This is a friendly, interactive exchange of information on all Real Estate related subjects. Follow on Twitter: @RETALKS


Moderator: admin

 
Taipan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3574
Joined: Fri May 30, 2008 11:24 pm
Contact:

Re: What is the replacement cost of Vancouver condo?

Sun Mar 17, 2013 12:46 pm

Whatever - you lie to this forum on a regular basis. Its people like you that encouraged people who couldnt afford real estate to make the worst mistake of their lives.

Those peoples lives are now ruined. Remember "What if somebody listens to Taipan and doesnt buy?"

You avoid some very simple questions which makes you a total hypocrite.

Call me all the names you like, because deep down you a very nasty piece of work and sooner or later that lifetime of nastiness to people throughout your life will catch up with you
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: What is the replacement cost of Vancouver condo?

Mon Mar 18, 2013 12:48 pm

Whatever - you lie to this forum on a regular basis. Its people like you that encouraged people who couldnt afford real estate to make the worst mistake of their lives.

Those peoples lives are now ruined. Remember "What if somebody listens to Taipan and doesnt buy?"

You avoid some very simple questions which makes you a total hypocrite.

Call me all the names you like, because deep down you a very nasty piece of work and sooner or later that lifetime of nastiness to people throughout your life will catch up with you
Despite being repeatedly corrected on this point you continue to lie about my past predictions on this forum. Once again you make it neccessarry to re-post some of my old cautionary comments about the volatility of our market. I cut and pasted several of them and posted them on our "Arguments" thread, here is that entire post - again!
Geezer, Taipan disagreements posted here
by Geyser » Mon Jun 11, 2012 6:00 pm

In response to Taipan's constant claims that I am a permabull let's look at what I actually posted years ago.

Hmmm, not bad! Obviously a lot more knowledgable about market trends than Taipan.
By geezer on Tue Jan 29, 2008 3:45 pm
I agree with you but a number of posters here seem to think that if the market has another correction (like last winter?) there will be a rush for the exits and supply will shoot up at a never before seen rate. It could happen but I find it highly unlikely, at least in the next year or two, by which time the median price could be significantly higher than today.

Here are some more of my "rabid bull" declarations from way back in 2007 when I was supposedly wildly pumping the market because of my fear of a drop. If all the bulls are like me the market is clearly doomed.
Geezer July 31st. 2007
Firstly let me point out that I am not a real bull in as much as I accept the possibility of a slowdown or reversal of prices at some point in the future. I do not subscribe to the notion that prices can only go up.
Geezer, Aug 12th. 2007
Prices can and do move in both directions, sometimes wildly.

Where is our current market heading? I don't know and neither does anybody else.

We can all say with some certainty that it will turn down at some point but this may or may not translate into a significant price drop.

I have a number of reasons to doubt that another very long or severe downturn is likely in the near future but I know I might be wrong and I would not be so bold as to say it can't happen.
So there, once again, is the truth of the matter. While Taipan was busy calling for an imminent 50% price collapse, I was cautiously talking about future corrections but suggesting that it was "highly unlikely in the next year or so". I was right and Taipan (with his associate diploma) was dead wrong, he didn't even get the market direction right as he advised people to avoid the biggest short-term price run up in Vancouver's history. Our SFH market, which he describes as "microscopic cherry picking" went up by 61%.

Anybody who arrived late to this party and is unaware of Taipan's record of proven lies and vile racist behaviour might wish to go to the "Geezer, Taipan disagreements posted here" thread and look at page eight. This odious and deceitful individual is not to be trusted and is certainly not worthy of any respect.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
HAM
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 836
Joined: Sun Feb 12, 2012 1:21 pm
Contact:

Re: What is the replacement cost of Vancouver condo?

Mon Mar 18, 2013 1:09 pm

Geyser,

Nice post.

We both think alike but really dislike different idiots. You've been right before with a bold call, I think you'll be right again this time around. 8)
So jimmy said I missed the dip in Richmond last year. And now prices have fallen even more with no balance in sight! The poor old man is just too old and grumpy!
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: What is the replacement cost of Vancouver condo?

