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tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2159
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Sun Jan 29, 2017 4:02 pm

Experienced people dont gamble in the stock market when they'll pay more tax.  The cost of interest doesn't increase unless you have an open mortgage
 
eyesthebye2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1019
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Sun Jan 29, 2017 5:00 pm

tdma800 wrote:
Experienced people dont gamble in the stock market when they'll pay more tax.  The cost of interest doesn't increase unless you have an open mortgage


That's a good point.
Buy your own home and live in it tax free, or rent and invest in the stock market? Perhaps the stocks might outperform real estate, but you'll need to pay taxes on that investment income.
The pension I pour 15k a year into is managed by a large company - they are much better at balancing the investment than I would ever be.
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2159
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Sun Jan 29, 2017 5:02 pm

the foreign buyers tax will be lifted on people with work permits in BC. to the moon!!
 
VanLord
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 225
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2007 3:52 pm

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:04 pm

eyesthebye2 wrote:
tdma800 wrote:
Experienced people dont gamble in the stock market when they'll pay more tax.  The cost of interest doesn't increase unless you have an open mortgage


That's a good point.
Buy your own home and live in it tax free, or rent and invest in the stock market? Perhaps the stocks might outperform real estate, but you'll need to pay taxes on that investment income.
The pension I pour 15k a year into is managed by a large company - they are much better at balancing the investment than I would ever be.


You are quite naïve tdma - How does one save for a downpayment on a house?  You would likely be wise to invest at least a portion of that money using a TFSA, which does allow you to invest in the stock market tax free.  Your assumption that a Primary Residence plus CPP/OAS will be enough for a comfortable retirement is likely making assumptions that are fairly risky.  I for one would not want to rely on what the government provides, they could very easily change all those assumptions, forcing you to work much longer, Experienced people know that you should take control of your retirement rather than relying on government programs. 

Eyesthebuy also mentioned that his employer has a pension plan that allows him to put a percentage of his salary into a pension plan in return for an additional percentage from the employer.  This is a very good way to accumulate retirement savings and you are able to deduct that income from your current taxes, which will be quite advantageous over the long run. 

As for the mortgage, what happens when the Mortgage term expires?  You only have the guaranteed rate for the 5 yr term, so if interests rates rise you will eventually have to pay a higher mortgage rate.

Also holding a closed mortgage comes with hefty penalties if you decide to cancel the mortgage.  The Closed mortgage requires you to pay the interest differential between your rate and the posted rate, which can be 2-3% higher for the entire term of the mortgage, where as an open mortgage has a much smaller penalty like 3 months interest.

Over the past 15 years holding a closed mortgage is exactly the wrong strategy, and would have cost an avg person thousands of dollars in extra interest charges.  I believe that a variable rate mortgage is the right choice over the next few years as well.  Its much easier to lock-in a variable rate mortgage when rates start to rise, than try to renegotiate a closed mortgage when rates are falling.  I know not to feed the troll, but I couldn't help it, your overly simplistic view just doesn't make sense. 
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2159
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:20 pm

People that know about taxes know that money that comes from RRSPs and pensions is taxable and that the limit on a tax free account, already small, was cut in half about a year ago.  You can put in as much money as you like into a mortgage if it is not closed and even a closed one allows a big chunk each year. If one some how thinks interest will go up then get a 10 year mortgage from td bank lol
 
reallyreal2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 495
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:30 am

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:25 pm

Vanlord - agree with everything you said.

Many here think that down payments magically appear out of thin air.  Generally speaking, I don't think I know of a single person that has bought RE as an investment in the past 2 years.  Used to be everybody and their dog was buying it.  
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2159
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Mon Jan 30, 2017 1:35 pm

People that go outside the typical home once in a while and have friends know that the proverbial Tom, Dick, and Harry is buying a house or apartment to make money on, and/or to live in. And in the case of BC, down payments do appear 'just like that' as of a few weeks ago. on approved credit.  And last, but not entirely least is that in Canada people are allowed to borrow their down payment even when it is not a primary residence.
 
reallyreal2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 495
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:30 am

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:27 am

http://www.cknw.com/2017/01/29/267389/

Where or where have all the buyers gone?  LOL
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2159
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:29 am

Educated people know that the end and the beginning of the year is always lower

We're going to the moon !
 
