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vanpro
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sat Oct 27, 2012 11:29 am

Money or rumors from mainland china are catalysts for local Vancouver ethnic chinese to act, often impulsively and too exuberantly, on real estates speculation.
Exactly what I have been saying....for the most part it is local money (and that is using LOCAL INCOMES and LOCAL WEALTH as confirmed by Rennie, Muir and MAC above) speculating irrationally (or as you put it "too exuberantly" ) - that is the very definition of an irrational bubble that is unsustainable because prices have become way too detached from local incomes/wealth...
But your posts seem to imply that mainland China HAM has very small effect.
That is flatly wrong.

HAM from China and local ethnic chinese attitude must be tightly knotted together, and combined they hugely inflate the housing bubble here and place like Toronto.
As you said, it is not HAM, it is HLMC....(A=Asian; M=Money, L=Local, C=Credit) ACTING "EXUBERANTLY and IMPULSIVELY" based on "RUMOURS" from China - this is classic definition of irrational bubble buying....And Local money is not enough to sustain these crazy prices.....Same thing happened in Vancouver in early 1980's and early 1990's - bubble followed by pop.
 
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jesse1
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:03 pm

vanpro is right, HAM is an excuse for gambling but not the cause. The numbers never made sense.
There is no shame in overpaying
 
IKnow
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:20 pm

vanpro is right, HAM is an excuse for gambling but not the cause. The numbers never made sense.
HAM is both excuse and the cause.
To be honest I wonder a bit how much HAM from China could drive residential real estates prices in a city.
In bigger USA cities like New York and LA, China HAM could not drive the prices.
In Vancouver and Sydney, the effects are measureable.
In HongKong, definitely yes, that's why Hong Kong government imposes more taxes for offshore (aka China) money spent on houses.
 
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jesse1
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sat Oct 27, 2012 2:58 pm

Disagree on cause. Local investors have free will, HAM is a catalyst for faith-based investing.

The cause, like all past bubbles, is mixing up independent and dependent variables. Or more simply, people relying on an unsustainable trend to justify poor yields.
There is no shame in overpaying
 
eyesthebye
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:16 pm

HAM purchase on west side detached likely 75% the last several years. Anyone who thinks this
amounts to 3% of the total sales data is smoking dope.
Skim off the best properties Vancouver has to offer and the locals scramble for the remainder.
You're damn right this is going to cause a significant change in the detached prices for any property
that HAM buys or does not buy.
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
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jesse1
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:29 pm

75%? Sounds like HAM was competing with itself! Nobody has to buy but locals do anyway. Their choice, nobody is forced to do anything.
There is no shame in overpaying
 
Taipan
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sat Oct 27, 2012 4:48 pm

..
Last edited by Taipan on Mon Aug 12, 2013 3:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
RiskArb
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:27 am

Vanpro, you edited Cam Muir quote, he did not say mainland Chinese counted 1-3% of Vancouver's total number of homebuyers, he said foreign buyers, you made it up. You edited Bob Rennie too, he said those people who lined upt to buy cambie and marine have local IDs, you quoted him as saying no mainland Chinese, why dont you quote his comments back in 2010 reflecting mainland chineses impact on the west side. that 80% of houses sold west of granville are to buyers with mainland Chinese last names

http://www.rennie.com/documents/2010NOV ... SPEECH.pdf

And he tagged it 90% of $2 million and more homes go to buyers with mainland Chinese last names as recently as Feb this year.

http://www.biv.com/article/20120313/BIV ... -vancouver

When Lancor issued report in 2011 showing 74% of buyers in homes in Vancouver West have mainland Chinese last name,

http://www.property-report.com/chinese- ... tudy-14545

you denied report as myth? what the H you know about Chinese names for you to be in position to say that?

