Eurozone near the abyss: OECD

[Taipan]

Oh were playing cat and mouse.

You and I know this stuff or if you dont know it, you should.

Macro Level - World and the country in question. Doesnt matter what you do on the regional or local level. If this is screwed so are you.

Regional level. This is looking at property on a regional and suburban level. You can have a great parcel of land but without the correct zoning and infrastructure and urban consolidation, itll have to wait for those things to occur.

Micro, local or individual level. This is the issues of the individual property.

You want to talk about the regional level. Trouble is you either ignore or dont want to look at the international and national events which will sweep you away.

Your choice mouse - but declare your interest as a consolidator of urban sites. Which means your in the game, and have a vested interest to continue seeing the price increases, and one of the last to admit a falling market

[jesse1]

Got to be as liquid as you can at the moment

What, Vancouver isn't liquid? I can sell whenever I want, baby!

[eyesthebye]

Got to be as liquid as you can at the moment

What, Vancouver isn't liquid? I can sell whenever I want, baby!

I hear Richmond is liquid

[Taipan]

Wasnt richmond falling in price? All the chinese buyers suddenly ran away.

But liquid. I sell 3 and wife sell 3. But realtor you get me 200k over asking on all my property or i not pay you anything and you lousey gwailo

[jesse1]

Richmond has liquification potential

[eyesthebye]

Richmond has liquification potential

exactly. Taipan missed my cheeky reference. I'll remember to slip an "LOL" in the next time to make it obvious.

[semven]

Taipan » Fri Dec 23, 2011 12:42 am

Very pleased to see im ruffling vested interest groups feathers. See readers, Mousey is in the game and thinks that its going to continue up in perpetuity.

Yes mousey - for all those in the game - the last thing you want is somebody raining on your parade.

Trying to off load some land are we?

Im not on title for any land anywhere...Nuthin to sell!

(But Im shopping....)

[Taipan]

Richmond has liquification potential

exactly. Taipan missed my cheeky reference. I'll remember to slip an "LOL" in the next time to make it obvious.

Lets talk liquifaction and its no laughing matter.

Ask the people of Christchurch. They also live on a fault line, and until recently liquifaction wasnt that common.

[semven]

Thought you guys might wanna read some stats that arent being spewed by someone who doesnt know BC....

CMHC forecasts real estate prices will show more modest growth in 2012


By TRACY SHERLOCK and Kim Covert, Vancouver Sun and Postmedia News December 29, 2011 4:07 PM
StoryPhotos ( 1 )

VANCOUVER, B.C.- OCTOBER 4, 2011- Generic real estate, for sale homes, and construction photos, in Vancouver, B.C. on October 4, 2011 (Ian Smith-PNG) Trax-00056315A [PNG Merlin Archive] [PNG Merlin Archive]Photograph by: Ian Smith, Vancouver SunAfter surprising growth in 2011, Greater Vancouver real estate prices will rise just two per cent in 2102, Canada Mortgage and Housing is forecasting.

In 2011, CHMC predicted price growth of just three per cent, tempered by an expectation of higher interest rates, but interest rates stayed low and prices ultimately jumped 16 to 17 per cent.

In 2012, the market will stabilize and show modest growth in line with inflation, said Robyn Adamache, senior market analyst with CMHC in Vancouver.

“I’d say it’s a pretty stable market out there. We’re not expecting to see a lot of change going forward,” Adamache Thursday said in an interview. “We have seen the market moving to more balanced conditions over the past five or six months, and that’s expected to continue.”

She said job growth and migration, including people from within Canada and immigrants, are the factors driving the housing market, and they should continue.

“So far, for the first 11 months of 2011, we’ve seen about 30,000 additional jobs created in the Metro Vancouver area,” Adamache said. “We’re forecasting that we’ll see 35,000 to 40,000 people moving here each year, going forward.”

Not all municipalities saw this kind of growth in housing prices in 2011; the west side of Vancouver and Richmond led the way with 20-per-cent or higher increases for single family homes, while other municipalities and multi-family homes saw lower growth.

For the five years leading up to 2010, the compound annual growth rate in Greater Vancouver for all types of homes was 10 per cent, while the 20-year average was six per cent, Adamache said.

In some areas, such as Maple Ridge, prices of condominiums have not recovered to pre-recession prices, Adamache said.

The average price of a home in Greater Vancouver, including single-family and multi-family homes, for 2011 up to Nov. 30 was $796,000. CMHC is calling for that average to rise to just over $800,000 by the end of 2012.

For November only, the monthly average was down slightly to $736,000, and Adamache said that trend might continue into the first half of 2012.

“I think we will see prices staying fairly flat until later in 2012,” Adamache said.

Across the country, prices were 5.8 per cent higher in 2010, to an average $339,042.

Forty-eight per cent of households in Vancouver own their own homes, while nationally the average is 68 per cent.

In Greater Vancouver, housing starts will see growth of about five per cent in 2012, compared to 12 to 15 per cent in 2011, and the number of houses sold will also increase about nine per cent over 2011, Adamache said.

Meanwhile, CMHC released its 2011 Canadian Housing Observer Thursday, showing that Canadians owed more than a trillion dollars on their mortgages as of March, which when added to other household debt is a “serious issue.”

The CMHC reported that housing-related spending of about $330 billion a year in 2010 has risen by 67 per cent since 2001 and now comprises 20.3 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product in 2010 — which underlines the importance of that debt load, and what might happen to the economy if for any reason Canadians crack under its burden.

