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yzfr1
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 274
Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:35 pm

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 7:33 am

westcoastfella wrote:
This article calculates global QE at 12 trillion, since 2008, so he's not far off.  The US was not the only country to flood the market with money...

If Jim has chosen to be cash rich, I assume its because he's hedging his bets on a significant drop in housing and/or financial markets - there is simply no other reason to allow your assets to waste away to inflation.  This does not make Jim stupid, and whether his bet pans out remains to be seen - Jim may have the last laugh in the long run.  I know a few people that sold all their financial assets and went to cash in 2012, 2013, 2014 and so on, thinking the top was in and the next depression was nearly upon us.  Instead they missed out on some great market gains, and are either grudgingly reinvesting or continuing to wait out.  But who knows what the future will bring.



#1 hes not cash rich, he had a condo. Yet he claims he has a E550 and travels so much he claims to have diamond travel rewards card or some Sears loyalty card or some crap.

#2 he himself claims after selling his primary condo, he purchased another 1 bedroom presale to live in.

#3 hes proved time again he dosent know shit about economics or finance. As I just posted a rebuttal to his Quantative Easing bullshit.

#4 Selling all your assets into a cash position is called a naked short. It's not hedging, hedging would indicate he would have a opposite position. Selling everything into cash including your primary residence is called stupid and trying to time the market. Rule #1 in investments is NEVER try to time the market.


If he had a primary residence and he sold his rental property to "hedge" against a crash that would be fine. But this clown time in and time out has made it clear, he sold in order for a crash to occur so he can buy back in.

I'm telling you guys right now, its a simple supply and demand at the moment. It's not complicated and its not a conspiracy.

When there reaches a saturation point where everyone who needs a house and OR who can afford one is met. Then the prices will correct.
 
reallyreal2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 687
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:30 am

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 8:52 am

eyesthebye2 wrote:
If QE was real in Canada an the reason for housing prices to go up, it would be across the board in Canada


This is exactly my point about interest rates. If low rates created the increase in values in Vancouver and Toronto, why did it not bring up values in most other locales? Are interest rates higher in Winnipeg, London, Quebec City, Halifax etc.?

Because those places don't have a corrupt government that turns a blind eye to anything that will increase property values.
Sprinkle in a little ponzi scheme mentality and people actually believe that the market can go nowhere but up to infinity. LOL.  Yet not one of those people that are talking about the market going up has purchased a 2nd property so even they don't believe their own BS.

LOL
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:09 pm

reallyreal2 wrote:
eyesthebye2 wrote:
If QE was real in Canada an the reason for housing prices to go up, it would be across the board in Canada


This is exactly my point about interest rates. If low rates created the increase in values in Vancouver and Toronto, why did it not bring up values in most other locales? Are interest rates higher in Winnipeg, London, Quebec City, Halifax etc.?

Because those places don't have a corrupt government that turns a blind eye to anything that will increase property values.
Sprinkle in a little ponzi scheme mentality and people actually believe that the market can go nowhere but up to infinity. LOL.  Yet not one of those people that are talking about the market going up has purchased a 2nd property so even they don't believe their own BS.

LOL

try to actually learn something. with the limited land and 30,000 people a year coming, vancouver is going to the moon!
 
reallyreal2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 687
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:30 am

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:18 pm

LOL - I am certain a rate increase will have no harm to Vancouver RE.

Most of these people can't cobble together a downpayment and are forced to use shadow lenders who charge 12% + fees for short term loans.  But hey, no problem, they can handle a 1% rate increase no problem.  LOL.

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news ... in-the-red

All this wealth yet still required to go high ratio.  LOL
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 3:20 pm

Things here are different. Its a new normal. Its different this time. The majority of citizens with a job and decent credit can buy a place within their means and shrug off an interest change. To the moon!
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 5440
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:17 pm

yzfr1 wrote:
It will hurt first time home buyers, young families who scraped by to get into their first condo. Families that borrowed their own down payment from Christy Clark.

Interest rate hike wont have the desired effect of cooling off hot money like people think. It will just wind up screwing up the vunlerable.

Listen to the hypocrite. He was go-go when RE prices rose by 20% a year. Now, he suddenly feels concern for first time buyers.  :roll:

Fact is that interest rates have bottomed out. So, the only way to improve affordability is for prices to go down. What's a 20% fall in RE prices worth in terms of higher interest rates? Assuming amortization over 20 years.

