Despite being repeatedly corrected on this point you continue to lie about my past predictions on this forum. Once again you make it neccessarry to re-post some of my old cautionary comments about the volatility of our market. I cut and pasted several of them and posted them on our "Arguments" thread, here is that entire post - again!Whatever - you lie to this forum on a regular basis. Its people like you that encouraged people who couldnt afford real estate to make the worst mistake of their lives.
Those peoples lives are now ruined. Remember "What if somebody listens to Taipan and doesnt buy?"
You avoid some very simple questions which makes you a total hypocrite.
Call me all the names you like, because deep down you a very nasty piece of work and sooner or later that lifetime of nastiness to people throughout your life will catch up with you
So there, once again, is the truth of the matter. While Taipan was busy calling for an imminent 50% price collapse, I was cautiously talking about future corrections but suggesting that it was "highly unlikely in the next year or so". I was right and Taipan (with his associate diploma) was dead wrong, he didn't even get the market direction right as he advised people to avoid the biggest short-term price run up in Vancouver's history. Our SFH market, which he describes as "microscopic cherry picking" went up by 61%.Geezer, Taipan disagreements posted here
by Geyser » Mon Jun 11, 2012 6:00 pm
In response to Taipan's constant claims that I am a permabull let's look at what I actually posted years ago.
Hmmm, not bad! Obviously a lot more knowledgable about market trends than Taipan.
By geezer on Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:45 pm
I agree with you but a number of posters here seem to think that if the market has another correction (like last winter?) there will be a rush for the exits and supply will shoot up at a never before seen rate. It could happen but I find it highly unlikely, at least in the next year or two, by which time the median price could be significantly higher than today.
Here are some more of my "rabid bull" declarations from way back in 2007 when I was supposedly wildly pumping the market because of my fear of a drop. If all the bulls are like me the market is clearly doomed.
Geezer July 31st. 2007
Firstly let me point out that I am not a real bull in as much as I accept the possibility of a slowdown or reversal of prices at some point in the future. I do not subscribe to the notion that prices can only go up.Geezer, Aug 12th. 2007
Prices can and do move in both directions, sometimes wildly.
Where is our current market heading? I don't know and neither does anybody else.
We can all say with some certainty that it will turn down at some point but this may or may not translate into a significant price drop.
I have a number of reasons to doubt that another very long or severe downturn is likely in the near future but I know I might be wrong and I would not be so bold as to say it can't happen.
See the teranet index measures the changes in value across the entire market of Vancouver (not some micro sector), and across all the major urban markets in Canada.
Im surprised you havent heard of it.
And what was the change for Vancouver using the main index (recognised across all of Canada) between June 2008 and when it topped? Just 15%.
So Snakey, if you really didn't know that our SFH prices shot up 61% immediately after you advised people that a 50% drop was imminent, it was probably because you didn't look at reliable numbers. Yet you still expect less informed people to take you seriously? Really?The Mouldy City is abuzz with ‘secret’ internal housing numbers from the Vancouver Real Estate Board which do two things: (a) give irrefutable proof the realtors’ frankenumber is misleading consumers and (b) show there’s a US-style HouseAgeddon in full flower in Richmond – that burb where Asian money was supposed to make everyone a millionaire. The leak started here and spread here and now it might as well be here.
In the Terra Nova hood the average sales price in the past year has declined 38%, while the median price has travelled from $1.388 million to $688,000. That’s a drop of 50.4%. In the Riverdale area, the average price is off 27.5% and the median lower by 28%. And over in Seafair, the average price is down 34% and the median by 25%.
These are numbers you’d expect crawling out of Vegas or Youngstown in 2006. But what has the real estate cartel announced to homebuyers and sellers? The Frankenumber for Terra Nova, where houses are now selling for half off, is a decline of just 4.6%. For Riverdale it’s -9% and for Seafair -15%.
Kinda makes you wonder about the veracity of the latest media release from the board: “Since reaching a peak in May of $625,100, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver has declined 5.6 per cent to $590,400. This represents a 3.3 per cent decline compared to this time last year.”
Clearly the Home Price Index is not intended to give an accurate view of current pricing or reflect market momentum – critical to an informed home-buying decision. Instead it’s there to mask those swings, obfuscate reality and create an ‘it’s-always-a-good-time-to-buy’ mentality. So, it’s about helping realtors sell houses, not helping citizens know when to buy them.
In fact it takes the cartel twenty-five pages to explain it.
So if prices did rise by 61% (on top of the fact that you were already in a bubble), why didnt you sell?Garth Turner: In the Terra Nova hood the average sales price in the past year has declined 38%, while the median price has travelled from $1.388 million to $688,000. That’s a drop of 50.4%. In the Riverdale area, the average price is off 27.5% and the median lower by 28%. And over in Seafair, the average price is down 34% and the median by 25%.
