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jimtan
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Medium Term risks?

Fri May 12, 2017 6:55 am

In the post-election world, let's look at some of the domestic and international risks.

The biggest domestic risk is the doubling of mortgage debt in just the last 10 years. As detailed by Steve here...

"How the Big Banks Have Created a Debt Monster"

http://vancitycondoguide.com/risk-on/




Credit ratings drop here ...


"Loonie, Bank Bonds Drop as Moody's Downgrades Canada Lenders"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ebt-burden
 
tdma800
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Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Medium Term risks?

Fri May 12, 2017 6:56 am

^--- irrelevant - plonk
 
VanLord
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Posts: 288
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:52 pm

Re: Medium Term risks?

Fri May 12, 2017 7:05 am

jimtan wrote:
In the post-election world, let's look at some of the domestic and international risks.

The biggest domestic risk is the doubling of mortgage debt in just the last 10 years. As detailed by Steve here...

"How the Big Banks Have Created a Debt Monster"

http://vancitycondoguide.com/risk-on/




Credit ratings drop here ...


"Loonie, Bank Bonds Drop as Moody's Downgrades Canada Lenders"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ebt-burden

you didn't mention the International Risks.  One of them being rising interest rates in the US, Trumpenomics, renegotiation of NAFTA, Brexit, Korea.  All of these issues threaten to destabilize the world economy and could have a major effect on our real estate prices.  All of these issues could be positive or negative to Vancouver RE.

 
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Medium Term risks?

Fri May 12, 2017 7:07 am

VanLord wrote:
jimtan wrote:
In the post-election world, let's look at some of the domestic and international risks.

The biggest domestic risk is the doubling of mortgage debt in just the last 10 years. As detailed by Steve here...

"How the Big Banks Have Created a Debt Monster"

http://vancitycondoguide.com/risk-on/




Credit ratings drop here ...


"Loonie, Bank Bonds Drop as Moody's Downgrades Canada Lenders"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ebt-burden

you didn't mention the International Risks.  One of them being rising interest rates in the US, Trumpenomics, renegotiation of NAFTA, Brexit, Korea.  All of these issues threaten to destabilize the world economy and could have a major effect on our real estate prices.  All of these issues could be positive or negative to Vancouver RE.

 

irrelevant - plonk
 
tdma800
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Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Medium Term risks?

Fri May 12, 2017 7:08 am

in the real world, 300,000 people a year come to canada that need a place to live and we're going to the moon!
 
jimtan
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Topic Author
Posts: 5414
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: Medium Term risks?

Fri May 12, 2017 8:04 am

VanLord wrote:
you didn't mention the International Risks.  One of them being rising interest rates in the US, Trumpenomics, renegotiation of NAFTA, Brexit, Korea.  All of these issues threaten to destabilize the world economy and could have a major effect on our real estate prices.  All of these issues could be positive or negative to Vancouver RE.

 

Good points. I'll let you guys comment on them individually.
Can anyone add to out understanding of the debt load that home buyers have signed on for? Any anecdotes?
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Medium Term risks?

Fri May 12, 2017 8:05 am

jimtan wrote:
VanLord wrote:
you didn't mention the International Risks.  One of them being rising interest rates in the US, Trumpenomics, renegotiation of NAFTA, Brexit, Korea.  All of these issues threaten to destabilize the world economy and could have a major effect on our real estate prices.  All of these issues could be positive or negative to Vancouver RE.

 

Good points. I'll let you guys comment on them individually.
Can anyone add to out understanding of the debt load that home buyers have signed on for? Any anecdotes?

irrelevant - plonk
 
tdma800
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Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Medium Term risks?

Fri May 12, 2017 8:06 am

in the real world we're going to the moon!
 
reallyreal2
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Re: Medium Term risks?

Fri May 12, 2017 9:19 am

 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Medium Term risks?

Fri May 12, 2017 9:31 am

^-- irrelevant fake news - plonk
 
jimtan
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Posts: 5414
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: Medium Term risks?

Fri May 12, 2017 11:36 pm

reallyreal2 wrote:
http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/mortgage-expert-warns-u-s-fed-will-cause-rate-increases-in-canada-1.3322093

Good find.

The fall of Home Capital is going to impact sub-prime borrowers.

"Home Capital Warns of ‘Knock-On Effects’ If It Fails to Recover

... Home Capital’s troubles are being closely watched by investors concerned about possible contagion to other lenders and to the red-hot housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver. The Canadian dollar has slumped, and is the worst performing currency among Group of 10 nations this year. Moody’s Investors Service late Wednesday cut the credit ratings on six Canadian banks, citing rising household debt and soaring real estate prices that make the banks more vulnerable to losses.

If Home Capital collapses it would “have significant knock-on effects, particularly to new Canadians and others who this company services,” Hibben said, referring to the “alternative” market of borrowers, such as immigrants or small-business owners, who have trouble getting loans from big banks due to lack of credit or income history. Hibben estimates Home Capital has about 5 percent of this market..."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... s-earnings
 
tdma800
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Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Medium Term risks?

Sat May 13, 2017 5:03 am

Irrelevant - plonk
 
jimtan
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Topic Author
Posts: 5414
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: Medium Term risks?

Sun May 14, 2017 7:27 am

Here's the external gorilla of economic risks.

"Markets Start to Ponder the $13 Trillion Gorilla in the Room"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... n-the-room
 
tdma800
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Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Medium Term risks?

Sun May 14, 2017 7:35 am

^-- irrelevant - plonk
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 5414
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: Medium Term risks?

Mon May 15, 2017 6:57 pm

WE know that the foreigner buyers tax etc has had an effect on detached in prime areas. We know that condo supply will be at historically high levels. We just had an election with a possible NDP/Green government.

What else could start the ball rolling. Turn the market around in a rush?

Here's a guy who has mental health issues...

"Getting Mad at the Wrong Trump Economic Blunder

His assertion about taxes is far worse than an old phrase he thinks he coined...

Ha ha ha! Trump thinks he just coined the term "prime the pump" a few days ago! Economists and politicians have been using it for generations! In fact, even Donald Trump has been using the phrase since at least late last year, when he told Time magazine's Michael Scherer in his Person of the Year interview:

... But none of that is why I'm writing this column. I'm writing this column because, in the middle of his historically naive explanation of Keynesian pump-priming, Trump threw out a statement that is dramatically, dangerously wrong -- and the interviewers from the Economist didn't correct him on it.

That statement is, of course, "We’re the highest-taxed nation in the world." Here are the latest numbers on tax burdens among affluent nations (from a column I wrote when the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development released them in December):..."

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... ic-blunder

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