You claimed numerous times mainland Chinese can not afford Vancouver homes because they find $25 lunch expensive. you know It is retarded comment and since then you have worked your A$$$ off defend your position to the point not just misquote but intentionally cherry picking to say the least or lie. Your character is on the line, not just your manhood, or you may have hidden in a hole you digged for the past decade, if this is the case, no charater issue, I apologize.
Sadly, Unicas is absolutely correct.
 
vanpro
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sun Oct 28, 2012 9:47 am

Vanpro, you edited Cam Muir quote, he did not say mainland Chinese counted 1-3% of Vancouver's total number of homebuyers, he said foreign buyers, you made it up. You edited Bob Rennie too, he said those people who lined upt to buy cambie and marine have local IDs, you quoted him as saying no mainland Chinese, why dont you quote his comments back in 2010 reflecting mainland chineses impact on the west side. that 80% of houses sold west of granville are to buyers with mainland Chinese last names

http://www.rennie.com/documents/2010NOV ... SPEECH.pdf

And he tagged it 90% of $2 million and more homes go to buyers with mainland Chinese last names as recently as Feb this year.

http://www.biv.com/article/20120313/BIV ... -vancouver

When Lancor issued report in 2011 showing 74% of buyers in homes in Vancouver West have mainland Chinese last name,

http://www.property-report.com/chinese- ... tudy-14545

you denied report as myth? what the H you know about Chinese names for you to be in position to say that?

You claimed numerous times mainland Chinese can not afford Vancouver homes because they find $25 lunch expensive. you know It is retarded comment and since then you have worked your A$$$ off defend your position to the point not just misquote but intentionally cherry picking to say the least or lie. Your character is on the line, not just your manhood, or you may have hidden in a hole you digged for the past decade, if this is the case, no charater issue, I apologize.
Sadly, Unicas is absolutely correct.
I have agreed (see above) that Van West SFH had (not anymore as sales have recently proven) a larger proportion of offshore buyers, but that is an EXTREMELY SMALL portion of the overall Greater Vancouver market - and as you can see from Rennie, MAC and Muir's estimates for the OVERALL Greater Vancouver market, it works out to b/w 1% to 3%. The rest of the market (i.e. 97%-99%) that went to bubble prices was a result of "exuhberance", "rumours", etc... - i.e. irrational, psychologically driven, bubble mentality....same thing happened in all of the rest of the world's housing bubbles from the US to Ireland to Eurozone and same thing happened to Vancouver in the early 1980's and early 1990's - bubble, then bursted bubble.
 
eyesthebye
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sun Oct 28, 2012 11:23 am

Vanpro, you edited Cam Muir quote, he did not say mainland Chinese counted 1-3% of Vancouver's total number of homebuyers, he said foreign buyers, you made it up. You edited Bob Rennie too, he said those people who lined upt to buy cambie and marine have local IDs, you quoted him as saying no mainland Chinese, why dont you quote his comments back in 2010 reflecting mainland chineses impact on the west side. that 80% of houses sold west of granville are to buyers with mainland Chinese last names

http://www.rennie.com/documents/2010NOV ... SPEECH.pdf

And he tagged it 90% of $2 million and more homes go to buyers with mainland Chinese last names as recently as Feb this year.

http://www.biv.com/article/20120313/BIV ... -vancouver

When Lancor issued report in 2011 showing 74% of buyers in homes in Vancouver West have mainland Chinese last name,

http://www.property-report.com/chinese- ... tudy-14545

you denied report as myth? what the H you know about Chinese names for you to be in position to say that?

You claimed numerous times mainland Chinese can not afford Vancouver homes because they find $25 lunch expensive. you know It is retarded comment and since then you have worked your A$$$ off defend your position to the point not just misquote but intentionally cherry picking to say the least or lie. Your character is on the line, not just your manhood, or you may have hidden in a hole you digged for the past decade, if this is the case, no charater issue, I apologize.
Sadly, Unicas is absolutely correct.
I have agreed (see above) that Van West SFH had (not anymore as sales have recently proven) a larger proportion of offshore buyers, but that is an EXTREMELY SMALL portion of the overall Greater Vancouver market - and as you can see from Rennie, MAC and Muir's estimates for the OVERALL Greater Vancouver market, it works out to b/w 1% to 3%. The rest of the market (i.e. 97%-99%) that went to bubble prices was a result of "exuhberance", "rumours", etc... - i.e. irrational, psychologically driven, bubble mentality....same thing happened in all of the rest of the world's housing bubbles from the US to Ireland to Eurozone and same thing happened to Vancouver in the early 1980's and early 1990's - bubble, then bursted bubble.

