Geyser wrote:Snakey, I'm trying to follow your convoluted logic. You say Vancouver is in for a massive price drop (which could be true, or not). What I don't understand is your belief than ski shacks in the Interior won't be impacted by the massive Provincial economic slowdown which is likely to follow a major real estate collapse on the coast.
And what did I say? I said they already have been. Either you dont listen or dont want to listen or both.
Geyser wrote:Do you assume that the market for those Interior properties excludes the population of the Lower Mainland? If so, why?
Do you not think that a collapsing RE market in Vancouver will have ripple effects on recreational properties throughout the Province? If not, why not?
Geyser wrote:You keep saying that you paid the 2005/2006 price. That might be so (assuming you're not fibbing again) but you completely overlook the fact that you also paid the 2012 price because if it was worth any more they would have sold it for more. QED!
Example of a lack of understanding between price and value.
Geyser wrote:So you just bought a recreational property at the current price in Province where you are convinced the major population centers are about to see RE prices tank by 50%, but you don't think it will have any impact on the prices in the Interior.
And do you know what youll see? The last desperate hope of Vancouver owners with properties in Sun Peaks and other ski resorts, evaporate and their asking prices fall back to 2005/2006 prices.
There are many properties up there that are asking 20% - 35% over market. In other words they are priced and stalled at around 2008 value levels as asking prices.
And there are buyers, who are buying, but the property must be priced at realistic 2005/2006 levels to be shifted.
(Let us also remember that away in Vancouver after 2008 prices increased another 28%. Talk about crazy!)
Taipan wrote:See thrillseekers, the reality is that all property is connected on a macro level. It all rises at similiar times when influenced by easy credit, and as that is withdrawn it contracts with a ripple affect.
The centre rises first in the bubble and becomes the biggest bubble and that ripples out into the province. When the contraction commences, it starts at the outside and squeezes back in.
The centre of the bubble becomes the biggest part of the bubble, and remains inflated for longer, while the further you move away the affects are less and shorter.
So all property in BC, all property across Canada is affected by macro financial settings. As we have spoken about again and again and again. A credit bubble causing a property bubble.
I show you properties that even 400km away from Vancouver are influenced by the mania. The owners live in Vancouver and are influenced by the mania.
They set their prices accordingly. Were the prices like that 10 years ago. (Meaning massively over inflated) Nah!
But as they money dries up, the ripple effect recedes to the centre where the final major bubbles pop.
And that is happening right now. Just as buyers in general in SP have been on strike, now we can see that the buyers are going on strike right throughout the province.
In Vancouver there are now over 17,000 people trying to sell their properties wondering where all the buyers went. And the numbers just keep increasing.
And ratty I used proper buying discipline by not buying at prices you tout as sensible. Thats why i have a mill in cash to plonk down on a relaxing holiday home and you dont.
Im not looking to flip it for a spec profit, im not going to develop it, im going to use it, im going to enjoy it, and ill probably keep it till I die.
And in that time I will be surrounded by my children, my family my friends and most likely grandchildren.