Why Vancouver will crash.

[Taipan]

And your answer jabba

Snakey, I'm trying to follow your convoluted logic. You say Vancouver is in for a massive price drop (which could be true, or not). What I don't understand is your belief than ski shacks in the Interior won't be impacted by the massive Provincial economic slowdown which is likely to follow a major real estate collapse on the coast.

And what did I say? I said they already have been. Either you dont listen or dont want to listen or both.

Do you assume that the market for those Interior properties excludes the population of the Lower Mainland? If so, why?
Do you not think that a collapsing RE market in Vancouver will have ripple effects on recreational properties throughout the Province? If not, why not?

See below.

You keep saying that you paid the 2005/2006 price. That might be so (assuming you're not fibbing again) but you completely overlook the fact that you also paid the 2012 price because if it was worth any more they would have sold it for more. QED!

Example of a lack of understanding between price and value.

So you just bought a recreational property at the current price in Province where you are convinced the major population centers are about to see RE prices tank by 50%, but you don't think it will have any impact on the prices in the Interior.

And do you know what youll see? The last desperate hope of Vancouver owners with properties in Sun Peaks and other ski resorts, evaporate and their asking prices fall back to 2005/2006 prices.

There are many properties up there that are asking 20% - 35% over market. In other words they are priced and stalled at around 2008 value levels as asking prices.

And there are buyers, who are buying, but the property must be priced at realistic 2005/2006 levels to be shifted.

(Let us also remember that away in Vancouver after 2008 prices increased another 28%. Talk about crazy!)

See thrillseekers, the reality is that all property is connected on a macro level. It all rises at similiar times when influenced by easy credit, and as that is withdrawn it contracts with a ripple affect.

The centre rises first in the bubble and becomes the biggest bubble and that ripples out into the province. When the contraction commences, it starts at the outside and squeezes back in.

The centre of the bubble becomes the biggest part of the bubble, and remains inflated for longer, while the further you move away the affects are less and shorter.

So all property in BC, all property across Canada is affected by macro financial settings. As we have spoken about again and again and again. A credit bubble causing a property bubble.

I show you properties that even 400km away from Vancouver are influenced by the mania. The owners live in Vancouver and are influenced by the mania.

They set their prices accordingly. Were the prices like that 10 years ago. (Meaning massively over inflated) Nah!

But as they money dries up, the ripple effect recedes to the centre where the final major bubbles pop.

And that is happening right now. Just as buyers in general in SP have been on strike, now we can see that the buyers are going on strike right throughout the province.

In Vancouver there are now over 17,000 people trying to sell their properties wondering where all the buyers went. And the numbers just keep increasing.

And ratty I used proper buying discipline by not buying at prices you tout as sensible. Thats why i have a mill in cash to plonk down on a relaxing holiday home and you dont.

Im not looking to flip it for a spec profit, im not going to develop it, im going to use it, im going to enjoy it, and ill probably keep it till I die.

And in that time I will be surrounded by my children, my family my friends and most likely grandchildren.

[Geyser]

The maket value is not what some dreamer lists it at to test the market, the market value is what somebody will pay for it. In the case of your (claimed) purchase, the vendor couldn't find anybody willing to pay more than you. Get it?

[Taipan]

The maket value is not what some dreamer lists it at to test the market, the market value is what somebody will pay for it. In the case of your (claimed) purchase, the vendor couldn't find anybody willing to pay more than you. Get it?

Just like other adjacent sales showing a retracement in prices back to 2005/2006 VALUE .

If he had listed at Vancouver prices it would still be on the market with the other Vancouver zombies asking for "their price".

[Warren12]

The maket value is not what some dreamer lists it at to test the market, the market value is what somebody will pay for it. In the case of your (claimed) purchase, the vendor couldn't find anybody willing to pay more than you. Get it?

Just like other adjacent sales showing a retracement in prices back to 2005/2006 VALUE .

If he had listed at Vancouver prices it would still be on the market with the other Vancouver zombies asking for "their price".

Still doesn't make sense. The market value is what properties are exchanging hands for on any given day. You paid 2012 market value for your property, end of story.

Were other comparables to the one you bought selling for 40% more on the day before and after you bought?

[Geyser]

Thanks Warren12, it's nice to see you trying to help Taipan understand the concept of supply and demand and how it impacts prices but I think he needs to read some books on property valuation before he'll really get it. There are lots of mail order courses on the subject and some might even send him an associate diploma he could hang proudly on his office wall.

