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Real Estate Talks This is a friendly, interactive exchange of information on all Real Estate related subjects. Follow on Twitter: @RETALKS 2021-02-27T11:00:30-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/app.php/feed 2021-02-27T11:00:30-08:00 2021-02-27T11:00:30-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129824&p=345552#p345552 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Despite pandemic, Canadians spending extravagantly on homes]]>
Purchasers are spending money on more expensive homes in Canada’s biggest cities and it’s trickling down the ladder, making housing more prohibitive for the people most affected by the pandemic.

“Existing home sales have shifted towards more expensive housing types in Vancouver, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal and away from generally less expensive apartment condominiums and attached dwelling,” said a new report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. “These markets have also seen a shift in the distribution of sales towards higher price ranges.

“This shift likely reflects the uneven distribution of the economic impacts of the pandemic, with higher-income households able to maintain their income through adapting to work from home. In contrast, those employed in lower-paid industries were less able to adapt to pandemic conditions so that, in combination with a sharp decline in new migrants to Canada, relative demand for less expensive housing types fell.”

To be clear, demand from immigrants and lower wage earners for less expensive housing has greatly diminished, but relatively well-heeled Canadians priced out of the single-family market are climbing down the housing ladder and buying whatever they can afford. According to Robert Mogensen, a mortgage broker, their ranks are swelling.

“If they had their sights set on a single-family home, with the way pricing has gone on more modest ones, they’re being pushed down into townhouses and condominiums,” said Mogensen of The Mortgage Advantage. “I’ve had a number of clients you’d assume would have no trouble, like dentists, doctors and lawyers, who’d be looking specifically for single-family homes, not qualify. Maybe because they were getting started in their professions, but they’d have to start looking at townhomes, which are typically for middle-of-the-road income earners, and now it’s driving the price of townhomes up.”

Mogensen says the fierce competition at the higher end of the housing market—where he’s seeing multiple offers on almost everything, as well as “crazy offers with no conditions”—is trickling as far down as the condominium market.

“Buying activity for higher-end homes has picked up from where it was a year ago, and now it’s working its way right down the scale. The condo market is starting to heat up as well for exactly the same reason the townhouse market is.”

At the same time, the economic impact of the pandemic is disproportionately affecting younger Canadians and lower-income households, who are watching the cost of housing soar to new heights from the sidelines.

“Despite increased government transfers to these households, their exposure to negative employment effects meant they were less likely to purchase a home during the pandemic than other households,” said the CMHC report.

https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine. ... 34520.aspx

Statistics: Posted by news — Sat Feb 27, 2021 11:00 am

2021-02-16T18:33:12-08:00 2021-02-16T18:33:12-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129802&p=345510#p345510 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Huge sale shows Vancouver apartment prices holding steady]]>
Residential Feb. 16, 2021

“Beds and sheds” are the trends for recession-proof, long-term investment, according to a CBRE executive who worked on the recent high-profile sale of 15 apartment buildings in Vancouver.

The mid-rise buildings are a unique grouping in that they are all within the city and they are well-managed and -maintained apartment blocks located in desirable neighbourhoods. Crestpoint Real Estate Investments and InterRent REIT purchased the portfolio in a $292.5-million acquisition.

The deal closed on Jan. 28 and only now has CBRE executive vice-president of the national apartment and investment properties group, Lance Coulson, been able to discuss it.

“I knew how unique this was,” said Coulson. “These buildings for the most part were high-end, the capital that had been put into them and the way they had been operated and maintained, it was top-notch. So whoever was going to end up with them, they were acquiring incredibly quality assets.

“We had interest from private investors, from institutions. It was a great mix. That’s something I thought would happen, when we did our initial marketing campaign, that we were going to get a large spectrum of different buyers interested — which was going to help with positioning of the assets, and also, at end of the day, getting the type of attention we needed to sell it and maximize value on behalf of our vendor.”

Vancouver’s long-standing family-owned development and management company Hollyburn Properties was the seller.

Vancouver prices holding steady

Coulson said the deal, one of only a few significant portfolio acquisitions he’s seen during the past decade, illustrates the demand from private and institutional investors, and the fact that prices are holding.

“I haven’t seen prices come down and I just proved it here,” said Coulson. “The appetite out there is really significant right now, and there is a lot of money out there, private and institutional. Interest rates are at historic lows. You can get 10-year CMHC financing right now for about 1.7 per cent — amazing.

“Given what’s happened in retail and office sectors, people are looking at multifamily and industrial. There’s a phrase right now that’s been coined: beds and sheds. From an investors’ perspective, those are the asset classes they are looking at . . . and we are going to get through COVID and you have to look long-term.”

He said the institutional investor who comes to the Vancouver region needs scale for operations and this portfolio gave InterRent, in particular, an opportunity to become established and gain a Vancouver platform. InterRent is new to the Vancouver market and has plans to manage the properties, of which nine are concrete.

Crestpoint, a private investment company, already has industrial, office and retail assets in the region.

“Overall, to accumulate anything like this, especially the concrete buildings, it could take you 40 years,” said Coulson. “That was the unique thing and why the end buyer was able to come here.

“They’ve always had an eye on Vancouver and they always wanted to be established here. An institutional investor can’t come here and buy one or two 30-unit buildings. It doesn’t make sense.”

The deal was also noteworthy because the apartments, 614 units in all, are in central and desirable Vancouver city neighbourhoods including Point Grey, the West End, South Granville and Marpole.

“I’ve been doing this 23 years now and the market has never seen that. That created a real buzz,” said Coulson. “In the last 10 years, including this one, there have been about six portfolio sales of any significant size in overall value. This is my fourth one and most of those have been wood frame, and they have been spread throughout Metro Vancouver.”

Mark Goodman, principal of Goodman Commercial, said it’s the dollar value that makes these portfolio purchases remarkable, not that the vendors are classified as institutional. Goodman tallied 12 months of comprehensive sales for 2020 and found that only nine per cent of transactions involved public companies, REITS, pension funds and other types of institutional investors, representing seven out of 78 transactions.

He did not include Hollyburn because it’s a family-run business.

Those institutional acquisitions, however, represented more than one-third of the dollar value, $394.940 million. That, he said, is significant.

“But the reason it skews upwards so much, from nine per cent of transactions to 35 per cent of volume, is because they are buying, in some cases, over $100-million deals.

“And they are often newer complexes being built,” said Goodman.

Apartment prices top $403K per unit

Prices are more nuanced according to submarkets, too, and only recently have they come up overall. Metro Vancouver as a whole has increased by eight per cent, he said.

However, a couple of major deals can also skew the numbers.

“Over the last few years, prices have come down. But if you look at the latest statistics — for example, if you look at average prices per unit, values have actually gone up this year across the board to $403,000 a unit,” said Goodman.

“I would say over the last 12 months prices have held steady.”

As for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation report that recently showed a new vacancy rate of 2.6 per cent for the entire Vancouver region, neither Goodman nor Coulson believe it will have any impact on the market.

The vacancy rate is still low and the increase is likely an outlier in unprecedented times.

A CBRE survey found that on average 97 per cent of tenants in Canada paid their rent last year.

“People are looking at multifamily right now and seeing it was resilient, a defensive asset with good consistent cash flow,” said Coulson.

https://renx.ca/huge-sale-shows-vancouv ... ng-steady/

Statistics: Posted by news — Tue Feb 16, 2021 6:33 pm

2021-02-08T17:52:47-08:00 2021-02-08T17:52:47-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129790&p=345481#p345481 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • The Pandemic Was Bullish For Canadian Real Estate, Confirms National Stats Agency]]> Canada’s national statistics agency reported real estate prices made the biggest gain in years — during a pandemic. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows real estate prices increased in Q4 2020. The rise was the biggest since 2017, and is being attributed to low interest rates. The data is consistent with local real estate boards, showing detached homes represent almost all of the gains. Meanwhile, condo apartments are stalling compared to a year before.

Canadian Real Estate Prices Grew The Fastest Since 2018
Canadian real estate prices made one of the biggest jumps in history. Prices in the 6-City index increased 2.5% in Q4 2020, the fastest acceleration since Q2 2017. Virtually all gains are from single-family homes, which increased 3.5% in the quarter. Condo apartments increased just 0.16% over the same period. The trend of single-family homes outperforming in price growth is consistent.

Toronto Detached Prices Grow, While Condos Fall
Toronto did something it doesn’t do often – underperformed real estate price growth. Prices for the city’s composite increased 2.02% in Q4 2020, neither a high or a low even this year. Detached prices increased 3.54% in the quarter, the biggest quarterly move since Q2 2017. Condo apartments fell 0.69% over the same period, the biggest drop in the data set. More detailed statistics from local boards show gains were largely led by detached suburban units.

Vancouver Detached Real Estate Prices Grow, While Condos Fall
Vancouver’s segments have also diverged, but not nearly as much as Toronto. The composite for home prices in the region increased 2.44% in Q4 2020 – a very large move, but still underperforming the index. Single-family homes increased 3.57% in the quarter, the biggest increase since 2017. Condo apartments dragged the index with a relatively flat move of 0.09% lower over the same period. The index was driven entirely by single-family price gains.

Montreal Is Seeing Both Single-Family Homes And Condos Outperform
Montreal is seeing huge growth, but it’s slower than the month before. The composite for the region increased 3.98% in Q4 – which is huge, but smaller than the previous quarter. Single-family homes increased at an even faster pace of 4.58% higher, over the same quarter. Condo apartments increased a little slower at 3.13% higher, over the same period. Both home types saw huge gains, but detached prices are moving faster. Still on trend, but a slightly more robust market.

These stats generally show a boom for single-family homes, and a slow down for condos. The agency notes this trend is driven by low interest rates, stimulating demand for detached homes. It’s also pulled forward even more demand, by increasing the credit available to households. As demand trends normalize, they expect the sudden shift in preference will have a lower impact. That appears to be a popular take – going back to normal is now the risk.

Canadian Urban Real Estate Price Index Change
The quarterly percent change for Canadian urban real estate prices in Q4 2020.

Statistics: Posted by news — Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:52 pm

2021-02-02T20:20:35-08:00 2021-02-02T20:20:35-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129789&p=345478#p345478 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • World Outlook Financial Conference FEB 5-6]]>
If You Think 2020 Was Unpredictable,

Wait Till You See 2021...

Ozzie Jurock joins Michael Campbell on Saturday Feb 6th to share his thoughts on the "Upside Down Real Estate World". To learn more about the 2021 World Outlook Financial Conference or to buy a pass go to: https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/world-outloo ... ence-2021/
https://mikesmoneytalks.ca/world-outloo ... ence-2021/

Statistics: Posted by news — Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:20 pm

2021-02-02T16:36:05-08:00 2021-02-02T16:36:05-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129788&p=345477#p345477 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • BIGGEST JANUARY EVER! THE NUMBERS ARE ROCKING!]]> VANCOUVER
Total JAN 2021 JAN 2020 % JAN 2019 JAN 2018
•Price1,097,800926,600 +07%996,000 1,038,000
•Sales752 442 +70% 342 484
•Price1,823,000 1,592,000 +15%!1,616,0001,726,300
•Listings2,9614,185 -29% 5,350 4,646
•Sales1,194814 +49% 559 1,016
•Price690,500 665,200 +04% 667,700 751,600
•Listings4,2483,610+18% 4,349 1,959

Statistics: Posted by ozzie — Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:36 pm

2021-02-02T16:32:41-08:00 2021-02-02T16:32:41-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129786&p=345476#p345476 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Re: Canadian Markets Are Seeing A Real Estate Boom With Population Declines]]> Statistics: Posted by ozzie — Tue Feb 02, 2021 4:32 pm

2021-01-21T20:14:29-08:00 2021-01-21T20:14:29-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129786&p=345475#p345475 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Re: Canadian Markets Are Seeing A Real Estate Boom With Population Declines]]>
Plus over the next 3 years Canada will take in 1.2M new immigrants who will stay in their cousin's basement only so long, ie create massive rental AND real estate demand !

Yours Sincerely,
Thomas Beyer, President
Prestigious Properties Group

E: tbeyer at prestprop dot com
W: www.prestprop.com

Statistics: Posted by thomasbeyer2000 — Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:14 pm

2021-01-17T09:36:43-08:00 2021-01-17T09:36:43-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129787&p=345474#p345474 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • What Recession? Canadian Real Estate Sales Grow At Fastest Rate Since 2010]]>
Canadian Real Estate Sales Rise Over 47%
Canadian real estate prices are much higher than last month, even adjusting for a big year. There were 59,543 seasonally adjusted sales in December, up 7.2% from the month before. Unadjusted there were 39,876 sales in the month, up 47.2% from the same month last year. Big gains all around due to the seasonal shift that occurred this year. The seasonally adjusted gain is due to a smaller than typical decline in home sales for the month. December’s unadjusted sales were still lower than November.

The rate of growth is accelerating, but it’s hard to yield very many insights due to the demand shift. The 12-month unadjusted growth rate of 47.2% in December is the highest since the Great Recession. Demand is higher than usual, but it’s hard to tell how much of this is due to the first two months of the pandemic. Artificial restrictions forced an unusual market last year, delaying some buyers. Those delayed, bought a little later, pushing seasonal peaks out further. Higher growth was expected, but should taper (at least a little) in the second half of 2021.

Due to the demand shift and the depressed numbers coming up, it would be odd to not see a higher rate of growth. This is especially true in April and May, which came in at historic lows due to lockdowns. This is what analysts call a low-base effect, which is when an unusually low value shows very large growth. This very large growth isn’t particularly helpful in a forecast though, since it’s relatively unstable. About mid-2021, we’ll see the base effect make regular sale volumes appear low. This also won’t be particularly helpful in forecasting either.

The massive gains aren’t entirely due to a shift and pent-up demand. There’s a significant shift in buying trends, with low interest rates and work-from-home changing buying behavior. Lowering interest rates typically pull forward future demand, by making debt cheaper. The work-from-home trend is also allowing people to work further from City centers, and escape high priced rentals. This has been driving more buying outside of primary cities, and into neighboring regions.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Change
The annual percent change of unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.
Screen Shot 2021-01-17 at 9.36.12 AM.png

Statistics: Posted by news — Sun Jan 17, 2021 9:36 am

2020-12-19T19:30:10-08:00 2020-12-19T19:30:10-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129786&p=345473#p345473 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Canadian Markets Are Seeing A Real Estate Boom With Population Declines]]> Canadian real estate prices didn’t rise on fundamentals, so why would a change make a difference? Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows Canadian population growth was flat in Q3 2020. Two provinces, home to the country’s busiest markets, weren’t lucky enough to be flat though. Both B.C. and Ontario saw declines from the previous quarter.

Canadian Population Growth Is Flat From The Previous Quarter
Canada’s high population growth ground to a halt. The population was estimated at 38,008,005 in Q3 2020, up just 0.01% from the previous quarter. That works out to an increase of just 2,767 more people across the country. Compared to the same quarter last year, the population is 0.54% higher. This is the lowest rate of annual growth since at least the 1950s, but likely goes back much further.

Ontario’s Population Was In Decline Last Quarter
Ontario’s real estate markets are booming, but it has nothing to do with population growth. The province’s population was estimated to be 14,733,119 in Q3 2020, down 0.01% from the previous quarter. That works out to a net-loss of about 895 people from the previous quarter. Compared to the same quarter last year, the population is just 0.65% higher. This level of annual growth is rarely seen in the province, but it did happen recently – in Q2 2015. Other than that though, it’s been a while!

BC’s Population Is Declining Even Faster Than Ontario
British Columbia is seeing one of the bigger quarterly declines across the country. The province’s population fell to 5,145,851 in Q3 2020, down 0.04% from the previous quarter. This works out to a net loss of 1,861 people, almost double the one Ontario saw. Compared to last year, the population is about 0.39% higher. This is the lowest annual growth the province has seen since at least 1950.

Canada’s population growth was flat, and this is attributed to immigration. While some believe this should be resolved soon, some experts don’t see it that way. RBC economists have forecasted the decline in immigration is likely to persist until at least 2022. Closed borders and a soft employment market are likely to make it more difficult to attract talent near term.

Canadian Population Growth
The annual percent change of Canada’s population.
Screen Shot 2020-12-19 at 7.29.26 PM.png

Statistics: Posted by news — Sat Dec 19, 2020 7:30 pm

2020-11-01T15:18:04-08:00 2020-11-01T15:18:04-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129785&p=345472#p345472 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Ozzie talks at BCIT and GCBA]]> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcTf3qLUPRc
bcit 1 .png

Statistics: Posted by ozzie — Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:18 pm