Vancouver RE turned on its own.
Vancouver turned due to a daily barrage of bad economic news from the US - including dire housing news.
Remember? Bank failures, mortgage defaults, etc.
Where were you?
BZZZZZZT!! Wrong! Let's stick to facts and argue about interpretation later. Greater Van HPI hit top in Jan/Feb 2008, was flat through May 2008 (ie shifted momentum from strong growth to flat during the peak buying season / typical price increase season), then starts precipitous declines May-onward...
http://www.google.ca/imgres?um=1&hl=en& ... s:16,i:126
TSX still pushing 14,000 early September 2008. 20% higher than it is today. That's not negative sentiment in our most important indicator of consumer confidence. Simple facts. Fonz read good.
Maybe there were a few news stories prior to September 2008 that savvy analysts / investors understood as being harbingers of danger, but the TSX was 20% higher at start of Sept 2008 than it is today, and this was nine months after the market momentum shifted under its own bloat.
I think Jesse's spot-on that liquidity issues and unemployment into 2009 probably accelerated the downward trend, but this thing turned 100% prior to any spillover from sentiment about the Global Financial Crisis, which wasn't even the "Global Financial Crisis" until October 2008. In fact it wasn't even formally a "recession" in Oct 2008.