This is a friendly, interactive exchange of information on all Real Estate related subjects. Follow on Twitter: @RETALKS


Moderator: admin

  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 25
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Aug 09, 2016 9:24 am

35,000 people a year need a place to live and not all of them stay with roommates lol
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:26 am

It won't drop 20 or 30.... it will drop 60% or wont drop at all. 20% - 30% does not bring normalcy back to this market.
Eyesthebye2 wrote:
10 to 15% = 90%
30% = 40%
50% = 5 %

60% = not a fucking hope in hell

Oh really? Vancouver home prices have frequently returned to their long-term, pre-bubble prices before, so why can't it ever happen here again?
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:30 am

Just got another letter in the mail personally addressed to me asking if I want to sell.

It's naive to think demand is going to full stop. Remember 2009? A 5-6 month lull in the market created a backlog of demand that resulted in years of price increases.

I personally don't care whether my house is 1.2 or 2.0 million - but one has to assess the market realistically.
Its already quite well known that things are different here, with a lot of synergies. To the moon!!
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:34 am

35,000 people a year need a place to live and not all of them stay with roommates lol
Building boom blankets Vancouver with multimillion dollar projects
VANCOUVER – The number of building permits issued by the City of Vancouver has reached an all-time record.
City officials say permits issued in 2015 soared 14.6 per cent over the year earlier and was up 105 per cent compared with 2008.
Value of the permits issued last year has been pegged at $3.2-billion.
According to the city, 10 major construction projects valued at more than $50-million were approved in 2015, including a 52-storey downtown highrise valued at $279-million.
More than 300 permits were issued with a value greater than $1-million.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:38 am

plenty of fresh residents, visitors. citizens and so on coming to the whole region a year with nary a vacancy in site
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:46 am

Oops, I forgot:

Do not feed the troll!!!
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Aug 09, 2016 11:49 am

Metro Vancouver is a pretty small place locked in on most sides just like the Greater Toronto Area
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 5515
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:17 pm

Just got another letter in the mail personally addressed to me asking if I want to sell.

It's naive to think demand is going to full stop. Remember 2009? A 5-6 month lull in the market created a backlog of demand that resulted in years of price increases.
Sorry, my dear.
I was confident in 2009 because of massive government intervention and large falls in interest rates. China was still go-go. Oil peaked in 2012  :!:
2016 is different. Interest rates are low-low. Governments are tired. The latest Japanese stimulus are ineffective. More important, China has changed.  :D
The western world has changed. Occupy Wall Street was a fringe movement. Bernie and Trump are stirring the center. Here is a guy who will get at least 45% of the vote in November.
"Trump Has a Posture, Not a Plan, on Economics"
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/ ... -economics
The world is now a more dangerous place than 2009.  :shock:
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Aug 09, 2016 7:27 pm

Both before and now, some of Asia, especially Japan, is largely irrelevant to Vancouver.  The US election is a source of coffee table talk for locals but not much of a concern.  The earth is mostly a safer environment compared to 5 years ago
 
eyesthebye2
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1207
Joined: Sun Jul 27, 2014 6:41 am
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Aug 09, 2016 9:10 pm

If you find yourself wishing for a large price drop it's probably a self-serving bias.

Either way it makes little difference. I just find Vancouver real estate theatrical whatever shakes down (earthquake pun intended)
 
rMBA13
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 219
Joined: Fri Jun 27, 2014 3:46 pm
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Aug 09, 2016 9:36 pm

Chinese buyers will stop flippin their houses nao
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Topic Author
Posts: 5515
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Wed Aug 10, 2016 8:10 am

Foreign (non resident) buyers tend to be investors, not flippers. It's the local residents who are flippers.

The worry, now, is that the foreign owners will begin to sell, because it will no longer be fashionable to own RE in Vancouver, Burnaby and Richmond.  :shock:

That's what it means when the FUN-damentals change.  :!:
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:47 pm

If you find yourself wishing for a large price drop it's probably a self-serving bias.

Either way it makes little difference. I just find Vancouver real estate theatrical whatever shakes down (earthquake pun intended)
I agree that I display a self-serving bias. I hate seeing the social corrosion caused by lack of affordability in the city I love. I don't like seeing my friend's children and grandchildren being forced to move out of the city, I don't like seeing local businesses facing massive recruiting problems because of high rents and high home prices, I don't like losing good friends and neighbours just because they are renters, I don't like the understandable resentment I feel from those who were not fortunate enough to have been holding multiple properties before the huge bubble. 

Unlike you, I take no pleasure in seeing others being denied the opportunities which were available to most people prior to this bubble.

I recognize that you came to the party late but, like many "house-poor" people, you can still claim a substantial potential profit on paper. Wanting to lock it in by pulling up the ladder behind you is not a nice attitude. One day you might finally figure out that unrealized paper profits are not the only things of value in life.  You have often claimed that you bought your house for you and your family to live in, not as an investment. If there was ever an ounce of truth in those past claims you should be content if property prices just do what they have always done over the long term, that is roughly track inflation, no more and no less. Unfortunately you appear to delight in watching others, including your own future grandchildren, being locked out of the market.

The widely anticipated price collapse will hurt a lot of people and will impact negatively on my net worth too, but I see it as a much needed and long overdue reset which will finally return sanity to the market and some hope to those who are currently locked out. Provided the inevitable collapse doesn't drive you underwater you should welcome it too unless, as I suspect, you choose paper profits and bragging rights over social cohesion.
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 3569
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Wed Aug 10, 2016 2:00 pm

Foreign (non resident) buyers tend to be investors, not flippers. It's the local residents who are flippers.

The worry, now, is that the foreign owners will begin to sell, because it will no longer be fashionable to own RE in Vancouver, Burnaby and Richmond.  :shock:

That's what it means when the FUN-damentals change.  :!:
That makes perfect sense to me.
Anecdotally, several realtors I know are reporting local buyers backing away from deals because of the new uncertainty. The bubble was clearly driven by expectation of future gains, that expectation morphed into a mania of widespread flipping and speculation, just like the tulip mania. Once buyer confidence is shaken severely enough, the bubble bursts.
Is the current tax shock enough to topple a market which was already showing cracks? It seems likely, but it should also be remembered that bubbles have lasted much longer than most people could ever imagine, so perhaps there is still some gas left to inject into this one.  It makes me think of a family with two or three tiny tots setting out on a 500 kilometer journey in their car. The repetitive chorus of "are we there yet" can start after just a few dozen kilometers but that doesn't change the fact that eventually you will be able to say "yes, we are there!".
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am
Contact:

Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Wed Aug 10, 2016 3:48 pm

If you find yourself wishing for a large price drop it's probably a self-serving bias.

Either way it makes little difference. I just find Vancouver real estate theatrical whatever shakes down (earthquake pun intended)
To top it off, the people with citizenship are really skewed toward buying and selling quickly as it were a housing daytrading scenario.  Real Canadians are really long into it.
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 25

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests