looking for a safe, vibrant neighbourhood in Burnaby to buy

[curious]

I would suggest to buy near the best school.

[intel1]

Hey,

I would go with what most people have already mentioned on the thread. It would be better IMO if you can at least hold off for a few months if not more. With a hot sizzling summer not having done well for RE in Vancouver (unlike the usual!), there will be enough choices to buy during the cold & rainy winter season.

We are also looking to buy in Burbs but are more interested areas in areas around Metrotown (no South Slope though!). Another area that you may also want to explore is the Government Street area .. big lots although more expensive. Plus you have got some decent schools for the kids.

Good luck!

[Lost Soul]

I have a long record on this forum for being a long term bull who happily concedes he doesn't know what the short term trend will be. However, in recent times many things have happened which point to our extraordinary upward cycle finally coming to an end, perhaps a very dramatic end.

I don't know if that is going to happen but if I was a renter wanting to buy right now I would take a deep breath and slow down. There is enough writing on the wall to signal extreme caution, very few pundits are suggesting prices are going up in the short term but lots of others are confident that a major crash is coming.

In the past the bears lacked credibility for a number of reasons but most people recognize that RE markets are cyclical and most of the signals I'm seeing suggest the inevitable downturn is already upon us. Why not just hold off for a few months and try to get a better understanding of what is unfolding, it just might save you a small fortune.

I still think that Vancouver prices will be higher at some future date but it's beginning to look like it might be a very long time before that happens.

Whatever decision you make I sincerely wish you good luck.

Sounds like you're suggesting timing the market.

[Geyser]

Your welcome.

[jojuchst]

Both Van and Willingdon Heights area are great neighbourhoods. They are so close to D/T by transit or car.

I like the Willingdon Heights area (north south between Hastings + Parker, and east west Boundary + Willingdon maybe Alpha St) over Vancouver Heights (N of Hastings and W of Willingdon/Alpha) A big negative with Van Heights is the Chevron oil refinery by the water at the north end of Willingdon.

There are certain days that you can smell something that's silvery (sorry my best description). So if you're concerned about air pollution then this is definitely a big negative. With the refinery also comes the oil tanker trucks which go up and down Willingdon, noisy, slow and taking up the entire block at the 4way stop.

The other negative affecting both Willingdon Height but more so Van Heights are the high voltage hydro towers that run north down the middle of Boundary.
Without these towers the Northern part of Boundary would have million dollar unobstructed view of D/T. Even with these towers there are still quite a few multi-million dollar houses built there. Check out the 2 that are between Pandora and Triumph.

Both areas are very flat but I find that east-west running sidewalks are good but for whatever reason the north-south ones are not.
There are quite a few section missing so if you want to go to Hastings your path might not be all paved sidewalks.

Good elementary schools, popular St. Helens pirvate elem, a French Immersion high school, and Asian prefered Bby North High School.
Very good shops and dinning along Hastings (peartree rest.), grocery stores (triple A, red apple, safeway), pharmacy, library and Eileen Dailly Pool not to mention the BC Conservatory of Music, Staccatto Studio.

The Firma and Tramonto are 2 new condo above shops buildings on Hastings. With more of these newer buildings you can get a Kitsilano Kerrisdale feel.
Hate that HOV lane which takes away the Hastings parking during rush hour though.

[Geyser]

There are certain days that you can smell something that's silvery (sorry my best description). So if you're concerned about air pollution then this is definitely a big negative.

That's a very good point. I rember reading that the area around the PNE has the worst air quality in the City, something about the prevailing winds combined with the land forming a natural basin which traps all the crap blowing east from the rest of the city. You can often see the thick brown haze over that area when you fly into YVR but I've never noticed it when driving through the area so it can't be in the same league as some parts of Los Angeles.

I can't remember the source of my reading as it was some years ago, I don't recall them mentioning the refinery which I can see could impact Burnaby Heights and Kensington when the wind changes.

That's a pity because there is a very nice looking neighbourhood bordered by Willingdon, E. Hastings and the Burrard Inlet.

[jojuchst]

BC Air Quality: http://www.bcairquality.ca/readings/

[Lost Soul]

Your welcome.

"Welcome" to what??? Sounds like the cat's got your tongue for any response that doesn't lead to the answer 'yes'.

[Geyser]

Geyser wrote:
I have a long record on this forum for being a long term bull who happily concedes he doesn't know what the short term trend will be. However, in recent times many things have happened which point to our extraordinary upward cycle finally coming to an end, perhaps a very dramatic end.

I don't know if that is going to happen but if I was a renter wanting to buy right now I would take a deep breath and slow down. There is enough writing on the wall to signal extreme caution, very few pundits are suggesting prices are going up in the short term but lots of others are confident that a major crash is coming.

In the past the bears lacked credibility for a number of reasons but most people recognize that RE markets are cyclical and most of the signals I'm seeing suggest the inevitable downturn is already upon us. Why not just hold off for a few months and try to get a better understanding of what is unfolding, it just might save you a small fortune.