So Snakey, if you really didn't know that our SFH prices shot up 61% immediately after you advised people that a 50% drop was imminent, it was probably because you didn't look at reliable numbers. Yet you still expect less informed people to take you seriously? Really?
Fact: Vancouver average SFH prices, trough to peak 2009-2012I don’t accept your 60% increase in fsh across Vancouver B/S,
Firstly, I have never stated that I own anything other than a rusty old van down by the river but, as I have previously explained, if an investor has a long term vision he might well decide to ignore the vagaries of the resale market with all it's inherent risks and instead focus on steady, reliable, long-term growth of income.So if prices did rise by 61% (on top of the fact that you were already in a bubble), why didnt you sell?
Maintaining the status quo and having a powerful money making machine sounds reasonable to me. Perhaps that explains why most of the major apartment rental companies didn't dump their holdings, or are they all dumb amateurs too?The fact that you couldnt or wouldnt sell your rental properties, shows your an amateur.
I'm not sure it would ever be worth pulling out of a long-term investment which had made our imaginary investor financially secure and continued to provide rich monthly rewards, which probably explains why so many of the big boys are still in the market. But I respect the fact that you don't think like them. BTW, your vaunted Teranet HPI is only down By 1.5%, where did you get your 50% drop from, was it just another one of your wet dreams?Secondly if they have fallen 50% in the last year, that is a market that is screaming down so fast that it wont be pulling out anytime soon.
So you still think you were smart to urge people to sell immediately prior to our market going on a multi-year upward price movement the like of which is rarely seen. Maybe that associate diploma course wasn't as good as you pretend. The idea is to catch the wild upward swings, not avoid them. I suggest you re-read the lesson they sent you about that small but important detail.To make an informed comment you would need to understand valuation, not prices and to you have to have been a seller against the mania in the REBGV area in the last 4 years.
You really don't read what I post do you? Go back and look at my old statements and show me where I urged people to buy. I always said a correction was inevitable and I also stated that corrections can be extreme.Between 2008 - and 2011 you urged people to keep buying.
Taipan:Geyser: June 8th, 2012
FWIW, unlike when you first joined the yapping terriers of gloom and doom, conditions have changed, we are now much closer to the next inevitable correction and it could easily be a big one.
Geyser: July 4th. 2012
I do believe that a few years after the coming blowout the market will reset for another good money making opportunity, I just don't expect to be here to see it because, although we may plunge back to the long term fundamentals fairly quickly, I think the trauma of lost wealth and lost confidence and will be very long lasting and will inhibit recovery for many years.
According to Teranet HPI Vancouver's % change Feb. y/y was -1.53%. So make up your mind, do you believe Teranet or do you think it's a market which has been crashing for 12 months?The fact you now come in here pretending your all knowledgeable 12 months after the market started crashing makes you as useful as an ashtray on a motor bike.
No, take another look at my old statements (below). I agree with the importance of the 12-18 month window, pity you completely failed to predict that major market move between 2009 and 2012! Unfortunately you were at least 4 years premature with your wildly inaccurate market call and all these years later we still don't know for sure if it will ever happen.Useful information in property you need to know 12 - 18 months before major market moves, so you can get in and buy or sell. No point telling people after the fact like you do.
While you were calling for that 50% crash I was saying this:Geezer July 31st. 2007
Firstly let me point out that I am not a real bull in as much as I accept the possibility of a slowdown or reversal of prices at some point in the future. I do not subscribe to the notion that prices can only go up.
Geezer, Aug 12th. 2007
Prices can and do move in both directions, sometimes wildly.
Wow Snakey! That last comment of mine was made the same time you were telling everybody to dump their real estate - right before three continuous years of big price increases.By geezer on Tue Jan 29, 2008 (that's 5 years ago!)
It could happen but I find it highly unlikely, at least in the next year or two, by which time the median price could be significantly higher than today.
Ah yes, the Teranet Index which supports your claim of a "12 month crashing market" with a total drop of 1.5%. over the year. Little wonder you missed the huge (61%) 3 year run up.Next time get your index's right and get a better chart then ripleys believe it or not.
Once again, read my comment from the past. I have always recognized the possibility of major corrections and have clearly and repeatedly stated so on this forum.Oh BTW - seeing you referenced Ripleys believe it or not - care to share with the forum, where Ripley thinks prices will fall to?
You are probably the most abusive individual to ever pollute this forum, have you already forgotten the multitude of racist insults which you posted and which I later documented? I won't even get into your rampant mysogyny and homophobia.And youve certainly hurled more abuse at me, then ive returned, even to the point of attacking my wife and family.