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jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5381
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Thu Jan 07, 2016 6:43 pm

It's important to note that the Chinese stock market is collapsing under its own weight. Not because of interest rate increases or war. Are we at a cyclical top?

Early last year, I argued that the CAD would fall a lot and Canadian RE would be cheaper for foreigners. That has happened. The problem is that scenario would be healthy for our RE when the world economy is recovering. Not so good when confidence and wealth has eroded.

That are a number of ways that this can play out. That's why experience matters.
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5381
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:12 pm

This is what I mean...

"At $3.68 Million, This California Home Has Everything But Buyers"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... but-buyers
 
Writeoff
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 22
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2012 8:26 pm

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Thu Jan 28, 2016 5:15 pm

If you want to buy your second property in two years, buy your first now.

Vancouver is different.

Soon, people will rent their homes for half days. Renters will sleep during the day and leave before you are home. There will be an app for this arrangement and TV shows to promote this trend. :lol:

Immigrants will be driving this market forever. The market will always go up. It will double in 2020. Triple in 2025.
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Thu Jan 28, 2016 5:41 pm

exactly finally someone gets it.
 
jimtan
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 5381
Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2007 10:59 pm

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:06 pm

Writeoff wrote:
If you want to buy your second property in two years, buy your first now.

Vancouver is different.

Soon, people will rent their homes for half days. Renters will sleep during the day and leave before you are home. There will be an app for this arrangement and TV shows to promote this trend. :lol:

Immigrants will be driving this market forever. The market will always go up. It will double in 2020. Triple in 2025.


RE will always go up! :mrgreen:
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Thu Jan 28, 2016 8:40 pm

Precisely - Its a popular place to stay. Things should go up . to the moon!!
 
Jacobi
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 45
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2013 7:38 pm

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Thu Jan 28, 2016 9:49 pm

westar99 wrote:
This is an excellent thread and your initial post is all too familiar. I'll get into that in a moment.

I may be wrong but my thinking is that the Metro Vancouver market will go 6-8% higher in the next year (all types of housing - condos, townhomes & SFH). The year after maybe 5% again? With a down payment of 20% that's a 20% return a year.

This will be due to any combination of the factors that you correctly identify in your post. I think the Canadian dollar will go lower to 60-65 cents and stay there for a while. I don't see energy recovering for at least two years. If we look at other commodities that have fallen like gold - they fell and have flat lined for a good 2-3 years. We are still early in the energy crash which will keep the dollar and interest rates low. This makes our real estate still affordable for offshore money.

Living conditions in China are terrible compared to Vancouver. Any mid to large Chinese city is polluted, crowded with good schools very competitive to get into. That's why every wealthy Chinese family wants to come over to Canada. However, most of Canada except southern BC is just too cold. And Vancouver is the closest large international airport to China. We are on the front line of this global wealth migration. Per capita, China is a much poorer country than Canada but if we do the math, the number of multi-millionaire (in US dollar terms) households in China is greater than the entire Canadian population. And we are not even considering the wealthy and numerous families in populous places like India, Iran etc. who would love to move to and/or buy property in Metro Vancouver.

In terms of your personal situation, I feel for you. We talk about "making the 1% pay" in this country. Yet, the high income earners in our city actually are a disadvantaged lot relative to the huge, new money that is flowing in here. I have many doctor friends making $200,000 per year+ who are having a real rough time finding decent accommodation for their families. It's ironic that these so-called rich locals are paying the most in taxes and yet get the most abuse from organizations like the Occupy Movement and well-intentioned but naive politicians. This income pales compared to the in flowing money from China, India and other places. Of course, the inflowing wealth tends to report low incomes as the breadwinners work and pay taxes offshore while the "student" and "housewife" parts of the family settle here and pay next to nothing in income taxes to support the services they use. Something will have to be done but I don't see any level of government doing anything as you say for fear of upsetting the real estate market.

You've correctly analyzed the forces that affect local real estate in excellent detail but it's ironic you are still waiting. This is typical of most of my high income, well educated, professional friends. These bright, high income doctors, dentists, lawyers and engineers are wonderful at analyzing every angle of a decision but when it comes to time to make the plunge, they either are too busy or have over analyzed everything to death to the point they are paralyzed with fear. This perhaps explain in part why most of the high income professionals I know are definitely not the wealthiest people I know. They do take nice vacations and often have timeshares they brag about! Meanwhile, those small building contractors and taxi drivers use their overseas family money to parlay their modest savings into fortunes riding this real estate wave upwards (yes, I'm bitter, too).

Townhomes, by the way, are a small, partial help to the housing crisis in Vancouver Metro. They are one of the few solutions to house families in decent accommodation in this horrribly expensive reale state market. We shouldn't look down on this accommodation. In countries like the UK, rowhouses are often premium, extremely desirable housing and perfectly acceptable as a residence for a high income family. Some of the newest town homes developments here are quite good surprisingly. I looked at a few in Marpole and they look very good - well designed, not cheap looking, fairly large with good finishings close to transit. They are not cheap, though, priced in the low seven figure range. Rowhouses may be an OK solution for your needs.



Late to the thread but this has to be one of the better posts I've seen on here in a long time.

Working in the industry in an analytical role, I knew that the majority of detached sales in Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond, Coquitlam were purchased by mainland chinese people. When I bought few years ago I just thought Real estate prices would increase in line with inflation. But who knew that prices would be increasing at 30% per year like they did in 2015. What's crazy is that the later half of 2015 and the start of 2016 isn't slowing down and I think 2016 will be another 5-15% increase. Prices are not going to come down or stop because the main factor - a global economy and the exodus of funds out of China - will continue to drive up desirable Real estate markets in the world.