CMHC figures show that mortgages made up about 68 per cent of total household debt in 2010 — up from 63 per cent in 1971 but down from the peak of 75 per cent in 1993. Consumer credit, which makes up the other 32 per cent, has been growing faster than mortgage debt over the past two decades, it says.

A breakdown of these numbers for B.C. was not available; however, the report shows that B.C. has a high percentage of mortgage-free homeowners at 47 per cent, a number second only to Cape Breton.

“The major risk in the mortgage market is impairment in a household’s ability to pay, often due to job loss. Recession or other adverse economic scenarios, such as rising interest rates, could certainly pose a challenge for some Canadian households,” the report states.

Canadians’ debt levels have been growing fairly steadily since the 1960s, the report notes, but adds that a number of more recent factors have allowed debt to grow to its current record level, including low interest rates, rising household incomes and financial product innovations, which have allowed Canadians to make lower payments on higher debt loads.

While about 6.5 per cent of Canadian households are financially vulnerable according to Bank of Canada guidelines, the CMHC says continued employment growth, increasing net worth of households and a growing population are all positive factors for housing demand.

tsherlock@vancouversun.com


Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/business/CM ... z1hyolKKeQ

[Taipan]

In 2011, CHMC predicted price growth of just three per cent, tempered by an expectation of higher interest rates, but interest rates stayed low and prices ultimately jumped 16 to 17 per cent.

In 2012, the market will stabilize and show modest growth in line with inflation, said Robyn Adamache, senior market analyst with CMHC in Vancouver.

Same forecast two different years.

Oh and BTW what did average and median income rise in 2011?

You have the largest player in Canadian mortgages, they pick that interest rates should have risen, they didnt and prices rose 16-17%.

Now we hear that interest rates are due to fall because of the OECD.

What only modest growth in 2012! Whats that? 20%. The market is totally out of control

[vanreal]

Is there any way we can get Taipan blocked. The guy has a screw loose and I am so sick of reading his pathetic rants.

[Taipan]

Why do you want me blocked?

No opposing views allowed?

You want this whole site to become one big add for the real estate industry and now is a great day to buy because today and every other day of the week ends in Y and we all know that buying real estate on any day ending in Y is lucky.

You and a few others don’t like me because I’m telling you what’s happening in the real world!

And the whole world is in a major mess. And Vancouver will not be immune from this.

I’m uncomfortable to people like you Vanreal because I don’t drink the Vancouver cool aid.

I’m not consumed by the Vancouver property bubble mania.

Vanreal i read some of your stuff and find it highly insulting for intelligent people.

You in the game Vanreal? Possibly biased?

But you know i wouldn’t want you banned because one by one the bulls who have tried to push me from this site have left.

Remember Islandlandlord from Victoria? Victoria is now in a mess.

Finally i come to this site to waste time while i wait for your property bubble to burst as I will be buying property in BC in the next few years. And this is the BC forum (not the Vancouver forum in case you hadn’t noticed.)

There will be a good time to buy property but not at the moment!

In fact it may yet come to pass that buying real estate in Vancouver is a good thing, but not till it falls at least 50% in value and that is between 3-6 years from now.

And do you know what I’m off to do now. Update my data base of all property listings in my chosen area. A database I’ve methodically kept since joining this forum in May 2008.

That doesn’t sound like a psycho, a nut case, or a fool. It does sound like somebody who is not subject to acting on impulse, and is careful and methodical in their actions!

Do you know what I’m seeing? I’m seeing properties sitting for years without sale.

What’s that mean? No sales, no transactions, no market. The vendors and the buyers have drawn a line and are now waiting for one side to crack.

And I’m seeing vendors now slashing over $100,000 off asking prices to try and tempt buyers into the market.

Summer is looking fine in the mountains. How’d you like steak done boys. Blue!

[semven]

Why dont you regurgitate your tired old graph again Taipan and put it next to the News Story I posted above...Then you can go to your shrink and ask him if he belives you are in the Development Community...

[Taipan]

Why dont you regurgitate your tired old graph again Taipan and put it next to the News Story I posted above...Then you can go to your shrink and ask him if he belives you are in the Development Community...

You know the interesting thing mousey. You can be right a dozen times and you think your brilliant, when your just running with the rest of the horde. I just need to be right once and you are wiped out.

And i will be right, the only issue at stake is timing, and I’m still here because the timing is short.

Not 5 years off or something ridiculous.

AS for the graphs. They’ll be back shortly sunshine.

Looks like we maybe at a turning point. But ill wait to see a nice downward gradient and then show the broader community and rub the bulls noses in it then.

But you know that because you’re seeing it on the ground.

I imagine over the next few years, there will be plenty of those in the development community who were too smug, and inexperienced, not to see the massive freight train barrelling towards them.

Youll come out of this badly scared. In 20 years time youll have some young turk telling you its different this time, and youll laugh. Its never different its just the actors have changed.

Only then will you understand what ive been trying to tell you fully. Bubbles - no matter the asset class always end up popping, and the losses are always massive.

Have a nice day blossom

[semven]

Its too bad you dont understand...When you buy land that is not at its "highest and best use" you are insulated against downside risk by merely improving the value of the land by improving its use. This is what a developer does...Period. If you were in fact a developer you wouldnt be graphing sales on the retail side, you would be more interested in the wholesale side of the equation. You wouldnt be upset with the demand for retail...You woulld be encouraged by it. Unless you were "competing" in the retail end (which you are) Leave the wholesale side to the Developers (which you are not) and for the record neither am I.