Well you’ve been hearing it from me for ages. No market runs up like this without crashing. Cause too much finance, interest rates too low, and terms that were too long.
A few of the uber bulls continue to deny the precipice they have now fallen over forecasting drops of up to 15%. After which it will continue to quickly regain that previous high and keep going up.
Of course only delusional people would believe that rubbish. A correction of similar proportions to 2008 and then a rebound upwards.
The F.I.T fuel has been taken away from the fire. Seems that nasty nasty
Garth Turner had the audacity to pick the phone up and had a talk to Sam Wyatt.“This market is collapsing.” Not every day that you hear those words sliding out of a real estate agent, since most know only six words: ‘It’s a great time to buy.’ Not for Sam Wyatt. This, he’s telling the denizens of Vancouver’s flush Westside, is the time to bail.
He’s right, of course. Supply is overwhelming demand, and the victim will be price. The stats don’t lie. The average number of detached listings in the hood over the last three years was 589. In the darkest days following the GFC, when panic cause a wave of selling, active listings never exceeded 1053. But today there are almost 1,100 houses for sale. Says Wyatt, “This is a very serious situation.”
As you may know, there’s now a 10-month supply of houses for sale in what was the hottest market in the land a year ago. Below five months is a seller’s market. Between five and eight is that mythical ‘balanced’ territory. Above that, barbarians storm the gate.
As Wyatt told me last night, “I see this moving towards a 40% drop in prices, perhaps even 50%. The smart money is getting out now, but well down the road we’ll be seeing a massive buying opportunity.”
Now who could have imagined that before it happened. Qalifications in real estate valuation would have tipped you off long before the realtors saw it unfold before them.
Many bulls, think that real estate is liquid. And yes they are partly correct but only in a rapidly rising market. When the market peaks and starts to fall it is one of the least liquid forms of all assets.
But see Sam has the right idea.Vancouver's real estate market is getting and is going to get hit from both ends. So, now that you are thoroughly depressed, here is the bright light: IF YOU SELL NOW, YOU WILL STILL BE SELLING NEAR THE TOP OF THE MARKET. If you plan to sell, you will need to price BELOW the most recent comparable sales prices. If you don't do this, your listing will stagnate. I am pleased that this methodology has produced 4 sales in the last 30 days for my clients in a market were most homes are not selling. In one case we had a multiple offer with a significant over asking result and in another we negotiated a full asking price sale. Do visit my web site to view recent sales.
And now its happening! There is lots of pain out there. For the innocent i feel sorry - some of us have tried to warn them. As for the greedy - well they will take no notice, smug in their own misguided self belief, and they deserve whats coming!
Geezer: "What if somebody listened to Taipan and doesnt buy".
Well, they will thank their lucky stars, that they arent one of the thousands of miserable souls who cant sell their properties in 2013!