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fishguy15
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Sat Jun 01, 2013 2:12 pm

Read... Dummy!
So Jerry, getting back to your OP, how many of the homeowners wanting to buy in five years will also be sellers in five years? I bet it'll be close to 50%.
 
Geyser
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Sat Jun 01, 2013 2:56 pm

Ah Jimmy, there you go again. I see the data point cutoff is now moved back to 2011 and I admit that back then the property market looked pretty healthy - so long as you ignored the underlying fundamentals.

I see you appear to give greater credibility to the "Burnaby News Leader" than to the Globe & Mail but I'm not familiar with the former so it's hard for me to comment other than to ask if they carry much in the way of real estate advertising.

As for the Urban Futures Institute, if I was conducting a real estate seminar I can think of few people I'd rather have as a speaker than their President, David Baxter.

David Baxter was recently named one of the 20 most influential people in British Columbia's residential contruction industry" by the  Canadian Home Builder's Association

He is quoted in this real estate get-rich-quick guide:

Real Estate Investing in Canada: Creating Wealth with the ACRE System
 By Don R. Campbell

He also recently spoke to Calgary and Edmonton real estate professionals on behalf of the Alberta Real Estate Foundation. He was the second speaker in their 20th Anniversary Thought Leaders series. 
This presentation touches on how demography and studying trends can help REALTORS focus in on potential buyers and their needs.

Back before the Olympics he commented on the potential for investing in Squamish. Here are some extracts from his forecast - just in case you have some spare investment dollars burning a hole in your pocket:

- Source: Vancouver Province on Wednesday, November 15, 2006
"The employment consequences of the Games would be an additional 
92,000 job in the South west Metropolitan region under the Games scenario in 2031," Baxter said. "That is 74 per cent more jobs than in 2001 and 4.6 per cent more than there would be in 'no-Games' scenario."

The "sleeper," he said, could be Squamish.

"Within the Sea-to-Sky region, the Games scenario would result in an 
11-per-cent greater population in Squamish and a 13.4-percent greater 
population in the Whistler-Pemberton community," he said.

The Squamish region should enjoy a real boom in population and economic activity from the 2010 Games, according to Urban Futures Institute head David Baxter.
So Jimmy, any more unbiased analysis you'd like to share with us? :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Sat Jun 01, 2013 2:58 pm

The problem of unoccupied dwellings is one more of a concentration of certain dwelling types and prime locations. It's hard to argue too much on a regional basis. The refrain I hear suffers from Vancouverproperitis.
I agree that this forum is highly Vancouvercentric, but I guess that's where a high percentage of us live. It is interesting to hear about the anomalies in other parts of BC, it helps us avoid developing tunnel vision.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Sat Jun 01, 2013 3:04 pm

Read... Dummy!
So Jerry, getting back to your OP, how many of the homeowners wanting to buy in five years will also be sellers in five years? I bet it'll be close to 50%.
FWIW, I want to share a candlelight dinner with Angelina Jolie within the next five years, but I'm not betting it's going to happen. But there again, I'll be quite happy to do the same with my wife. :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
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jesse1
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Sat Jun 01, 2013 6:50 pm

this forum is highly Vancouvercentric
Not just this forum, the media is heavily Vancouver-focused, as is the refrain on Twitter (don't know about facebook, I don't have friends so don't use it). The "empty condo" thing is acute only in a very small area of Vancouver.
There is no shame in overpaying
 
jimtan
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Sat Jun 01, 2013 8:29 pm

Ah Jimmy, there you go again. I see the data point cutoff is now moved back to 2011 and I admit that back then the property market looked pretty healthy - so long as you ignored the underlying fundamentals. :
The data is from the 2011 Census. Is there a newer Census????

Really, I don't think that the demographics have changed much in two years. BTW, the fundamentals include a bull trend.

Rave on! :mrgreen:
I see you appear to give greater credibility to the "Burnaby News Leader" than to the Globe & Mail but I'm not familiar with the former so it's hard for me to comment other than to ask if they carry much in the way of real estate advertising.

