Latest Stats: Fraser Valley/Vancouver ... updated monthly

[news]

Market Analysis

Current Fraser Valley market stats (Fraser Valley Real Estate Board)

News & Statistics (Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver)

Current Victoria stats (Victoria Real Estate Board)

Current Vancouver Island stats (Vancouver Island Real Estate Board)

See a complete list of BC real estate boards in British Columbia for more stats.

[betamax]

'Balance' is the buzzword analysts use when market supply comes closer to meeting market demand

It was also the buzzword much used by NAR last year in the US, just before the market raced right past 'balanced' and went into 'meltdown'.

But that can't happen here...

[dot com refugee]

Inventory is at a ten year high in the valley!

[yoinky]

The FVREB put their April stats on their website, even though they haven't officially announced it or put out the press release, if you put in this direct URL you can download it:

http://www.fvreb.bc.ca/statistics/Package%20200804.pdf

[yogurt]

Higher number of homes on the market means buyers can take more time, realtor says

Yes I'll agree with that one. Like about three years more time.

[rossco]

Yes I'll agree with that one. Like about three years more time

this is only my feeling about this wild isolated market situation ..i think we are at the top now...the price drop ? i think we will start seeing it soon but the drop might be slow because the banks will drop there rates to all time lows to help from ending up owning everything .the majority of the population in Canada is living in a hurting economy so interest rates will have to stay low and should go even lower .. but this time they wont drop to allow an increase in lower mainland house price's they will slow the adjustment we are waiting for down .. if we saw an increase in intrest rates right now this bubble would burst ...i dont know exactly why i feel its over but i am surprised i havent seen things comming down a lot more this month ..

[grantness]

Banks do not set mortgage rates. It is investors who set rates. And investors do not care about helping people buy homes... they want a return that justifies their risk.

The BOC sets variable rates. Their explicit goal is to control inflation. You may think that Canada has a "hurting" economy (i disagree) but even though that is one factor that affects inflation predictions, it's possible (and happens regularly) that rates go up even while the economy is "hurting".

Yes the initial price drop will be shallow, but if the experience in the biggest 12 US cities is any indicator, those shallow price drops will fall off a cliff after half a year once public perception shifts from "wow how high can real estate prices go?" to "wow how LOW can real estate prices go?"

[silverman]

The BOC sets variable rates. Their explicit goal is to control inflation.

Yes in theory, not in practice. The BOC will not raise rates substantially before a federal election... regardless of where inflation stands. Rates will stay low (even artificially low) ... and real estate prices won't do too bad for the time being. But after the election, sometime in the fall probably, it will be a different story.

[OneSource]

PRESS RELEASES
MARKET SHIFTS TO FAVOUR FRASER VALLEY BUYERS
July 3, 2008

(Surrey, BC) –Recent sales data from the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board’s Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) indicates that Fraser Valley’s real estate market is changing to favour the buyer. Sales continue to decrease and benchmark prices for residential homes in most Fraser Valley communities are moderating, in some areas trending down slightly since March.

The Board posted 1,418 sales in June reflecting a decrease of 31 per cent compared to the 2.053 sales processed on the MLS® during June of last year. The Board received 3,236 new listings in June, taking the number of active listings to 11,295, an increase of 47 per cent compared to the 7,676 listings available during June 2007.

“Real estate is cyclical and the numbers show that we’ve entered a buyer’s cycle,” explains Kelvin Neufeld, president of the Board. “Where appropriate, REALTORS® are recommending their sellers sharpen their prices, in particular for higher-end properties. On the other hand, there’s still a steady appetite for mid-range properties priced competitively. Our average days-to-sell in June for single family homes was only six days more than last year indicating that when buyers see an opportunity, they act.”

The average price of a single family detached home in the Fraser Valley increased by 6.1 per cent, going from $529,678 in June 2007 to $561,771 last month. Townhomes went for an average $337,054 in June, an increase of 4.8 per cent compared to the same month last year when they averaged $321,614 and the average price of an apartment in June was $237,155, an increase of 7.8 per cent compared to $219,935 last year.

While average prices year over year continue to rise, the benchmark price or the price of a “typical” home across a number of Fraser Valley communities reveals price fluctuations for the last three months ranging from a .3 per cent decrease for single family detached, a .4 per cent increase for apartments, to a 1.6 per cent increase for townhomes.

