Hurun Wealth Report 2012

British Columbia Real Estate issues, advice, questions.

Moderator: admin

Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby unicas » Tue Jul 31, 2012 7:59 pm

Vancouver and Toronto used to be the No.1 and No.2 destination of China`s private wealth export. Now the door is pretty much shut. Would be interesting to see who is the replacement. I bet California cities like SF.


http://www.hurun.net/usen/NewsShow.aspx?nid=283

Chinese individuals with more than RMB 10 million (equivalent to US$1.6 million) broke through the one million mark for the first time, reaching a record 1,020,000 individuals, an increase of 6.3% over the previous year. Furthermore, China is home to 63,500 super-rich, defined as individuals with RMB 100 million (equivalent to US$16 million), an increase of 5.8% from that of last year. At present, for every 1300 persons in China, there exists one millionaire. As of the end of 2010, there were 960,000 millionaires and 60,000 super-rich, whilst the end of 2009 recorded 875,000 millionaires and 55,000 super-rich.

The report denotes China’s millionaires as those with personal wealth of RMB 10 million or more. The report takes into account both fixed assets and investable assets. Fixed assets include self-owned listed or unlisted stock rights, owner-occupied real estate, and investment real estate. Investable assets consist of shares, funds, debenture shares, deposits and insurance.

Hurun Reportconducted face-to-face interviews with 503 of these millionaires, including 54 billionaires. The findings provide a fascinating insight into the demographics and lifestyles of wealthy Chinese.

84% of China’s wealthiest individuals were concentrated in the Eastern, Northern and Southern regions of China. Beijing is home to the most number of China’s wealthy individuals, with 179,000 millionaires and 10,500 super-rich. Guangdong follows closely behind in second, with 167,000 millionaires and 9,500 super-rich. Coming in third is Shanghai, with 140,000 millionaires and 8,200 super-rich.

Rising property prices and a fast-growing GDP have been the key drivers for the growth in the number of Chinese millionaires. In 2011, China’s GDP grew by 9.2%. Property

prices in 2010 rose across the country by 13.7% according to a report published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, with luxury property prices rising even faster – luxury property prices in Shanghai are up 21% from last year.

Travel is the biggest area of consumption for the Chinese millionaire. They spend an average break of 20 days a year. The main reasons for going abroad are holidays and business. Sanya (Hainan Island), Hong Kong and Yunnan are the top three destinations in China, while France continues to be the most popular international destination, followed by the US and Australia.

Although the consumption of luxury goods is still a predominant habit amongst the rich and super-rich, this year saw an increasing number of millionaires begin to pursue a low-key lifestyle. Spending on their children’s education continues to increase, with a clear preference towards sending their children abroad. This is accompanied by the rise of emigration out of China and investment in overseas real estate. Although new housing market regulation policies were introduced in 2011, resulting in a downturn in the domestic real estate market, buying property, however, is still the preferred investment choice for millionaires, with interest in fixed income and stock investments also on the rise.

The importance and emphasis which Chinese millionaires place towards education is reflected in more than 85% of millionaires planning to send their children abroad for education, whilst among billionaires, this figure is 90%. The United States, the United Kingdom and Canada are the favorite destinations for education, while Canada, the United States and Singapore are the favorite destinations for immigration purposes. More than 16% Chinese millionaires have already emigrated or have already submitted immigration applications, while 44% have plans to do so in the near future. The boom in overseas education for their children and a desire to live abroad has driven Chinese millionaires to invest more readily overseas. One third of millionaires own investable assets overseas, with this figure reaching 55% for millionaires in Southern China. Overseas assets account for 19% of millionaires’ total assets.

Comparing media investment of Top 10 luxury brands across different categories, the cosmetics category ranked 1st, with television being the key media type accounting for 76% of its media investment. The alcohol category came in 2nd place with almost 90% of its total media investment on television, driven mostly by local premium alcohol brands. The property category preferred media exposure on newspapers while the jewellry category invested almost 60% on television. Finally, the watch category invested quite evenly across television, newspapers and magazines.


GroupM Knowledge - Hurun Wealth Report 2012
unicas
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 1257
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2008 10:35 pm

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby vanpro » Tue Jul 31, 2012 8:05 pm

Still, the number of Chinese millionaires and billionaires is a mere pittance compared to the US for example especially on per capita terms and still way lower than US even in absolute terms (i.e. even before adjusting for population difference). China's per capita income is still Third World level.
vanpro
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 1863
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 12:32 pm

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby unicas » Fri Aug 03, 2012 10:18 pm

Still, the number of Chinese millionaires and billionaires is a mere pittance compared to the US for example especially on per capita terms and still way lower than US even in absolute terms (i.e. even before adjusting for population difference). China's per capita income is still Third World level.


Canada has always had more Olympic medal than the U.S. on per capita basis. Vanpro want to argue with anybody that Canada is the sports super power instead of the "Mythical" U.S. you know want kind of look you will get?

Have you ever read from anywhere that large percentage of American millionaires wanting to immigrate to Canada? You can't provide it. Not now. As result, the data you use to support their impact on our real estate is as good as garbage, just like you keep throwing RPC reports showing Vancouverites need 92% of pretax income to carry a home. Garbage. I actually believe it will happen as America fall further into decay, as more and more cities, townships, states are bankrupted. There will be more riots in the U.S. as the society becomes disordered. We will see Americans lining up at Canadian Embassy. But until then, they have none or close to none impact on Vancouver real estate market no matter how many millionaires they have.

You probably are less 10 years away from getting your old age pension. You should be thankful you grew up at a time where you did not have to compete with the yellow perils to get into UBC, to be able to get a professional job without worrying about your job being outsourced overseas. If you are born 50 years later, you have no chance.
unicas
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 1257
Joined: Mon Feb 25, 2008 10:35 pm

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby Geyser » Sat Aug 04, 2012 12:01 pm

Vanpro wrote:
Still, the number of Chinese millionaires and billionaires is a mere pittance compared to the US for example especially on per capita terms and still way lower than US even in absolute terms (i.e. even before adjusting for population difference). China's per capita income is still Third World level.


Conversely, the Wall Street Journal reports:

Across Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan), private wealth increased by 10.7% to US$23.7 trillion. Conversely, in North America, Europe and Japan, private wealth declined by 0.9%, 0.4% and 2% respectively, particularly affecting the ultra-wealthy, though North America still has the world’s largest share of private wealth at US$38 trillion.

China is fast catching up with America’s millionaires, and is now host to the world’s 3rd highest number of millionaire households (1.43 million). According to BCG, this number is set to grow over the year 2012, and is already up 16% from 2010.


Not there yet, but certainly no "pittance" and this is while North America's relative wealth shrinks and Asia's is exploding. The crossover point is clearly approaching quickly and it may be closer than we think.

Asia appears to be following the European and North American model of the rich becoming über-wealthy as the poor start their long haul out of poverty and into the middle class (which is a also expanding at breakneck speed). The difference is that Asia is undergoing the transformation much, much faster than we did.

How long before the popular chant in the USA changes ever so slightly to "We used to be number one, we used to be number one"?

These may be discomforting statistics but retreating into a state of denial won't change the relentless and rapidly accelerating shifts of global wealth and influence. It's probably wiser to recognize reality, however unwelcome, and plan accordingly.

Edited to add this:

Although the spotlight is usually on China because of its regional dominance it is all of Asia which we should be watching, as these numbers dramatically demonstrate. More Asian billionaires than North American! Twenty years ago these numbers were unthinkable, what will happen in the next twenty years given the accelerating rate of change?

The number of billionaires in Asia rose to 351 last year, from 245 in 2010, according to the Credit Suisse Global Wealth report. Europe had 251 billionaires while North America accounted for 332 last year, the Zurich-based bank said.


The number of millionaires in Asia has overtaken North America for the first time in a sign of wealth shifting across the globe due to the economic downturn, according to a new report.

