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Real Estate Talks This is a friendly, interactive exchange of information on all Real Estate related subjects. Follow on Twitter: @RETALKS 2020-09-16T12:10:44-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/app.php/feed 2020-09-16T12:10:44-08:00 2020-09-16T12:10:44-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129781&p=345468#p345468 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Greater Vancouver Detached Real Estate Sales Have Best August Since 2015]]> Greater Vancouver detached real estate sales are still enjoying the delayed spring rush this summer. Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) data shows detached sales had the biggest August since 2015. Prices are also seeing growth accelerate as well, but higher inventory levels mean it’s nowhere near as tight as half a decade ago.

Greater Vancouver Detached Real Estate Prices Rise Over 6%
The price of a detached home in Greater Vancouver has gotten a boost during the pandemic. REBGV’s detached benchmark reached $1,491,300 in August, up 6.6% from the same month last year. In the City, prices in Vancouver East hit $1,502,700, up 10.1% from last year. In Vancouver West, the benchmark reached $3,084,600, up 5.6% from last year. The increase marks the fastest price growth in years for detached homes.

Greater Vancouver detached prices are rising rapidly, but are still down from just a few years ago. All three of the above regions have seen the rate of growth accelerate, and REBGV is growing at the fastest pace since 2018. However, REBGV data shows prices are still down 6.5% from just three years ago. In the City, Vancouver East is down 3.1% and Vancouver West is down 15.7% from three years ago.

Detached Sales Had The Biggest August Since 2015
Greater Vancouver detached sales had the best August in years. REBGV reported 1,095 detached sales in August, down 2.3% from the month before. The increase works out to 55.1% higher than the same month last year. That makes this past August the busiest for detached sales since 2015.

Greater Vancouver Detached August Sales
The number of detached homes sold in the month of August, across Greater Vancouver.

New Inventory Is Hitting The Market Very Quickly As Well
Like most markets and segments, Greater Vancouver is seeing a significant increase in sellers hitting the market. REBGV reported 1,837 new listings in August, down 3.57% from the month before. This works out to an increase of 41.85% from the same month last year. Despite the flood of new listings, it was lower than the rise in sales, pushing total inventory levels lower.

Greater Vancouver Detached Sales Vs. New Listings
The total number of detached sales, compared to the number of new detached listings per month.

Active listings, or total inventory, for detached homes is significantly lower this year. REBGV reported 4,614 active listings for detached homes in August, up 3.45% from a month before. This number is still 21.84% lower than the same month last year though. While that makes the market tighter, it’s nowhere as tight as it was back in 2015 when sales were last this high.

Greater Vancouver detached real estate prices have been rising at the fastest pace in years. They aren’t quite back to where they were a few years ago, but price growth is undeniably accelerating. New listings are also rising quickly though, making it a very different market. Sales are the highest since 2015, but the level of inventory is nowhere as low as it was back then.

Greater Vancouver Detached Benchmark Price
The price of a typical detached home across the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board, in Canadian dollars.
Screen Shot 2020-09-16 at 1.09.39 PM.png

Statistics: Posted by news — Wed Sep 16, 2020 12:10 pm

2020-09-09T11:53:43-08:00 2020-09-09T11:53:43-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129780&p=345467#p345467 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Landrush conference September 19th!]]> Rick and his spouse Cheri began investing in real estate in 1997 and built up a substantial portfolio of properties in Western Canada. Rick and Cheri are four-time Deal of the Year award winners with Ozzie's REAG group, three times for Best Joint Venture Partnership and once for Best Land Deal.
They built first 2o, then 30 and then 63 units and now have
have developments planned in both Langford and Esquimalt

RICK, KNOWS WHAT HE IS TALKING ABOUT!.Last year he told the Vancouver audience why Victoria was the place to be.This year he is proven right. Dramatically so!


Go to http://LANDRUSHCANADA.COM and look up all speakers!

