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jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5427
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: Hi Everybody!!

Wed Jun 21, 2017 7:39 pm

thompson2 wrote:
semven wrote:
You can be a "Bear" and both sell and re enter the Market.

Agreed. but at the end of day, jim has to account all the coins he got in his pocket to see if he is a winner or loser by timing market. 
Vancouver condo prices increasing over 2% per month since Jan 2017, it is not a good news for him. :P

I have plenty of spare change, and Semven is smarter than you.
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eyesthebye2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1163
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am

Re: Hi Everybody!!

Wed Jun 21, 2017 8:45 pm

jimtan wrote:
For those who aren't cheerleaders, the numbers matter...

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... will-burst


Look at the divergence in real RE prices (chart below) between USA and Canada after 2009. Look at the last steep spurt in 2015-16. That's me selling my False Creek apartment.

For those who actually ask difficult questions, measure the ratio of the spikes in 1982 and 1991 against the base. Then, measure the spike from 2001 to 2017. Spectacular? That's the extraordinary loose monetary policy that's going to end. That's ETB's paper million.

AS the author (Ben Carlson concluded...

"The problem is that the home-buying experience is fraught with emotion. People rarely think about the characteristics of real estate as an investment when putting down roots and making the biggest purchase of their life. Once the herd mentality sets in these things take on a life of their own. In downtown Toronto, the average sale price of a detached home this spring was $1.2 million.

No one knows when insanity like this will come to an end. Bubbles are like an avalanche. The longer they build up, the worse they will be when they eventually destabilize.

The same is true of financial markets. No one really knows when or why bubbles come to an end, but eventually people come to their senses and the music stops. U.S. homeowners understand all too well what can happen to the economy when the housing market destabilizes. The timing is impossible to predict, but Canadians should be on avalanche alert."


But how could that be? You said low interest rates were to blame for higher prices. The rates in the US are at least as low as Canada.
Maybe it's the immigration policies. Take another look at it.
 
yzfr1
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 264
Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:35 pm

Re: Hi Everybody!!

Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:12 pm

eyesthebye2 wrote:
jimtan wrote:
For those who aren't cheerleaders, the numbers matter...

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... will-burst


Look at the divergence in real RE prices (chart below) between USA and Canada after 2009. Look at the last steep spurt in 2015-16. That's me selling my False Creek apartment.

For those who actually ask difficult questions, measure the ratio of the spikes in 1982 and 1991 against the base. Then, measure the spike from 2001 to 2017. Spectacular? That's the extraordinary loose monetary policy that's going to end. That's ETB's paper million.

AS the author (Ben Carlson concluded...

"The problem is that the home-buying experience is fraught with emotion. People rarely think about the characteristics of real estate as an investment when putting down roots and making the biggest purchase of their life. Once the herd mentality sets in these things take on a life of their own. In downtown Toronto, the average sale price of a detached home this spring was $1.2 million.

No one knows when insanity like this will come to an end. Bubbles are like an avalanche. The longer they build up, the worse they will be when they eventually destabilize.

The same is true of financial markets. No one really knows when or why bubbles come to an end, but eventually people come to their senses and the music stops. U.S. homeowners understand all too well what can happen to the economy when the housing market destabilizes. The timing is impossible to predict, but Canadians should be on avalanche alert."


But how could that be? You said low interest rates were to blame for higher prices. The rates in the US are at least as low as Canada.
Maybe it's the immigration policies. Take another look at it.

Canada is only 35 million people, America has over 320 million people. Chinese money is flowing into America as well. Hot money tends to flow to certain locations like Vancouver, Toronto... money isn't going to Yukon or PEI. Same as America, hot money is heading into certain parts of California, Palo Alto, Orange county, NYC ect. It's not flowing into Fynt Michigan or the rust belt. Canada is like a cup of water, a few spoon full of hot water can change the average temperate to a larger degree then America, they have so many more cities in the middle that drag down the average costs of homes. When a huge splash of hot money falls into the swimming pool size housing market, the numbers are easily absorbed and not noticed.
Thats why looking at all these divergence charts is bullshit.
Also people who think interest rates are going to crash the market like the Americans in 2008 are uninformed. It was predatory loaning, and "teaser" ARM rates that helped crash the market. 
 
eyesthebye2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1163
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am

Re: Hi Everybody!!

Wed Jun 21, 2017 9:31 pm

I know that yzfr.
If you look back many years at my comments you'll see that I explained the difference between demand in each country. In Canada, buyers are wanting to live in 5 cities only. In the US there is demand from dozens of markets. That concentrated demand creates a hyper inflation in prices.
 
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semven
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 2596
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2008 7:25 pm
Location: If you Rent it you are still payin for it...

Re: Hi Everybody!!

Thu Jun 22, 2017 10:10 am

jimtan wrote:
thompson2 wrote:
semven wrote:
You can be a "Bear" and both sell and re enter the Market.

Agreed. but at the end of day, jim has to account all the coins he got in his pocket to see if he is a winner or loser by timing market.
Vancouver condo prices increasing over 2% per month since Jan 2017, it is not a good news for him. :P

I have plenty of spare change, and Semven is smarter than you.

Actually No...I`m not.
You can see from my OP that once I cottoned on to the fact that Plural Condos were a better investment than buying a house I assumed someone like Thompson must already be into it.
Sure enough....He was

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