In the Asia-Pacific region there are now 3.37 million men and women with more than $1m (£635,000) in the bank, compared with 3.35 million in North America, Capgemini and RBC Wealth Management's latest world wealth report revealed.
What if somebody listened to Taipan and missed that 61% increase in SFH values in just 39 months? They would have missed one of the biggest money making opportunities in Vancouver real estate for many years.
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 918
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby Geyser » Sat Aug 04, 2012 1:18 pm

Nothing to see here, move along please.

China's Growing Middle Class

The middle class in China has topped more than 300 million people. And they are a growing factor in the world's economy.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- CNNMoney interviewed Helen Wang, author of The Chinese Dream: The Rise of the World's Largest Middle Class and What It Means to You. A consultant, Wang was raised in China and has lived in the United States for more than 20 years.

Q. Who are the middle class in China?

A. I define middle class as households with an annual income of between $10,000 and $60,000 U.S. dollars. But income is a little misleading because the cost of living in China is very different. A rule of thumb is a household with a third of its income for discretionary spending is considered middle class.

In China, the middle class is all concentrated in big cities, not like in this country, where a lot of the middle class are in the suburbs. Most people have a college education and relatively stable jobs. There are a lot of entrepreneurs and a lot of white collar workers, working for multinationals or state-owned companies.

They are a lot younger ... 20 to 50. A lot of them own homes. Like Westerners, they want everything Americans have.

This new middle class just emerged in the last 15 to 20 years. Fifteen years ago, people didn't have cars yet. But in the last seven, eight, or nine years ... everyone has a car. Some people have more than one car.

Q. How big is the Chinese middle class?

A. It is estimated that it's more than 300 million -- already larger than the entire population of the United States.

About 25% of the population is middle class. It's about 50% of the urban population.

Q. How did the middle class climb the economic ladder?

A. A lot of it is entrepreneurship. With China's economy growing over the last 20 to 30 years, there have been a lot of business opportunities.

Some people still go to college and then get good jobs. A lot of multinationals employ these young college graduates. They pay relatively better than Chinese companies. Many foreign companies are contributing to creating the white-collar middle class.

Chinese state companies also employ a lot of people. Their income has more than tripled over the last 10 or 15 years.

Q. How are they changing China?

A. The Chinese are shopping a lot more. Retail is booming like a wildfire in China. There are a lot more consumers and they are demanding a lot more services.

A lot of Chinese, especially younger consumers, are really into the luxury brands. They associate Western luxury brands with quality of life and sophistication. They want gyms, health care clubs and definitely travel. They want to see the world. The restaurant business is doing very well.

The younger generation -- people under 30 -- they are consuming like crazy. They save zero. They spend all of their salary on a Louis Vuitton purse. A lot of them stay with their parents so they don't have housing expenses. But once they get married, then they start to save.

Q. Are they concerned about the economy and their financial positions?

A. They know China is growing wildly, and they're very busy trying to catch this opportunity. They know China won't grow at this high speed forever and they know the window of opportunity will close. They know government won't take care of them anymore. They have to take care of themselves.

Q. What is the future of the Chinese middle class?

A. The Chinese middle class may grow to 700 to 800 million, which is 50% to 60% of China's entire population. In the past, all the predictions have proven to be too conservative.


And here's some more trivia:
http://nextbigfuture.com/2008/08/china- ... class.html
The meteoric rise in China’s middle class is tied to dramatic increases in its per capita income, which is growing at a nearly unprecedented rate. The first industrial revolution created a 250% increase in per capita income over a 100 year period. The second industrial revolution triggered 350% per capita income growth over 60 years. By comparison, China is on track to create a 700% growth in per capita income in just 20 years.


So, a Chinese middle class bigger than the entire population of the USA, hmmm, that doesn't amount to much, I'm sure we can safely ignore that lot even if their numbers and riches are growing logarithmically. And what if Asia Pacific has more billionaires than North America? So what? How could that ever mean any competition for us?

Okay, let's all go back to sleep. :roll:
What if somebody listened to Taipan and missed that 61% increase in SFH values in just 39 months? They would have missed one of the biggest money making opportunities in Vancouver real estate for many years.
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 918
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby vanpro » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:12 pm

From Geysers quote from WSJ:

"China is fast catching up with America’s millionaires, and is now host to the world’s 3rd highest number of millionaire households (1.43 million)."

My quote:

"Still, the number of Chinese millionaires and billionaires is a mere pittance compared to the US for example especially on per capita terms and still way lower than US even in absolute terms (i.e. even before adjusting for population difference). China's per capita income is still Third World level."

Yet Geyser says the WSJ quote is "converse" to my statement - the WSJ quote from Geyser clearly SUPPORTS my statement. The US has well over 5M millionaires:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/number-u- ... 00310.html

"The number of U.S. millionaire households fell 129,000, or 2.5%, in 2011 to 5,134,000."
vanpro
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 1863
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 12:32 pm

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby vanpro » Sat Aug 04, 2012 3:17 pm

unicas wrote:
Still, the number of Chinese millionaires and billionaires is a mere pittance compared to the US for example especially on per capita terms and still way lower than US even in absolute terms (i.e. even before adjusting for population difference). China's per capita income is still Third World level.


Canada has always had more Olympic medal than the U.S. on per capita basis. Vanpro want to argue with anybody that Canada is the sports super power instead of the "Mythical" U.S. you know want kind of look you will get?

Have you ever read from anywhere that large percentage of American millionaires wanting to immigrate to Canada? You can't provide it. Not now. As result, the data you use to support their impact on our real estate is as good as garbage, just like you keep throwing RPC reports showing Vancouverites need 92% of pretax income to carry a home. Garbage. I actually believe it will happen as America fall further into decay, as more and more cities, townships, states are bankrupted. There will be more riots in the U.S. as the society becomes disordered. We will see Americans lining up at Canadian Embassy. But until then, they have none or close to none impact on Vancouver real estate market no matter how many millionaires they have.

You probably are less 10 years away from getting your old age pension. You should be thankful you grew up at a time where you did not have to compete with the yellow perils to get into UBC, to be able to get a professional job without worrying about your job being outsourced overseas. If you are born 50 years later, you have no chance.


Yes, I stand corrected by ETB's great economic reasoning that income is irrelevant as long as people keep having babies, SFH prices in Vancouver will keep rising (except that they are falling now and in early 1980s and in early 1990s and in 2008, but those price declines/crashes in Vancouver had nothing at ALL to do w/ prices getting out of wack w/ incomes and resulting lack of affordability)......
vanpro
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 1863
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 12:32 pm

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby Geyser » Sat Aug 04, 2012 4:46 pm

Vanpro wrote:
Yet Geyser says the WSJ quote is "converse" to my statement


Read your comment again, the underlined part is what I disagree with.

Still, the number of Chinese millionaires and billionaires is a mere pittance compared to the US for example especially on per capita terms and still way lower than US even in absolute terms (i.e. even before adjusting for population difference). China's per capita income is still Third World level.


Bear in mind the wealth of Chinese Mainlanders is grossly understated as explained below.

Bloomberg.com published this:
China’s Millionaires Leap Past 1 Million On Growth, Savings
By Frederik Balfour - Jun 1, 2011 1:24

China has more than a million millionaires as economic growth, savings and a strengthening currency helped swell their ranks by 262,000 last year, according to a Boston Consulting Group survey.
Millionaire households jumped 31 percent in 2010 from the previous year to 1.11 million, the BCG Global Wealth Survey released yesterday showed.

China’s number of millionaire households ranks it third, behind the 5.22 million in the U.S. and Japan’s 1.53 million, according to BCG. Still, wealth in privately held businesses and property wasn’t accounted for in the survey, thereby missing a major chunk of economic assets in the mainland.

“This grossly underestimates true overall wealth in China,” said Tjun Tang, a partner at BCG in Hong Kong and one of the report’s authors. The survey also excludes works of art, fine wines and yachts, a growing class of assets among China’s well-heeled.



Now, if you roll in the significant number of of other "Asians" who are billionaires you easily trump the number in the USA. My point is that their numbers cannot in any sense be described as "a pittance", they are already a huge force to be contended with and they are closely followed by a huge and rapidly growing middle class which already dwarfs the US middle class.

