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eyesthebye2
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Immigration has undoubtedly escalated housing prices in Vancouver, Toronto

Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:50 pm

How many year have I been beating this drum?

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columni ... says-study

There is no doubt Canada’s high immigration rates have a major impact on housing affordability in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal, according to a new study.

“First and foremost, immigration policy is, essentially, also a form of housing policy,” University of B.C. geographer Daniel Hiebert says in a comprehensive paper published in the winter edition of the Canadian Journal of Urban Research.

“Metropolitan housing in Canada would, very likely, look totally different if the scale of immigration were to change dramatically in either direction. The recent decision to raise permanent immigration admission levels from approximately 270,000 in 2015 to 340,000 in 2020 will surely have a significant impact,” Hiebert said.

Most immigrants show greater determination than Canadian-born citizens to buy housing in Canada’s three major cities, said Hiebert, who also studied buying and renting patterns along ethnic lines.

The elevated home-ownership rate among ethnic Chinese immigrants in the expensive cities of Vancouver and Toronto is “striking,” Hiebert said.

“The rate of home ownership among individuals declaring Chinese origins is exceptionally high for newcomers: Over seven in 10 of those who arrived in Canada between 2006 and 2011 reside in households that own a home,” he said.

The discovery that most new Chinese immigrants can afford to buy housing within a few years of arriving in Canada — at a rate higher than the overall Vancouver average of 69 per cent — supports numerous reports that have indicated many new immigrants from East Asia are making their purchases with large amounts of capital earned in their homelands.

Recent Chinese immigrants to Toronto and Vancouver have a home-ownership rate of nearly 73 per cent “and a propensity to dedicate a very high portion of their income to housing. Given the scale of immigration of individuals from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to Vancouver, it is likely that this group is having an impact on the metropolitan housing market as a whole.”

The peer-reviewed study by Hiebert, who frequently advises the federal government, enhances earlier research by UBC geographer David Ley, as well as the Conference Board of Canada, that has shown a strong correlation between rapid immigration and pricey housing in Metro Vancouver and Toronto.

Hiebert’s analysis of decades of Statistics Canada data confirmed two contrasting narratives about immigrants and housing — that well-off immigrants are increasing housing prices in Canada’s major cities, at the same time lower-income immigrants are struggling to pay for shelter.

The trend that sees most immigrants moving rapidly into home ownership “undoubtedly has had an impact on the escalation in the price of housing in Toronto and Vancouver and has brought a sense of vibrancy to those markets,” Hiebert said.

“At the same time, though, hundreds of thousands of immigrants and members of visible-minority groups struggle to meet their housing payments or to pay their rent.”

One result Hiebert found especially surprising is that refugees who had been in the country more than two decades prior to 2011 have a home ownership rate that is generally the same or higher than average. “The majority of refugees are able to thrive in even the most expensive housing markets of the country.”

Broadly speaking, however, Hiebert’s research magnifies ongoing anxiety about rising housing costs for residents of Metro Vancouver, which Demographia ranks among the three most unaffordable cities out of more than 400 surveyed in Europe, North America and Asia.

Since Metro Vancouver has the most expensive housing in Canada, Hiebert said “it is not surprising that individuals in Metro Vancouver are under the most pressure in the housing market, with three in 10 spending more than 30 per cent of their gross income on shelter (followed by Toronto at 27.6 per cent and Montreal at 21.8 per cent.)”

When analyzing buying trends by ethnicity, Hiebert found that Caucasians in Metro Vancouver had an average home ownership rate of 67 per cent, which is lower than the visible-minority ownership rate of 72 per cent.

The city’s two largest visible-minority groups are the most likely to own homes in Metro Vancouver and Toronto.

More than 81 per cent of ethnic Chinese in Metro Vancouver, a total of 233,000 adults, live in owned homes. The proportion for South Asians is 75 per cent, with more than 121,000 South Asians over age 18 living in owned households.

Filipinos and South Koreans in Vancouver had modest home ownership rates of 61 per cent, while Latin Americans and blacks were at 46 per cent. Arabs, a small group, were lowest at 37 per cent.

The groups facing the most financial difficulties in securing housing in Canada’s three major cities are Koreans, West Asians (mostly Iranians) and Arabs, many of whom are in “precarious” rental situations.

Meanwhile, Hiebert said the “visible minority group with the least financial pressure, Filipinos, is not especially prone to home ownership.”

One of the recommendations Hiebert makes is that federal and provincial governments “expand the stock of subsidized housing … to support the process of newcomer integration.”
 
yzfr1
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Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:35 pm

Re: Immigration has undoubtedly escalated housing prices in Vancouver, Toronto

Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:20 am

Lol it took such a in-depth study to observe the obvious? If it was cheap credit and low interest rates / speculation that caused the hosing price increase you would have seen bubbles formed all across Canada. The interest rate is set federally and the money supply can flow freely across the provinces. But you need to look at the demographics.

