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MikeStewartRealtor
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November 2013 REBGV Stats courtesy Mike Stewart Realtor

Tue Dec 03, 2013 2:02 pm

Steady trends continue in the Greater Vancouver housing market
Consistent home sale and listing activity has allowed balanced market conditions to prevail in the Greater Vancouver housing market for most of 2013.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential property sales in Greater Vancouver reached 2,321 on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in November 2013. This represents a 37.7 per cent increase compared to the 1,686 sales recorded in November 2012, and a 12.8 per cent decline compared to the 2,661 sales in October 2013.

Last month’s sales were 1.2 per cent below the 10-year sales average for the month, while new listings were 1.5 per cent above the 10-year November average.
“We’ve seen steady and consistent trends the Greater Vancouver housing market for much of this year,” Sandra Wyant, REBGV president said. “This year’s activity has resulted in gradual and modest increases in home prices of approximately one per cent over the last 12 months in the region.”

New listings for detached, attached and apartment properties in Greater Vancouver totalled 3,245 in November. This represents a 17.7 per cent increase compared to the 2,758 new listings reported in November 2012 and a 24.8 per cent decline compared to the 4,315 new listings in October of this year.

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® in Greater Vancouver is 13,986, a 10.9 per cent decrease compared to November 2012 and an 8.3 per cent decline compared to October 2013.
The sales-to-active-listings ratio currently sits at 16.6 per cent in Greater Vancouver.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver is currently $603,000. This represents a 1 per cent increase compared to November 2012.

Sales of detached properties reached 926 in November 2013, an increase of 47.2 per cent from the 629 detached sales recorded in November 2012, and a 1.1 per cent increase from the 916 units sold in November 2011. The benchmark price for detached properties increased 1.1 per cent from November 2012 to $924,800.

Sales of apartment properties reached 969 in November 2013, an increase of 29.2 per cent compared to the 750 sales in November 2012, and a decline of 3.1 per cent compared to the 1,000 sales in November 2011. The benchmark price of an apartment property increased 0.8 per cent from November 2012 to $367,800.

Attached property sales in November 2013 totalled 426, an increase of 38.8 per cent compared to the 307 sales in November 2012, and a 4.1 per cent decline compared to the 444 attached properties sold in November 2011. The benchmark price of an attached unit is currently $458,000, which is a 0.8 per cent increase from November 2012.

CHECK OUT THE FULL PACKAGE --->>> http://bit.ly/Nov_2013_REBGV_Stats
 
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jesse1
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Re: November 2013 REBGV Stats courtesy Mike Stewart Realtor

Tue Dec 03, 2013 2:16 pm

Thanks, Mike, always good to read the detailed data.
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Geyser
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Re: November 2013 REBGV Stats courtesy Mike Stewart Realtor

Tue Dec 03, 2013 5:58 pm

Mike, you seem like a straight shooter. You are probably aware of the number-fudging which appears to have been going on with the real estate boards claims of market activity. I'm unimpressed with Barrie's vague attempts at deflections but perhaps you can give us a relatively unbiased view of what's happening.

Thanks.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
thirdlittlepig
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Re: November 2013 REBGV Stats courtesy Mike Stewart Realtor

Wed Dec 04, 2013 6:59 am

Thanks Mike. Looks like the tighter requirements have stopped the escalation in prices and low interest rates continue to stimulate buying. All those folks saving for a downpayment and getting their personal finances in order to better qualify for a mortgage, can continue to hope that they are making the right decision.
 
Austin
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Re: November 2013 REBGV Stats courtesy Mike Stewart Realtor

Wed Dec 04, 2013 7:15 am

Yeah, that's a very interesting point TLP.

Let's forget about the last 10 years. The question is, what do you do today?
Redistribute consumption, not income.
 
rofina
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Re: November 2013 REBGV Stats courtesy Mike Stewart Realtor

Wed Dec 04, 2013 7:45 am

Yeah, that's a very interesting point TLP.

Let's forget about the last 10 years. The question is, what do you do today?
Thats pretty much where I stand as well. What to do now? I think the major issue is that the property ladder is nearly snapped in 2.

SFH has marched ahead so far that the first time buyers and equity builders have no chance to catch up. Where does that leave someone looking to upgrade from a 2 bed 1.5bath condo thats more or less the same value as 5 years ago?

Add to this that condos that could substitute for a SFH, often actually cost more than one. There is only a handful of 3 bed 2 bath units, and they are usually sub penthouses in the million dollar range.

That being said, I think its pretty hard to make a case today that buying a pre-sale is a good idea. However, I'm all ears for possible upsides.
And I think the same goes for condos, supply is high, plenty of completions coming down the line, prices soft and drifting down every so slowly.
A prudent saver with a good job and cheap rent stands to make much more ground by aggressively saving a large downpayment for a longer period.
 
jimtan
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Re: November 2013 REBGV Stats courtesy Mike Stewart Realtor

Wed Dec 04, 2013 8:56 am

HahaHa! :mrgreen:

The greatest defeat of the bears. Vancouver is up compared to 5 years ago (2008). That's right. 2008, the start of the BIG WAVE. The Straights is announcing it to the world.