Feel free to pretend this is not happening but do so at your own peril.
What if somebody listened to Taipan and missed that 61% increase in SFH values in just 39 months? They would have missed one of the biggest money making opportunities in Vancouver real estate for many years.
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 918
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby vanpro » Sat Aug 04, 2012 5:26 pm

Speculation on "privately held assets" that are by definition hard to quantify (both in the US and China) does not provide for hard data, but mere hopeful guessing - did the report account for the many Chinese publicly held and fraudulently and grossly OVER estimated assets such as Sino Forest etc....?

I am not arguing that the Chinese economy AS A WHOLE is not formidable - but you have to put it in perspective and use proper economic measurements - e.g. wealth and income PER CAPITA is what counts when comparing economic levels and performance. On those measurements China has a LONG ways to go. It is still Third World by those standards.
vanpro
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 1863
Joined: Fri Sep 04, 2009 12:32 pm

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby Geyser » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:07 pm

Any nuclear armed country with its own space station, some of the most advanced cities on the planet, with so many millionaires and billionaires, with an exploding middle class which is already more numerous than the entire population of the USA (and which is estimated will soon be 50% of the population), cannot be properly described as third world, even if large numbers of its rural population are relatively poor. The USA and Canada also have citizens living in third world conditions, is just the ratios which are currently different but that is changing rapidly enough to make most people's heads spin.

When a country has the second largest economy on the planet (soon to be the largest), is the world's largest steel producer and consumer and is the world's greatest consumer of energy, we probably need to find a new way of categorizing it. A more logical approach to assessing it might be to say it is composed of two nations, a third world rural nation and a first world urban nation.

Anybody who considers China to be a third world country will probably be comfortable with Canada increasing its foreign aid contributions to them, personally I'm not.

Many people resent China's amazing rise to prominence and many choose to pretend it is something less than it is. My position is that China is almost certainly going to be the most powerful and influential nation on earth in the not very distant future, it seems foolhardy to ignore that probability.

I respectfully suggest that anybody who hasn't been there on numerous occassions over a period of decades will have great difficulty grasping the magnitude of what has been happening there. I have found it startling and a bit unsettling, accordingly I recommend that they have our full attention as they continue to grow.
What if somebody listened to Taipan and missed that 61% increase in SFH values in just 39 months? They would have missed one of the biggest money making opportunities in Vancouver real estate for many years.
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 918
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby semven » Sat Aug 04, 2012 9:56 pm

Think they will put a picture of Sam Walton on their currency?
User avatar
semven
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 2431
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2008 7:25 pm
Location: If you Rent it you are still payin for it...

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby Taipan » Sun Aug 05, 2012 2:56 pm

Germany is to Greece, Italy and Spain, what China is to the USA.

Germany made the goods, sold them to Greece, Italy and Spain, and then accepted pieces of paper.

China has been doing the same, making goods and selling them to the USA, and then accepted pieces of paper.

And that’s the problem with China.

While China grows it doesn’t have a problem. China is wrongly perceived as a capitalist society.

It isn’t. Its overriding motive is to maintain the primacy of "the party" - The communist party. Doing this requires an almost pathological focus on maintaining social stability.

Busy working people don’t cause problems. Unemployed people do.

As a result, people come before profits. For instance look at the massive overcapacity of the Chinese steel industry where its now acknowledged that mills lose several hundred Yuan on every ton of steel.

Over the last 30 years with the growth of china, major reserves of the countries wealth have become tied up in US treasury bonds. US borrows the money from China, pays it to the US people, who buy the goods that china sends over, and the government subsidizes the businesses which are not economic.

Now if your bullish on gold, like I am, china could be your new best friend.

Wkileaks revealed a cable sent from the US embassy in Beijing to the US state department in Washington, which said.

"According to China's National Foreign Exchanges Administration China's gold reserves have recently been increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been located in the U.S. and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken gold’s function as an international reserve currency. They dont want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the US dollar or euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S in maintaining the U.S dollars role as the international reserve currency. China's increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the RMB"

In February 2010 wikileaks also supplied another cable sent from Beijing to the state department.

"China must be clear on discovering what the US goals are behind its tough stances against China. In fact, a fierce competition between the currencies of big countries has just started. A crucial move for the U.S is to shift its crisis to other countries, by coercing China to buy U.S treasury bonds with foreign exchange reserves and doing everything possible to prevent Chinas foreign reserve from buying gold.

The nature of such behaviours is a rogue lawyers behaviour of ripping off both sides: taking advantage of cross strait divergences, blackmailing the Taiwan peoples wealth by selling arms to Taiwan, meanwhile coercing China to buy U.S treasury bonds with foreign exchange reserves and extorting wealth from the mainlands people. If we [China] use all of our foreign exchange reserves to buy US treasury bonds, then when someday the US Federal Reserve suddenly announces that the original 10 Old US dollars are now worth only one new U.S dollar and the new U.S dollar is pegged to gold we will be dumbfounded. Today when the United States is determined to beggar thy neighbour, shifting its crisis to China, the Chinese must be very clear what the key victory is. It is by no means to use new foreign reserves to buy U.S treasury bonds.

In a round about way the issue of currency and gold is a defacto way of China getting paid for its goods. Do you want to hold pieces of paper which may have written on them United states or physical gold? For much of the last 70 years you would have been happy with US paper, but things have been changing and the US keeps printing money. That has never ever ended well.

The Hoarding Continues: China Purchases A Record 100 Tons Of Gold In April From Hong Kong

[i]"Imports from Hong Kong were 135,529 kilograms (135.53 metric tons) between January and March, from 19,729 kilograms in the year-earlier period, according to data from the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government. Shipments in March rose 59 percent from February, yesterday's data showed." We have just gotten the April update, and, lo and behold, the country which is now the biggest buyer of gold, having surpassed India, just set a new record: "Gold imports by mainland China from Hong Kong climbed 65 percent to a record in April, advancing for a third straight month as investors sought a hedge against financial-market turmoil and an economic slowdown. Shipments totaled 103,644.5 kilograms (103.6 metric tons) in the month from 62,913 kilograms in March, according to export data from the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government today. In the first four months, imports were 239,174 kilograms from 27,114 kilograms a year earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations. China doesn’t publish such figures." In other words: in the first four months of 2012 Chinese purchases have increased by an unprecedented 782% over 2011.


IMHO china would love to swap its pieces of paper for Gold bullion. That would underpin a new reserve world currency, and elevate the chinese above the position of the USA
Geezer: "What if somebody listened to Taipan and doesnt buy".

Well, they will thank their lucky stars, that they arent one of the thousands of miserable souls who cant sell their properties in 2013!
User avatar
Taipan
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 3612
Joined: Fri May 30, 2008 11:24 pm

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby Geyser » Mon Aug 06, 2012 2:57 pm

Taipan quoted:
The Hoarding Continues: China Purchases A Record 100 Tons Of Gold In April From Hong Kong

[i]"Imports from Hong Kong were 135,529 kilograms (135.53 metric tons) between January and March, from 19,729 kilograms in the year-earlier period, according to data from the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government. Shipments in March rose 59 percent from February, yesterday's data showed." We have just gotten the April update, and, lo and behold, the country which is now the biggest buyer of gold, having surpassed India, just set a new record: "Gold imports by mainland China from Hong Kong climbed 65 percent to a record in April, advancing for a third straight month as investors sought a hedge against financial-market turmoil and an economic slowdown. Shipments totaled 103,644.5 kilograms (103.6 metric tons) in the month from 62,913 kilograms in March, according to export data from the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government today. In the first four months, imports were 239,174 kilograms from 27,114 kilograms a year earlier, according to Bloomberg calculations. China doesn’t publish such figures." In other words: in the first four months of 2012 Chinese purchases have increased by an unprecedented 782% over 2011.


Please tell me that you do understand that Hong Kong is in China, hence they didn't "import" gold from Hong Kong any more than Canada "imports" oil from Alberta, they just moved it to a different location within the country. Such a relocation may make sense given the "unruly child" status that Hong Kong seems to occupy in the Chinese leader's minds. I'm not sure I'd be comfortable storing my valuables in a rebellious son's bedroom, particularly if I sensed the potential for unrest in the entire household.

Net global impact of China relocating its internal supply = zero, but we can rely on the gold bugs to overlook that minor point in their current frenzy to try and make up for their recent significant losses. Come on potential gold buyers, where are all those greater fools?

BTW, after a brief lull the Chinese are once again gorging on US Treasuries, I guess they've joined the conspiracy to force gold prices down against the US$.
What if somebody listened to Taipan and missed that 61% increase in SFH values in just 39 months? They would have missed one of the biggest money making opportunities in Vancouver real estate for many years.
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 918
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby Taipan » Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:21 pm

Treaty of Nanking 1841 ring a bell? :roll: Please advise how much gold china currently owns and has bought in the last 12 months.
Geezer: "What if somebody listened to Taipan and doesnt buy".

Well, they will thank their lucky stars, that they arent one of the thousands of miserable souls who cant sell their properties in 2013!
User avatar
Taipan
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 3612
Joined: Fri May 30, 2008 11:24 pm

Re: Hurun Wealth Report 2012

Postby Geyser » Tue Aug 07, 2012 12:45 am

Treaty of Nanking 1841 ring a bell? :roll:


No, of course not, I was born British. Does 1997 ring a bell? :roll:

Please advise how much gold china currently owns and has bought in the last 12 months.


I don't know and neither do you, they have been quite secretive about that for the last couple of years. The only reliable number will be the 428 tonnes they imported through the single port of Hong Kong last year but who knows what they have brought in through other ports and who really knows with any certainty how much they really dig out of the ground?

There is no doubt that their citizens are huge consumers of the product both for jewelry and for hoarding but that just makes it more volatile for global investors. When massive domestic consumption or hoarding starts to irritate government planners nasty things can happen. India recently doubled the import duty on gold because huge domestic consumption was messing with their trade balance and damaging the Rupee. The USA once banned private ownership and started confiscating the stuff, not that I'm suggesting the Chinese government would ever do anything that heavy handed to its people. :shock:

Did you see the cautionary report from Bloomberg earlier this year? The gold bugs don't talk about it much so here are a couple of excerpts:

INVESTING | 2/17/2012 @ 9:46AM |3,700 views
China's Gold Imports: Grain Of Salt, Please
Adrian Ash, Contributor

China’s gold imports have overtaken its domestic mine output (the world’s largest, of course). So gold also risks denting the trade surplus, the central plank of Beijing’s economic model. Reconciling the two calls for a bureaucrat’s fudge.

Gold imports aren’t  capped, nor are they taxed more heavily. And they remain, for now, only a fraction of the trade surplus. But Bruce Ikemizu at Standard Bank in Tokyo told us this week that Chinese importers now need to get permission for each shipment from the bureaucrats of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) as well as from the People’s Bank  of China. “So it takes longer to import gold,” notes Bruce.

Although this new rule is already frustrating those banks importing gold, it’s likely only to delay, rather than deter, the flow of bullion. But it’s a hat-tip to the potential drain on China’s foreign currency holdings which gold has become for India – still the world’s No.1 consumer, and importing twice as much as bullion as China in 2011 because it has no domestic mine output.

The timing of SAFE’s move, immediately after New Year – and only two weeks after India doubled its gold and silver import duties – suggests Beijing’s policy wonks are live to the trade-balance risks posed by Chinese households’ soaring demand.


Of course, as I said earlier, I don't think China's bureaucrats would ever interfere with the free market like the American government did, that would be very heavy handed and quite out of character for them. :lol:

I never had you figured as a guy who would trust communist bureaucrats to protect his wealth. Live and learn. :shock:

Sleep well. :)
What if somebody listened to Taipan and missed that 61% increase in SFH values in just 39 months? They would have missed one of the biggest money making opportunities in Vancouver real estate for many years.
Geyser
Real Estate Talker
 
Posts: 918
Joined: Tue Jun 05, 2012 5:26 pm
Location: In a van down by the river

Next

Return to British Columbia Real Estate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot], danny, Google [Bot] and 7 guests