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jimtan
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ETB gloats – what's next?

Tue May 05, 2015 4:56 pm

ETB gloats – what's next?


So, ETB is thrilled by the hot market. Even the parking lot at NoBu's MacDonalds is worth $900k. What's next? Can the market keep running up? Will RE return to earth when interest rates rise? How will the transit referendum affect the cities?

No one really knows how fast interest rates will rise. Or, how much hot money comes from Asia. All we are sure of is the glacial pace at which new landed supply comes online.

However, the most controllable factor is the neighborhood you buy into. How will the rise in interest rates affect them? It's all about the demographics.

I'll make this modest prediction. The areas that attract buyers with high financial equity will see a sustained RE market even as rates rise. New buyers have the means to keep buying.

However, the areas where debt is high will see a shakeout as rising rates means less purchasing power. It's all about disposable income.

That's why I tell people to buy in prime areas. You might only be able to afford small. But, you will sleep better. Now, it's the turn of the paper millionaires in Vancouver East and NoBu to worry about who will buy from them!

Let's hear from the winners in life. What do you think? What's your time horizon? What does it mean if autumn is also a sellers market? Is it time to cash out if spring 2016 is hot too?

I'm sure that we will also hear from the losers and Johnny-come-latelies. What's new?
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WhipMaster
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Tue May 05, 2015 5:15 pm

Brown noser? Do you really care? Why are you making a big deal out of nothing? :shock:
Do we ask if you got your daily fill kissing Gregor's butt? .... hahahaha Suckhole! :lol:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
jimtan
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Tue May 05, 2015 7:09 pm

With a NDP majority government, they could do anything!!!!! :evil:

Short term, hot money into BC. Long term, a BC NDP government if the Alberta NDP does well. It's so exciting!!!!! :!:


Brown noser? Do you really care? Why are you making a big deal out of nothing? :shock:
Do we ask if you got your daily fill kissing Gregor's butt? .... hahahaha Suckhole! :lol:
Yes! NOTHING sums up your contribution. :roll:
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WhipMaster
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Tue May 05, 2015 7:25 pm

Suckhole, you are like a gossipy school girl.
Who cares if ETB gloats or doesn't?
Why are you trying to pick a fight?
Why don't you go find Gregor and stick your nose where the sun don't shine, instead? :lol:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
tapioca
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Wed May 06, 2015 6:15 am

Oh, JT. You're so cute.
 
jimtan
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Wed May 06, 2015 6:44 am

...Why are you trying to pick a fight?
Why don't you go find Gregor and stick your nose where the sun don't shine, instead? :lol:
:mrgreen:

You abuse people so casually that you don't realize that you're doing it! How do you like it when you're on the receiving end? :roll:

BTW, don't suppose you have an outlook for spring 2016? :)

Suggest you make yourself useful. Find Sunshine and ask to polish his shoes!!!! :D
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WhipMaster
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Wed May 06, 2015 7:01 am

Jim Brown nose Tan:[quote]Find Sunshine and ask to polish his shoes!!!! :D[/quote]
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Suggest you won't find any sunshine there Jim..... but keep trying! :D
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
jimtan
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Wed May 06, 2015 7:32 am

Your posts says more about you than about me! :roll:
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WhipMaster
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Wed May 06, 2015 7:37 am

You're the one kissing Gregor's ass.
Is that why you call him Sunshine?
In case you don't know, you won't find any sunshine there.
But keep tryin'!.....suggest you tie a rope around your waist in case you fall in! :lol:

Haw! Haw! Haw! :mrgreen:
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Wed May 06, 2015 10:48 am

"jimtan"
I'll make this modest prediction. The areas that attract buyers with high financial equity will see a sustained RE market even as rates rise. New buyers have the means to keep buying.
that's a simplistic and incorrect analysis.
It's not the "area" with high equity buyers, it's the property type. Detached buyers are the highest equity buyers in the system...the lowest are condo buyers.

i.e.
west side buyers might be using full cash to buy their detached homes, but condo buyers in the same neighbourhood are definitely not, and probably using
minimal downpayments if it's their first purchase.

you'll need to amend your prediction
 
jimtan
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Wed May 06, 2015 11:31 am

that's a simplistic and incorrect analysis.
It's not the "area" with high equity buyers, it's the property type. Detached buyers are the highest equity buyers in the system...the lowest are condo buyers.

i.e.
west side buyers might be using full cash to buy their detached homes, but condo buyers in the same neighbourhood are definitely not, and probably using
minimal downpayments if it's their first purchase.

you'll need to amend your prediction
You may have a point. However, affordability affects houses as well as condo. Even in the West Side, there will be entry level houses that will be affected by rate rises. On the other hand, the +$2m condo will be insulated (relative to other condo) from rate increases.