It's too bad for him that he didn't get advice from a qualified property appraiser or even an experienced developer before buying in a recreational market whose RE prices are supported almost entirely by buyers from places like Vancouver. Currently Vancouver homeowners are feeling the "wealth effect" of high property valuations but if Vancouver prices collapse as he constantly predicts, they will take the Provincial economy into the toilet. (Taipan likes toilets but that's another issue)

If one of the primary pools of Sun Peaks buyers (Vancouverites) are suddenly feeling poor it's hard to imagine them lining up to buy ski-chalets in Sun Peaks, at any price. A dearth of buyers means plunging prices and as a general rule, discretionary purchases of toys (like ski chalets, yachts, light aircraft, etc.,) get hit hardest.

This is not rocket science but it eludes Snakey's limited intellect. "There are none so blind as those who will not see."

[eyesthebye]

Thanks Warren12, it's nice to see you trying to help Taipan understand the concept of supply and demand and how it impacts prices but I think he needs to read some books on property valuation before he'll really get it. There are lots of mail order courses on the subject and some might even send him an associate diploma he could hang proudly on his office wall.

It's too bad for him that he didn't get advice from a qualified property appraiser or even an experienced developer before buying in a recreational market whose RE prices are supported almost entirely by buyers from places like Vancouver. Currently Vancouver homeowners are feeling the "wealth effect" of high property valuations but if Vancouver prices collapse as he constantly predicts, they will take the Provincial economy into the toilet. (Taipan likes toilets but that's another issue)

If one of the primary pools of Sun Peaks buyers (Vancouverites) are suddenly feeling poor it's hard to imagine them lining up to buy ski-chalets in Sun Peaks, at any price. A dearth of buyers means plunging prices and as a general rule, discretionary purchases of toys (like ski chalets, yachts, light aircraft, etc.,) get hit hardest.

This is not rocket science but it eludes Snakey's limited intellect. "There are none so blind as those who will not see."

I think Taipan is loaded and doesn't have the same appreciation for "value-spending" that us mere mortals do.
Nice position to have

[tdma800]

www.vancouverspecial.com

[Geyser]

More than "loaded", almost certainly one of the richest and wisest men on the planet who mixes easily with royalty and senior statesman, many of whom are his personal friends. It is our great privilege that a celebrity of such lofty stature not only visits this humble forum but actually spends most of his waking hours here.

We should all be honored by his constant and enduring presence and scoop up the many words of wisdom he casts before us.

[timber2012]

I wonder how long this circle jerk will continue?

Sooner one of you climaxes, the better - then we can all move on.

[jesse1]

I think Taipan is loaded and doesn't have the same appreciation for "value-spending" that us mere mortals do.

So I wonder what's with all the grief with him supposedly overpaying for a ski chalet? Sounds like dude wants to ski.

[Geyser]

No grief, just amusement that he continues to blather about our impending RE crash and his own expertise in predicting these things, whilst simultaneously buying recreational property within easy driving distance. Because the Lower Mainland is a major supplier of buyers for Sun Peaks, it seems unlikely that those prices will be unaffected if Vancouver RE really does experience his predicted 50% drop, how he can convince himself otherwise is a mystery to me.

This leaves me with the following conclusions to choose from:

(1) Taipan is clueless.

(2) He doesn't really believe we are in a huge bubble.

(3) He believes that the normal forces of supply and demand will be suspended in his favour.

(4) He has waited years before buying but he doesn't mind missing the chance to buy his property at a much lower price in another year or two.

I favour choice (1) but, in view of his giant ego, (3) is also a distinct possibility.

[FuturePorscheOwner]

I dont' even know where Sun Peaks is and I have lived in Vancouver my whole life. The funny thing is if I ask a 100 people, I bet only 15-20 people probably know I bet.

Taipan, your dead wrong about Vancouver, it the heart of BC, yeah it is expensive to live here, but its still the heart and soul of the province.

[jesse1]

he doesn't mind missing the chance to buy his property at a much lower price in another year or two

There may be other reasons he decided to buy; you don't know, only that he ostensibly saved money by not buying a few years ago. Being an "idiot" myself I am not about to throw stones

[Taipan]

Here you go - pictures worth a thousand words.

1) Is where you are in current pricing.
2)This is where many vancouver based vendors still are with asking prices for recreational properties and they sit on the market for years and dont sell.
3)This is the current market, with numerous sales to support this evidence.

Please note: not only how far Vancouver will fall to get back to reality but also the normal overshoot zone.

Markets go higher then expected and fall further then expected.

And yes I could see the property I bought fall a little more - but not like the massive falls you are going to experience.

Now lets see how many clueless comments we get!