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What will happen to the market in the next 11 months

Poll ended at Tue Feb 14, 2017 11:01 am

Prices increase by 10% or greater
2 (18%)
Prices increase by 5%
2 (18%)
Prices stay relatively flat
2 (18%)
Prices decrease by 5%
No votes
Prices decrease by 5% or greater
5 (45%)
 
Total votes: 11
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
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Re: Predictions for 2017

Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:04 am

^--- irrelevant foreign fake media



.
 
tdma800
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Re: Predictions for 2017

Mon Mar 13, 2017 8:06 am

http://business.financialpost.com/perso ... ns-elusive



rebates and less taxes.   We're going to the moon!
 
jimtan
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Re: Predictions for 2017

Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:31 am

:roll:

AS the article says, some exceptions for a few. But, home ownership remains elusive. Enjoy...

"Ready or Not, Here Come Trump and North Korea

President Donald Trump is a reckless bully with authoritarian leanings and a craving for attention. Kim Jong-un is a reckless bully with dictatorial powers and a craving for attention. Oh yes, and both have fingers on nuclear triggers. That's why so many national security experts of both political parties struggle to think of a scarier pair.

It's not just that Kim's outlaw North Korean regime has accelerated its nuclear weapons capacity and delivery capability, or that Kim sees nuclear weapons as his insurance policy against adversaries.

It's also that Trump has displayed little appreciation of history or knowledge and a compulsion to show that he's tough...

The other fear is that the megalomaniac North Korean dictator could goad Trump into a mano-a-mano exchange that starts on Twitter and ends who-knows-where..."

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-19/ready-or-not-here-come-trump-and-north-korea
 
tdma800
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Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Predictions for 2017

Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:34 am

^---- irrelevant foreign media and some would say in the modern vernacular "fake" news.
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5441
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: Predictions for 2017

Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:48 am

Right!  Bloomberg has 'fake' news, but breitbarp has the 'real' news?  :lol:
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Predictions for 2017

Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:48 am

bloomberg is foreign media
 
jimtan
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Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: Predictions for 2017

Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:53 am

So is breitbarp  :!:
 
tdma800
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Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Predictions for 2017

Mon Mar 20, 2017 11:09 am

bloomberg doenst look canadian at all
 
westcoastfella
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Posts: 1582
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2007 8:11 am

Re: Predictions for 2017

Mon Mar 20, 2017 1:17 pm

jimtan wrote:
:roll:

AS the article says, some exceptions for a few. But, home ownership remains elusive. Enjoy...

"Ready or Not, Here Come Trump and North Korea

President Donald Trump is a reckless bully with authoritarian leanings and a craving for attention. Kim Jong-un is a reckless bully with dictatorial powers and a craving for attention. Oh yes, and both have fingers on nuclear triggers. That's why so many national security experts of both political parties struggle to think of a scarier pair.

It's not just that Kim's outlaw North Korean regime has accelerated its nuclear weapons capacity and delivery capability, or that Kim sees nuclear weapons as his insurance policy against adversaries.

It's also that Trump has displayed little appreciation of history or knowledge and a compulsion to show that he's tough...

The other fear is that the megalomaniac North Korean dictator could goad Trump into a mano-a-mano exchange that starts on Twitter and ends who-knows-where..."

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-19/ready-or-not-here-come-trump-and-north-korea

Kim has his finger on a nuclear trigger that can only hit Japan or SKorea, and has no chance of getting anywhere near the US... in this case the US has no mortal threat.

If nuclear conflict were inevitable, I'm guessing China would take out Kim themselves.  The last thing they want is a nuclear war in their backyard.
 
jimtan
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Posts: 5441
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: Predictions for 2017

Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:43 pm

westcoastfella wrote:
If nuclear conflict were inevitable, I'm guessing China would take out Kim themselves.  The last thing they want is a nuclear war in their backyard.

The situation is complex. China still needs North Korea as a buffer against South Korea + American allies, Remember the Korean War of 1950-3.
How will China respond if its a showdown between Trump and Kim?
Japan is the most important American ally in the Pacific. The American establishment is committed to the defense of Japan. Can Trump walk away?
Any scenario where violence is used, is negative for the stock markets. Why? 
North Korea will be quickly defeated by the modern air forces of South Korea and the States. Can Kim restraint himself from using nukes?
The problem is compounded under the Trump regime. His bullying and insulting style (even against Canadian, British and German allies) is a provocation. While the adults in his government are trying to limit the damage, Trump is unpredictable because his core supporters want a show of force.
He can back down, which Kim will take as a victory. Or, he can try to intimidate KIm.
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: Predictions for 2017

Mon Mar 20, 2017 5:46 pm

westcoastfella wrote:
jimtan wrote:
:roll:

AS the article says, some exceptions for a few. But, home ownership remains elusive. Enjoy...

"Ready or Not, Here Come Trump and North Korea

President Donald Trump is a reckless bully with authoritarian leanings and a craving for attention. Kim Jong-un is a reckless bully with dictatorial powers and a craving for attention. Oh yes, and both have fingers on nuclear triggers. That's why so many national security experts of both political parties struggle to think of a scarier pair.

It's not just that Kim's outlaw North Korean regime has accelerated its nuclear weapons capacity and delivery capability, or that Kim sees nuclear weapons as his insurance policy against adversaries.

It's also that Trump has displayed little appreciation of history or knowledge and a compulsion to show that he's tough...

The other fear is that the megalomaniac North Korean dictator could goad Trump into a mano-a-mano exchange that starts on Twitter and ends who-knows-where..."

