1) Age / Location / Occupation
25, Currently downtown, Self employed web developer, father of 2 little ones 2yrs & 6months
2) What real estate do you own?
3) What's your view on the market going forward? Buyer or seller? Which parts of the market?
I'd like to be living in a house with a YARD (they rarely make those any more). I'm very analytical and learning about this market in every free moment I've got. Currently I think we lack fundamentals, the market increases are unsustainable, also called "irrational exuberance" (coined before the dot com crash). The only reason people drive up demand is they believe it will keep going up. I believe in this "bigger fool's market" it will be impossible to predict when someone will blink because it's based entirely on psychology. It could be soon if people realize a house isn't a retirement, paying for it and nothing else isn't much of a life, and all the creative financing the banks can throw at you will hit the bidding war limit some time. Unless of course your happy to live in a chicklet sized apartment or town home, without a cent left to save towards something big enough to raise a family in.
I think (and hope) there will be at least a 15% correction, if interest rates go up then it could possibly go up to 30%.
4) Anything else?
- We have the worst affordability rate in the country, it's unrealistic to spend 7X your income or ~70% of your gross BEFORE TAX income on housing.
- We also have the highest consumer debt in the country. How can you "move up" later when we're spending 110% of every dollar we make annually?
- We're the 13th most unaffordable market (labeled "Severely Unaffordable") in the English speaking world, we've got the #4 most expensive downtown city per sqft in the world (above NYC, England and Tokyo, etc)
- We're a great city, and our economy is strong, but we're no where near those cities or even Calgary for GDP
- Frenzied and competitive bidding is a sign of desperation, families are buying out of fear ("or be priced out forever!") and and investors are buying out of greed ("it's a sure thing, it ALWAYS goes up!")
- 2010 isn't Expo 86, the world already knows where here this time, and we've already seen inflation twice what the previous 3 host cities saw and have 2.5 years left.
- What will our hot economy be like when everyone is house poor working just to pay their mortgage, they won't be out shopping and buying stuff, going to a movie or dinner, or saving and investing much
- In the next 25 years the number of Canadians 55 and older will go from 1 in 8 to 1 in 4 and lots will be down sizing