Mon Mar 18, 2013 5:49 pm

Thank you HAM.

I don't think I'm particularly bold because I've always admitted that I'm making nothing more than an educated guess based on statistics, trends, personal experience and chat around the water cooler. That last part of the equation has often been a fairly accurate predictor of the herd mentality which can be an important driver, whether the market is going up or going down.

What some folks overlooked during this bubble was the fact that bubbles can often continue inflating long after the less informed observers have called for an imminent and massive collapse. Right now I think there may be enough negative sentiment to push us to the tipping point where unrealistic enthusiasm turns into massive pessimism and the bubble pops. It looks like it may have already started and if that is the case, look out below.

I still wouldn't totally rule out one last gasp of price gains but I'd be very surprised if such an event lasted more than a couple of months.

Just for the record, I remain a long-term bull on Vancouver real estate, but I don't know if "long -term" is going to be a few years or a couple of decades and I'm not dumb enough to make short-term forecasts in absolute terms. We've already seen another poster get egg all over his face by presenting his hopelessly inaccurate forecasts with the heady air of arrogance and certainty which comes so naturally to the holder of a coveted, mail-order, associate diploma in property valuation.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: What is the replacement cost of Vancouver condo?

Wed Mar 20, 2013 7:46 pm

Just a quick follow-up on Taipan's irrefutable source of all knowledge about Vancouver real estate prices. Earlier in this thread he went on about our SFH market being a "micro sector" and he lauded the HPI as the font of all wisdom whilst ridiculing me for trusting the actual average price records. He used the Terenet HPI number to deny the reality that he missed a 61% run-up in our SFH prices whilst busily calling for a 50% collapse.

Taipan:
Taipan:
See the teranet index measures the changes in value across the entire market of Vancouver (not some micro sector), and across all the major urban markets in Canada.

Im surprised you havent heard of it.

And what was the change for Vancouver using the main index (recognised across all of Canada) between June 2008 and when it topped? Just 15%.

Well, today one of Taipan's heroes shone a big bright light on the HPI and explained (in terms which even Taipan should be able to understand) why it's worthless and deceptive, which is probably why Taipan embraced it.

Garth Turner @ greaterfool.com:
The Mouldy City is abuzz with ‘secret’ internal housing numbers from the Vancouver Real Estate Board which do two things: (a) give irrefutable proof the realtors’ frankenumber is misleading consumers and (b) show there’s a US-style HouseAgeddon in full flower in Richmond – that burb where Asian money was supposed to make everyone a millionaire. The leak started here and spread here and now it might as well be here.

In the Terra Nova hood the average sales price in the past year has declined 38%, while the median price has travelled from $1.388 million to $688,000. That’s a drop of 50.4%. In the Riverdale area, the average price is off 27.5% and the median lower by 28%. And over in Seafair, the average price is down 34% and the median by 25%.

These are numbers you’d expect crawling out of Vegas or Youngstown in 2006. But what has the real estate cartel announced to homebuyers and sellers? The Frankenumber for Terra Nova, where houses are now selling for half off, is a decline of just 4.6%. For Riverdale it’s -9% and for Seafair -15%.

Kinda makes you wonder about the veracity of the latest media release from the board: “Since reaching a peak in May of $625,100, the MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Greater Vancouver has declined 5.6 per cent to $590,400. This represents a 3.3 per cent decline compared to this time last year.”

Clearly the Home Price Index is not intended to give an accurate view of current pricing or reflect market momentum – critical to an informed home-buying decision. Instead it’s there to mask those swings, obfuscate reality and create an ‘it’s-always-a-good-time-to-buy’ mentality. So, it’s about helping realtors sell houses, not helping citizens know when to buy them.

In fact it takes the cartel twenty-five pages to explain it.
So Snakey, if you really didn't know that our SFH prices shot up 61% immediately after you advised people that a 50% drop was imminent, it was probably because you didn't look at reliable numbers. Yet you still expect less informed people to take you seriously? Really? :shock:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Taipan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3574
Joined: Fri May 30, 2008 11:24 pm
Contact:

Re: What is the replacement cost of Vancouver condo?

Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:46 am

Do you understand what you just posted? I doubt it. Youve just kicked an own goal!

From June 2008 I said you had a bubble which would crash. It did, to be reinflated by the Government and Bank of Canada, climbing just 15% above my original prediction on emergency pumping of the bubble. Since early last year the market has been falling.

I only ever used one Index. That is the Teranet House Price Index It uses the case shiller methodology of price changes. As far away from the real estate board as you can find. The Case shiller method is the one used in the USA.

Now what you are referring to is the MLS Home Price Index, created by the real estate board of greater Vancouver. That is also what Garth Turner was referring to.

You in your delusional ramblings headed off to Ripleys believe it or not.

Now mine is the nationally recognised index, the second is the one referred to by Garth Turner and dodgied up by the REBGV, and the one you refer to is goodness knows what.

But seeing youve referenced Garth, and you reference ripleys believe it or not, ill just repeat this.
Garth Turner: In the Terra Nova hood the average sales price in the past year has declined 38%, while the median price has travelled from $1.388 million to $688,000. That’s a drop of 50.4%. In the Riverdale area, the average price is off 27.5% and the median lower by 28%. And over in Seafair, the average price is down 34% and the median by 25%.

So Snakey, if you really didn't know that our SFH prices shot up 61% immediately after you advised people that a 50% drop was imminent, it was probably because you didn't look at reliable numbers. Yet you still expect less informed people to take you seriously? Really? :shock:
So if prices did rise by 61% (on top of the fact that you were already in a bubble), why didnt you sell?

Secondly if they have fallen 50% in the last year, that is a market that is screaming down so fast that it wont be pulling out anytime soon.

To make an informed comment you would need to understand valuation, not prices and to you have to have been a seller against the mania in the REBGV area in the last 4 years. Between 2008 - and 2011 you urged people to keep buying. Big mistake. What if people had listened to you only to see the value of their new property fall 50% in under a year, and continue to fall!

The fact that you couldnt or wouldnt sell your rental properties, shows your an amateur.

The fact you now come in here pretending your all knowledgeable 12 months after the market started crashing makes you as useful as an ashtray on a motor bike.

Useful information in property you need to know 12 - 18 months before major market moves, so you can get in and buy or sell. No point telling people after the fact like you do.

Next time get your index's right and get a better chart then ripleys believe it or not. Oh BTW - seeing you referenced Ripleys believe it or not - care to share with the forum, where Ripley thinks prices will fall to?

Ill just remind the forum, that I have repeated many times, my belief that value will be found at 2005/2006 prices. Like I benched marked with my purchase last year at 2005/2006 prices up in SP!
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: What is the replacement cost of Vancouver condo?

Thu Mar 21, 2013 2:08 pm

Anybody who is tired of these endlessly repetitive exchanges with Taipan should skip to the last paragraph which ends this post.

Taipan:
I don’t accept your 60% increase in fsh across Vancouver B/S,
Fact: Vancouver average SFH prices, trough to peak 2009-2012  
$740k - $1,235k, do the math!

It's not my increase, it's what the simple math shows when you do the calculation, but hey forget Vancouver's SFH market, after all you think it's microscopic cherry picking. Let's just look at the 50% overall market gain as quoted by the Royal Bank and the CREA. Do you dismiss them too? Or do you think advising people to miss a 50% (unleveraged) increase is inconsequential too? 

Taipan:
So if prices did rise by 61% (on top of the fact that you were already in a bubble), why didnt you sell?
Firstly, I have never stated that I own anything other than a rusty old van down by the river but, as I have previously explained, if an investor has a long term vision he might well decide to ignore the vagaries of the resale market with all it's inherent risks and instead focus on steady, reliable, long-term growth of income.

Conversely, if the owner was an obnoxious, short sighted, opportunistic money grubber, he might be dazzled by the prospect of a one-time capital gain which the taxman would happily share. He might then rush out and buy "a shit load" of gold, a very high risk gamble which provides zero income. 

