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thinktom
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1695
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Re: Going Going Gone

Wed Oct 19, 2011 1:10 pm

very interesting stats.
I had assumed that there were approx 70,000 detached single family homes in Vancouver.
it appears that this is what it was circa 1991 (67,840), and 2006 shows that this was reduced
to 48,365 by redvelopment to multi-family

So my assumption is now backed by stats.
Each year there are fewer and fewer single family homes in this city.
Perhaps if we added the 20,000 SFH that were converted to other we might actually
see some prices reductions and some point in the future.

Just think Vanpro, we're losing 1300 detached homes each year, so we're probably sitting at 43K right now.
In another 15 years the single family detached might be a very rare sight indeed.
This is a survey, not a full count and therefore does NOT equal the actual total # of homes - it depends on the # respondents - like and election - turnout is way less than total population. Also, although there are legal requirements to return census forms and fully completed, it is impossible to fully enforce and also heavily dependent on accurate and honest responses from those that do respond.
SFH's are dwindling in many areas, including the last 4 homes in the last 4 areas I've owned. To think otherwise is incorrect.
 
RENoob
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Posts: 515
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Re: Going Going Gone

Wed Oct 19, 2011 3:22 pm

Three of my friends are leaving the city. One has already left in the spring, another has left just 2 weeks ago and third is leaving in about 1 month. All 3 are professionals making decent money, 2 of them are leaving the country, one of them is moving to another province. I guess one good thing is that they create job openings for other professionals. There is a good chance I'll be leaving the country also in the first half of 2012, and i'll be selling my property when i leave. Not sure how this compares to overall vancouver immigration statistics but I just wanted to throw these anecdotes out there.
 
vanreal
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Re: Going Going Gone

Wed Oct 19, 2011 3:30 pm

Three of my friends are leaving the city. One has already left in the spring, another has left just 2 weeks ago and third is leaving in about 1 month. All 3 are professionals making decent money, 2 of them are leaving the country, one of them is moving to another province. I guess one good thing is that they create job openings for other professionals. There is a good chance I'll be leaving the country also in the first half of 2012, and i'll be selling my property when i leave. Not sure how this compares to overall vancouver immigration statistics but I just wanted to throw these anecdotes out there.
No offense but who cares. People leave cities all the time and more people move in. end of story.
 
rofina
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Re: Going Going Gone

Wed Oct 19, 2011 7:40 pm

Three of my friends are leaving the city. One has already left in the spring, another has left just 2 weeks ago and third is leaving in about 1 month. All 3 are professionals making decent money, 2 of them are leaving the country, one of them is moving to another province. I guess one good thing is that they create job openings for other professionals. There is a good chance I'll be leaving the country also in the first half of 2012, and i'll be selling my property when i leave. Not sure how this compares to overall vancouver immigration statistics but I just wanted to throw these anecdotes out there.
No offense but who cares. People leave cities all the time and more people move in. end of story.
Who cares? I know who should. People that claim that a strong in migration of people is putting upwards pressure on prices. Lets forget the fact that latest immigration statistics don't support this.

I just don't really understand how any poster can be okay with anecdotes of people leaving the city due to high cost of living. Whats funny or good about pushing out families, and destroying vibrant neighbourhoods by leaving houses vacant? I see the effects of this all around my old neighbourhood, families are moving out, old houses are torn down and bigger houses are built. Sadly ironic situation that as our family sizes shrink the sizes of our homes is growing.

But I digress, who cares, right?
 
tdma800
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Re: Going Going Gone

Thu Oct 20, 2011 4:50 am

Three of my friends are leaving the city. One has already left in the spring, another has left just 2 weeks ago and third is leaving in about 1 month. All 3 are professionals making decent money, 2 of them are leaving the country, one of them is moving to another province. I guess one good thing is that they create job openings for other professionals. There is a good chance I'll be leaving the country also in the first half of 2012, and i'll be selling my property when i leave. Not sure how this compares to overall vancouver immigration statistics but I just wanted to throw these anecdotes out there.
No offense but who cares. People leave cities all the time and more people move in. end of story.
i solemnly and hereby declare, +1
 
eyesthebye
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Posts: 5863
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Re: Going Going Gone

Thu Oct 20, 2011 6:21 am

Three of my friends are leaving the city. One has already left in the spring, another has left just 2 weeks ago and third is leaving in about 1 month. All 3 are professionals making decent money, 2 of them are leaving the country, one of them is moving to another province. I guess one good thing is that they create job openings for other professionals. There is a good chance I'll be leaving the country also in the first half of 2012, and i'll be selling my property when i leave. Not sure how this compares to overall vancouver immigration statistics but I just wanted to throw these anecdotes out there.
No offense but who cares. People leave cities all the time and more people move in. end of story.
i solemnly and hereby declare, +1
+2
anecdotes about fine young skilled educated professionals leaving are vastly over-represented by sour renters

anecdotes about fine young skilled educated professionals arriving are vastly under-represented by sour renters
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
HomelessinSD
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Posts: 600
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Re: Going Going Gone

