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tdma800
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Sat Nov 05, 2016 5:14 pm

yzfr1 wrote:
The fact that inventory is still moving is big, despite all the changes in rules / tax / bubble talk. Over 2,000 transaction still occurred. I would be worried if it was 25 sales...

This is a good sign, a slow steady decline is needed to try and balance things out. Everyone knows it's not healthy for just massive appreciation without breathing room.

I would not even blink an eye if prices dropped down 15% slowly next year. I know the bears are still hoping for a catastrophic crash... but I hope and think that we can see a soft landing.

Its not that well known but some people(forgot the name) promote speculation.  Get out high lol.     Instead of gambling like that. buy a place live in it, rent out the basement, and sell it tax free later.  Never mind this Market Timing(tm)
 
him7403
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Sun Nov 06, 2016 11:58 am

What about condo prices?
Now I'm into the market and there are not many options available.
Looking forward to buy a 2bd condo under 450k in Vancouver/Burnaby/New West.
 
tiga
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:47 am

4.4% of sales in Richmond now foreigners. Was 10% before the tax? or 20%? diff # from diff sources

http://www.richmond-news.com/news/forei ... -1.2466051

Will be interesting to see if this is a trend. Maybe they were sitting back to see if prices will crash. 
HK now has 23% tax on non first time homebuyers who are foreigners I believe.
They have been putting taxes since 2012 (increasing each time) but property is still nuts there. People have noproblem paying $40M CAD for some apartments. Nice developments are $2000-3000 CAD PSF.

In fact 3 days after the increased taxes were put in place
"Adjoining luxury flats in Hong Kong sell for a record HK$104,803 per sq ft, the highest in Asia"
http://www.scmp.com/property/hong-kong- ... 4803-sq-ft
The deal comprises two adjoining units, Flats 16A and 16B with a combined saleable area of 8,702 square feet, at luxury development Mount Nicholson, which sold for HK$912 million on November 8, according to a Hong Kong government website on Tuesday. The property comes with three car parking spaces.

Thats $150M CAD. ...  
$59M gets you the penthouse at 3 river green of 8000sq ft. Much nicer view.

But just goes to saying, theres a lot of wealth out there. Vancouver is chump change in the global scheme. Good value for the money. (In China, the government does not allow any more SFH developments -- in an effort to control property prices). Now SFH are seen as more "elite" than before. So those with the desire to own a detached have to look elsewhere. 
 
jimtan
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:26 pm

oops. Clinton now has to win Arizona.Not gonna happen. prepare for a crazy week.

eyesthebye2 wrote:
reallyreal2 wrote:
It won't drop 20 or 30.... it will drop 60% or wont drop at all. 20% - 30% does not bring normalcy back to this market.


10 to 15% = 90%
30% = 40%
50% = 5 %
60% = not a fucking hope in hell
 
tdma800
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:47 pm

 
jimtan
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:27 pm

Are you going to claim that the States won't affect us?

What will you do if the buyers of SFH go on strike for another 20% off?
 
tdma800
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:31 pm

yzfr1 wrote:
reallyreal2 wrote:
You guys are all on glue... run the numbers.  Split either house (Edmonton or Vancouver) 3 ways and each person received a 33% DP.  The difference is the person in Edmonton might actually qualify for the remaining 67% mortgage.

Seriously - you guys treat numbers like opinions.  No wonder you can't see the forest crashing for the trees.



AWwwWW are you being a sour patch kid?

Dont worry about it. Go back to sleep.

These stories aren't hypothetical. Thats how I have a house in East Vancouver with a small mortgage.

intelligent people know that there aren't that many Americans buying here, and the recent events in the US may only help to bring more americans if anything.
 
tiga
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Thu Nov 10, 2016 9:29 am

tdma800 wrote:
yzfr1 wrote:
reallyreal2 wrote:
You guys are all on glue... run the numbers.  Split either house (Edmonton or Vancouver) 3 ways and each person received a 33% DP.  The difference is the person in Edmonton might actually qualify for the remaining 67% mortgage.