3% of our market? WTF are you smoking?
Do you think you'd have seen west side prices where they are if this was true?
where are you getting your stats from?
If you aren't just pulling them out of your ass you might want to include in your post with links.
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
Fabien
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:26 pm

This thread has had Vanpro using the word myth, Jesse taking in coded ambiguity and Taipan posting that F'ing chart AGAIN...!

Time for a drink to regain composure... :P


Oh, and Unicas is of course correct.
 
vanpro
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:27 pm

3% of our market? WTF are you smoking?
Do you think you'd have seen west side prices where they are if this was true?
where are you getting your stats from?
If you aren't just pulling them out of your ass you might want to include in your post with links.
See above all the links to all the estimates of 1%-3% (of the OVERALL Market, NOT just Van West SFH - but I guess you can't understand the math since you don't understand other simple arithmetic concepts like the difference b/w new listings and active listings). These estimates are from HYPER-BULLS Bob Rennie, Cameron Muir and MAC Marketing reprinted below because your head never seems to be out of your a** long enough to read & comprehend one sentence (all other readers please excuse the large print, but obviously this is required for ETB):

I said above that Van West % Mainland Chinese is higher than the market as a whole (i.e. all of Greater Vancouver), but overall Cam Muir says it still only works out to 1%-3% foreign buyers for the whole Greater Vancouver market.

Rennie's myth quote is right here (as well as MAC Marketing that corroborates the low % of foreign buyers):

Even hyper-bulls Cam Muir et al say Chinese and foreign buyer influence in Greater Vancouver housing markets is a myth (and also confirming my previous comments that just because buyer is Chinese doesn't mean they are recent immigrant - Chinese have been here for DECADES and are locals with local incomes):

"Industry experts have estimated the proportion of foreign buyers in the Vancouver region’s housing market at 1 to 3 per cent, said Cameron Muir, chief economist at the B.C. Real Estate Association. The perception of offshore money pouring into the area to acquire properties without foreigners even visiting them has been overstated, Mr. Muir said Tuesday, adding that many investors arrived in Canada several years ago. Here is one case in point. Mr. Liu’s father, Kevin, immigrated to Canada from China in 1999 and has been a Canadian citizen for the past decade. "

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/bri ... le4633625/

(Credit to SethM for posting this article on another thread)

"But even then, speaking to the Urban Development Institute in May 2011, condo marketer Bob Rennie observed that for the Lower Mainland as a whole, 2,500 condos are foreign-owned (or approximately 1.2 per cent) based on where assessment notices are sent. And foreign buyers of single-family homes are equally few, at just 607 (or 0.15 per cent of the regional total).
Another measure comes from MAC Marketing Solutions, which issued a report in June noting that of 500 buyers surveyed in the first five months of this year, just three listed an address in China as their primary residence
."

http://www.westerninvestor.com/index.ph ... -the-house

So that's Bob Rennie, MAC Marketing and Cameron Muir all stating the exact same 1%-3% foreign buyer number.

I know that you and other bulls want to (blindly) believe that there is a rational explanation for overall Greater Vancouver's insane prices (i.e. a bucket loads of foreign money, helicopter drop of foreign money, so "local incomes and wealth" don't matter), but you are dead wrong according to "industry insiders" Bob Rennie, Cam Muir and MAC Marketing (not from my mouth) - this is just like in Vancouver's past bubbles that popped: early 1980's and early 1990's.

And Rennie et al's estimates are further corroborated by Vancouver' plunging immigration and population growth numbers - recently down to as low as 1% per annum which is WAY below the 4%-5% per annum in the early 1990's (that data and sources have been posted elsewhere on other threads on this site ad infinitum).