It's not just Vancouver, look at Australia, Singapore, London etc. However with Vancouver's proximity to Asia and a large local Chinese population, it makes it more attractive. The thing is those other places had politicians that installed real estate restrictions so their prices haven't gone up as much as ours. They still have high real estate prices, but the rate of increase is not as high. I understand that we don't want to slow down our housing/construction industry as it's a main driver of economic growth in BC, but there are policies that can still limit prices but still allow new construction / development.

Many jurisdictions around the world enforce a tax for non-locals. If you are buying a $2 million dollar detached home, what's an extra $15-30K? That's money that can be used towards city services.

I too am house poor, yes my net worth is great due to the increase in prices, but I feel like if I want to start a family, it would be tough as our place is small and isn't in the best of neighborhoods.

But what can we do? How can you move somewhere else when your career, family, friends, social network is all in Vancouver? I can't stand the cold so Vancouver really is the only option.
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sat Jan 30, 2016 2:08 pm

Let's hear more people complaining about selling their property and making money lol
http://www.theprovince.com/homes/bulldo ... um=twitter
 
rofina
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 1529
Joined: Fri Feb 06, 2009 6:39 pm

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:42 pm

Jacobi wrote:

Late to the thread but this has to be one of the better posts I've seen on here in a long time.

Working in the industry in an analytical role, I knew that the majority of detached sales in Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond, Coquitlam were purchased by mainland chinese people. When I bought few years ago I just thought Real estate prices would increase in line with inflation. But who knew that prices would be increasing at 30% per year like they did in 2015. What's crazy is that the later half of 2015 and the start of 2016 isn't slowing down and I think 2016 will be another 5-15% increase. Prices are not going to come down or stop because the main factor - a global economy and the exodus of funds out of China - will continue to drive up desirable Real estate markets in the world.

It's not just Vancouver, look at Australia, Singapore, London etc. However with Vancouver's proximity to Asia and a large local Chinese population, it makes it more attractive. The thing is those other places had politicians that installed real estate restrictions so their prices haven't gone up as much as ours. They still have high real estate prices, but the rate of increase is not as high. I understand that we don't want to slow down our housing/construction industry as it's a main driver of economic growth in BC, but there are policies that can still limit prices but still allow new construction / development.

Many jurisdictions around the world enforce a tax for non-locals. If you are buying a $2 million dollar detached home, what's an extra $15-30K? That's money that can be used towards city services.

I too am house poor, yes my net worth is great due to the increase in prices, but I feel like if I want to start a family, it would be tough as our place is small and isn't in the best of neighborhoods.

But what can we do? How can you move somewhere else when your career, family, friends, social network is all in Vancouver? I can't stand the cold so Vancouver really is the only option.


Sydney, London, Singapore, and Hong Kong all have turned and trending down.

Vancouver remains. Its possible its the last place standing.
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sat Jan 30, 2016 3:50 pm

Those foreign places are much different than Vancouver. There's nothing wrong here.
 
reallyreal
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 418
Joined: Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:17 am

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:04 pm

rofina wrote:
Jacobi wrote:

Late to the thread but this has to be one of the better posts I've seen on here in a long time.

Working in the industry in an analytical role, I knew that the majority of detached sales in Vancouver, Burnaby, Richmond, Coquitlam were purchased by mainland chinese people. When I bought few years ago I just thought Real estate prices would increase in line with inflation. But who knew that prices would be increasing at 30% per year like they did in 2015. What's crazy is that the later half of 2015 and the start of 2016 isn't slowing down and I think 2016 will be another 5-15% increase. Prices are not going to come down or stop because the main factor - a global economy and the exodus of funds out of China - will continue to drive up desirable Real estate markets in the world.

It's not just Vancouver, look at Australia, Singapore, London etc. However with Vancouver's proximity to Asia and a large local Chinese population, it makes it more attractive. The thing is those other places had politicians that installed real estate restrictions so their prices haven't gone up as much as ours. They still have high real estate prices, but the rate of increase is not as high. I understand that we don't want to slow down our housing/construction industry as it's a main driver of economic growth in BC, but there are policies that can still limit prices but still allow new construction / development.

Many jurisdictions around the world enforce a tax for non-locals. If you are buying a $2 million dollar detached home, what's an extra $15-30K? That's money that can be used towards city services.

I too am house poor, yes my net worth is great due to the increase in prices, but I feel like if I want to start a family, it would be tough as our place is small and isn't in the best of neighborhoods.

But what can we do? How can you move somewhere else when your career, family, friends, social network is all in Vancouver? I can't stand the cold so Vancouver really is the only option.


Sydney, London, Singapore, and Hong Kong all have turned and trending down.

Vancouver remains. Its possible its the last place standing.


Wishful thinking. Vancouverites lack backbone. If anybody mentions slowing down foreign ownership, we are branded racists.
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:15 pm

branded racist because that is racist
 
reallyreal
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 418
Joined: Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:17 am

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:36 pm

Not really. Lot of people do fall for your brand of bullying though
 
tdma800
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 2977
Joined: Wed Jan 23, 2008 9:12 am

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:40 pm

Really. It is racist when you exclude people
 
reallyreal
Real Estate Talker
Posts: 418
Joined: Thu Apr 10, 2014 7:17 am

Re: New to Real Estate (Vancouver) - Need Strategic Advice

Sun Jan 31, 2016 5:06 pm

So what? Thats your opinion.
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