Seriously - you guys treat numbers like opinions.  No wonder you can't see the forest crashing for the trees.



AWwwWW are you being a sour patch kid?

Dont worry about it. Go back to sleep.

These stories aren't hypothetical. Thats how I have a house in East Vancouver with a small mortgage.

intelligent people know that there aren't that many Americans buying here, and the recent events in the US may only help to bring more americans if anything.

true... the dollar is pretty high against the canadian peso as well.
 
jimtan
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 12:00 am

Check out the charts. One more thing to worry about, thought there are some who claim that Vancouver RE is immune to foreign crises.  :mrgreen:

"Will China’s Financial Bust Ever Come?

... China's reading is the nation's highest on record in the gauge released by the Bank for International Settlements. It's the single most reliable indicator of looming financial crises, according to the BIS, which found in a 2011 analysis of 36 countries that a majority of banking crises followed readings higher than 10 percent..."

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2016-china-banking/
 
tdma800
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Sun Nov 20, 2016 6:43 am

Always a good time to have some laughter when people talk about other countries without knowing that things are different here. 30 thousand people coming a year that need a place to live lol.
 
jimtan
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:05 pm

Always useful to have some basic economics. It would be devastating WHEN this happened.

"Trump Allies Urge Fed to Cut Balance Sheet and Revive Credit

... A move to reduce the Fed’s bond holdings could put further downward pressure on prices by adding to the supply investors would have to absorb. Fed Chair Janet Yellen may get a chance to address the issue Thursday in testimony to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress..."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... wall-looms

Yes, it all adds up.  :mrgreen:
 
tdma800
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Wed Nov 23, 2016 11:07 pm

^ -  random American stuff.

We're talking about Vancouver, where things are different.

The uneducated are often unaware that the new buyer taxes in Vancouver don't apply to all categories of residential property lol
 
jimtan
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Thu Dec 01, 2016 11:54 pm

Here's something to think about. 

"Why 2016 May Be the Year of 'Peak Housing' for Canada

Real estate commissions tanked in the third quarter.

... The run-up in residential investment as a whole in years past, and this segment in particular, bears eerie resemblance to what transpired south of the border in the 2000s, Doyle observes. If history repeats itself, moving past this peak in real estate commissions won't necessarily be a harbinger of imminent doom, but rather an early warning sign that a key driver of economic growth has been tapped out — which could foster more widespread weakness further down the road. Ahead of the U.S. housing bust, the downturn in brokers' commissions and other ownership transfer costs started in the fourth quarter of 2005, well before the beginning of the financial crisis..."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... for-canada
 
tdma800
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Fri Dec 02, 2016 8:00 am

 
reallyreal2
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Re: How far can it drop? 20% or 30%?

Fri Dec 02, 2016 8:28 am

jimtan wrote:
Here's something to think about. 

"Why 2016 May Be the Year of 'Peak Housing' for Canada

Real estate commissions tanked in the third quarter.

... The run-up in residential investment as a whole in years past, and this segment in particular, bears eerie resemblance to what transpired south of the border in the 2000s, Doyle observes. If history repeats itself, moving past this peak in real estate commissions won't necessarily be a harbinger of imminent doom, but rather an early warning sign that a key driver of economic growth has been tapped out — which could foster more widespread weakness further down the road. Ahead of the U.S. housing bust, the downturn in brokers' commissions and other ownership transfer costs started in the fourth quarter of 2005, well before the beginning of the financial crisis..."

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... for-canada

The housing market is done.  Now all we have to look forward to is the realtors, plumbers, builders, etc crying about it.  LOL  
realtors might have to get a real job now and actually do some work.  But where else can they get work after taking a 8 day course? lol - what a bunch of lazy crooks.... even that cueball Mike Stewart was trying to show foreigners how to illegally avoid taxes... that's all you need to know.

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