Real Estate Talks

30% and 70% is more within the range of reasonable fundamentally based expectations. Toronto is already closing in on the lower number.

Let's see how much you truly believe that above...ill take a wager.
This is for city of Vancouver detached...and my bet is against. Timeframe of 3 years.

$500 on a 30% decline
$1000 on a 40% decline
$5000 on a 50% decline
$10,000 on a 60% decline
$50,000 on a 70% decline

We'll have Ozzie hold the money in trust as a neutral party.
Money, meet mouth.

And for Toronto, please provide a reference. I'd heard about falling sales, but not prices that steep

30% and 70% is more within the range of reasonable fundamentally based expectations. Toronto is already closing in on the lower number.

Let's see how much you truly believe that above...ill take a wager.
This is for city of Vancouver detached...and my bet is against. Timeframe of 3 years.

$500 on a 30% decline
$1000 on a 40% decline
$5000 on a 50% decline
$10,000 on a 60% decline
$50,000 on a 70% decline

We'll have Ozzie hold the money in trust as a neutral party.
Money, meet mouth.

And for Toronto, please provide a reference. I'd heard about falling sales, but not prices that steep

Talking is cheap.  Any bears dare to step forward to take on ETB?  

Plus you are old and going to die soon...you can't take it with you!!! 

Well that was uncalled for. You can tell when someone is really butt hurt. 

Hmmm that's your only comment, Its called a joke...I'm pretty sure Geyser can appreciate that, you can't take this Internet debating to seriously 

Plus you are old and going to die soon...you can't take it with you!!! 

Well that was uncalled for. You can tell when someone is really butt hurt. 

Hmmm that's your only comment, Its called a joke...I'm pretty sure Geyser can appreciate that, you can't take this Internet debating to seriously 

Thanks for your concern but VanLord is right, no offense taken by me, I'm a very pragmatic individual with a good sense of humour. 

Perhaps it's time to reveal some of my personal philosophy. It's completely off topic so disinterested readers should scroll to the next posting.

One old geezer's view of the world in the autumn of his life:

Death is not something to be feared, it's how you get there that should really concern you. I am quite comfortable knowing that I'm not immortal and my remaining time is somewhat limited. It's been an amazing party, for most of my life I have lived well, I have enjoyed my many years of retirement and I've done most of my bucket list (the Taylor Swift idea was never very realistic anyway ) so if I drop dead tomorrow I'm okay with that, so long as it's reasonably quick and doesn't hurt too much. Such is the comfort of atheism, it's hard to fear something which you know you won't be aware of.

I do feel a bit sorry for younger folks whose chances of living as long and as happily as I have are somewhat limited. I see an increasing polluted and overcrowded planet threatened by global warming, the proliferation of nuclear weapons technology and the even more chilling threats from artificial intelligence.   

The young are inheriting a world where modern communications have alerted the starving masses to the incredible inequality between first and third world countries. Europe is the first to have started feeling the effects of mass migration of desperate, poorly educated, angry hordes from Africa. How long before the Caribbean islanders and the Central and South American poor people catch on to the idea of moving north to claim their fair share? Quebec's current crisis might just be the tip of the iceberg.

Sorry to draw attention to such a grim looking future but it might help you all understand why I'm glad I was born when I was, even if it means my check-out time is getting closer. The thought of being 20 or 30, or even 40 or 50 years old today would terrify me. The world I enjoyed as a young adult was (at least for me) a much, much, nicer place than the one I see today.

Now that was a rant!  The chance of a 90% home price collapse may be the very least of our problems. 

If you're that old and the only solution you have for these high prices is Armageddon, then it's time to pack it in.
You've lost your ability to be creative.

Greater Toronto Area benchmark detached home prices peaked in April and have fallen 8 per cent since then. Home resales in the GTA have tumbled too, dropping 40 per cent in July compared with the same month last year.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/canada/non ... -1.3541706

Here ya go Geyser.
Again you're trying to sensationalize the housing market.
More wishful thinking than actual

???

"...Buyers who are unable to honour their deals or are turning to the sellers for help create “potential for a domino effect,” according to real estate lawyer Jason Gottlieb, who says he’s dealt with five similar cases in the last three months.
“I think that the buyers are finding it difficult to come up with the money that they went into the deal and priced the properties at.”
There are a number of factors being pointed to in explaining Toronto’s real estate shift, which saw the average cost of home (across all property types) drop from $920,791 in April to $746,218 in July – a $174,573 plunge.
It’s believed many sellers, sensing a peak in prices in the spring, jumped in to sell their house. As well, an interest rate increase in July may be impacting the ability of some buyers to get the financing they expected..."

If you're that old and the only solution you have for these high prices is Armageddon, then it's time to pack it in.
You've lost your ability to be creative.

Cognition ETB, cognition. Re-read what I posted. 

I specifically mentioned previous home price collapses which occurred without any accompanying Armageddon, just a lot of massive debt for many and bankruptcies for the most highly leveraged. Meanwhile the rest of us carried on much as usual because our home values had spiked before they collapsed back to historical norms. It was hard to get too upset over losing equity which you only ever had on paper.  The serious damage was limited to those who arrived late at the party.

Anybody who's been around long enough knows that real estate markets always, always, move in cycles. Boom is usually followed by bust which is usually followed by decades of price stagnation. Usually, the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust and we appear to be overdue for a big one.