(Oh, he also wrote 2 books and part of two more along the way)

Statistics: Posted by ozzie — Wed Sep 09, 2020 11:53 am

2020-09-01T15:31:30-08:00 2020-09-01T15:31:30-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129779&p=345466#p345466 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • German speaking influencers]]> She published ...
“75 German-Speaking Influential People in Western Canada”

Read the personal stories and accomplishments of Austrians, Germans & Swiss in Western Canada.

Buy it here....
75 German-Speaking Influential Peopl…
https://www.magcloud.com/browse/issue/1 ... __r=317124

Ok, ok I'm in it...

Statistics: Posted by ozzie — Tue Sep 01, 2020 3:31 pm

2020-08-27T12:03:56-08:00 2020-08-27T12:03:56-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129778&p=345465#p345465 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • BCREA: "Surprisingly strong" market recovery to last well into 2021]]>
26 Aug 2020

Despite a flagging economy, the British Columbia housing market is enjoying a robust pace of recovery that will propel it to new heights in the months ahead, according to the province’s foremost real estate organization.

In the third-quarter edition of its housing forecast, the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) said that sales activity has now exceeded pre-COVID-19 levels, “combined with a decline in the supply of re-sale listings driven by the pandemic.”

“The outlook for the BC housing market is much brighter following a surprisingly strong recovery,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA chief economist. “We expect home sales will sustain this momentum into 2021.”

Among the major drivers of the trend would be the prevailing environment of record-low rates, BCREA said.

Residential sales through the province’s MLS will increase by 6.5% this year, likely reaching 82,380 transactions. Activity is projected to go up by another 17.6% to 96,860 sales in 2021.

The association’s forecast also pegged average sales prices to grow by 7.7% this year, and then by another 3.7% in 2021.

Price growth might be further aggravated by supply-side issues, as Statistics Canada data suggested that housing inventory in Canada’s largest markets will need considerable time to recover from the COVID-19 slowdown.

According to StatsCan, investment in residential construction fell by 21.4% annually in May to reach $7.83 billion. Proportionally, Vancouver had the greatest year-over-year plunge in residential construction investment, declining by 44% to $852 million in May.

A July analysis by real estate portal Better Dwelling said that compared to the rest of Canada, investment in Vancouver is recovering at a much slower rate.

https://www.canadianrealestatemagazine. ... 32707.aspx

Statistics: Posted by news — Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:03 pm

2020-08-17T19:23:45-08:00 2020-08-17T19:23:45-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129777&p=345464#p345464 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Canadian Real Estate Sales Hit The Highest Level Ever, Here’s Why It’s Not Surprising]]> Canadian real estate sales hit a new high, along with the highest unemployment in history. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data shows the number of home sales set a record in July. Not just for the month either – it was the biggest month ever. Here’s why the surge was largely expected, and isn’t the clear sign of a return to a booming market. At least yet.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Hit A New Record High
Canadian real estate sales hit a new record monthly high, across the country. There were 63,533 sales reported in July, up 30.5% from the same month last year. On a seasonally adjusted basis, CREA estimates 53,085 sales for the month, up 26.0% from the month before. This isn’t just a high for sale volumes, it’s massive growth not seen in a decade.

Last month showed growth accelerated to the highest level in a decade, along with record sale volumes. The 30.5% increase in July is the highest rate of growth since the Great Recession. The number of sales for the month wasn’t just the highest for July either. It was the biggest single month of sales in the history of Canadian real estate. This likely has a few people scratching their heads, amidst the economic environment. However, it actually makes sense if you zoom out from the monthly look.

Record High Canadian Home Sales Balances A Record Low
The surge in demand appears to be delayed demand concentrated into a smaller window than usual. Looking at the 12-month rolling average, July comes in at 39,483 sales. Over the previous ten years, the median for the 12-month rolling average is 39,212, a difference of less than 1%. What does that mean? The record low in March and April, was balanced by the surge of traffic in June and July. Demand wasn’t lost, it was delayed, and is currently catching up.