Everyone thinks that all immigrants are just un educated rich corrupt Chinese business men here to launder their money. Though I don’t deny there is cases exist. The immigration process to Canada is actually quite rigorous. Post secondary education, professional work experience and medical screening are just some of the hurdles one must comply with to come to Canada.

To help make sense of the current housing prices you need to understand Asian culture and mentality. Look at picture I attached from stats-can.

Image


Bitcoin is a bubble, and the recent 20% correction already showed that. You can get in cheap and speculate. You can’t do that with Vancouver real estate. You can’t show up with zero down and gamble.

I don’t know what will happen in the future, it may go up or it may go down.

All I can say is the real losers are the people who held out from buying because they thought they were so smart to try and time the market.

This is called the dead zone now, the market is moving sideways... not going up or down, a state of limbo. People who bought can enjoy their homes and pay down their mortgage. Renters are stressing out with no certainty... its been 10 years since 2008... time in life that has been wasted not building equity or moving forward in life.


http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/politics/ca ... -1.4456879

Huge spike in citizenship applications,

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/immigra ... -1.4371146

Canada is brining in 1,000,000 - that’s 1 million new immigrants in the next 3 years. Again, I’m not sure where prices are going but.... 1 million.
 
reallyreal2
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Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:30 am

Re: Immigration has undoubtedly escalated housing prices in Vancouver, Toronto

Thu Dec 28, 2017 6:46 pm

Immigration is only a quarter of the puzzle.

The majority of the puzzle has to do with the class of immigrants coming here and their ability to circumvent our laws.

Bitcoin is here to stay - those that think otherwise will miss an opportunity as big as buying Vancouver RE in 2005. And probably be crying bubble the entire time.

Wasn’t ETB2 the one insisting that stocks are a bubble and going to crash - I get an update from Bloomberg every week or so telling me stocks are at all time high. My thinking is ETB2 closes their eyes, throws a dart and then won’t shut up about the one that hit the board while not noticing the 4 darts putting holes in the wood panelling behind the board
 
yzfr1
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 278
Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:35 pm

Re: Immigration has undoubtedly escalated housing prices in Vancouver, Toronto

Thu Dec 28, 2017 7:22 pm

reallyreal2 wrote:
Immigration is only a quarter of the puzzle.

The majority of the puzzle has to do with the class of immigrants coming here and their ability to circumvent our laws.

Bitcoin is here to stay - those that think otherwise will miss an opportunity as big as buying Vancouver RE in 2005.   And probably be crying bubble the entire time.

Wasn’t ETB2 the one insisting that stocks are a bubble and going to crash - I get an update from Bloomberg every week or so telling me stocks are at all time high.  My thinking is ETB2 closes their eyes, throws a dart and then won’t shut up about the one that hit the board while not noticing the 4 darts putting holes in the wood panelling behind the board

Bitcoin uses block chain technology, bitcoin just happens to be the most popular "brand" of crypto currency. There are hundreds of them, none of them have any official backing other then investor confidence.
http://fortune.com/2017/12/28/ripple-price-bitcoin/
Korea already taking steps to ban exchanges... I always believed that Bitcoin will be crushed not by the bubble bursting but regulation from the government. Why would uncle Sam let people get away with all this money circulation without getting their %. Probably how the whole bitcoin craze gets fizzled out is US and A will come in outlaw all crypto currencies and use the block chain and issue their own.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act - In 1934 Franklin D. Roosevelt outlawed all gold in possession by private citizens and the treasury took all of it. 
Not hard to believe the same thing can happen to bitcoin.
BTW though I don't believe the long term existence of bitcoin (not block chain) savvy investors have made a nice return. You gamble big, you win big. Cudos to investors who saw bitcoin as a investment. I've been tracking it since it was $400 and I can say I missed out. 
 
eyesthebye2
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Topic Author
Posts: 1183
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am

Re: Immigration has undoubtedly escalated housing prices in Vancouver, Toronto

Thu Dec 28, 2017 10:40 pm

No man, immigration is 90% of the puzzle.
That's why I'm confident there can be no sustained downturn in the Vacouver and Toronto markets.
We are the 2 top destinations for over 300,000 immigrants per year.
If immigration policy changes then I'll change my position.
 
VanBullBear
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 71
Joined: Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:21 pm

Re: Immigration has undoubtedly escalated housing prices in Vancouver, Toronto

Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:55 pm

Wow you guys are so smart with your investments, I especially love the risk management!
All this is hindsight and speculation on the reason behind the price movement.
To sum up the driving force into 1 variable such as immigration is grossly oversimplified. Everyone is a genius in these forums lol.
By the way bitcoin is going through a correction or what you may call consolidation.t This happens after every big price move.
 
eyesthebye2
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 1183
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am

Re: Immigration has undoubtedly escalated housing prices in Vancouver, Toronto

Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:19 pm

To an outsider it looks like an investment, because the return has been fantastic. But it's just my home, that's all bud

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