Taipan:
The fact that you couldnt or wouldnt sell your rental properties, shows your an amateur.
Maintaining the status quo and having a powerful money making machine sounds reasonable to me. Perhaps that explains why most of the major apartment rental companies didn't dump their holdings, or are they all dumb amateurs too?

Taipan:
Secondly if they have fallen 50% in the last year, that is a market that is screaming down so fast that it wont be pulling out anytime soon.
I'm not sure it would ever be worth pulling out of a long-term investment which had made our imaginary investor financially secure and continued to provide rich monthly rewards, which probably explains why so many of the big boys are still in the market. But I respect the fact that you don't think like them. BTW, your vaunted Teranet HPI is only down By 1.5%, where did you get your 50% drop from, was it just another one of your wet dreams?

Taipan:
To make an informed comment you would need to understand valuation, not prices and to you have to have been a seller against the mania in the REBGV area in the last 4 years.
So you still think you were smart to urge people to sell immediately prior to our market going on a multi-year upward price movement the like of which is rarely seen. Maybe that associate diploma course wasn't as good as you pretend. The idea is to catch the wild upward swings, not avoid them. I suggest you re-read the lesson they sent you about that small but important detail.

Taipan:
Between 2008 - and 2011 you urged people to keep buying.
You really don't read what I post do you? Go back and look at my old statements and show me where I urged people to buy. I always said a correction was inevitable and I also stated that corrections can be extreme. 

When you were busy declaring the beginning of a 50% collapse and urging people to sell I was saying that I didn't expect a correction "just yet", but by the first half of last year I was increasingly sounding off about the gathering storm clouds. In June 2012 there was still plenty of time for many speculators to price well and walk away with handsome profits (and some still could - ask ETB) 

So what was I actually saying back then? Scroll down and see some of my old statements. A couple of my more recent ones are here:
Geyser: June 8th, 2012
FWIW, unlike when you first joined the yapping terriers of gloom and doom, conditions have changed, we are now much closer to the next inevitable correction and it could easily be a big one.

Geyser: July 4th. 2012
I do believe that a few years after the coming blowout the market will reset for another good money making opportunity, I just don't expect to be here to see it because, although we may plunge back to the long term fundamentals fairly quickly, I think the trauma of lost wealth and lost confidence and will be very long lasting and will inhibit recovery for many years.
Taipan:
The fact you now come in here pretending your all knowledgeable 12 months after the market started crashing makes you as useful as an ashtray on a motor bike.
According to Teranet HPI Vancouver's % change Feb. y/y was -1.53%. So make up your mind, do you believe Teranet or do you think it's a market which has been crashing for 12 months?

Taipan:
Useful information in property you need to know 12 - 18 months before major market moves, so you can get in and buy or sell. No point telling people after the fact like you do.
No, take another look at my old statements (below).  I agree with the importance of the 12-18 month window, pity you completely failed to predict that major market move between 2009 and 2012!  Unfortunately you were at least 4 years premature with your wildly inaccurate market call and all these years later we still don't know for sure if it will ever happen.

You just explained why you need to get out of the real estate business, unless you can get somebody smarter to do your forecasting. Perhaps you know somebody who has a full mail-order diploma rather than just the "also ran" associate version. They may be able to get you within in that 12-18 month window which we agree is so vital.

Here are a couple of my old statements - again! Try and remember them this time.
Geezer July 31st. 2007
Firstly let me point out that I am not a real bull in as much as I accept the possibility of a slowdown or reversal of prices at some point in the future. I do not subscribe to the notion that prices can only go up.

Geezer, Aug 12th. 2007
Prices can and do move in both directions, sometimes wildly.
While you were calling for that 50% crash I was saying this:
By geezer on Tue Jan 29, 2008 (that's 5 years ago!)
It could happen but I find it highly unlikely, at least in the next year or two, by which time the median price could be significantly higher than today.
Wow Snakey! That last comment of mine was made the same time you were telling everybody to dump their real estate - right before three continuous years of big price increases.

You know how important that 12-18 month forecast is but now you tell everybody that you were right and I "know zhit". What a transparently deceitful ass you really are!