I still think that Vancouver prices will be higher at some future date but it's beginning to look like it might be a very long time before that happens.

Whatever decision you make I sincerely wish you good luck.

I presented a cautionary note preceded by the admission that I (like everybody else) don't really know what is going to happen. If that fits your definition of "timing the market" I'm happy for you. It doesn't fit mine but I'm not about to enter another endless debate about semantics. Sorry about that.

[HAM]

OMG, chill out.

I "like" the heights.
Is that better?

The knee jerks around here are getting more kicks than our soccer teams

Chill? You're the one that just flipped out. Yes, I understand your feelings right now. You re scared, nervous, shaking, everyday as you hear nothing but bad news on real estate. You bought in 2009. So that puts you at risk of losing some serious equity in your home. I would be scared too if I were in your shoes. So I've avoided the whole situation by selling last fall. I'm comfortably renting and watching this massive bubble pop in all of your faces.

[Lost Soul]

I presented a cautionary note preceded by the admission that I (like everybody else) don't really know what is going to happen. If that fits your definition of "timing the market" I'm happy for you. It doesn't fit mine but I'm not about to enter another endless debate about semantics. Sorry about that.

Thanks, I'm quite happy to take your "cautionary note" as an admission that you are recommending timing the market -- if you aren't making such a recommendation, you wouldn't make this comment but simply tell people to buy since you believe any time is as good as another because one can't time the market.

[Taipan]

I presented a cautionary note preceded by the admission that I (like everybody else) don't really know what is going to happen. If that fits your definition of "timing the market" I'm happy for you. It doesn't fit mine but I'm not about to enter another endless debate about semantics. Sorry about that.

In fact if a person understood about F.I.T. you would recognise that you no longer have a market but a manipulated bubble, caused by politicians.

Anybody who buys a stock in the stock market at a p/e of 6 times, and the earnings dont change yet people will buy it off you in the market at 25x, then any idiot knows to sell. Apparently not on this forum for some posters.

Its not about timing the market. Its simply understanding when an asset is undervalued and overvalued.

Any time after 2007 your market was over valued. Then it became rediculously over valued. The price to earnings was through the roof.

Fat Cat I like that. Fat Cat and friends

[Geyser]

Its not about timing the market. Its simply understanding when an asset is undervalued and overvalued.

This is one occassion when I agree with Snakey, market timing is a whole different thing. It is generally the reserve of flippers but I can see the difficulty you are having grasping this concept so I have cut and pasted a few things which might help you. If, after reading these, you still can't grasp it you may be better off just abandoning your efforts because I cannot be more helpful.

Read and learn!

Market timers believe short-term price movements are important and often predictable; this is why they often refer to statistical anomalies, recurring patterns, and other data that supports a correlation between certain information and stock prices. A market timer's investment horizon can be months, days, or even hours or minutes.

Relative lack of liquidity and excessive transaction costs make market timing much less attractive in the real estate market, hence passive investing tends to be more popular. Passive investors in real estate evaluate an investment's long-term potential and rely more on fundamental analysis of the property value, its location, condition, quality, revenue stream, financing conditions and long term potential for capital gains when deciding whether to buy or sell.

Contrary to the above, you imply that all buying and selling decisions represent market timing - that is where we differ. I understand your confusion over semantics but, hopefully, the above paragraph helps. Your narrow and rigid definition of "market timing" is not totally without merit but it is one which I (and probably most others) do not share.

Personally, I favour the long term hold as a primary strategy. Here is a quote from one "Luigi Frascati" who's philosophy is similar to my own:

"The untold secret of real estate investing is always to buy and never to sell. That is the guaranteed path to wealth. As this, however, is not always possible, the second best alternative is to act when one’s own circumstances warrant, without paying much attention to the cycles that may or may not take place."

In the case of the OP, his circumstances suggest that by buying now he would need to assume crippling long-term debt at a time of "emergency" low interest rates. Regardless of any potential drop in property values, his own circumstances warrant a cautious approach. The potential for a large correction should add substantially to that caution but not necessarily be the main driver of his decision.

Get it now???

[eyesthebye]

OMG, chill out.

I "like" the heights.
Is that better?

The knee jerks around here are getting more kicks than our soccer teams

Chill? You're the one that just flipped out. Yes, I understand your feelings right now. You re scared, nervous, shaking, everyday as you hear nothing but bad news on real estate. You bought in 2009. So that puts you at risk of losing some serious equity in your home. I would be scared too if I were in your shoes. So I've avoided the whole situation by selling last fall. I'm comfortably renting and watching this massive bubble pop in all of your faces.

a big LOL to ya HAM

[Geyser]

ETB:

a big LOL to ya HAM

Saddam's information Minister:

"There are no American infidels in Baghdad. Never!"

"My feelings - as usual - we will slaughter them all"

"Our initial assessment is that they will all die"

"I blame Al-Jazeera - they are marketing for the Americans!"

"God will roast their stomachs in hell at the hands of Iraqis."

"They're coming to surrender or be burned in their tanks."

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!"

"Be assured. Baghdad is safe, protected"