Thu Oct 20, 2011 7:05 am

anecdotes about fine young skilled educated professionals leaving are vastly over-represented by sour renters

anecdotes about fine young skilled educated professionals arriving are vastly under-represented by sour renters

You can only provide anecdotes about what you experience… care to provide your own experiences about young professionals moving to Vancouver for the job opportunities?
People flood in from all over the country / world to the bay area to work for software, big pharma, medical research, finance, micro-biology, etc. From your personal experience, who are the big employers in Vancouver attracting young professionals?
 
fishguy15
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Posts: 1119
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Re: Going Going Gone

Thu Oct 20, 2011 7:09 am


anecdotes about fine young skilled educated professionals leaving are vastly over-represented by sour renters

anecdotes about fine young skilled educated professionals arriving are vastly under-represented by sour renters
Maybe true, but you can't deny the stats that were given that shows there are more people leaving than coming. Not a good trend.
 
vanpro
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Posts: 1863
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Re: Going Going Gone

Thu Oct 20, 2011 7:16 am

Sorry to re-post the facts but since some people continue to deny them:

The actual data corroborate the story/article from Vancouver Magazine in the original post and prove that Vancouver's population growth (i.e. NETTING-OUT incoming people with out-going people) is down to near 10 yr lows due to plunging immigration and net OUT-migration to other provinces - Vancouver is way behind other Canadian cities in population growth, jobs, etc...Here are the facts with back-up data citations from StasCan etc..:

http://www.central1.com/publications/ec ... 9%20BC.pdf

Quotes:

"Slower population growth in recent quarters has
refl ected a sharp decline in the fl ow of landed international
immigrants to the province and an increased
outfl ow of residents to other provinces.
"

"This slowdown in international immigration
likely refl ects ongoing challenges in the global
economy and tepid labour markets that have slowed
both the demand for and supply of immigrants.

Meanwhile, B.C. also recorded an estimated net loss
of 746 persons to other provinces during the quarter.
While the infl ow and outfl ow of migrants to and from
B.C. has trended higher since late 2009, the outfl ow
has risen substantially faster, refl ecting stronger
labour market fundamentals in other regions. The
unemployment rate in B.C. was 7.5% in August, while
comparable rates in the Prairies ranged from 4.5%
in Saskatchewan to 5.6% in Alberta. Year-over-year
employment growth in Alberta was 4.2%, in contrast
to no change in B.C. Tighter labour markets and thus
higher potential for income gains has increased the
incentive for individuals to cross the provincial border
for economic reasons."

And, for comparative data for Canadian cities showing Vancouver trailing in all major economic categories and trailing Toronto, Calgary, Saskatoon and other CDN cities in population growth:

http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/citytrend.pdf
 
eyesthebye
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Posts: 5863
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:53 pm
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Re: Going Going Gone

Thu Oct 20, 2011 8:49 am

anecdotes about fine young skilled educated professionals leaving are vastly over-represented by sour renters

anecdotes about fine young skilled educated professionals arriving are vastly under-represented by sour renters

You can only provide anecdotes about what you experience… care to provide your own experiences about young professionals moving to Vancouver for the job opportunities?
People flood in from all over the country / world to the bay area to work for software, big pharma, medical research, finance, micro-biology, etc. From your personal experience, who are the big employers in Vancouver attracting young professionals?
yes,
10-12 health care professionals in my office arriving to Vancouver in the past two years from Vancouver Island, Alberta, UK, Australia, and Denmark. Far more arriving than leaving in my line of work - others might have different experience.
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
eyesthebye
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Posts: 5863
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Re: Going Going Gone

Thu Oct 20, 2011 8:51 am


anecdotes about fine young skilled educated professionals leaving are vastly over-represented by sour renters

anecdotes about fine young skilled educated professionals arriving are vastly under-represented by sour renters
Maybe true, but you can't deny the stats that were given that shows there are more people leaving than coming. Not a good trend.
unless you prove it I'll deny it.
My stats show the opposite.
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
fishguy15
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Posts: 1119
Joined: Fri May 16, 2008 5:17 am
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Re: Going Going Gone

Thu Oct 20, 2011 8:55 am

unless you prove it I'll deny it.
My stats show the opposite.
Here, I'll show you mine, now you show me your stats.
Meanwhile, B.C. also recorded an estimated net loss of 746 persons to other provinces during the quarter.
Taken right from the report below.

http://www.central1.com/publications/ec ... 9%20BC.pdf
 
eyesthebye
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5863
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2009 2:53 pm
Contact:

Re: Going Going Gone

Thu Oct 20, 2011 8:57 am

Sorry to re-post the facts but since some people continue to deny them:

The actual data corroborate the story/article from Vancouver Magazine in the original post and prove that Vancouver's population growth (i.e. NETTING-OUT incoming people with out-going people) is down to near 10 yr lows due to plunging immigration and net OUT-migration to other provinces - Vancouver is way behind other Canadian cities in population growth, jobs, etc...Here are the facts with back-up data citations from StasCan etc..:

http://www.central1.com/publications/ec ... 9%20BC.pdf

Quotes:

"Slower population growth in recent quarters has
refl ected a sharp decline in the fl ow of landed international
immigrants to the province and an increased
outfl ow of residents to other provinces.
"

"This slowdown in international immigration
likely refl ects ongoing challenges in the global
economy and tepid labour markets that have slowed
both the demand for and supply of immigrants.