The takeaway? Sale volumes are very high, and it may be surprising as a single data point. However, when you account for artificially suppressed demand and stimulus, it’s expected. If you were ready to buy in March, and the pandemic slowed your buying, you were still ready to buy. You just couldn’t. The BoC’s suppression of mortgage rates also pulls forward demand, helping to bolster numbers. The bigger mystery is how many new stimulus measures the government will attempt, before running into the future demand they borrowed.

https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-rea ... urprising/

Canadian Real Estate Sales
The unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.
Screen Shot 2020-08-17 at 8.23.16 PM.png

Statistics: Posted by news — Mon Aug 17, 2020 7:23 pm

2020-08-12T18:16:58-08:00 2020-08-12T18:16:58-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129776&p=345463#p345463 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • St. Paul’s Hospital site sold to Concord for approximately $1 billion]]>
Jeremy Hainsworth Glacier Media
August 12, 2020

The Burrard Street site of Vancouver’s 124-year-old St. Paul’s Hospital has been sold to development giant Concord Pacific Group for about $1 billion as work continues on a $1.9-billion False Creek Flats replacement facility.

“This is a very important property in Vancouver and we recognize that,” Concord Pacific senior vice president of development Peter Webb said of the land sold by St. Paul’s operator Providence Health Care (PHC).

The development will be mixed-use commercial and residential. What community amenities will be included remains to be seen.

The timing of any development work is contingent on the move to the new site but demolition could begin in several years. Webb said the company recognizes some of the site or facades have heritage values and could be retained.

Webb stressed building and then moving a hospital is a complex undertaking for PHC.

“It really depends on their schedule, not ours,” he said.

It also remains to be seen how high new structures at the site could go due to height restrictions determined by so-called city view cones, vice president David Ju said

There are no plans yet to go through those view cone heights.

How development moves forward will be in conjunction with government, the community and first nations groups, Webb said.

The prime, 6.6-acre site had a 2019 assessment of $702.37 million, down from 2018 $784 million in 2018, according to BC Assessment records. The decrease was due to a decline in the assessed land value. The buildings’ value remained steady at $100,225,000.

Concord Pacific has been involved in acquiring the land since 2019 with approval earlier this year. The deal closed at the end of July.

“We’re extremely pleased with this sale,” PHC president Fiona Dalton said. “It is a unique achievement in Canada that enables us to invest in BC’s health care system while minimizing the cost to taxpayers, and continues to build on our 126-year legacy of compassionate and innovative care, research and teaching.”

Concord Pacific is one the Lower Mainland’s biggest development companies. It redeveloped Vancouver’s old Expo 86 lands, changing the face of False Creek, and more recently Burnaby’s Brentwood Town Centre and Metrotown. Projects are also underway in Richmond and Surrey as well as in Calgary, Toronto and other cities.

The proceeds of the sale are earmarked as part of funding for the new hospital.

The state-of-the-art replacement project for the crumbling hospital, built in 1896, it should be open by 2026, Premier John Horgan said in February 2019.

Webb said if Concord Pacific achieves higher densities than expected for the development, it would increase revenue to PHC for the new hospital under terms of the sale agreement.

https://www.westerninvestor.com/news/br ... 1.24185335

Statistics: Posted by news — Wed Aug 12, 2020 6:16 pm

2020-08-11T16:25:12-08:00 2020-08-11T16:25:12-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129775&p=345462#p345462 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Canadian Immigration Slows Further, As New Permanent Residents Drop Over 44%]]>
One of the driving forces behind Canadian real estate prices is on hold – immigration. Government of Canada (GoC) data shows the number of newly admitted permanent residents to Canada is still making sharp declines in June. The decline was mostly consistent around the country, except in BC and Quebec. The former is seeing a smaller than average decline, and the latter a larger than average.

Permanent Residents To Canada Down Over 44%
The number of new permanent residents arriving in Canada is on the decline. There were just 19,175 people admitted in June, down 44.2% from the same month last year. Year-to-date (YTD), this is now just 103,420 admitted people, down 35.5% from last year. The annual decline is softened by large growth in the first two months of this year. Even with that increase, we’re still seeing a lag in growth.

