I think you've carefully worded your position here that if the market tanks, you're right. If the market goes up, you weren't wrong either. That's all. In terms of managing your personal financial portfolio, I believe you are smarter than the average person.
Are you assuming everyone is a FTB with a small down payment?
And to all the people that bought in 2012, many are already underwater. Too bad so many people are digging a big hole for themselves.