As for the Urban Futures Institute, if I was conducting a real estate seminar I can think of few people I'd rather have as a speaker than their President, David Baxter.

David Baxter was recently named one of the 20 most influential people in British Columbia's residential contruction industry" by the Canadian Home Builder's Association

So Jimmy, any more unbiased analysis you'd like to share with us? :lol:
Actually, the Urban Futures report is based on the same Census data used by Andrew Yan.

Andrew highlighted the high vacancy rate in select neighbourhoods frequented by foreigners. Unfortunately, some morons have distorted Andrew's main point.

Urban Futures digs deeper and looked at the picture throughout metro Vancouver. See chart below. Suggest that you actually read the document which looks well researched.

Based on the numbers, I will go with the Urban Futures conclusion.

Thumbs down on the bears!!!!
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jesse1
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Sat Jun 01, 2013 9:28 pm

Notice the subtle difference in definition. I've highlighted the pertinent bit as a public service. I know I know, pedantry.
"Non-Resident Occupancy is defined as a regular private dwelling unit that is either "unoccupied" or "occupied solely by foreign residents and/or temporary present residents" on the census reference day - May 10, 2011"
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jimtan
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Sat Jun 01, 2013 10:06 pm

The Grasshopper speaks. Gads, I thought that you had gone audio-only.

From Urban Futures,

“The Census Undercount

No discussion of Census population counts would be complete without a discussion of the Census
undercount. This is the number of usual residents who should have been included in the Census but were,
for some reason or another, not counted. According to current estimates, there were roughly 85,000
usual residents that were missed in the region, 3.7 percent above the Census count reported for 2011.
To the extent that these people lived in units that were classified as unoccupied, the actual prevalence
of unoccupied dwellings could have been significantly lower than the recorded prevalence as per the
Census. Thus, when using Census population numbers, not only must there be an awareness of the fact
that university students who left a few weeks earlier are not included (nor were other people who were
here but did not have a main residence here), but also that they leave out another 85,000 people.”
 
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jesse1
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Sat Jun 01, 2013 10:11 pm

You're bringing up census undercounts to claim how some "unoccupied" units are actually occupied. I'm going with Occam on this one. Urban Futures I guess has chosen a more nuanced message. Strange, then, they didn't investigate the obvious: that an unoccupied unit might, you know, be unoccupied.

That was a mighty pretty graph they made; too bad they didn't add error bars for the elephant in the room.

Nothing against the overall claim of the report you cite, but they did not address the acuteness of some of the "unoccupied" claims in some very specific areas of Vancouver CMA. That's what has been getting into many people's britches. Looks to me like some specific areas of Vancouver have a vacancy issue. Whatever though, please believe me that I don't care much. Anyways, have a good night, I hope you know all the humour is in good fun.
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jimtan
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Sat Jun 01, 2013 10:24 pm

I've been enjoying the 'debate' with Geezer. He's doing a great job discrediting the bears. Keep it up! :mrgreen:

Meanwhile, this graph from Urban Futures illustrates the difference between Vancouver and Windsor. :wink:
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Geyser
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Sun Jun 02, 2013 1:25 pm

JT wrote:
The data is from the 2011 Census. Is there a newer Census????
Ah! So that's why you don't consider any data from post 2011.
Really, I don't think that the demographics have changed much in two years. BTW, the fundamentals include a bull trend.
What has definitely changed is the level of immigration into BC and the number of home sales each month. Both have tanked and that "bull trend" ended in early 2012!

You really should start looking at the developments of the last year or two, you might be shocked. Here are a few snippets for you to consider:
Western Investor February 2013

"Condopocalypse" now forecast for Vancouver

Noted Vancouver housing analyst Frank Schliewinsky is predicting a near collapse in MLS condominium sales across most of Metro Vancouver this year, with sales falling by as much as 50 per cent from a depressed 2012.

