This is a friendly, interactive exchange of information on all Real Estate related subjects. Follow on Twitter: @RETALKS


Moderator: admin

 
eyesthebye
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5863
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:53 pm
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sun Oct 28, 2012 7:58 pm

vanpro,

on one side of your mouth you diminish the effect of foreign nationals buying Vancouver property. The other side of your mouth you
talk about how local incomes cannot possible support these housing prices. Which one are you today...Dr. Jackal or Mr Hide?
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
vanpro
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1863
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:30 pm

vanpro,

on one side of your mouth you diminish the effect of foreign nationals buying Vancouver property. The other side of your mouth you
talk about how local incomes cannot possible support these housing prices. Which one are you today...Dr. Jackal or Mr Hide?
Yes, that's why its a bubble: prices unsupportable by local incomes - see for example the REST of the WORLD (e.g. US, Ireland, Eurozone, UK, etc..) housing bubbles that popped for the very reasons highlighted in your quote above as well Vancouver's own history of housing bubbles popping (early 1980's and early 1990's when there was extreme unaffordable prices relative to local incomes)....if there actually is foreign income and wealth that is "immigrating" here in signficant, material number (i.e. not just 1% to 3% as Rennie, Muir and MAC say or 9% as your theory suggests), that would in fact explain high prices relative to local incomes. But that is not what is happening in GREATER Vancouver as a whole.
 
eyesthebye
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5863
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:53 pm
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:55 pm

vanpro,

on one side of your mouth you diminish the effect of foreign nationals buying Vancouver property. The other side of your mouth you
talk about how local incomes cannot possible support these housing prices. Which one are you today...Dr. Jackal or Mr Hide?
Yes, that's why its a bubble: prices unsupportable by local incomes - see for example the REST of the WORLD (e.g. US, Ireland, Eurozone, UK, etc..) housing bubbles that popped for the very reasons highlighted in your quote above as well Vancouver's own history of housing bubbles popping (early 1980's and early 1990's when there was extreme unaffordable prices relative to local incomes)....if there actually is foreign income and wealth that is "immigrating" here in signficant, material number (i.e. not just 1% to 3% as Rennie, Muir and MAC say or 9% as your theory suggests), that would in fact explain high prices relative to local incomes. But that is not what is happening in GREATER Vancouver as a whole.

think of it as an earthquake vanpro. At the epicentre is Van west, Richmond (Seafair), North Burnaby and West Vancouver. Of course the walls are vibrating here the most, but the effects are felt through the WHOLE REGION (there, I can yell just as loud as you can)
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
Taipan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3574
Joined: Fri May 30, 2008 11:24 pm
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Mon Oct 29, 2012 3:26 am

..
Last edited by Taipan on Mon Aug 12, 2013 3:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
timber2012
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1730
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:50 am
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Mon Oct 29, 2012 6:53 am

HAM purchase on west side detached likely 75% the last several years. Anyone who thinks this
amounts to 3% of the total sales data is smoking dope.
Skim off the best properties Vancouver has to offer and the locals scramble for the remainder.
You're damn right this is going to cause a significant change in the detached prices for any property
that HAM buys or does not buy.
hmmmm... so what about the opposite then. When HAM wants to pay $3M for a 33' lot with a new house in Pt Grey, this spills over and the locals scramble to buy the remainder (ie. east side).

When HAM leaves the market, wouldn't the opposite be true? Locals aren't competing for a 33' in Pt. Grey as much meaning their prices go down... and the locals aren't scrambling as much.

Now do you understand the point of my thread about the westside getting creamed? If the westside going overboard was a catalyst for price increases on the eastside, the westside getting creamed may have the opposite effect.
George Carlin once said "Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
 
eyesthebye
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5863
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:53 pm
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:39 am

HAM purchase on west side detached likely 75% the last several years. Anyone who thinks this
amounts to 3% of the total sales data is smoking dope.
Skim off the best properties Vancouver has to offer and the locals scramble for the remainder.
You're damn right this is going to cause a significant change in the detached prices for any property
that HAM buys or does not buy.
hmmmm... so what about the opposite then. When HAM wants to pay $3M for a 33' lot with a new house in Pt Grey, this spills over and the locals scramble to buy the remainder (ie. east side).

When HAM leaves the market, wouldn't the opposite be true? Locals aren't competing for a 33' in Pt. Grey as much meaning their prices go down... and the locals aren't scrambling as much.

Now do you understand the point of my thread about the westside getting creamed? If the westside going overboard was a catalyst for price increases on the eastside, the westside getting creamed may have the opposite effect.

aren't you supposed to have "retired" taipan?

