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semven
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Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:37 am

Be honest....
I get the feeling that prices were stickier than most Bears predicted, and with interest rates looking relatively flat, the Winter drawing to a close, and the month of February behind us (with 2 less business days than last Feb)
Thoughts?
 
HAM
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 9:51 am

Be honest....
I get the feeling that prices were stickier than most Bears predicted, and with interest rates looking relatively flat, the Winter drawing to a close, and the month of February behind us (with 2 less business days than last Feb)
Thoughts?
Sticky? I'm guessing u don't own in Richmond or Van west where prices are off 10%+ and people are selling at a loss. The only thing sticky are your eyelids, go back to sleep.

FYI, where are sales at eh?
So jimmy said I missed the dip in Richmond last year. And now prices have fallen even more with no balance in sight! The poor old man is just too old and grumpy!
 
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Warren12
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:02 am

Real estate is always slow to move.. but it's a slow bus to turn around once it's heading in a particular direction. I give it until the end of 2014 to see a bottom. A few years of ~10-15% losses from where we are today.
 
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semven
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:08 am

Be honest....
I get the feeling that prices were stickier than most Bears predicted, and with interest rates looking relatively flat, the Winter drawing to a close, and the month of February behind us (with 2 less business days than last Feb)
Thoughts?
Sticky? I'm guessing u don't own in Richmond or Van west where prices are off 10%+ and people are selling at a loss. The only thing sticky are your eyelids, go back to sleep.

FYI, where are sales at eh?
Im guessing you have Alzheimers since you have already forgotten % drop/ time frame that some were throwing around last Summer/Fall
 
HAM
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:24 am

Vancouver sales yoy change.

Sfh -35%
Attached -21%
Condo -25%

Isn't this the season where sales pick up? And last year wasn't a good year and we are now slower than last year. Lets see how sticky we will be in the coming months.
So jimmy said I missed the dip in Richmond last year. And now prices have fallen even more with no balance in sight! The poor old man is just too old and grumpy!
 
HAM
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:27 am

Be honest....
I get the feeling that prices were stickier than most Bears predicted, and with interest rates looking relatively flat, the Winter drawing to a close, and the month of February behind us (with 2 less business days than last Feb)
Thoughts?
Sticky? I'm guessing u don't own in Richmond or Van west where prices are off 10%+ and people are selling at a loss. The only thing sticky are your eyelids, go back to sleep.

FYI, where are sales at eh?
Im guessing you have Alzheimers since you have already forgotten % drop/ time frame that some were throwing around last Summer/Fall
You're blinded by not being able to see sales stats. Too bad for you for being a regular joe.
So jimmy said I missed the dip in Richmond last year. And now prices have fallen even more with no balance in sight! The poor old man is just too old and grumpy!
 
gse36
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:53 am

richmond:

3531 trumond 1300k sold dec 2010
3311 trumond ASKING 938k (was as high as 1188 before asking in 2011)

true example of catching a falling knife. he coulda got 1100 or so easily if he priced right to begin with.

but its okay. they paid like 200k for it many many years ago. they have lots of room to fall

both land value (3531 has been torn down since and rebuilt).
 
HAM
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:16 am

richmond:

3531 trumond 1300k sold dec 2010
3311 trumond ASKING 938k (was as high as 1188 before asking in 2011)

true example of catching a falling knife. he coulda got 1100 or so easily if he priced right to begin with.

but its okay. they paid like 200k for it many many years ago. they have lots of room to fall

both land value (3531 has been torn down since and rebuilt).
Thanks gse,

Even though I post the ugliness in Richmond, semven and jimtan continue to chirp away like idiots. Many people still don't realize the market is what it is because they are simply lied to. Why don't you see these on global or CTV? Because if u did, things would get ugly really fast.

There you go jimtroll, keep telling yourself I fucked up by waiting to buy in Richmond. You look even more stupid now :mrgreen:
So jimmy said I missed the dip in Richmond last year. And now prices have fallen even more with no balance in sight! The poor old man is just too old and grumpy!
 
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:32 am

Be honest....
I get the feeling that prices were stickier than most Bears predicted, and with interest rates looking relatively flat, the Winter drawing to a close, and the month of February behind us (with 2 less business days than last Feb)
Thoughts?
I thought Jesse nailed the price movement last year, it's pretty much as expected. It took years to be where we are, might take years to be where we're supposed to be. I think it feels slow because we're used to seeing stock/commodity market move rapidly. I'm not in the market to buy/sell so it feels slow to me, But if you're in the market to sell, I bet you feel the ground under your feet is moving too fast, especially if you're underwater.
I'd be surprised if we drop more than 10% this year with the exception of Richmond and Van West. I think what happens in Richmond this year will unfold in Burnaby, North Van, etc next year.
It's the look of surprise when Joes see their yearly assessment number get corrected significantly that will drive the market bonker. It's the mass realization that price aren't relatively flat. Richmond had it this year. Burnaby etc will have it January 2014.
 
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semven
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 1:01 pm

semven and jimtan continue to chirp away like idiots.
nice...Dont like the topic Douche?
 
HAM
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 1:20 pm

semven and jimtan continue to chirp away like idiots.
nice...Dont like the topic Douche?
I love it! Its just proof that will embarrass you.
So jimmy said I missed the dip in Richmond last year. And now prices have fallen even more with no balance in sight! The poor old man is just too old and grumpy!
 
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semven
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 1:22 pm

semven and jimtan continue to chirp away like idiots.
nice...Dont like the topic Douche?
I love it! Its just proof that will embarrass you.
How will it embarrass me?
 
HAM
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 2:27 pm

How will it embarrass me?
Your inability to read & assess the market. Myself,timber, and gse have said enough. You choose to ignore the facts. Instead, you went for the cheese and now you're stuck in that trap Toopy.
So jimmy said I missed the dip in Richmond last year. And now prices have fallen even more with no balance in sight! The poor old man is just too old and grumpy!
 
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semven
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 4:14 pm

HAM » Fri Mar 01, 2013 3:27 pm

semven wrote:

How will it embarrass me?


Your inability to read & assess the market. Myself,timber, and gse have said enough. You choose to ignore the facts. Instead, you went for the cheese and now you're stuck in that trap Toopy





Oh really?
I`m pretty happy with where I am...Thinktom would probably agree
 
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jesse1
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Re: Are Prices Dropping as Fast as you Predicted/Hoped?

Fri Mar 01, 2013 10:56 pm

If sales remain below 2012 levels I would pencil in -10 to -8% year-on-year in March 2014. That's not good, given price drops of that size are usually bookended with weakness. To wit we'll be down -4% yoy or so next month. Say if prices drop a further 10%. In real terms that's close to halfway through a correction. Follow a 10% drop by another 4-6% drop in each of two years and I'll be calling for a nominal bottom. If I'm still here that is.

I forget my guess for this year. -6% was it?
There is no shame in overpaying

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