New Permanent Residents To Ontario Drops Over 41%
Ontario is where almost half of the total permanent residents admitted moved. The province represents 9,145 permanent residents admitted in June, down 41.8% from last year. Year-to-date (YTD) there were 48,455 people admitted, down 35.1% compared to last year. For the province, this would be the lowest rate of admittance in at least half a decade, but likely much longer. A larger monthly decline than YTD implies declines are getting larger.

New Permanent Residents To BC Drops Over 20%
British Columbia (B.C.) is the second largest province for permanent resident arrivals. The province saw 3,990 permanent residents admitted in June, down 20.7% from the same month last year. Year-to-date there were 17,205 people admitted, down 23.64% from the same period last year. B.C. is actually the province seeing the smallest declines of any province in Canada. The smaller monthly decline than YTD implies the declines are improving.

New Permanent Residents To Quebec Drops Over 64%
Quebec has been seeing a steady slide in the number of permanent residents admitted for a few years now. The province only saw 1,365 permanent residents admitted in June, down 64.7% from last year. Year-to-date (YTD) there were 10,950 people, down 39.9% compared to the same period last year. This one isn’t entirely due to the pandemic though, since permanent residents arriving in Quebec peaked in 2017 for the month of June.

The decline in permanent residents is almost entirely due to the pandemic. We’re likely to see these numbers rise as global restrictions ease into next year. In the meantime, hundreds of thousands of people expected to create housing demand aren’t coming, or won’t be coming for a while.

https://betterdwelling.com/canadian-imm ... p-over-44/

Canadian Permanent Resident Change – June
The percent change in permanent residents admitted to Canada for the month of June, compared to last year. Source: Government of Canada, Better Dwelling.
Screen Shot 2020-08-11 at 5.24.57 PM.png

Statistics: Posted by news — Tue Aug 11, 2020 4:25 pm

2020-08-06T16:29:07-08:00 2020-08-06T16:29:07-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129774&p=345461#p345461 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Foreign Buyers are Pumping the Brakes on Home Purchases]]>
Foreign buyers cut back their investment in U.S. residential properties over the 12 months that ended in March. It was the second year-over-year decline.

The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) annual survey among its members about their transactions with international clients found foreign buyers purchased $74 billion in existing U.S. homes from April 2019 through March 2020, a 5 percent decline from the same period a year earlier. The number of properties purchased dropped 16 percent to 154,000.

Foreign buyers who were U.S. residents, either as recent immigrants or holding the appropriate visas, purchased $41 billion in residential real estate, down 8 percent from the prior period. Foreign buyers living abroad spent $33 billion, a 1 percent decrease. Those two types of international buyers were responsible for 4 percent of the nation's total existing home sales of $1.7 trillion during that period.

"Foreign buyers and recent immigrants have become less of a force in the U.S. housing market over the last couple of years," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "A lack of housing inventory - the primary factor hindering domestic buyers - is also holding back some foreign buyers. Additionally, less cross-border travel, falling international trade and fewer foreign students attending American universities are impacting foreign homebuyers."

Persons from China and Canada were the most prolific buyers of U.S. homes, spending $11.5 billion and $9.5 billion, respectively. Those countries have produced the most buyers every year since 2013 although Chinese investment was down more than $2 billion from the previous year. Mexico at $5.8 billion, India at $5.4 billion, and Colombia at $1.3 billion rounded out the top five. Colombia replaced the United Kingdom as the fifth largest country of origin by dollar volume of foreign buyers.

International buyers spent a median of $314,600 on existing homes,15 percent more than the median price of $274,600 for all such U.S. sales. NAR says the difference is due to the location and type of properties purchased. The median purchase by Chinese buyers, $449,500, reflects that more than half the properties were in either California or New York.

"In the upcoming year, better opportunities may become available for foreign buyers in large U.S. cities like New York and San Francisco," said Yun. "New patterns of domestic migration are trending away from expensive cities to more affordable suburbs and small communities because of the pandemic and greater work-from-home possibilities."

Foreign buyers preferred the suburbs to cities; 48 percent purchased in the former location versus 29 percent in an urban area, a trend has persisted for five years. Seven percent bought in a resort area, down from 15 percent in 2009, and reflecting fewer buyers from the United Kingdom and Canada who made many of those purchases.