There has been HAM "hot asian money" in Vancouver for decades now. Can't really define the money as "hot" anymore, can you?
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
vanpro
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1863
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:43 am

HAM purchase on west side detached likely 75% the last several years. Anyone who thinks this
amounts to 3% of the total sales data is smoking dope.
Skim off the best properties Vancouver has to offer and the locals scramble for the remainder.
You're damn right this is going to cause a significant change in the detached prices for any property
that HAM buys or does not buy.
hmmmm... so what about the opposite then. When HAM wants to pay $3M for a 33' lot with a new house in Pt Grey, this spills over and the locals scramble to buy the remainder (ie. east side).

When HAM leaves the market, wouldn't the opposite be true? Locals aren't competing for a 33' in Pt. Grey as much meaning their prices go down... and the locals aren't scrambling as much.

Now do you understand the point of my thread about the westside getting creamed? If the westside going overboard was a catalyst for price increases on the eastside, the westside getting creamed may have the opposite effect.

aren't you supposed to have "retired" taipan?

There has been HAM "hot asian money" in Vancouver for decades now. Can't really define the money as "hot" anymore, can you?
And Vancouver still had price crashes: early 1980's and early 1990's......
Last edited by vanpro on Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
timber2012
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1730
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:50 am
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:45 am

vanpro - you always let logic get in the way of ETB house of cards arguments.

ETB likes to make statements that are isolated in a vacuum of that statement. Once you take the logic a step further, his argument falls apart.
George Carlin once said "Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
 
vanpro
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1863
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Mon Oct 29, 2012 8:52 am

vanpro - you always let logic get in the way of ETB house of cards arguments.

ETB likes to make statements that are isolated in a vacuum of that statement. Once you take the logic a step further, his argument falls apart.
Right, got it. :D
 
timber2012
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1730
Joined: Fri Dec 16, 2011 10:50 am
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Mon Oct 29, 2012 9:17 am

Cue ETB accusing me of being someone else because when all his arguments fail, he has to resort to making up things to distract against the real issue.
George Carlin once said "Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”
 
User avatar
jesse1
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5097
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 12:51 pm
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Mon Oct 29, 2012 10:27 am

And Vancouver still had price crashes
China's GDP growth and investment spending has been on a tear for over a generation, I expect that to continue forever. At this rate China will have GDP larger than the rest of the world by 2030 and have labour cheaper than anyone else. How's that possible? Smart people in charge of central planning. Their government ensures only the best and the brightest are promoted and can, without question, decide how capital is allocated with far better accuracy than anyone else. The evidence is overwhelming.
There is no shame in overpaying
 
RiskArb
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 536
Joined: Thu May 06, 2004 9:12 pm
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:24 am

Perhaps we can agree the GVRD property market is basically bifurcated

- Offshore Driven Markets: Detached West Side, West Van, RMD, BBY, parts of COQ. Offshore buyers (including recently landed immigrants, proxies and noobs) effectively influence 70%++ of the market here. And there's a spill-over effect to other regions (ie Westside prospective purchasers having to go East Van, and the recent sellers of RMD large lots relocating to TSAW). Key factors influencing demand here are China and regulatory / immigration-linked....HK housing prices and Macau gaming revenues are prob leading indicators.

- Domestic Driven Markets: Everything else. Key demand drivers are int rates and incomes. Haven't thought through the leading indicators but this the conventional market that JoeBlow economist, Muir and Rennie know better and understand. Its a heck of a lot more simple.

Rennie and Muir stats are bunk. They don't account for landed immigrants, for proxies (bear in mind moving RMB offshore is illegal so why on earth would they purchase in their own name? 80% of HK accountants in Van are prob running Chinese money)) And the last gen TWN/HK arrivals trying to front-run them (there are tons)y. These purchasers prob amount to 20-25% of the actual purchases in the GVRD but influence 50-60% via the contagion described above.

Either way, both markets are prone for an ass-kicking...and for the Domestic-driven markets a severe one if NDP win the next election. GVRD's Offshore component may only dip temporarily if the govt allows increased tourism from mainland china...if that happens, we're f*cked. HK is gob-smack filled with mainland tourists (already regulated entry) and empty apartments they purchase to park their $$$. Average and lower income HK-ers earns far less than 2 and 5 years ago but property has multiplied 2-3 times now. I took a vacation to Tokyo and was shocked how cheap everything was there (whodathunk?).

Addendum: As HK is slowing the tap on mainland money, more will hit Vancouver (and Singapore + SF + NY)....and politically correct politicians will no doubt wait until it's too late to regulate.
 
vanpro
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1863
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:51 am

Perhaps we can agree the GVRD property market is basically bifurcated

- Offshore Driven Markets: Detached West Side, West Van, RMD, BBY, parts of COQ. Offshore buyers (including recently landed immigrants, proxies and noobs) effectively influence 70%++ of the market here. And there's a spill-over effect to other regions (ie Westside prospective purchasers having to go East Van, and the recent sellers of RMD large lots relocating to TSAW). Key factors influencing demand here are China and regulatory / immigration-linked....HK housing prices and Macau gaming revenues are prob leading indicators.