"The Mayans were right, at least as far as the Vancouver condo market goes," Schliewinsky, founder of Strategics, states in his latest Vancouver Condo Report. "Condopocalypse in 2013. MLS sales of apartment and townhouse condos could be down to 8,000 units in 2013."

If true, this would be a near-50 per cent drop in condominium and townhouse sales across the region compared with a year ago.

In the highrise market, Schliewinsky forecasts sales could fall to just 2,650 units this year, down from 3,200 in 2012. He predicts highrise condo prices will fall a further 7 per cent in 2013 following a 3 per cent drop in 2012: "The overall price trend is now negative."

The low-rise condo sector, which makes up the bulk of the resale market, will not perform any better, he warns.

"Twelve months ago the forecast was for 4,400 MLS low-rise sales in 2012," said Schliewinsky. "The actual number of sales is expected to be closer to 3,900 units and the next 12 months will likely see even fewer low-rise sales. Overall MLS low-rise sales ... could be down to 2,900 units if the present downward trend persists. That would mean a 27 per cent drop from 2012 sales.

"Eventually the market will hit bottom and right now it's not clear where the bottom is. Further price drops will play a big role in slowing the downward sales trend. The average MLS price per low-rise unit in 2012 was $326,000; a 1 per cent decline from 2011. The average price per square foot was $368; down 2 per cent from 2011. So far, price reductions for low-rise condos haven't been enough to stimulate demand and unless there's a major shift over the next 12 months, another 3 per cent drop isn't going to do much either. "

Vancouver realtors agree. They are seeing downward pressure on condominium prices, with luxury unit prices down 20 per cent from 2012 and lower-priced units down 10 per cent to 15 per cent.

Agents say a tightening of mortgage regulations for high-ratio loan insurance has affected sales of lower- and mid-price condominiums. Under the new rules a typical couple earning $100,000 a year would qualify for $450,000 in financing, compared with a $600,000 mortgage when longer amortizations and easier qualifications were allowed, one realtor estimated.

How about them vacancy rates eh?

The following chart shows that Vancouver vacancy rates are surging in 2013, particularly the one and two bedroom units. In some areas vacancies in those segments have more than doubled!

http://1401comox.files.wordpress.com/20 ... er-p15.jpg

Then of course, we have all those pesky unoccupied condos. I know you don't trust census numbers when they undermine your arguments so lets look at another way of measuring them. Yan came up with the novel idea of analyzing hydro use of average homes and suggests that if little is being used then perhaps the unit is unoccupied. This tends to uncover those units which are reported as occupied (for MSP or residency requirement reasons) but which are actually unoccupied.

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/real-e ... eal-estate
Foreign investment in real estate market resulting in empty condos
Mar 21st, 2013

Next, Yan discusses the “empty condo” phenomenon, using findings from his analysis of BC Hydro data. According to BC Hydro, an average occupied unit uses about 400 kilowatt hours per month. Setting the bar at 75 kilowatt hours (or the amount of energy used by your average refrigerator), Yan found that about 5.5% of the units in his study were possibly empty. At 100 kilowatt hours, the number jumped to 8.5% – and at 150, 17% of the units in Yan’s study were possibly empty.

 Yan’s most striking number, however, comes from one of the swankiest corners of downtown real-estate. In Coal Harbour, he says, the 2011 Census finds that between 20.1% and 23% of condos are non-resident occupied. AKA, empty. 
How about the new stuff being built and poised to flood an already dying market?

http://blog.besthomesbc.com/2012/06/26/ ... -downtown/
Look around the skyline and you’ll see it dotted by cranes, and everywhere there seems to be another hole in the ground making way for another apartment building.

Sixteen condo towers are under construction, according to a database by Skyscraperpage.com and another 67 proposed high-rises are in the works.

Amid newly-tightened mortgage rules and concerns of an over-supply in the Toronto condo market that prompted financial authorities including Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney to sound an alarm this week, we think we’ve earned the right to ask: Is Vancouver oversaturated with condos?