Tsawguy
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 10
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:35 pm

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:32 am

January 2017 numbers from The Greater Fool blog.

1. Processed and Sold in January: 313 in 2017 vs 763 in 2016; down 59%
2. Average Sold Price in January: $1.58 million in 2017 vs $1.83 million in 2016; down 14%
3. Median Sold Price in January: $1.28 million in 2017 vs $1.46 million in 2016; down 12%
4. New Listings in January: 1,921 in 2017 vs 2,031 in 2016; down 5% (keep this in mind when reviewing the over $3 and $5 million stats below)
5. Average New Listings Price in January 2017: $2.65 million (or 68% higher than the Average Sold Price in January 2017)
6. Median New Listings Price in January 2017: $1.92 million (or 50% higher than the Median Sold Price in January 2017)
7. Number of Houses Sold over $3 million in January: 22 in 2017 vs 105 in 2016; down 79%
8. New Listings for Houses Asking over $3 million in January: 485 in 2017 vs 430 in 2016; up 13%
9. Total Current Listings for Houses Asking over $3 million: 1,073 houses.
10. Sales-to-Listings Ratio for Houses over $3 million: 2% or approx. 4 years of supply or inventory at this sales rate.
11. Number of Houses Sold over $5 million in January: 6 in 2017 vs 23 in 2016; down 74%
12. New Listings for Houses Asking over $5 million in January: 170 in 2017 vs 139 in 2016; up 22%
13. Total Current Listings for Houses Asking over $5 million: 405 houses
14. Sales-to-Listings Ratio for Houses over $5 million: 1.5% or approx. 5 years of supply or inventory at this sales rate.
Bonus Stat #1. Dollar Value of Houses Sold in January: $494 million in 2017 vs $1.4 billion in 2016; down over $900 million in Greater Vancouver alone.  This does not include the Fraser Valley or the rest of the province.  At this rate, the BC government will collect $300 million less in Land Transfer Tax (aka. Christy Clark’s 2015 and 2016 windfall profits to balance the BC budget).
Bonus Stat #2:  Of the 313 sales in January, 91% of those Detached Houses sold for less than their original asking price.  (versus approx. 33% in January 2016)

Not even a realtor (or tdma) could find the bright spot in those numbers...
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2159
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Thu Feb 02, 2017 9:49 am

^ --- from some joe in Ontario who is well known to want a lower market.

in other news its always slow in winter.
 
reallyreal2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 495
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:30 am

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:07 am

Tsawguy wrote:
January 2017 numbers from The Greater Fool blog.

1. Processed and Sold in January: 313 in 2017 vs 763 in 2016; down 59%
2. Average Sold Price in January: $1.58 million in 2017 vs $1.83 million in 2016; down 14%
3. Median Sold Price in January: $1.28 million in 2017 vs $1.46 million in 2016; down 12%
4. New Listings in January: 1,921 in 2017 vs 2,031 in 2016; down 5% (keep this in mind when reviewing the over $3 and $5 million stats below)
5. Average New Listings Price in January 2017: $2.65 million (or 68% higher than the Average Sold Price in January 2017)
6. Median New Listings Price in January 2017: $1.92 million (or 50% higher than the Median Sold Price in January 2017)
7. Number of Houses Sold over $3 million in January: 22 in 2017 vs 105 in 2016; down 79%
8. New Listings for Houses Asking over $3 million in January: 485 in 2017 vs 430 in 2016; up 13%
9. Total Current Listings for Houses Asking over $3 million: 1,073 houses.
10. Sales-to-Listings Ratio for Houses over $3 million: 2% or approx. 4 years of supply or inventory at this sales rate.
11. Number of Houses Sold over $5 million in January: 6 in 2017 vs 23 in 2016; down 74%
12. New Listings for Houses Asking over $5 million in January: 170 in 2017 vs 139 in 2016; up 22%
13. Total Current Listings for Houses Asking over $5 million: 405 houses
14. Sales-to-Listings Ratio for Houses over $5 million: 1.5% or approx. 5 years of supply or inventory at this sales rate.
Bonus Stat #1. Dollar Value of Houses Sold in January: $494 million in 2017 vs $1.4 billion in 2016; down over $900 million in Greater Vancouver alone.  This does not include the Fraser Valley or the rest of the province.  At this rate, the BC government will collect $300 million less in Land Transfer Tax (aka. Christy Clark’s 2015 and 2016 windfall profits to balance the BC budget).
Bonus Stat #2:  Of the 313 sales in January, 91% of those Detached Houses sold for less than their original asking price.  (versus approx. 33% in January 2016)