- Domestic Driven Markets: Everything else. Key demand drivers are int rates and incomes. Haven't thought through the leading indicators but this the conventional market that JoeBlow economist, Muir and Rennie know better and understand. Its a heck of a lot more simple.

Rennie and Muir stats are bunk. They don't account for landed immigrants, for proxies (bear in mind moving RMB offshore is illegal so why on earth would they purchase in their own name? 80% of HK accountants in Van are prob running Chinese money)) And the last gen TWN/HK arrivals trying to front-run them (there are tons)y. These purchasers prob amount to 20-25% of the actual purchases in the GVRD but influence 50-60% via the contagion described above.

Either way, both markets are prone for an ass-kicking...and for the Domestic-driven markets a severe one if NDP win the next election. GVRD's Offshore component may only dip temporarily if the govt allows increased tourism from mainland china...if that happens, we're f*cked. HK is gob-smack filled with mainland tourists (already regulated entry) and empty apartments they purchase to park their $$$. Average and lower income HK-ers earns far less than 2 and 5 years ago but property has multiplied 2-3 times now. I took a vacation to Tokyo and was shocked how cheap everything was there (whodathunk?).

Addendum: As HK is slowing the tap on mainland money, more will hit Vancouver (and Singapore + SF + NY)....and politically correct politicians will no doubt wait until it's too late to regulate.
Yah....and you've got zippo, nada, zero data, sources etc... to back up your numbers (i.e. "20-25% of actual purchases" etc...) that contradicts "industry insiders" like Rennie, Muir and MAC Marketing who all have independently provided essentially the same estimates of 1%-3% and the same conclusion that foreign money influence is way "overstated".

Refuting your theories are:

1. Your "bifurcated market" theory: this is the point jesse made: if that were the case, you would see those markets you say are heavily influenced by foreign wealth and foreign incomes (supposedly high incomes & high wealth immigrants) have high prices, while markets influenced by local incomes have much lower prices that reflect local incomes - but that is not the case: prices are crazy high everywhere (in absolute terms and relative to incomes in those respective areas).

2. Vancouver immigration stats clearly show RECORD LOW levels of immigration and population growth down to low of 1% per annum (Vancouver population was growing at 4%-5% per annum in the early 1990's) - so your mythcical "landed immigrants" are few and far between. Further, where is your evidence that those land immigrants are super wealthy house buyers?

3. Vancouver's economy is WAY behind other major Canadian cities in terms of job creation (14th), incomes, unemployment rate (15th from the top) and population growth (7th from the top), near record low hotel occupancy, retail sales, store shutdowns are increasing and so are restaurant failures: see the many citiations I and others have provided on other threads from sources such as: RBC Canadian Cities Economic Trends, Wall Financial (owner of Sheraton Wall Centre Hotel) public financial statements. If rich people were immigrating here with their massive spending power, and scouting homes whilst staying in the the best hotels as millionaires and billionaires are known to do, why is our economy, hotel industry & population growth in the doldrums, trailing ALL OTHER MAJOR CANADIAN cities (who, by the way, have house prices that are 1/4 to 1/2 of ours)???

From Wall Financial Corp. most recent MD&A:

"at the Sheraton Vancouver Wall Centre Hotel offset in part by the impact of the
current weak economic climate which negatively affects the tourism and hospitability industry and the
Company’s hotel operations.
"

RBCs Canadian City Economic Trends (from Sept/12):

http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/citytrend.pdf
 
User avatar
SethM
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1014
Joined: Thu May 27, 2010 3:32 pm
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Mon Oct 29, 2012 11:59 am

I think I have unearthed Vanpro's identity:
 
vanpro
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1863
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 12:32 pm
Contact:

Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:09 pm

SethM:

Rennie, et al (the hyper-bulls as I call them) say its a myth and it only amounts to 1%-3% of the overall market, albeit much higher (I have conceded this) in Van West SFH (although that has recently dropped significantly).

You are not providing any back up to counter that aside from: (1) well, the buyers names appear to be Chinese (even though we have had Chinese here for decades, so not "new" rich Chinese), (2) the buyers in the line ups look Chinese (even though Rennie, Muir etc.. says they are local Chinese) and (3) well, the prices are crazy high, THAT MUST BE BECAUSE FOREIGN, BILLIONAIRES are buying up everything - that is a circular argument: etb et al say that because the prices are high THERE MUST BE RATIONAL, FUNDAMENTAL REASON for the high prices (i.e. huge influx of foreign riches) and therefore the high prices are sustainable and it's not an irrational bubble.....

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 15 guests