I suggest that you stop behaving like a troll. Do the break-even numbers. Don't come back before you understand the equation.  :!:
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:23 pm

Quite sure interest rates haven't reached bottom
 
VanLord
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 288
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:52 pm

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:37 pm

https://www.biv.com/article/2017/6/rate ... nada-post/

Doesn't look like BOC needs to raise interest rates anytime soon
 
reallyreal2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 687
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:30 am

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Wed Jun 28, 2017 7:58 am

Remember what the BOC head said a couple of weeks ago, they are planning ahead and not looking behind.  The rate hike is coming no matter how much everybody doesn't want it to come or thinks that it won't happen.

Just as I write the above sentence, I do a quick google search:

http://business.financialpost.com/news/ ... 3d41eea333

Wow - "done their job".   Sure sounds like past tense to me.
 
yzfr1
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 274
Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:35 pm

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:32 am

Image
Image



In 2008 when the market fell into a pit and then found its second wind. Those buyers are coming up to their 10th year into their mortage.

If they borrowed $450,000, they would have built up $188,972 in equity in repayments alone. Not to mention the equity they built up in housing appreciation.

Every year the market dosent crash the more buffer there is against a crash. Anyone who is worried that people cant make payments due to a 1% rise in interest rates is sadly mistaken.
 
reallyreal2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 687
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:30 am

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:56 am

http://www.news1130.com/2017/06/20/pote ... canadians/

I wonder where people in Canada are stretched to make mortgage payments the most?  LOL...hmmmmmm....  :lol:
 
reallyreal2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 687
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:30 am

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Wed Jun 28, 2017 12:00 pm

 
VanLord
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 288
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:52 pm

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Wed Jun 28, 2017 10:29 pm

reallyreal2 wrote:
http://www.vancouversun.com/canada+long+ride+with+rock+bottom+interest+rates+appears+ending/13570331/story.html

That article is a bit misleading, sure they are going to need to pull back from current lows, but there isn't going to be pressure to keep raising rates, based on inflation numbers.  Lets hope they do keep raising rates, as again it means the economy is picking up steam.  BMO sure hopes they raise rates cuz it means more profits for them.  I'll be happy to see my bank stocks getting a boost.
 
eyesthebye2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1170
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Fri Jun 30, 2017 12:07 pm

yzfr1 wrote:
jimtan wrote:
eyesthebye2 wrote:

Vancouver market is driven by wealth, not incomes. Big difference. Raising rates will put locals on the sidelines while foreigners continue to buy. The opposite of what they want (so they say).

I'm sorry my dear. The mass majority of sales are bought by locals (wage slaves). I see no evidence after the imposition of the foreigners tax of foreign buying. If the foreigners are not buying in West Vancouver and Vancouver West, then they won't be buying in the rest of metro. Yes?  :?:



Take a minute to think about what you posted. The graph is of Vancouver west, the average sale price was 3 million + . Again using some common sense, 1 million down payment and 2 million mortage? So a wage slave can make $10,000 monthly mortage payments?

ETB is right, no one is buying million dollar homes on wages. Its wealth from parents or some sort of inheritance.

Foreigners have stoped buying, but Canadians of foreign birth continue to buy. Its not just foreign Chinese buying, Chinese Canadian citizens with $ are buying.

it's a silly statement from jimtan - especially about the west side where the vast majority of purchases the last 8 years have been from foreign buyers. 
By saying "wage slaves" are the majority of purchases is like saying that no-one has, or is bringing equity to their next purchase. He's trying to sensationalize the argument.
For example, I brought 10% equity to my first purchase. My next purchase can be 1.4M and I'll be bringing 100% equity. a purchase of 1.8M and I bring 78% equity. For Jimtan's definition, I am one of the wage slaves he's referring to.
Grasping at straws at the point.
 
reallyreal2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 687
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:30 am

Re: Are interest rates finally going to rise?

Fri Jun 30, 2017 1:24 pm

That's great for you....

Problem is many people have bought recently and stretched to do so.  Many people bought presales with price gains baked in and have to close on higher rates than expected.

It is the margins where people get killed, not the people that are in the market for years - well maybe they are because Alpine Credits and Capital Direct are advertising non-stop so there are probably that many more that took out additional loans against their property.

Typical ETB though... only see the first step on a stairwell and can't imagine there might be another step, nevermind another flight of stairs.
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