Buying for Value – A bears tale!

[gobigorgohome]

What is the price to income ratio on a million dollar recreation property in Sun Peaks? I'm guessing the average wage is $15 an hour up there? Assuming the ski bums up there are making 20K a year, that's a 50X price to income ratio on your property! See, I can twist stats to make stupid arguments too!

If you understand property dynamics you will know that booms expand from the centre out. eg Vancouver and Toronto and Calgary etc. Then when the bust comes, it contracts back in to the centre so the last place to be crunched is the centre of the circle. Thats whats happening now. You see the problems all around BC. And places in the outside of the circle are already back or approaching back to sensible levels.

You just spent the last dozen posts talking about how we are on the verge of a global financial disaster. According to you, we haven't seen anything yet. You even babbled about "hyper inflation" (lolz, sensible people know the threat is deflation). It would only be logical to assume that places like Sun Peaks will be the first on the chopping block once the Lower Mainland runs out of steam, and newly underwater home owners in Vancouver divest themselves of their recreational properties in the interior. The time to buy would have been AFTER the Lower Mainland runs out of steam, not BEFORE.

Face facts Taipan, there is no price support in Sun Peaks for properties at these prices. The local ski bums and service workers will be scooping up the properties around you for 50%+ discounts once your Asian vendors sell off their properties in Sun Peaks, in a panic, to recoup losses on their underwater properties in Vancouver proper. Once your GFC2 hits and billions of dollars of equity is wiped out of the Lower Mainland in an unprecedented fashion, Sun Peaks will become a ghost town, and desperate Asian vendors will be foreclosing left right and centre, regardless of your 2006 price level theory, and prices will re-align to true local income levels and inventory will sit on market for years, especially for million dollar properties.

Hey, it's not my money, and I don't care that you bought in Sun Peaks at probably 50X price to local income levels. I also find it strange you bought a million dollar recreation property shortly before when you claim macro global events are about to freeze global credit markets and shatter the property myth. But hey, good luck with that!

[gobigorgohome]

The property Ive bought has never been for rent. Its not an investment the way you think about all properties. I expect to see no appreciation in value for a decade

That's good, because with the likely deflationary period we are entering, money will be scarce, and people aren't exactly going to be lining up to buy a recreational property in the BC interior. I would wager you'll be off 50% at the trough and prices in that area will break record lows. But hey, at least you'll be paying less property taxes!

Oh to be a bull like you!

[semven]

ETB is right.
Rec property usually ties up the title on the owners principle residence, unless he can afford to pay cash for it. Once interest rates start to climb, the secondary properties lose their lustre and are first on the block to allow the owner to pay the mortgage back down on his principle residence.
The ones in the interior are the first to go as well since they are usually held by people who (like Taipan) cant afford Whistler

[Taipan]

You cant even understand the basics of what I told you, can you.

Did you fail basic comprehension? Obviously so. Its already a hell of a long way towards the bottom right now.

Vancouver is near the top.

If I had paid crazy Vancouver prices I would have paid $2m.

But you know there are still plenty of vendors up there asking stupid prices.

And the properties sit and sit and sit. Buyers refuse to pay. I know a number of them are from Vancouver.

And now that is starting to happen in Vancouver with inventory rising and approaching 17,000. Games over.

[Taipan]

ETB is right.
Rec property usually ties up the title on the owners principle residence, unless he can afford to pay cash for it. Once interest rates start to climb, the secondary properties lose their lustre and are first on the block to allow the owner to pay the mortgage back down on his principle residence.
The ones in the interior are the first to go as well since they are usually held by people who (like Taipan) cant afford Whistler

Vendor had no mortgage. Purchaser will have no mortgage. As an example you arguement fails. See some people dont OD on debt.

However the comment has some validity, but that market has been in trouble since GFC1.

Its not a case of that starting now, its already been going on for 4 years already.