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-19/ready-or-not-here-come-trump-and-north-korea

Kim has his finger on a nuclear trigger that can only hit Japan or SKorea, and has no chance of getting anywhere near the US... in this case the US has no mortal threat.

If nuclear conflict were inevitable, I'm guessing China would take out Kim themselves.  The last thing they want is a nuclear war in their backyard.

Yes, exactly.  Its quite plain and simple.  Anyone who actually knows about the situation knows that Japan is mostly a traditional place where troops are kept rather than anything they actually want.  The new US leadership reduces the issue into something more simple, which is mostly aimed at non tradditional friends.
 
westcoastfella
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Posts: 1582
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2007 8:11 am

Re: Predictions for 2017

Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:07 pm

jimtan wrote:
westcoastfella wrote:
If nuclear conflict were inevitable, I'm guessing China would take out Kim themselves.  The last thing they want is a nuclear war in their backyard.

The situation is complex. China still needs North Korea as a buffer against South Korea + American allies, Remember the Korean War of 1950-3.
How will China respond if its a showdown between Trump and Kim?
Japan is the most important American ally in the Pacific. The American establishment is committed to the defense of Japan. Can Trump walk away?
Any scenario where violence is used, is negative for the stock markets. Why? 
North Korea will be quickly defeated by the modern air forces of South Korea and the States. Can Kim restraint himself from using nukes?
The problem is compounded under the Trump regime. His bullying and insulting style (even against Canadian, British and German allies) is a provocation. While the adults in his government are trying to limit the damage, Trump is unpredictable because his core supporters want a show of force.
He can back down, which Kim will take as a victory. Or, he can try to intimidate KIm.

The showdown between trump and kim is going to happen, 2 hotheads will always come to blows in the end.  In the event of shit hitting the fan, Kim cannot strike the US with a missile today - his only option will be to strike US allies that he can reach, which means Japan and SKorea. The US will absolutely defend both (and their own presence in those countries), which means attacking back at NKorea.  Unfortunately for China, the actual fight will take place very close to China, while the US remains virtually unscathed (militarily). This cannot be a good scenario for China, especially in the event of a nuclear strike... who wants to be living within 500 km of 3 radioactive wastelands?

Why is any violence negative for stock markets?  Um, duh... you're talking about 2 of the 10 biggest economies in the world (Japan and SKorea) being threatened with nuclear annihilation, while the top 2 economies get ready to face off against each other in the background.  None of that is good for anyone's economy... including China.

Therefore, China is faced with nuclear devastation on their border, coupled with a huge economic shock that is liable to hurt them badly... or they can continue to defend and prop up a dinky little military state that does nothing for them other than provide 300km of land buffer between them and the "evil west".  I wonder what way they will go...

China could easily remove Kim from power, if they so chose.  If NKorea is still strategic to them (I would argue its not as important as it was 50 years ago - modern missile and submarine technology has made those sorts of land buffers less important), they can insert whatever "progressive communist" they want to get some semblance of sanity there.
 
jimtan
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Re: Predictions for 2017

Mon Mar 20, 2017 6:58 pm

You don't understand the dynamics of the Trump regime. After a win for Trump in North Korea, China would be the next target. And, on to the next.

The only way to contain Trump is to bog him down. This is what the GOP establishment is doing now.

"Trump's 'big gray cloud' means things will likely get worse before they get better"

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/20/trumps-b ... etter.html

However, people like Trump are never more dangerous than when he is weak domestically, or being ridiculed..
 
Harahomes
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Topic Author
Posts: 89
Joined: Fri Apr 22, 2016 7:36 am

Re: Predictions for 2017

Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:41 pm

I guess everyone was wrong.  I was predicting 10% year over year, but according to the new numbers we are sitting at 12.3%

TORONTO — Royal LePage says early evidence suggests that the recent correction in Vancouver’s housing market may be short-lived.
The realtor released a report Tuesday saying Canada’s two largest real estate markets continued their divergence in the first quarter of the year.
The aggregate price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area rose by an “unprecedented” 20 per cent across all housing types to $759,241 in the first three months of 2017.
In the Greater Vancouver area, the price of a home rose 12.3 per cent year-over-year to $1,179,482.
Royal LePage CEO Phil Soper says the housing correction in Vancouver began seven months ago, around the time that the B.C. government introduced a 15 per cent tax on foreign nationals buying real estate in the city.

Sales volumes then plunged and prices slowed their torrid upwards trajectory.
But just in the past month, sales in the Vancouver area have leapt forward by close to 50 per cent on a month-over-month basis, says Soper — better than the seasonal average.
“An unfortunate side effect of heavy-handed regulatory intervention is that we risk market whiplash,” Soper said in a statement.
“In the coming weeks, it is possible that six months of pent-up demand will be unleashed on the market, sending prices sharply upward again; this when the pre-intervention 2016 trend was a natural market slowdown based on eroding affordability.”
Across Canada, the aggregate price of a home grew 12.6 per cent year-over-year to $574,575 during the first quarter, Royal LePage said.
The price of a two-storey home climbed 13.9 per cent year-over-year to $681,728, while the price of a bungalow rose 10.9 per cent to $490,018. Condo prices increased by 8.9 per cent to $373,768.
In Calgary, home prices were up 0.6 per cent to $461,635, while in Edmonton they rose 0.3 per cent to $381,733.
 
jimtan
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Posts: 5441
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: Predictions for 2017

Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:49 pm

Ahhhh.

I may not be a maths genius. But, it seems to me that a 12% increase year over year doesn't mean that it will rise 12% for 2017?

"What will happen to the market in the next 11 months?"

:wink:

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