I look forward to every correction. I can learn more about RE from playing defense than during the periods where I am merely lucky. :)
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eyesthebye2
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Wed May 06, 2015 11:42 am

that's a simplistic and incorrect analysis.
It's not the "area" with high equity buyers, it's the property type. Detached buyers are the highest equity buyers in the system...the lowest are condo buyers.

i.e.
west side buyers might be using full cash to buy their detached homes, but condo buyers in the same neighbourhood are definitely not, and probably using
minimal downpayments if it's their first purchase.

you'll need to amend your prediction
You may have a point. However, affordability affects houses as well as condo. Even in the West Side, there will be entry level houses that will be affected by rate rises. On the other hand, the +$2m condo will be insulated (relative to other condo) from rate increases.

I look forward to every correction. I can learn more about RE from playing defense than during the periods where I am merely lucky. :)

Real estate isn't a game to me. I needed one property and therefore only needed to be lucky once
 
Geyser
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Wed May 06, 2015 1:33 pm

"jimtan"
I'll make this modest prediction. The areas that attract buyers with high financial equity will see a sustained RE market even as rates rise. New buyers have the means to keep buying.
that's a simplistic and incorrect analysis.
It's not the "area" with high equity buyers, it's the property type. Detached buyers are the highest equity buyers in the system...the lowest are condo buyers.

i.e.
west side buyers might be using full cash to buy their detached homes, but condo buyers in the same neighbourhood are definitely not, and probably using
minimal downpayments if it's their first purchase.

you'll need to amend your prediction
I'm trying hard to follow your logic. Are you suggesting that the buyers of multimillion dollar condos have less money than the buyers of old Eastside crack shacks who need CMHC insured loans and depend on renting their basements in order to meet their mortgage payments? Really???

Do you know that the most expensive condo sold in Vancover recently fetched over $50 million. Even the many condo buyers who pay betweenh $2 million and $5 million can hardly be described as the lowest equity buyers in the system. Once again you appear to be judging the entire condo market based on that run down and sprawling old multi-family social housing complex on the block next to you. Trust me, not all multifamily developments are as shabby as the stuff in your 'hood.

You should take the time to drive in to Vancouver Downtown and check out what's been built here in recent years. The folks who live in your distant Eastside neighbourhood may be on the bottom of the socio-economic ladder but the owners of the Fairmont Estate condos, the Shangrila condos, the Trump Tower condos, etc., etc., etc., are clearly well ahead of you and your ilk. Even very ordinary condos in the right location routinely go for $1K or more per sq. ft. That's quite a bit more than your old shack.

A friend of mine just paid $1,600 per sq. ft. for a surprisingly unexceptional unit in the Trump Tower. It's all about location, the Downtown core is a good one and you are in a bad one. :D
In fond memory of Taipan, a model of modesty, decency, dignity and tolerance. Long may we all prosper from the tremendous legacy of worldly wisdom and specialized real estate knowledge which he left in the "Arguments" thread.
 
eyesthebye2
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Wed May 06, 2015 5:52 pm

"Geyser"

You should take the time to drive in to Vancouver Downtown and check out what's been built here in recent years. The folks who live in your distant Eastside neighbourhood may be on the bottom of the socio-economic ladder
LOL
east Vancouver detached benchmark $1,046,000
Vancouver west apartment benchmark $524,000
 
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WhipMaster
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Re: ETB gloats – what's next?

Wed May 06, 2015 9:04 pm

Geyser:
The folks who live in your distant Eastside neighbourhood may be on the bottom of the socio-economic ladder but the owners of the Fairmont Estate condos, the Shangrila condos, ....
... Geyser, you are showing your elitist side again. :D
Hoo~Cudda~Not~Nod~ed????? :-)

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