Neufeld says, “We’re experiencing a soft landing coming off the strongest and longest real estate cycle in our history. For those who don’t remember selling a home in a normal competitive market, it’s essential to work with a real estate professional who knows how to establish the right price for your property. Everything matters now: your neighbourhood, your property type, your home’s appearance and thorough marketing.”

[grantness]

The BOC sets variable rates. Their explicit goal is to control inflation.

Yes in theory, not in practice. The BOC will not raise rates substantially before a federal election... regardless of where inflation stands. Rates will stay low (even artificially low) ... and real estate prices won't do too bad for the time being. But after the election, sometime in the fall probably, it will be a different story.

I don't know what you mean by "in theory". CPI has never exceeded the target range since 1992, which was pretty much when inflation targetting was started by the BOC. http://www40.statcan.ca/l01/cst01/econ46a.htm .

If you're saying the BOC deliberately ignores their mandate for political purposes, would you care to show your research to support that?
....
Regardless, even if you're right, it doesn't change the fact that it's investors who set (fixed) mortgage rates, not banks.

[Detective]

So I would just like to know one thing. Why do we keep comparing this market to the US? I understand, and I agree, that we are at the top of this RE cycle and on the way down...but I see little to no direct symmetry in the two markets. Yes, both had unprecedented climbs and over supplied markets which tip the boulder down the hill. So there's too much building and not enough buyers...but then the US foreclosures and FAR more risky loans compared to anything in canada put more bank owned inventory on the market...which then in turn has put these banks and investors into large financial loss which then tightens credit. So all three of these factors have contributed to the massive economic downturn in the US. Is there someone here that seriously beleives that is something that is going to happen here also? Downturn and price reduction absolutely...and deeper than the last time (-15%) in late 80's yep for sure...a loss like the US absolutely no.

Then again, there are people on this board that think the september 11th attacks were planned by bush and greenspan was used as a pawn to lower interest rates and create a real estate boom...

P.S. out of curiousity...is there anyone in here that thinks if you are an american and you can actually hold on to your property right now that in 10 years they are still going to have neg equity in that house?

[betamax]

then the US foreclosures and FAR more risky loans compared to anything in canada

You're putting the cart before the horse. A falling market caused loan defaults, not vice versa.

Then again, there are people on this board that think the september 11th attacks were planned

A rhetorical red herring is a poor substitute for a logical argument; I can only presume you have none.

in 10 years they are still going to have neg equity in that house?

edit: "neg equity" refers to market value vs. mortgage owed. I assume you instead mean how the price they paid will compare with market value 10 yrs hence.

In real terms, not necessarily nominal, anyone who purchased in the last several years (i.e. at or near peak) will have paid more than the market value of the house in 10 years. You're not much of a detective; do some research on past housing busts.

[Detective]

fair enough...so please enlighten me with your numbers and analysis which backs up your theory that in exactly ten years anyone who purchased in 2008 will have still bought for more money than the current market price in 2018.

Please also attach said graph which shows any ten year period where the average price has not increased from any peak period.

[betamax]

fair enough...so please enlighten me with your numbers and analysis which backs up your theory that in exactly ten years anyone who purchased in 2008 will have still bought for more money than the current market price in 2018.

Please also attach said graph which shows any ten year period where the average price has not increased from any peak period.

I just saw your post now...sorry for delay in answering.

Numbers and analysis: it's all been discussed here ad nauseum: dislocation of prices to rents, cheap & easy credit, affordability stretched to limits, high personal indebtedness, demand stolen from the future, rapidly increasing supply, etc, etc, all suggest a correction is due. Housing downturns historically take years to hit bottom, where they languish for years more before rising again.

The current economy is so clearly propped up by RE/construction that the housing correction will precipitate a general recession, which in turn deepens and lengthens the correction, which deepens and lengthens the recession, and so on. Virtuous cycle becomes vicious. Ergo, the coming correction should be similar in extent to that of '81, if not considerably worse.

As you can see from the graph, real prices took almost 25 years to bounce back from the previous peak in '81:

http://cuer.sauder.ubc.ca/cma/data/Hous ... couver.pdf

[reefmonger]

what goes up must come down, dont be under it when it does!