Meanwhile, B.C. also recorded an estimated net loss
of 746 persons to other provinces during the quarter.
While the infl ow and outfl ow of migrants to and from
B.C. has trended higher since late 2009, the outfl ow
has risen substantially faster, refl ecting stronger
labour market fundamentals in other regions. The
unemployment rate in B.C. was 7.5% in August, while
comparable rates in the Prairies ranged from 4.5%
in Saskatchewan to 5.6% in Alberta. Year-over-year
employment growth in Alberta was 4.2%, in contrast
to no change in B.C. Tighter labour markets and thus
higher potential for income gains has increased the
incentive for individuals to cross the provincial border
for economic reasons."

And, for comparative data for Canadian cities showing Vancouver trailing in all major economic categories and trailing Toronto, Calgary, Saskatoon and other CDN cities in population growth:

http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/citytrend.pdf
again, cherry-picking stats.
For the first time in more than a decade our provincial net immigration is less than 0. A one time event is not a trend.
Also, you neglected to mention that we had,
"a gain of 12,281 individuals (0.27%) from April 1".
so our international net migration is still on pace for 45-50K/year.
Yet again vanpro, what is your motivation for minimizing the effects of international immigration?
the cure for higher prices is moving to a destination with lower prices
 
rofina
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1552
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2009 6:39 pm
Contact:

Re: Going Going Gone

Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:03 am

Sorry to re-post the facts but since some people continue to deny them:

The actual data corroborate the story/article from Vancouver Magazine in the original post and prove that Vancouver's population growth (i.e. NETTING-OUT incoming people with out-going people) is down to near 10 yr lows due to plunging immigration and net OUT-migration to other provinces - Vancouver is way behind other Canadian cities in population growth, jobs, etc...Here are the facts with back-up data citations from StasCan etc..:

http://www.central1.com/publications/ec ... 9%20BC.pdf

Quotes:

"Slower population growth in recent quarters has
refl ected a sharp decline in the fl ow of landed international
immigrants to the province and an increased
outfl ow of residents to other provinces.
"

"This slowdown in international immigration
likely refl ects ongoing challenges in the global
economy and tepid labour markets that have slowed
both the demand for and supply of immigrants.

Meanwhile, B.C. also recorded an estimated net loss
of 746 persons to other provinces during the quarter.
While the infl ow and outfl ow of migrants to and from
B.C. has trended higher since late 2009, the outfl ow
has risen substantially faster, refl ecting stronger
labour market fundamentals in other regions. The
unemployment rate in B.C. was 7.5% in August, while
comparable rates in the Prairies ranged from 4.5%
in Saskatchewan to 5.6% in Alberta. Year-over-year
employment growth in Alberta was 4.2%, in contrast
to no change in B.C. Tighter labour markets and thus
higher potential for income gains has increased the
incentive for individuals to cross the provincial border
for economic reasons."

And, for comparative data for Canadian cities showing Vancouver trailing in all major economic categories and trailing Toronto, Calgary, Saskatoon and other CDN cities in population growth:

http://www.rbc.com/economics/market/pdf/citytrend.pdf
again, cherry-picking stats.
For the first time in more than a decade our provincial net immigration is less than 0. A one time event is not a trend.
Also, you neglected to mention that we had,
"a gain of 12,281 individuals (0.27%) from April 1".
so our international net migration is still on pace for 45-50K/year.
Yet again vanpro, what is your motivation for minimizing the effects of international immigration?

Why the partisanship? It doesn't seem to me like VanPro is minimizing anything, he merely quoted what was presented in the central 1 report.

Its a simple question, with a simple answer...

Are we at the lowest immigration levels in decades. Yes.

Thats it... Who knows if this is a trend, one year does not make one.
Don't act like he's misrepresenting date that he clearly presents.

The only thing left to interpretation is what " a slow down in international immigration" will mean in the long term. Is this the start of a longer trend, or only a bump in the road.

As JH would say, instead of argufying everything, try to see both sides of the argument, not only the one that suits you.
 
User avatar
jesse1
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5097
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 12:51 pm
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Re: Going Going Gone

Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:24 am

Image

Image

Image

Image

Net migration is slower than it was in the past 7-8 years. That portends lower residential construction activity in the next 1-2 years. Hopefully the new $8BB shipping contract will fill in the gap.
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