The Sunbelt remains the preferred destination. Florida led the list for the 12th straight year with 22 percent of international purchases. California ranked second at 15 percent. Texas at 9 percent, New York at 5 percent, and New Jersey at 4 percent completed the top five U.S. destinations.

Thirty-nine percent of purchases were all-cash, with a higher percentage of those transactions, 58 percent, than resident buyers at 27 percent. The highest share of all-cash purchases, 66 percent, were made by Canadian buyers while 40 percent of Chinese buyers also paid cash. Asian Indian buyers were the least likely to pay all-cash at just 8 percent, and the most likely to obtain a mortgage at 87 percent.

Half of foreign buyers purchased the property for primary residence use. Three in four - 74 percent - purchased detached single-family homes and townhouses.

Katie Johnson, NAR's general counsel and chief member experience officer said the association collaborates with local Realtor groups to educate foreign buyers on the opportunities in U.S. real estate and maximize the global business potential in local markets. "NAR and the Realtor brand... has grown to a network of 104 real estate associations across 85 countries, ensuring stable, accessible markets that allow our members to make direct connections with global real estate professionals and sources of foreign investment."

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/080620 ... _sales.asp

Statistics: Posted by news — Thu Aug 06, 2020 4:29 pm

2020-08-05T11:03:16-08:00 2020-08-05T11:03:16-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129773&p=345460#p345460 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Clues To The Post-Pandemic Real Estate Market]]>
Aug 5, 2020

Remember when you made your housing decisions based on proximity to work or a social center? When you wanted to be in an urban environment for the vibrancy of the community and were willing to sacrifice space in order to achieve that? Well, the Covid-19 pandemic has become the great equalizer. With work from home being a more commonplace commerce solution and restaurants closing because of diminished capacity due to social distancing rules, space has become a greater commodity than ever before. As a result, the sphere of where consumers want to live has increased dramatically and offers a glimpse into potential futures for both the commercial and residential real estate markets.

Clues From China

As we start to study clues as to what the housing environment will look like after the coronavirus, I think we need to look back to mainland China — where it all began — because they are about three months further ahead in the cycle. Recently, I chaired an AREAA Global Corporate Advisory Board meeting where one of the board members, Gene Shi, president of Ke.com — one of the largest real estate portals in China, with 200,000 agents and 21,000 brokerages — shared his views and explained that real estate market in China has grown due to pent-up demand.

This is an important indicator of the behavioral buying patterns of the consumer. Shi explained to the meeting attendees that while tier-one cities showed positive recovery in the real estate sector, tier-two and tier-three cities recovered at a slower pace. The momentum of tier-one cities will lead the recovery for the country overall.

While you may not be investing in Chinese real estate, this should be taken as a global leading indicator of how other markets around the globe may fare.

Europe And SARS

As much as Asia gives us great hope, moving west to Europe allows us to see how the pandemic is affecting real estate in those countries. Spain, which suffered a near collapse of its economy in 2008, rebuilt its economy with tax-advantaged and residency programs. The real estate in Spain attracted many other foreign investors, not only from Europe, but from other countries where economic and political challenges became a motivator for relocation. Case in point is the increased immigration to Madrid from Venezuela that began with heavy investment in residential neighborhoods in 2008. The country is now one of the hardest hit with Covid-19 cases during this pandemic. It saw just a 6% increase last quarter of new-build sales according to Reuters.

SARS, the prior coronavirus outbreak, offers many clues as to how the behavioral patterns of consumers will begin to manifest. Many people felt that their living environments were too small when the confines of those four walls had to serve as a home, office and school — there simply wasn't enough space to support all of these uses. As a result, consumers considered and acted on a desire for more space, sometimes leaving the confines of the city. We are seeing this phenomenon take place again, based on a recent New York Times article showing the New York City market down 54% compared to the same period last year, the largest decline in 30 years. According to the same article, there is an uptick in search traffic for apartments that come with outdoor living spaces and home offices. Even those who do opt to stay within the city are looking for more space.