"Lower Mainland house market rebounds


... The benchmark price for detached homes on Vancouver’s West Side was almost $2.1 million, up 3.3 percent over the year and 51.6 percent over five years, when the housing market went into a deep tailspin.

The benchmark price of detached homes on the East Side of Vancouver was $855,900. That was 2.5-percent higher than a year ago and 39.9 percent more than five years ago.

For apartment units, the benchmark price on the West Side was $471,500. That was a modest 0.7 percent higher than a year ago, and 14.1 percent over the benchmark price of five years ago...


The only decreases over the year were in Richmond (down 2.7 percent), Bowen Island (down 1.5 percent), Tsawwassen (down 1.1 percent), the Sunshine Coast (down 3.8 percent), and Port Coquitlam (down 0.5 percent)."


http://www.straight.com/news/541586/low ... t-rebounds
 
Geyser
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Re: November 2013 REBGV Stats courtesy Mike Stewart Realtor

Wed Dec 04, 2013 5:48 pm

If you're referring to the HPI you probably shouldn't get too excited, it is notoriously misleading and even some realtors appear to be uncomfortable with it.

Here's how it was described last September on The Greater Fool blog:
Frankenumbers come from actual sales data which is scrubbed – “reformatted, analysed, sorted, and in some cases, amended” – with high and low sales deliberately removed to blend prices, then expressed over a five-year base, and sometimes manually diddled.

Canadians have the bulk of their net worth in their houses, with home ownership at an unprecedented level. Most of them think this ride will continue without end, and why not? With each day that passes the real estate cartel finds new ways to lure and ensnare. The Frankenumber may be its greatest achievement.
I have an interest in condos on the Downtown peninsula and I can assure you that the condo market here has been flat for years. The most recent sale in a building I'm involved in was an above average condition suite which just sold for about 5% below a very similar unit which sold in early 2008. I've seen similar sales in other buildings. It's not a crash but it does appear to be a steadily softening market.

Now that Depreciation Reports are due it will be interesting to see their impact on this segment of the market. I anticipate that buyers will demand offsetting discounts to help cover the future costs which all buildings have? The bigger the problems the bigger the discount. I also anticipate that building's without a report will become very hard to sell.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
rofina
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Re: November 2013 REBGV Stats courtesy Mike Stewart Realtor

Wed Dec 04, 2013 5:53 pm

If you're referring to the HPI you probably shouldn't get too excited, it is notoriously misleading and even some realtors appear to be uncomfortable with it.

Here's how it was described last September on The Greater Fool blog:
Frankenumbers come from actual sales data which is scrubbed – “reformatted, analysed, sorted, and in some cases, amended” – with high and low sales deliberately removed to blend prices, then expressed over a five-year base, and sometimes manually diddled.

Canadians have the bulk of their net worth in their houses, with home ownership at an unprecedented level. Most of them think this ride will continue without end, and why not? With each day that passes the real estate cartel finds new ways to lure and ensnare. The Frankenumber may be its greatest achievement.
I have an interest in condos on the Downtown peninsula and I can assure you that the condo market here has been flat for years. The most recent sale in a building I'm involved in was an above average condition suite which just sold for about 5% below a very similar unit which sold in early 2008. I've seen similar sales in other buildings. It's not a crash but it does appear to be a steadily softening market.

Now that Depreciation Reports are due it will be interesting to see their impact on this segment of the market. I anticipate that buyers will demand offsetting discounts to help cover the future costs which all buildings have? The bigger the problems the bigger the discount. I also anticipate that building's without a report will become very hard to sell.

Agreed. I think deprecation reports are a game changer for the condo market. I certainly hope that it works both ways, in that well maintained, well operated buildings are rewarded with higher liquidity and/or price.
 
Geyser
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Re: November 2013 REBGV Stats courtesy Mike Stewart Realtor

Thu Dec 05, 2013 2:40 am

At least in theory the well maintained buildings should benefit. I would expect a realistic buyer to factor in the anticipated repair and maintenance costs and bid accordingly. Similarly, when faced with a "pig in a poke" building with no Depreciation Report, I would expect them to say - "see ya".

It does occur to me that the new rules will force buyers to take their heads out of the sand with regard to the real cost of maintaining property. Now the true cost will be on the table it will probably cause prices to soften some more. When I was a young guy buying my first house it might have frightened me away if I had known how much it was really going to cost me to maintain the place.

Just how much prices are affected remains to be seen but it should correlate to the future expenses which are identified in each individual building. Modest additional future costs - modest discounts, huge additional future costs - well, remember the leaky condo fiasco!

When you consider roofing, elevators, plumbing, pumps, windows, caulking, other electrical, carpets, etc., etc., even a well maintained building of around 100 suites is likely to need more than $3 million spent over a 25 year period to keep it in good shape, and that's not including all the routine minor maintenance. Do the math before you buy, $300 per month maintenance fees are probably ridiculously optimistic and are likely a danger sign for major special assessments, but have you ever replumbed, rewired or re-roofed a house? That isn't cheap either!
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.

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