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jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5408
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Sat Mar 25, 2017 6:27 pm

eyesthebye2 wrote:
jimtan wrote:
eyesthebye2 wrote:
Thats it? 10%?
I would have expected the discount to be more buyer friendly

:D
10% is pretty good right after the turn in the market. Huge de-acceleration and drama.  :shock:
We're on course for a 30% SFH drop by EOY 2017 or spring 2018. Good :?:



Thats it bud, 10%.
We're now headed in the opposite direction youd hoped.

Oh! There must be bullish signs when ETB shows up.
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tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Sat Mar 25, 2017 6:39 pm

eyesthebye2 wrote:
jimtan wrote:
eyesthebye2 wrote:
Thats it? 10%?
I would have expected the discount to be more buyer friendly

:D
10% is pretty good right after the turn in the market. Huge de-acceleration and drama.  :shock:
We're on course for a 30% SFH drop by EOY 2017 or spring 2018. Good :?:



Thats it bud, 10%.
We're now headed in the opposite direction youd hoped.

notice the adobe graph above lol
 
eyesthebye2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1151
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Sat Mar 25, 2017 7:07 pm

jimtan wrote:
eyesthebye2 wrote:
jimtan wrote:
:D
10% is pretty good right after the turn in the market. Huge de-acceleration and drama.  :shock:
We're on course for a 30% SFH drop by EOY 2017 or spring 2018. Good :?:



Thats it bud, 10%.
We're now headed in the opposite direction youd hoped.

Oh! There must be bullish signs when ETB shows up.


What the chart shows me is that sales are at 2013 and 2014 levels.
What it also shows is that listings are much much lower than 2013 and 2014.
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5408
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Sat Mar 25, 2017 7:17 pm

I'm surprised that you don't have actual sales transactions to cite?

Any idea what the inventory levels are versus 2013?
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Sat Mar 25, 2017 8:36 pm

eyesthebye2 wrote:
jimtan wrote:
eyesthebye2 wrote:


Thats it bud, 10%.
We're now headed in the opposite direction youd hoped.

Oh! There must be bullish signs when ETB shows up.


What the chart shows me is that sales are at 2013 and 2014 levels.
What it also shows is that listings are much much lower than 2013 and 2014.

Coming out of winter things are flying off the shelves
 
yzfr1
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 252
Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:35 pm

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Sat Mar 25, 2017 9:39 pm

What I can see from the graph is correlation, sales and listings are staying together, if there was divergence that could be alarming. Example huge dip in sales but large spike in inventory.

If you were to overlay a price moving average over the sales vs listing graph you would see there in NO correlation in price drop vs drop in sales and listings but divergence.

Trends are confirmed by volume Dow believed that volume confirmed price trends. When prices move on low volume, there could be many different explanations. An overly aggressive seller could be present for example. But when price movements are accompanied by high volume, Dow believed this represented the "true" market view. If many participants are active in a particular security, and the price moves significantly in one direction, Dow maintained that this was the direction in which the market anticipated continued movement. To him, it was a signal that a trend is developing.

We don't have enough volume to indicate a falling market yet. I believe people are all moving to a hold / wait and see.
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5408
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Sat Mar 25, 2017 11:20 pm

yzfr1 wrote:

We don't have enough volume to indicate a falling market yet. I believe people are all moving to a hold / wait and see.

Too technical for me. However, I agree with you. Most people are wait-see. Just take a walk around the SFH streets. Only a few For Sale signs. But, also very few SOLD signs.
IMO, the first hurdle is the provincial election. If there are no surprises, we will just have to let the market decide what it wants.
A stalemate can last for years (like Singapore). However, the final key is mortgage interest rates. Should % rise as the market edges up, then the buyers will capitulate. On the other hand, a slipping market as % rise will stampede the sellers.
These are great days.  :wink:
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Sun Mar 26, 2017 6:47 am

yzfr1 wrote:
What I can see from the graph is correlation, sales and listings are staying together, if there was divergence that could be alarming. Example huge dip in sales but large spike in inventory.

If you were to overlay a price moving average over the sales vs listing graph you would see there in NO correlation in price drop vs drop in sales and listings but divergence.

Trends are confirmed by volume Dow believed that volume confirmed price trends. When prices move on low volume, there could be many different explanations. An overly aggressive seller could be present for example. But when price movements are accompanied by high volume, Dow believed this represented the "true" market view. If many participants are active in a particular security, and the price moves significantly in one direction, Dow maintained that this was the direction in which the market anticipated continued movement. To him, it was a signal that a trend is developing.

We don't have enough volume to indicate a falling market yet. I believe people are all moving to a hold / wait and see.

This isnt like gambling on the stock market btw
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5408
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Mon Mar 27, 2017 10:26 pm

tdma800 wrote:
This isnt like gambling on the stock market btw

For some people, everything is a gamble.
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:01 am

Things are different here. Its a new normal .  To the moon!
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5408
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Tue Mar 28, 2017 7:14 am

hah
 
rMBA13
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 215
Joined: Fri Jun 27, 2014 3:46 pm

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:36 am

Why is nobody selling?
 
yzfr1
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 252
Joined: Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:35 pm

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:18 pm

 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:25 pm

https://www.biv.com/article/2017/3/boom ... eed-bumps/ flying off the shelves! 

to the moon!
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5408
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: How do you explain Vancouver plummeting and Toronto surging?

Tue Mar 28, 2017 2:58 pm

It's the same in 2007. There were first timers still buying as the market swooned.

How high can the condo go with only local demand? Logical response...

"Home buyers, tenants from Lower Mainland moving to outlying areas to live"

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/home- ... 03473.html

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