Commercial Real Estate

The interesting dynamic will be how the commercial real estate side of the equation affects residential businesses. The last several months have shown that the majority of employees could indeed work from home. Those who are returning to the office will have social distancing rules to follow, not to mention the psychological dilemma of wanting to return to a location that could possibly be a breeding ground for the virus. Before Covid-19, if you wanted a short commute time to the office, that would weigh heavily on where you would want to live. However, if that major factor were taken away and remote work were more of the norm, your habitation choices would be vaster, and space may take precedence over commute time.

Retail is another component that will ultimately impact the residential real estate world after Covid-19. Those wanting to live near a vibrant metropolis should bear in mind that many retail shops may not recover from the virus. A recent USA Today article stated that Amazon has risen 26% in revenue since the beginning of the pandemic. As a society, we are being conditioned more now than ever to have delivery within a few days, and sometimes hours. Restaurants typically operate on a very small margin, with three to four weeks of cash reserves, and often expect to hit profit when they exceed 80% occupancy; with many social distancing rules recommending 50% occupancy, that math simply does not add up to pre-Covid-19 profitability.

With the more typical reasons for choosing a place to call home challenged, a desire for space may move to the top of the list affecting decision making and potentially showing preference for migration to the suburbs.

Based on the current clues, my prediction is major cities globally will have price adjustments. Savvy investors will see it as an opportunity to purchase and hold properties, much like they did during the financial crisis. There may be a resurgence of the societal need to be in a city once a vaccine is found, but until that time, our new norm is “six feet apart” and “a mask must be worn at all times.” One thing is for sure: The adage of "hindsight is 2020" may have been speaking about the calendar year we are all living.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesreal ... e988e11616

Statistics: Posted by news — Wed Aug 05, 2020 11:03 am

2020-08-01T09:06:01-08:00 2020-08-01T09:06:01-08:00 http://realestatetalks.com/viewtopic.php?t=129772&p=345459#p345459 <![CDATA[Real Estate Talks • Greater Vancouver Condo Pre-Sales Cut In Half, New Inventory Delayed]]>
The pandemic drove Greater Vancouver new home sales off a cliff, but things have improved… a little. MLA Canada, a Vancouver-based real estate firm specializing in condo pre-sales, observed an increase in absorption for June. Despite unusual market conditions and a bump from lows, absorption is the same rate as last year. Although the current rate is likely being managed through inventory, and project delays.

Greater Vancouver Condo Pre-Sales Down 50%, But Off Pandemic Lows
Greater Vancouver condo pre-sales bounced from record lows, but still came short. There were just 36 units sold in June, up 51% from the month before. The number is a massive 50% lower than the same month last year. A bit of a surprise considering last year was one of the slowest Junes on record. This persistent slowdown is turning into a throttle for new project launches.

Over 57% Of Pre-Sale Homes Expected Are Delayed
The extended slowdown in sales is leading to a lot less inventory than expected. Greater Vancouver saw 259 new pre-sales hit the market in June, up 8% from the month before. This works out to a drop of 50%, compared to the same month last year. It’s inline with the decline in sales, but it’s also 57% lower than the anticipated units for the month. That’s about 338 units delayed, that may pop up later, or be cancelled – depending on future absorption.

Units are being absorbed at an incredibly low rate, but similar to last year. The sales to new listings ratio (SNLR) reached 14% in June, the same ratio as last year. Analysts generally believe prices will rise when the SNLR is above 60%, fall below 40%, and are priced correctly between those two.

Greater Vancouver condo pre-sale absorption is unchanged from last year, but with a few caveats. Sales are significantly lower this time around, and so is inventory. Even more inventory has been delayed and throttled to get to this level. The market may actually be softer than absorption implies. Whether that matters depends on if developers can effectively control inventory longer than buyers wait.

https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouv ... y-delayed/
Screen Shot 2020-08-01 at 10.06.51 AM.png

Screen Shot 2020-08-01 at 10.05.51 AM.png

Statistics: Posted by news — Sat Aug 01, 2020 9:06 am