EVEN IF you agree w/ ETB's out of the air estimate above that 75% of Van West SFH are to HAM (i.e. offshore Mainland Chinese), that still amounts to a MERE 9% of the overall SFH Greater Vancouver market:

See page 5 of Sept/12 REBGV stats package : http://www.scribd.com/doc/108744281/Sep ... ke-Stewart

Total SFH sales for Jan.-Sept., 2012 = 8.175

Total Van West SFH sales for Jan.-Sept., 2012 = 1,013

ETB's estimate of 75% of Van West SFH sales for Jan.-Sept., 2012 = 75% of 1,013 = 759 sales (about 84 / month or ONLY 4 sales to Mainland Chinese in Van West SFH per business day) = 9% of overall Great Vancouver SFH sales. By definition, 4 sales per day and only 9% of the overall Greater Vancouver market (even by your own estimate) can not explain the overall $1.2M avg. price of SFH in ALL of Greater Vancouver (from "Maple Ridge to Horeshoe Bay" as Ozzie describes it).
 
unicas
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sun Oct 28, 2012 5:03 pm

Vanpro, are you saying mainland chineses dont buy Richmond, Burnaby, Coquitlam, West Vancouver? Do you know there have been any least 10 new Shanghai cuisine restaurants along No.3 road in Richmond alone? Five years ago you can hardly find one. Even in lowly New Westminster, where traditionally Chinese have shunned away, they have become major factor. No major real estate development in the city would target the Chinese as their priority because it is suicidal not to. How many of those presale campers dont have black hair?

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/life/home- ... ice=mobile

The two-phase development, called Eight West, is located at 21 8th Avenue in the heart of New Westminster. But for reasons only understood by the increasing number of local realtors who have learned to target the Mainland Chinese market, it held an irresistible allure to the new Chinese buyers looking to invest their money in the Canadian housing market.

Bill Morrison, the marketer in charge of selling the project, says he realized halfway through his marketing plan that Chinese buyers were showing interest. Once he tweaked his focus to include Chinese-specific media, he had a buying frenzy on his hands, with a line-up around the block.

"I could have sold double that amount," says Mr. Morrison. "We had no idea that would be the result. There was a huge demand."

Of the 153 units sold, about 40 per cent went to Chinese buyers, and many of them would hardly be familiar with B.C.'s historic former capital city. A major marketing feature was the removal of the Harmonized Sales Tax, and while that strategy appealed to locals, it didn't matter so much to the new Chinese buyer, says Mr. Morrison. They would have regarded the tax as little more than the cost of doing business, he says. And unlike their Hong Kong predecessors who made up the buying wave of the 90s in Vancouver, Coquitlam and Richmond, the Mainland Chinese buyer is more open to all regions of Metro Vancouver.
Last edited by unicas on Sun Oct 28, 2012 8:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
 
vanpro
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sun Oct 28, 2012 6:11 pm

Great anecdote Unicas!

According to The top 2 condo marketers in Greater Vancouver (Bob Rennie and MAC Marketing) as well as hyper-bull Cameron Muir (chief economist of the BC Real Estate Association), that all amounts to about 1%-3% of the total Greater Vancouver housing market.

And yes, lots of Chinese in Richmond and other areas of Greater Vancouver - but, point that Cam Muir and Rennie make in the articles I posted above is that Chinese have been here for decades (and are part of the local income stats) and just because they are "lining up" to buy doesn't mean it is fresh new off-shore money just off the private jet from Mainland China. I think you should email these guys and make your arguments to Bob Rennie and Cameron Muir. Oh, and Rennie, MAC and Muir have access to the data to make those estimates.
 
unicas
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Re: H.K. Imposes Property Tax on Non-Locals

Sun Oct 28, 2012 6:23 pm

by Fabien » Sun Oct 28, 2012 1:26 pm

This thread has had Vanpro using the word myth, Jesse taking in coded ambiguity and Taipan posting that F'ing chart AGAIN...!

Time for a drink to regain composure... Oh, and Unicas is of course correct.
Vanpro has totally trashed the word MYTH, between Taipan F'ing chart and Vanpro's myth not sure which one causes throwup first. But thanks for bringing up

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