Taipan:
Next time get your index's right and get a better chart then ripleys believe it or not.
Ah yes, the Teranet Index which supports your claim of a "12 month crashing market" with a total drop of 1.5%. over the year. Little wonder you missed the huge (61%) 3 year run up.

I also referenced the RBC report and the CREA numbers but you choose  to ignore those.

Taipan:
Oh BTW - seeing you referenced Ripleys believe it or not - care to share with the forum, where Ripley thinks prices will fall to?
Once again, read my comment from the past. I have always recognized the possibility of major corrections and have clearly and repeatedly stated so on this forum.

For god's sake Snakey, what is wrong with your memory? I know you thought you had adequately explained your post graduate illiteracy when you said you forgot how to spell after you graduated from university, but now you're getting even more ridiculous!

Snakey, you've been buried before and you've just been buried again. What are you, some kind of zombie or are you just a glutton for punishment?

Anyway, keep it coming and I'll keep burying you. Once again I will request that you post your arguments on our dedicated "arguments" thread. You keep repeating your discredited positions and force me to repeat my rebuttals.

I'm sure that numerous disinterested readers will not read your rants and my responses over on the "arguments" thread and that might save you from further humiliation. Unfortunately, I am sure you will once again ignore the request.

I apologize to others for all the repetition but, while he ignores my rebuttals and restates the same discredited arguments, I refuse to feed his frail but enormous ego by allowing him the delusion that he has made any valid points. Perhaps some of you can help persuade him to move to the "arguments" thread where I can continue to humiliate him with less impact on other threads.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Taipan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3574
Joined: Fri May 30, 2008 11:24 pm
Contact:

Re: What is the replacement cost of Vancouver condo?

Thu Mar 21, 2013 3:03 pm

I know I skipped to the last paragraph and didnt bother reading it. Your really are so full of yourself.

You totally ignored the fact that you had been completely caught out not understanding the different indexes.

Your like an ice hockey captain who as the ice puck is dropped on the ice declares.

I win - but not only do I win, how could anybody imagine that they would win!

The puck goes up the ice, across the ice, down the ice, back up. I DONT KNOW HOW, BUT I KNOW I WIN.

Just because you say you win, doesnt mean that you do win. Just because you hurl abuse at the other side, doesnt make your abuse true.

And youve certainly hurled more abuse at me, then ive returned, even to the point of attacking my wife and family.

Just like your comments about real estate markets. Markets go up markets down, markets go left markets go right.

Absolutely useless. Oh thanks for wasting all that time - it saved somebody else on this planet having to listen to you.
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: What is the replacement cost of Vancouver condo?

Thu Mar 21, 2013 4:51 pm

Hey Snakey, remain in denial if you wish but you might not look quite so dumb if you actually bothered to read that last post of mine. Most of your deluded versions of history are addressed there along with the undeniable evidence that I got it right and you were hopelessly wrong.

If anybody ever had any doubt about that all they have to do is see what we have actually been saying over the last few years. Not only does it prove you wrong it also shines a big bright light on your pathological lying.

Over and out loser! :lol:
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: What is the replacement cost of Vancouver condo?

Thu Mar 21, 2013 10:23 pm

Hey dipstick, a couple of other points. (BTW, "dipstick" is a term you initiated)
And youve certainly hurled more abuse at me, then ive returned, even to the point of attacking my wife and family.
You are probably the most abusive individual to ever pollute this forum, have you already forgotten the multitude of racist insults which you posted and which I later documented? I won't even get into your rampant mysogyny and homophobia.

I'm curious, in the quote above you say that you "then returned, even to the point of attacking my wife and family."

Did you really attack your wife and family? I certainly didn't want you to vent your obvious and understandable frustration on innocent people whom I pity for having to tolerate you. Could it be that you were you simply struggling, in your own inimitably dyslexic way, to say that I was guilty of such behaviour? If you were accusing me of attacking them please give a single example.

As previously indicated, I will not allow your increasingly frequent and bizarre rewriting of history to go unchallenged. I have no beef with your family, it is only you who attracts my ongoing contempt - for obvious reasons.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests