybody guessing. My personal opinion is 40 to 60: history asks me go with Geyser, but open system theory ( Vancouver market is not a local market anymore) ask me go with "soft landing".

....What's ur opinion?
 
Lost Soul
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sat Dec 14, 2013 2:17 pm

....What's ur opinion?
that buying RE in Van is not all that different from buying stocks. :D
-- Wish you were here ...
 
unicas
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sat Dec 14, 2013 2:19 pm

this is more than just a coincidence
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thompson2
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sat Dec 14, 2013 2:50 pm

....What's ur opinion?
that buying RE in Van is not all that different from buying stocks.
Well, RE will be the same with stock if you can
(1) short house market
(2) day trade in re
(3) totally Hobo (no property and no rental,... cable is ok). :P
 
Geyser
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sat Dec 14, 2013 3:25 pm

....What's ur opinion?
that buying RE in Van is not all that different from buying stocks. :D
Another remarkably stupid comment. Keep it coming. :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sat Dec 14, 2013 4:41 pm

Thompson!!! Hurray! You're back!!! :mrgreen:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sat Dec 14, 2013 5:36 pm

I think we will see some minor corrections over the short-medium run and modest long term growth.
.... do you realize that had you uttered this opinion in the past you would have been virtually "burnt at the stake" with ridicule and derision?
Yes, the Huffers would have mocked you with slogans such as ,
"whatever goes up has to come down"
" baaah~baaah you sheeple"
"knife catcher"
" my opportunity costs are too high, I would rather buy stocks"
"it's cheaper to rent"
"fundamentals...fundamentals...fundamentals"
....hahahahaha... :P

I guess the Huffers gave up as most of them have taken up crocheting. I guess it's more their speed. :mrgreen:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
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thompson2
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sat Dec 14, 2013 9:48 pm

Thompson!!! Hurray! You're back!!! :mrgreen:
Hi, WM, glad to see u still here. :lol:
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sat Dec 14, 2013 10:57 pm

hahahaha Mr Argufy!!!!!..... :mrgreen:
10 years is a long time to be on the correct side of the debate. 10 years may feel longer if you are on the wrong side. So now it's time to give the Huffers back all the mockery (and then some) that they dished out over the years.

Ten longgggg yearrrrrrrrrrrs...... fawk!
Are we having a good time yet? I sure hope so. :mrgreen:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
Lost Soul
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sun Dec 15, 2013 4:04 am

....What's ur opinion?
that buying RE in Van is not all that different from buying stocks. :D
Another remarkably stupid comment. Keep it coming. :lol:
Do you mean you really believe that there aren't similarities between investing in RE and investing in stocks?! :shock:
Shades of etb ...
-- Wish you were here ...
 
Austin
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sun Dec 15, 2013 6:15 am

It's a combination of open system theory and asian growth (what Unicas pointed out) and Canada's support (and its ability/desire to do so) for Real Estate via CMHC. Vancouver is structurally the most expensive market in Canada (and always has been), due to geography / livability relative to other Canadian cities.

Canada's RE could tank even in the face of asian growth if for some reason our ability to support RE becomes significantly impaired. One possible cause of that might be deflation in commodities .. .but how that can happen alongside asian growth is difficult.

One possibility is the discovery of some new found technology (maybe cold fusion or something) that allows the world to rapidly jump off oil. I personally see this as very unlikely, though Kurzweil is optimistic about Solar reaching 100% penetration by 2030 so who knows.

That being said, if the world can go solar 100%, than I think we'll find that should juice the global economy in other ways that are good for Canada.

Another possibility is for some political reason they decide to dump the CMHC. I don't quite see that happening, but they have tightened before .. maybe they will over tighten and cause a panic run. It's happened before in other markets.
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
Geyser
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sun Dec 15, 2013 8:38 am

Do you mean you really believe that there aren't similarities between investing in RE and investing in stocks?! :shock:
Shades of etb ...
Any similarities are vague at best.

How do you day trade homes? How often do you see the value of real estate plunge to zero and cease trading? Can you live in a stock certificate? How much costly maintenance does your stock portfolio require? How much does it cost to heat?
If you move to another city can you take your house and garden with you? If you suddenly need cash can you sell your house in minutes? If you want to invest $100k without leverage how many homes can you diversify into? How much multinational exposure can a $100 real estate investment provide?

The list of differences goes on and on but the similarities are very few.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Lost Soul
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sun Dec 15, 2013 10:05 am

Do you mean you really believe that there aren't similarities between investing in RE and investing in stocks?! :shock:
Shades of etb ...
Any similarities are vague at best.

How do you day trade homes? How often do you see the value of real estate plunge to zero and cease trading? Can you live in a stock certificate? How much costly maintenance does your stock portfolio require? How much does it cost to heat?
If you move to another city can you take your house and garden with you? If you suddenly need cash can you sell your house in minutes? If you want to invest $100k without leverage how many homes can you diversify into? How much multinational exposure can a $100 real estate investment provide?

The list of differences goes on and on but the similarities are very few.
You're going on and on as usual about technicalities and not what really matters. I think most people would be more concerned about the fundamental issues like whether it makes or loses them money. As people have posted previously, the in-flows of money to Van RE from overseas right now are not from flippers/day-traders -- they're buy and pass on to their descendants -- not altogether different from long-term stock investors. Funny how you ignore this aspect when your most recent posts are all about how you have your especial insight regarding the odds of a correction in RE and what you've done with your portfolio as a result.
-- Wish you were here ...
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sun Dec 15, 2013 12:12 pm

Yes Thompson, a very good question.
Aren't you glad that you are on the right side of the debate? :D

I can't get over the number of "sold" signs that are popping up.
Havent these buyers been told that we are overpriced? :shock:

But it's generally a worldwide thing happening.
Prices are up, up, up....not just in Vancouver, but from what I have heard, most major cities around the world. :mrgreen:

So Vancouver crashes when the world crashes I guess. :mrgreen:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
tedeastside
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Re: why does real estate of Vancouver not crash yet

Sun Dec 15, 2013 2:01 pm

retirees are leaving Coconut Grove Florida and moving to world-class vancouver ? for the steam clocks, CFL games , really expensive ethnic restaurants and ocean views?

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