Not even a realtor (or tdma) could find the bright spot in those numbers...

WOW!
That is a complete and utter disaster.  And these are cold-hard-facts - anyone can ask any realtor to simply pull the numbers.  
LOL - and it is only going to get worse.  Nothing is selling these days.  
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2159
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Thu Feb 02, 2017 10:18 am

Tsawguy wrote:
January 2017 numbers from The Greater Fool blog.

1. Processed and Sold in January: 313 in 2017 vs 763 in 2016; down 59%
2. Average Sold Price in January: $1.58 million in 2017 vs $1.83 million in 2016; down 14%
3. Median Sold Price in January: $1.28 million in 2017 vs $1.46 million in 2016; down 12%
4. New Listings in January: 1,921 in 2017 vs 2,031 in 2016; down 5% (keep this in mind when reviewing the over $3 and $5 million stats below)
5. Average New Listings Price in January 2017: $2.65 million (or 68% higher than the Average Sold Price in January 2017)
6. Median New Listings Price in January 2017: $1.92 million (or 50% higher than the Median Sold Price in January 2017)
7. Number of Houses Sold over $3 million in January: 22 in 2017 vs 105 in 2016; down 79%
8. New Listings for Houses Asking over $3 million in January: 485 in 2017 vs 430 in 2016; up 13%
9. Total Current Listings for Houses Asking over $3 million: 1,073 houses.
10. Sales-to-Listings Ratio for Houses over $3 million: 2% or approx. 4 years of supply or inventory at this sales rate.
11. Number of Houses Sold over $5 million in January: 6 in 2017 vs 23 in 2016; down 74%
12. New Listings for Houses Asking over $5 million in January: 170 in 2017 vs 139 in 2016; up 22%
13. Total Current Listings for Houses Asking over $5 million: 405 houses
14. Sales-to-Listings Ratio for Houses over $5 million: 1.5% or approx. 5 years of supply or inventory at this sales rate.
Bonus Stat #1. Dollar Value of Houses Sold in January: $494 million in 2017 vs $1.4 billion in 2016; down over $900 million in Greater Vancouver alone.  This does not include the Fraser Valley or the rest of the province.  At this rate, the BC government will collect $300 million less in Land Transfer Tax (aka. Christy Clark’s 2015 and 2016 windfall profits to balance the BC budget).
Bonus Stat #2:  Of the 313 sales in January, 91% of those Detached Houses sold for less than their original asking price.  (versus approx. 33% in January 2016)

From some guy in Ontario. not related to Vancouver anyway
 
Tsawguy
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 10
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2017 9:35 pm

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:28 am

tdma, What would make you admit you are wrong about this market? It is in a slow melt at best. 

The numbers don't lie.
 
reallyreal2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 495
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2016 11:30 am

Re: LePage Expects Vancouver Housing Correction in 2017

Thu Feb 02, 2017 11:33 am

Tsawguy wrote:
tdma, What would make you admit you are wrong about this market? It is in a slow melt at best. 

The numbers don't lie.

LOL - tdma and his monkey buddies:
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