Housing starts in Vancouver are up in the first five months of 2012 compared to the same period last year, driven largely by multiple-unit dwelling construction – which is up by about 50 per cent from last year.
June 2012
Take a look for yourself at the condos currently under construction in Vancouver.

UNDER CONSTRUCTION

1) Wall Centre False Creek I, II, III, IV

100 W. 1st Avenue
556 units in four towers
Completion: Early to mid-2014
2) Maynards

1901 Wylie Street
253 units
Completion: Fall 2012
3) James Living

289 W. 2nd Avenue
155 units
Completion: August 2012
4) The Mark

1372 Seymour Street (at Pacific Boulevard)
300 units
At 41 storeys, it is billed as the tallest tower in Yaletown
Completion: Summer 2013
5) Salt

1308 Hornby Street
199 units
Completion: June 2014
6) Cosmo

161 W. Georgia Street
253 units
Status: Move-in ready
7) The Rolston

1300 Granville Street (site of the old Cecil Hotel)
187 units
Completion: June 2013
8) Maddox

1304 Howe Street
214 units
Completion: December 2013
9) Uptown

2788 Prince Edward
100 units
Completion: Fall 2012
10) TELUS Garden

775 Richards Street
428 units in a 53-storey tower, which will be the second-tallest in the city after the Shangri-La
Completion: 2015
11) Marine Gateway

8400 Cambie Street
415 units in two towers
Completion: 2015
12) 1153 West Georgia Formerly the Ritz Carlton

290 units (but should be confirmed independently, based on CBC report)
Completion: XXX
13) Wall Centre Central Park Boundary Road and Vanness Avenue

1,114 units in three towers
Status: Rezoning application approved. Completion date: XX
TOTAL: 4,464
PROPOSED

14) Rize Mount Pleasant

Kingsway and Broadway
241 units
Status: Rezoning proposal approved by city council in April. If approved, completion date of XX.
15) Burrard Gateway

1290 Burrard Street (and 1281 Hornby Street)
About 589 units in two towers
Status: Proposed, awaiting rezoning approval. If approved, completion date of 2015 to 2016
In summary, I find myself agreeing with Jimtan's findings, if we completely ignore all the events of the last eighteen months the outlook for Vancouver real estate is all unicorns and rainbows!

It's only when we look at what has been happening since March of 2012 that things start to look bleak - but who wants to do that? Certainly not Jimbo! :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
jimtan
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Sun Jun 02, 2013 7:29 pm

Nice job of cut and paste. Must have taken a lot of time.

Do note that the Urban Futures apartment vacancy rate is in line with the CMHC rental vacancy rate (2012). Allowing for structural vacancy of 2%-4% (pied-a-terre, second home, job out of town etc).

http://www.realestatetalks.com/viewtopi ... 8&t=128259

Note the correlation between the vacancy rate in Richmond (5.3%) and Surrey (9.2%) in terms of RE performance.
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Waldo
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Mon Jun 03, 2013 6:14 am

"Geyser"

In summary, I find myself agreeing with Jimtan's findings, if we completely ignore all the events of the last eighteen months the outlook for Vancouver real estate is all unicorns and rainbows!

It's only when we look at what has been happening since March of 2012 that things start to look bleak - but who wants to do that? Certainly not Jimbo! :lol:
with all due respect Geyser, you need to find a better definition for the word Bleak. If you ask homeowners in many US markets 2008-2012 what bleak looks like I think you'll find that Vancouver was still unicorns and rainbows since Manrch 2012
 
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Mon Jun 03, 2013 6:53 am

Meanwhile, this graph from Urban Futures illustrates the difference between Vancouver and Windsor.
Did they also explain why buyers in a city with a higher median wage than Vancouver and where a nice house can be had for $150K would choose an apartment?
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Re: Canadians eager to buy!!!!

Mon Jun 03, 2013 6:55 am

Notice the subtle difference in definition. I've highlighted the pertinent bit as a public service.
Subtle deserves scare quotes, that's one hell of a map.
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