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reallyreal2
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Thu Aug 04, 2016 10:56 pm

Agree with you post 100%

1. Long term, this is not a big deal. If you have weather the storm for the next 6 months your will be fine.

2. A lot of uncertainty and some people will panic. People that are over leveraged will sell quick.

I remember in 2008 when the USA had the financial meltdown many people sold their homes for cheap. I remember in the metrotown area homes where selling for 550k. (50 x125 lots) These homes were liveable. By 2009, approx. 8 to 14 months later, these same homes sold for 750k. Now these properties sell for north of 1.8 million. If we do see a correction of 25 % your still really far ahead.
The US didn't tank because people "sold their homes for cheap". It tanked because people stopped paying their mortgages and eventually walked away from homes they were upside down on. The banks sold them for market value - the flood of properties selling for whatever the market would bear compounded the downward pressure on prices.

Nice cherry picking: sure, you are far ahead if you bought 8 years ago and have to endure a 25% drop. But what if you put 25% down on a $2million home now and it drops 25%? You would just lose half a million dollars and still be stuck with a $1.5million dollar mortgage.

Who use to say that prices don't always go down?
Now 6 months is long term? LOL :mrgreen:
 
reallyreal2
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Thu Aug 04, 2016 10:58 pm

It won't drop 20 or 30.... it will drop 60% or wont drop at all. 20% - 30% does not bring normalcy back to this market.
10 to 15% = 90%
30% = 40%
50% = 5 %
60% = not a fucking hope in hell
LOL - so 50% is 5% but 60% is impossible. How does that make any sense?
 
rMBA13
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Fri Aug 05, 2016 5:02 am

I'll buy ya'll homes for 60% off
 
westcoastfella
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:35 am

While I'd never call anything impossible, I agree with eyes that 60% seems unimaginable. If I could suddenly buy SFH's in North Burnaby for 600K, I'd snap a couple up myself.
 
jimtan
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Fri Aug 05, 2016 7:42 am

While I'd never call anything impossible, I agree with eyes that 60% seems unimaginable. If I could suddenly buy SFH's in North Burnaby for 600K, I'd snap a couple up myself.
At that point, will you have the courage? Or, would you be hiding under the bed? :?:

Back to the facts, rich immigrants are actually a small number.

"B.C. turns from foreign buyers to investor immigrants as Vancouver's affordability crisis continues

A whopping 90 percent of Metro Vancouver residents support the region’s new 15-percent tax on foreign buyers of residential real estate. At the same time, only three percent of respondents to the same poll, conducted by the Angus Reid Institute, say the tax goes far enough, and 71 percent describe it as simply a step in the right direction...

While those numbers are small, Davidoff suggested that eliminating the QIIP could still have a noticeable effect in B.C. With a rough calculation, he guessed that removing those buyers from the market could bring prices down by between four and 10 percent.

“It would be a helpful step,” he said. Combined with other measures such as the new 15 percent tax on sales to foreign nationals, Davidoff suggested these policies, if they really work to minimize foreign investment in the market, could slowly begin to bring down prices, eventually by as much as 25 to 50 percent.

"The QIIP is what remains of two programs that once comprised investor-class immigrants. The QIIP’s federal counterpart, the Immigrant Investor Program (IIP), stopped accepting applications in 2012. Applicants trickled in for a few years after, but were down to just 84 in 2015.

The IIP and QIIP permit a foreign national to move to Canada in exchange for a five-year loan of $800,000 to the federal or Quebec government. With the IIP eliminated, the Quebec program now accounts for virtually all immigration counted under the investor class.

In 2014, there were 2,080 principal applicants admitted to Canada under both the IIP and QIIP. Then 1,547 in 2015. And now a projected 1,072 for 2016."

http://www.straight.com/news/747281/bc- ... -continues

Look forward to the data from Richmond and Burnaby :mrgreen:
 
tdma800
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:25 am

There are plenty of bolder people, citizens and otherwise. There are so many high net worth individuals, both immigrants and visitors, its not even funny.
 
whattodo
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:56 pm

10 to 15% = 90%
30% = 40%
50% = 5 %
60% = not a fucking hope in hell
Hey Eyes,

Percentages should add up to 100%. :mrgreen:
You are at 135%.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Fri Aug 05, 2016 9:32 pm

Reality is, prices will likely be adjusted down 15%...the exact value of the imposed tax.
 
westcoastfella
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Fri Aug 05, 2016 10:22 pm

While I'd never call anything impossible, I agree with eyes that 60% seems unimaginable. If I could suddenly buy SFH's in North Burnaby for 600K, I'd snap a couple up myself.
At that point, will you have the courage? Or, would you be hiding under the bed? :?:
SFH for 600K within 10km of downtown Vancouver? I'd be backing up the truck. The same truck I backed up to load up on blue chip banks/industrials/tech stocks in the spring and summer of 2009...
 
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jesse1
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Sat Aug 06, 2016 2:01 am

prices will likely be adjusted down 15%...the exact value of the imposed tax.
Mechanically that will necessarily mean a significant drop on sales for the rest of the year and next. I don't disagree that could happen, but I think the slowdown necessary to drop prices will go as unnoticed as my balding uncle's new full head of hair.
There is no shame in overpaying
 
rMBA13
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Sat Aug 06, 2016 6:06 am

House listings are way up everywhere
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Sat Aug 06, 2016 8:42 am

Jesse

I'm seeing some recent sales at about 20-25% off May values. Maybe 2 or 3. All the rest are at close to asking...but no more bidding wars.
As far as listings go, no surge of inventory. We are at 560 units sub 2M for e Vancouver detached.
Have to be sellers willing to accept the low values that some are predicting here. I don't see that happening.

prices will likely be adjusted down 15%...the exact value of the imposed tax.
Mechanically that will necessarily mean a significant drop on sales for the rest of the year and next. I don't disagree that could happen, but I think the slowdown necessary to drop prices will go as unnoticed as my balding uncle's new full head of hair.
 
jimtan
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Mon Aug 08, 2016 12:15 pm

Jesse

I'm seeing some recent sales at about 20-25% off May values. Maybe 2 or 3. All the rest are at close to asking...but no more bidding wars.
As far as listings go, no surge of inventory. We are at 560 units sub 2M for e Vancouver detached.
Have to be sellers willing to accept the low values that some are predicting here. I don't see that happening.

ETB,
These are early days. Takes time to mature. For the squeeze to become the crush. For the irrationally exuberant to become the irrationally fearful.   8)
Yes, you can quote me.  :mrgreen:
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Aug 09, 2016 9:03 am

Just got another letter in the mail personally addressed to me asking if I want to sell.

It's naive to think demand is going to full stop. Remember 2009? A 5-6 month lull in the market created a backlog of demand that resulted in years of price increases.

I personally don't care whether my house is 1.2 or 2.0 million - but one has to assess the market realistically.
 
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semven
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Aug 09, 2016 9:16 am

HI EVERYBODY!!!!

You guys were calling me a "Knifecatcher" in 2008.....Remember?

It`s different this time
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