Like i say, this market didnt take off like Vancouver even though many owners thought it should. But it didnt, and so the prices are back before the bubble really got going.

[semven]

You cant even understand the basics of what I told you, can you.

Did you fail basic comprehension? Obviously so. Its already a hell of a long way towards the bottom right now.

Vancouver is near the top.

If I had paid crazy Vancouver prices I would have paid $2m.

But you know there are still plenty of vendors up there asking stupid prices.

And the properties sit and sit and sit. Buyers refuse to pay. I know a number of them are from Vancouver.

And now that is starting to happen in Vancouver with inventory rising and approaching 17,000. Games over.

Couple things here. Did you fail basic Geography?
If you had paid crazy Vancouver prices my first question would be how you got the money since you arent smart enough to realize you overshot Vancouver by 300km.
Second thing is that if you regurgitated one of your graphs from around 2009 you would discover that 17000 listings isnt uncharted territory in the Bulls camp...Doesnt mean we arent going to see a correction (especially MFH) I still say it wont be drastic and I maintain my position that selection will improve...As Thompson always said "Shutout the background noise and buy (pay attention to) the deal"

[eyesthebye]

"Taipan"

Vendor had no mortgage. Purchaser will have no mortgage.

your vendor had no mortgage, you have no mortgage. This is the exception not the rule

[Taipan]

You cant even understand the basics of what I told you, can you.

Did you fail basic comprehension? Obviously so. Its already a hell of a long way towards the bottom right now.

Vancouver is near the top.

If I had paid crazy Vancouver prices I would have paid $2m.

But you know there are still plenty of vendors up there asking stupid prices.

And the properties sit and sit and sit. Buyers refuse to pay. I know a number of them are from Vancouver.

And now that is starting to happen in Vancouver with inventory rising and approaching 17,000. Games over.

Couple things here. Did you fail basic Geography?
If you had paid crazy Vancouver prices my first question would be how you got the money since you arent smart enough to realize you overshot Vancouver by 300km.
Second thing is that if you regurgitated one of your graphs from around 2009 you would discover that 17000 listings isnt uncharted territory in the Bulls camp...Doesnt mean we arent going to see a correction (especially MFH) I still say it wont be drastic and I maintain my position that selection will improve...As Thompson always said "Shutout the background noise and buy (pay attention to) the deal"

Go back and reread the start of the thread. It shows how the mania of Vancouver property prices was influencing interior markets until the GFC.

From that point on, those markets started to contract back towards fundamental value. There was a seperation between buyers and sellers. Where sales occurred they more correctly reflected more realistic market pricing instead of bubble pricing.

And that pricing has been dropping over the last 4 years, and as shown getting back to fundamental values. But many vendors dont understand and there still remains many properties with Vancouver pricing representing that mania still exists.

In my excel data base I have pages and pages of properties that have been on the market for over 12 months without sale or withdrawn in frustration. I have 20 listings that were on the market for over 3 years.

Its a real bugger when those buyers go on strike isnt it.

17000 listings and the cracks are starting to appear, even from ratty.

[Taipan]

"Taipan"

Vendor had no mortgage. Purchaser will have no mortgage.

your vendor had no mortgage, you have no mortgage. This is the exception not the rule

Imagine that. Real money. Not debt!

[semven]

You cant even understand the basics of what I told you, can you.

Did you fail basic comprehension? Obviously so. Its already a hell of a long way towards the bottom right now.

Vancouver is near the top.

If I had paid crazy Vancouver prices I would have paid $2m.

But you know there are still plenty of vendors up there asking stupid prices.

And the properties sit and sit and sit. Buyers refuse to pay. I know a number of them are from Vancouver.

And now that is starting to happen in Vancouver with inventory rising and approaching 17,000. Games over.

Couple things here. Did you fail basic Geography?
If you had paid crazy Vancouver prices my first question would be how you got the money since you arent smart enough to realize you overshot Vancouver by 300km.
Second thing is that if you regurgitated one of your graphs from around 2009 you would discover that 17000 listings isnt uncharted territory in the Bulls camp...Doesnt mean we arent going to see a correction (especially MFH) I still say it wont be drastic and I maintain my position that selection will improve...As Thompson always said "Shutout the background noise and buy (pay attention to) the deal"

Go back and reread the start of the thread. It shows how the mania of Vancouver property prices was influencing interior markets until the GFC.

From that point on, those markets started to contract back towards fundamental value. There was a seperation between buyers and sellers. Where sales occurred they more correctly reflected more realistic market pricing instead of bubble pricing.

And that pricing has been dropping over the last 4 years, and as shown getting back to fundamental values. But many vendors dont understand and there still remains many properties with Vancouver pricing representing that mania still exists.

In my excel data base I have pages and pages of properties that have been on the market for over 12 months without sale or withdrawn in frustration. I have 20 listings that were on the market for over 3 years.

Its a real bugger when those buyers go on strike isnt it.

17000 listings and the cracks are starting to appear, even from ratty.

Dont have to re read anything..You say Vancouver had in your words "Yum Cha" money driving the market and the ripple effect stretched all the way to Barriere.
Thats just stupid.....

[Taipan]

I snipe at yum cha.

Where the hell is Barriere? Which consequnetly means your lying because I have no idea what your talking about my little rat mate!

[tdma800]

Dont have to re read anything..You say Vancouver had in your words "Yum Cha" money driving the market and the ripple effect stretched all the way to Barriere.
Thats just stupid.....

Foreign words don't have any relation to the market here. Buyers and sellers set the market. Realtors don't set the market.

[semven]

I snipe at yum cha.

Where the hell is Barriere? Which consequnetly means your lying because I have no idea what your talking about my little rat mate!

Who would be lying? I think its just about time to call BULLSHIT on your Sun Peaks purchase as well....

Let me show you where Barriere is


http://www.sunpeakscollection.com/Properties.php/Details/209

[Taipan]

That’s wonderful ratty. You’ve actually taught me something. Now I know where Barriere is . Its not in the resort, is it?

Now me buying and showing potential buyers how to price the market to fundamentals is the intention of this thread.

The intention of the bulls is try and paint one of the mega bears on the site as having capitulated and bought, which supports their bullish position.

I’ve explained how the market is working, how for a vendor to sell he has to meet the market which is now back to 2005-2006 levels as shown by recent market evidence. Occasionally vendors get a bit lucky, but other potential buyers are sitting on their hands and sharpening their claws for the late summer.

But here is 2 examples of massively overpriced properties.

One of the owners I know for certain is from Vancouver and they have been inflicted by the mania.

Originally listed at $2,199,000 161 days ago. What’s it worth IMHO. I would have paid $1.3m - $1.4m

http://www.sunpeakscollection.com/Activ ... viewdetail

Almost directly across the road!

http://www.sunpeakscollection.com/Activ ... viewdetail

No price change. 290 days on the market. What’s it worth IMHO. $1.0m - $1.1m

That’s the effect of the mania. Not a rental, but owners appear to have had Asian ancestry. And we know what that ethnic group thinks about property pricing.

So no I didn’t capitulate! I actually bought at pre bubble value, which is where prices will fall back to right across Canada.

On the outer rings of the blast radius that is already happening, and right across Canada those rings are rapidly contracting back into the centre.

Places like Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto will all pop and the prices plunge back to long term fundamentals.

[semven]

Sorry again Liepan
I just showed you waterfront property 38km away. You have NO idea what you are talking about. FWIW your comparable properties 300KM away arent in the resort either....

BTW Im actually Bearish on what and where you just bought....Its fluff, and this economy only rewards proper buying discipline. The property you are touting is already at its highest and best use. So is the waterfront at Barriere, but....It is waterfront, so can I compare it to properties on SW Marine Drive in Vancouver?