The historic relationships between prices, rents and incomes has always reimposed itself and will do so again. Only the timing is in question.

If being "creative" requires ignoring history and imagining that "it's different this time", then I never had the ability to be "creative".

Greater Toronto Area benchmark detached home prices peaked in April and have fallen 8 per cent since then. Home resales in the GTA have tumbled too, dropping 40 per cent in July compared with the same month last year.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/canada/non ... -1.3541706

Here ya go Geyser.
Again you're trying to sensationalize the housing market.
More wishful thinking than actual

I followed your link expecting to find some lame and misleading rebuttal to the falling numbers. Instead I found this paragraph: 

"There are a number of factors being pointed to in explaining Toronto’s real estate shift, which saw the average cost of home (across all property types) drop from $920,791 in April to $746,218 in July – a $174,573 plunge."


Buying a house in April for $920,791 and selling it in July for $174,573 less than you paid, (plus paying all the in and out costs) means the average "20% down" buyer just got wiped out and, according to your link, there's more pain to come.  How does my earlier post "sensationalize" what's actually happening? 

BTW, did you Google "percentage return on investment" yet? It appears you really need to.

30% and 70% is more within the range of reasonable fundamentally based expectations. Toronto is already closing in on the lower number.

Let's see how much you truly believe that above...ill take a wager.
This is for city of Vancouver detached...and my bet is against. Timeframe of 3 years.

$500 on a 30% decline
$1000 on a 40% decline
$5000 on a 50% decline
$10,000 on a 60% decline
$50,000 on a 70% decline

We'll have Ozzie hold the money in trust as a neutral party.
Money, meet mouth.

And for Toronto, please provide a reference. I'd heard about falling sales, but not prices that steep

So I guess you're not too confident in your prediction Geyser.
If 30-70% decline is likely, just pick a number in the middle.
You're dodging.

It does seem likely to me that a correction of somewhere between 30% and 70%

30% and 70% is more within the range of reasonable fundamentally based expectations. Toronto is already closing in on the lower number.

Let's see how much you truly believe that above...ill take a wager.
This is for city of Vancouver detached...and my bet is against. Timeframe of 3 years.

$500 on a 30% decline
$1000 on a 40% decline
$5000 on a 50% decline
$10,000 on a 60% decline
$50,000 on a 70% decline

We'll have Ozzie hold the money in trust as a neutral party.
Money, meet mouth.

And for Toronto, please provide a reference. I'd heard about falling sales, but not prices that steep

So I guess you're not too confident in your prediction Geyser.
If 30-70% decline is likely, just pick a number in the middle.
You're dodging.

It does seem likely to me that a correction of somewhere between 30% and 70%

Still avoiding the "percentage return on investment" issue I see.

As for your wager, I've already put my money where my mouth is by taking almost half of my money off the table (admittedly too early). I already placed my bet when I did that and I'm still anticipating that hindsight will eventually prove me right, it's only the timing which remains uncertain. 

Now how about you putting your money where your mouth is and instead of taking a HELOC for up to $50K to place a foolhardy bet with me, use it as a down payment on a pre-sale?

Finally, because you are a heavily mortgaged government employee with a wife and children, I seriously doubt your ability to comfortably manage a loss of up to $50K and, in that worst case scenario, I would feel very guilty to see you and your family financially devastated by losing another $50K on top of seeing 70% of your equity gone, your home being repossessed and the bank going after you for the underwater amount. Frankly, your mortgage, work, and family situation tells me that I would feel very guilty to even take a few hundred dollars from you.

What kind of a monster do you think I am? I'm certainly not the kind of person to take the food out of the mouths of the children of a headstrong and delusional parent.

Now about that "percentage return" issue, did you Google it yet?

Lol
That's what I thought Geyser.
Your confidence in your prediction just went out the window like that fly I was chasing around with a swatter

Lol
That's what I thought Geyser.
Your confidence in your prediction just went out the window like that fly I was chasing around with a swatter

Once again you either failed to read my post or you deliberately misunderstood it. Try re-reading it.

I lack confidence in your ability to borrow and repay the money for a foolish wager, and my conscience prevents me from cleaning you out. I don't like seeing children going without shoes because daddy was a foolish and overconfident gambler.

My very big bet was placed a couple of years ago when I substantially reduced my exposure and so far it's been negative, but it's a long-term play, trying to precisely time the top is a mug's game. Getting a chunk of money off the table too early sure beats panic selling during a massive price collapse. Ask anybody who tried to sell in 1982.

 I'm holding fast in the belief that only an idiot would buy back in at today's inflated prices and my seemingly premature sales will eventually prove to have been a good move. The additional profit I could have made by waiting until now was a fair price for insurance against being "all-in" when the big one hits.

While you remain all-in on your risky bet of no huge price collapse, I've hedged my bets against my forecast being wrong by keeping one foot in the market. You have your entire equity at risk on one side of the board, that is not smart for a young and heavily endebted government worker with a wife and family. You are rolling the dice in an increasingly high-risk gamble with your family's future.

Now how about explaining to us all why you thought that a small percentage return on investments is better than a much larger percentage return. Your logic is always amusing.

What a flake

Facts....

Biggest drop in benchmark Canada -wide since 2009. In fact, the only substantial drop since 2009...

"Canadian Home Prices Tumble the Most Since 2008 Recession"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... on-toronto